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Gamblers 5 and 15 minute trading system

  • #141
  • Apr 28, 2008 12:18pm Apr 28, 2008 12:18pm
Quoting Tjpld
That's GBP/JPY. Thank god the EURO is not at 207 vs the Dollar.
That'd be something.
Sorry about that mistake.

Quoting Tjpld
I still use nothing more than T3, 5 EMA 8 SMA.
Your strategy seems simple enough to code into an EA. I read a post where Gambler wrote that he no longer trade his strategy because he doesn't have the time. It seems to me that this strategy lends itself to an EA where you run the EA and let her rip. You come back a few hours later and, voila, you've made a few bucks. It would be perfect for someone who has a job or someone whos normal sleep time is the London open. You could also run different EAs for different pairs that have more optimal times of the day. That would help out Gambler a lot too. PUH-LEAASE, somebody write an EA!

Heck, maybe I need to learn to write one myself.
  • #142
  • Apr 28, 2008 1:03pm Apr 28, 2008 1:03pm
Nope sorry you're being wrong. It's not an IF A -> B System.
I decide based on my feeling for the market and what I see.
Good angle and speration of the MAs etc. pp.

EAs suck. At least that's my opinion everyone who thinks he can run a program that'll be profitable year after year should think twice.
Of course it be nice to let the computer do the work and you earn money doing nothing. But I'm not that kind of guy that like to live in his dreams.
I like getting stuff done!
  • #143
  • Apr 29, 2008 3:39am Apr 29, 2008 3:39am
I agree - without very selective entries based on human discretion, this technique will lose
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #144
  • Apr 29, 2008 12:03pm Apr 29, 2008 12:03pm
Quoting Tjpld
Nope sorry you're being wrong. It's not an IF A -> B System.
I decide based on my feeling for the market and what I see.
Good angle and speration of the MAs etc. pp.

EAs suck. At least that's my opinion everyone who thinks he can run a program that'll be profitable year after year should think twice.
Of course it be nice to let the computer do the work and you earn money doing nothing. But I'm not that kind of guy that like to live in his dreams.
I like getting stuff done!
I'll admit I don't know enough about this system. I still need to go back and read through all the threads. I was just throwing out a suggestion. Obviously you feel strongly the other way. No problem there.
  • #145
  • Apr 29, 2008 2:37pm Apr 29, 2008 2:37pm
No harsh feelings.
Right now I'm taking fibs and pivots into perspective.
Maybe this will help making it more profitable.
  • #146
  • May 1, 2008 9:56am May 1, 2008 9:56am
Hi members at forexfactory. I have just found a new way to trade this system. Instead of trading at the 5m and 15m timeframe I am going to trade it at the daily timeframe. I will hold on to a position until I am in profit or until I get a signal in the opposite direction. When I get a signal in the opposite direction I will close the open position and open a new position with double lot size. I will keep on doubling the lot size every time I get a new signal until I am in profit. I have done a manual backtest at marketiva and it looks very profitable, and the drawdowns would not have been big.

I am going to start with 1000 virtual dollars and in about one month I will let you know how profitable the system is.
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #147
  • May 1, 2008 12:25pm May 1, 2008 12:25pm
Gambler,

I am looking forward to your results.

Cheers
  • #148
  • May 1, 2008 4:10pm May 1, 2008 4:10pm
Quoting Gambler180
I will keep on doubling the lot size every time I get a new signal until I am in profit. I have done a manual backtest at marketiva and it looks very profitable, and the drawdowns would not have been big.
Hi gambler - I promise you that you will lose your entire account doing this. You really havent backtested far enough. Draw downs using martingale on a losing streak are HUGE!! When you say profit, how much profit? given that you are risking the entire account on the first entry, closing trades as soon as you get a little profit is a poor investment. Think it through, How many times can you keep doubling your lot size? 5 losers will require you to take 36 times your starting lot size to take the next trade. !0 losers will require 1152 times your initial position size. To survive this you need such a tiny initial position size that the returns are less than bank interest
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  • #149
  • May 1, 2008 4:55pm May 1, 2008 4:55pm
Quoting Gambler180
Hi members at forexfactory. I have just found a new way to trade this system. Instead of trading at the 5m and 15m timeframe I am going to trade it at the daily timeframe. I will hold on to a position until I am in profit or until I get a signal in the opposite direction. When I get a signal in the opposite direction I will close the open position and open a new position with double lot size. I will keep on doubling the lot size every time I get a new signal until I am in profit. I have done a manual backtest at marketiva and it looks very profitable, and the drawdowns would not have been big.

I am going to start with 1000 virtual dollars and in about one month I will let you know how profitable the system is.

I believe this is doable and probably profitable since reversals on the daily chart are rare events. I have a question. Would close any trade in profit on a daily basis and enter new ones? or let the original order run? If you will let run, when do you take profit?
  • #150
  • May 2, 2008 8:44am May 2, 2008 8:44am
Every mathematical system that is based on luck will not be profitable on the long run. Doubeling up is a stupid idea. I think Alexander Elder discribed it in his book Trading for a Living. After 4-5 Losing Streaks you have lost twice the GDP of the entire world. ^^
  • #151
  • May 2, 2008 9:07am May 2, 2008 9:07am
Quoting Tjpld
Every mathematical system that is based on luck will not be profitable on the long run. Doubeling up is a stupid idea. I think Alexander Elder discribed it in his book Trading for a Living. After 4-5 Losing Streaks you have lost twice the GDP of the entire world. ^^
I'm going to prove that you and Alexander Elder are wrong. Today I have earned 59 pips ($5.58022)
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #152
  • May 2, 2008 9:22am May 2, 2008 9:22am
Quoting Gambler180
I'm going to prove that you and Alexander Elder are wrong. Today I have earned 59 pips ($5.58022)

Can you please respond to thread # 149

Thanks
  • #153
  • May 2, 2008 11:03am May 2, 2008 11:03am
Quoting aelimian
I believe this is doable and probably profitable since reversals on the daily chart are rare events. I have a question. Would close any trade in profit on a daily basis and enter new ones? or let the original order run? If you will let run, when do you take profit?
If I open an order and it is in profit at the end of the next day I will close it.
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #154
  • May 2, 2008 8:26pm May 2, 2008 8:26pm
Quoting Gambler180
If I open an order and it is in profit at the end of the next day I will close it.
Thank you very much. I am going to try this system. This might defeat the purpose. Do you have limits at which you will take profits earlier assuming one were to check on the trades during the day?
  • #155
  • May 3, 2008 6:54am May 3, 2008 6:54am
Quoting aelimian
Thank you very much. I am going to try this system. This might defeat the purpose. Do you have limits at which you will take profits earlier assuming one were to check on the trades during the day?
no
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #156
  • May 3, 2008 10:01am May 3, 2008 10:01am
Hey Gambler, nice thread. I'm only going to post once here as not to interfere much.

I use the same type of theory setup (small difference, but still based on higher high close or lower low close) on g/u and g/j, and it is very effective on the m15. And I'm making good pips with it. However, i have two filters -

1 - The highest probability trades are between 2 am est and 12 pm est. Consequently... that's when I trade. Which as Gambler said... you need volatility and this time tends to have good movement.


2 - The size of the candles and how far it has to go to give the setup.. on g/j. If the candle to show reveresal has to move 50 pips... there is no way I'm taking it.. that is too much risk for it to come back against me. If it has to move 20.... then were in business. This is do to the fact I use higher timeframe trends. So, if the m15 has already moved against the h1 trend for quite a bit of pips.. the chances are... it will not continue much longer and the h1 trend will then take over and reverse again in the oppposite direction.

There are a few other signals I use that keep me out of bad trades, but they are also really just dependent on the 2nd filter of the size/range needed for reversal which bring in other factors like higher timeframe movement.

I also use this on the h1 but only in very specific setups. H4... haven't had enough time to test it.

Nothing is for free guys... Use Gamblers setup... I haven't seen anything that is purely mechanical yet... use common sense and there is no substitute for screen time to learn market motion and correlate it to your system/setup.

Good luck guys.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #157
  • May 3, 2008 10:58am May 3, 2008 10:58am
GOOD ENOUGH TO USE THE STRATEGY AND MAKE MANY MONEY...

...BUT NOT 5 MIN/15 MIN...

THIS MONTH (APRIL)420 PIPS...!!!

BEST REGARDS

EAGLE

  • #158
  • May 3, 2008 11:15am May 3, 2008 11:15am
Quoting DireXiv

2 - The size of the candles and how far it has to go to give the setup.. on g/j. If the candle to show reveresal has to move 50 pips... there is no way I'm taking it.. that is too much risk for it to come back against me. If it has to move 20.... then were in business. This is do to the fact I use higher timeframe trends. So, if the m15 has already moved against the h1 trend for quite a bit of pips.. the chances are... it will not continue much longer and the h1 trend will then take over and reverse again in the oppposite direction.
That's a good idea but the size of the candles does not have much to say if you trade the daily candles as I do
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #159
  • May 3, 2008 11:33am May 3, 2008 11:33am
Quoting eagle
GOOD ENOUGH TO USE THE STRATEGY AND MAKE MANY MONEY...

...BUT NOT 5 MIN/15 MIN...

THIS MONTH (APRIL)420 PIPS...!!!

BEST REGARDS

EAGLE

What pairs and time frames do you usually trade ? Thanks.
  • #160
  • May 3, 2008 11:45am May 3, 2008 11:45am
This system works...

Though there are losing streaks, though more winning streaks and it is about MM and cutting your losses.

The only thing I am struggling is TP, I took a good 23 pips on GJ and it went upto 50pips... grrr... by the way I am live on this system... I took 'cable' and went to a meeting and came back and was up by 125 pips, which I closed out... and it hit 200 pips home run... grrr, again missed out.

You cannot beat price action!


Quoting LelioFX
What pairs and time frames do you usually trade ? Thanks.
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