KAS Trading Journal

040508 2:55pm (GMT+8)

After several hours of study - I think I have found one simple system based on simple concept of Higher High and Lower Low. This is not Set and Forget System though - so I dont know whether I have time to demo or make it live with this. But because this is my journal, I would like to put it in writing so that can be reference to me later - If I want to trade using this method.

I call this method KAS UTS02 - Undisputable Trending System 02.

I use GJ 30m timeframe. Refer attachment, buy signal is where the cross of the Blue vertical line and the Horizontal line and the Sell signal (or close of the Buy) is the cross of the Red vertical line and the Red Horizontal line.

Let's start our journey. Refer attachment. It was 1st April 2008.

Look at the first 2 blue arrows upward. Both denote higher lows and the blue horizontal line is the point where the price break through the last swing high. That is our BUY point.

Then Look at the 2 red arrows downward. Both denote lower highs and the Red horizontal line is the point where we will close our trade, or our Sell Point.

Look pretty simple if we backtest as always.

Backtest 020408 :

Refer to attached chart - I dont have to explain further, except, If we do Sell at the cross of the Red lines, we better close if the price has breakthrough again our Sell lines (or if it is the BUY signal) - this will give us minimum loss. Then look for re-entry.

Look at the second chart. Using the same rule.

Backtest 030408 :


Referring to first chart, if we follow the rule, we will be break even or with minimal loss, but because the price has moved more than 80 pips to the first peak, we can opt to take profit when we see that the price is nearing our buy signal.

The second chart. Also the same explanation as above. If we follow the exact rule, we can have maximum profit and minimal loss, or if we bend the rule a bit, we can still catch some 20-50 pips.

Backtest 040408 :

Referring to attached charts, use the same explanation. I would like to see this system running in real live, but looking at this system, it 'looks' like we can make big profit, except, again - we have to watch the screen - something that I dont like and dont have the time.

More examples of Backtest :

Perhaps, the best advice is to look for significant different between the the 2 arrows (the blue and the red).

More examples of backtest :

Look for significant difference between the 2 blue arrows or the 2 red arrows for Entry Signal.

More backtest, I notice if we look for only significant difference between the 2 arrows, we will have less trade, less loss, minimum 1 trade per day, but with GJ, pips per day can be > 100 pips easily.

But, do I have the time, to find or to wait for the perfect setup - again, this has always been my problem - that's why I prefer Set and Forget System.

More backtest, 'looks' pretty easy..

More examples.

Interpret these 2 charts yourselves - so far, how many winning trades and how many losing trade do we have ?

If 'live' trading can be this simple all the time, everybody can be rich in no time, BUT, all these are just hypothetical - together with millions of other trading systems as well.

Again, to me, the big question - do I have the time to monitor the trade - at that particular moment where the signals trigger, can I be there on the screen ?

Current chart, let see tomorrow whether I can find the entry signal and perform trades based on these KAS UTS02 signals.

I guess ur using price action kind now..hight high and lower low stuff..

good luck!!


sonic

050508 9:48am (GMT+8)

KAS SNF03 :

Based on my backtest analysis, this system works best with GJ, GU, GBPCHF and USDCHF.

Have initiated pending orders on all those pairs only - let see the result for today.

KAS SNF04 :

Have initiated BBP - using the same rule.

KAS SNF02 :

When I opened the FLL = -375.

KAS UTS02 :

No trade open yet.

050508 10:05am (GMT+8)

KAS UTS02 :

First test of the system.
Put up Sell Entry at 207.83 with SL =-40 and TP = 20.
Let see what happen.

Attached is the chart showing why.

050508 4:02pm (GMT+8)

KAS UTS02 update :

Trade this morning hit SL with -40 pip.

Initiate new trade BUY at 208.23 with TP 20 and SL -40.

050508 6:42pm (GMT+8)

KAS UTS02 update :

Again, as expected, forward test always has different result as compared to backtest. Got Knock Out twice today with -40 and another -40 pip loss just now. The trade is not monitored just go in based on the signal, set tp and sl then AFPC.

Have initiated another SELL at 207.18 just now, now will monitor closely and will close manually, either profit or loss.

050508 10:47pm (GMT+8)

KAS UTS02 update :

Since I was AFPC, price hit the SL, again for another -40 pip loss (spike), but price did make profit level around 20 + pip.

Definitely this type of trading need to be CLOSELY monitored. Not good for me.

KAS SNF03 update :

P = +20+20-40 = 0 pip as attached.
FLL = -11 currently.

KAS SNF04 update :

Somehow the BOTH pending SELL orders for UC and EU did not trigger, but BOTH BUY UC and BUY EU has positive pips of 15 pip, so I took it and reinitiate another BBP. This trade will continue till tomorrow.

060508 1:09am (GMT+8)

KAS SNF02 update :

P = +211
L = -338

I have closed this trade since it takes so long to see the result.

KAS UTS02 :

Initiate a SELL entry at 206.78 with SL = -40 and TP = 20.

Refer attachment.
This is one good thing about forward testing, I think even have 3 straight loss on this method, I still have confidence with this trading system because we are always 'cool' during entry. Will test and observe the 'correct' pattern for best profitability trading.

060508 1:18am (GMT+8)

KAS UTS02 :

Initiate a BUY for GU at 1.9699 with TP 20 and SL -40.

060508 1:37am (GMT+8)

KAS SNF03 update :

P/L = -40 pip.

Refer attachment.
I still have confidence with this trading system - will continue test and measure.