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The Sixth Sense

  • #1
  • First Post: May 3, 2008 1:50am May 3, 2008 1:50am
This post is about the sixth sense: "your gut", or whatever else you may call it.

I wonder if other traders experience the feeling I'm talking about. I've only recently realized it more when I focus on a pair that is involved in the country I reside. So for instance, I am American, therefore I am more in touch with America, the economy, and FEELINGS of the country (I know what it feels like to be American). Could these feelings be my so called "gut"? I believe they are, and that is why they are accurate as often as they are. BTW, I only trade EUR/USD now because of this connection.

I think others feel the same way, but I'm not sure I've heard anyone say it like this. Your gut instincts are better when you live in a country that you trade.

Can anyone relate or am I just weird?

On the other side of the problem, we have the theory that living in a country and trading its currency may create a bias and cloud one's judgment. I'm sure there could be some that would think in this way.

My opinion is for the first part of the post, however.
  • #2
  • May 3, 2008 1:57am May 3, 2008 1:57am
Quoting kharvell
This post is about the sixth sense: "your gut", or whatever else you may call it.

I wonder if other traders experience the feeling I'm talking about. I've only recently realized it more when I focus on a pair that is involved in the country I reside. So for instance, I am American, therefore I am more in touch with America, the economy, and FEELINGS of the country (I know what it feels like to be American). Could these feelings be my so called "gut"? I believe they are, and that is why they are accurate as often as they are. BTW, I only trade EUR/USD now because of this connection.

I think others feel the same way, but I'm not sure I've heard anyone say it like this. Your gut instincts are better when you live in a country that you trade.

Can anyone relate or am I just weird?

On the other side of the problem, we have the theory that living in a country and trading its currency may create a bias and cloud one's judgment. I'm sure there could be some that would think in this way.

My opinion is for the first part of the post, however.

I get them but i don't listen to them.

I used to but they made just as many screw ups as helpful out comes. Now I only follow my system i don't argue i just do wheter i win or lose means nothing. I try to be as robotic as possible.
  • #3
  • May 3, 2008 2:20am May 3, 2008 2:20am
Alexander Elder said in some of his books "Until you've had a few years of profitable trading experience you haven't earned the right to a gut feeling."

The "gut" is usually wrong, statistically. The more emotional a trader is the worse the trader trades. I think defined rules help w/ this, you pull the trigger when the rules say so... less worry.

With that said the charts are usually a reflection of the anxiety or euphoria of the economy... especially in a sensitive market (sensitivity is cyclical it seems). Since we're all exposed to generally the same news media... it makes sense that we can "feel" the anxiety or euphoria level, which can give us an insight as to the mood of the market. But I suspect that connection only lasts when a market is changing... from bull to bear, or bear to bull, and as the media gets distracted to other things... it tends to break.

The EUR/USD is an easy pair to predict right now on the long-term. Basic economic outlook: USD getting stronger, ECB worried about stagflation where it might be forced to cut interest rates, fundes 101. But I think it'd be dangerous to trade on that assumption over time.
  • #4
  • May 3, 2008 4:56am May 3, 2008 4:56am
This is stupidity. holy stupidity
  • #5
  • May 3, 2008 7:14am May 3, 2008 7:14am
So you say, but if you sit and read tape for a while you'll start to "feel" certain patterns that are quite tradeable.
  • #6
  • May 3, 2008 9:31am May 3, 2008 9:31am
Quoting Rabid
Alexander Elder said in some of his books "Until you've had a few years of profitable trading experience you haven't earned the right to a gut feeling."

The "gut" is usually wrong, statistically. The more emotional a trader is the worse the trader trades. I think defined rules help w/ this, you pull the trigger when the rules say so... less worry.

With that said the charts are usually a reflection of the anxiety or euphoria of the economy... especially in a sensitive market (sensitivity is cyclical it seems). Since we're all exposed to generally the same news media... it makes sense that we can "feel" the anxiety or euphoria level, which can give us an insight as to the mood of the market. But I suspect that connection only lasts when a market is changing... from bull to bear, or bear to bull, and as the media gets distracted to other things... it tends to break.

The EUR/USD is an easy pair to predict right now on the long-term. Basic economic outlook: USD getting stronger, ECB worried about stagflation where it might be forced to cut interest rates, fundes 101. But I think it'd be dangerous to trade on that assumption over time.
I think you are right. A gut feeling is not to be relied on solely, and this is not the point of my post. There have been times however where the pair could go either way and I called that USA would be recovering way before it started happening. I don't think I'm a forex superhero or anything. The only time I act on these feelings are in my high risk account where I have the option to trade however I want for curiosity's sake.

You could just be right that EUR/USD is easy to predict now, but when it was lingering near 1.6000, I knew it was starting to push limits. Maybe my past experiences as a trader have made me.

Always enjoy your posts, Rabid. Do you have 1K trades? You got my vouch if so.

Quoting Ceco-Ku4ev
This is stupidity. holy stupidity
The only thing stupid here is that I had to waste my time reading your post. The nice thing about it though was that I had a chance to read the rest of your 36 posts, and got to realize your opinion is pretty worthless.

Thanks,

Kevin
  • #7
  • May 3, 2008 10:49am May 3, 2008 10:49am
I understand what you're saying here Kevin.

In my own term I call it subconsciousness giving you clues. Remember all the data your mind is consuming i.e one tradingday. Much is forgotten but not by your subconsciousness.

I agree on the statement "Until you've had a few years of profitable trading experience you haven't earned the right to a gut feeling."

I wouldn't trust many "signs" my mind gives me since it doesn't fit well with my trading-approach. I have worked hard to lock out any feelings during trading so I think it would be a little set-back at this stage to allow any other insights than my charts.

But this might change during many, many years participating in this market.
Aks me in 10 years
In best case, a gut-feeling (read subconsciousness giving you clue) to prevent opening a position would be an nice edge, IMO.

I'm sharing this experience, which I don't think is too OT in this thread and since it Saturday lol ;

I once analyzed gbp/jpy and concluded that the probability for long position was heavily in favor. Long position was taken, and few seconds later I got this extreme confidence that price was going to explode to the upside. I had never had this (strong) feeling before while trading so I got anxious on what the hell was going on in my mind. My mind/feelings was screaming to increase my position but I refused of course to do so (since I don't base/increase/decrease any trade based on feelings/believes etc). Also I didn't know if this gut-telling was objective since I already was in a trade. Cliché as it sound, few seconds later price exploded to the upside.

So could the question be; Was my subconscious aware of something I didn't "notice" ? Must would say luck, and I guess me arguing against would be pointless. Hell if I know, and I doubt I ever got any answer but it surly was 1 strange experience.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #8
  • May 4, 2008 11:17pm May 4, 2008 11:17pm
Gut, intuition, luck - all related to the old saying "The harder I work, the luckier I get."
  • #9
  • May 5, 2008 1:15am May 5, 2008 1:15am
Quoting kharvell
I think you are right. A gut feeling is not to be relied on solely, and this is not the point of my post. There have been times however where the pair could go either way and I called that USA would be recovering way before it started happening. I don't think I'm a forex superhero or anything. The only time I act on these feelings are in my high risk account where I have the option to trade however I want for curiosity's sake.

You could just be right that EUR/USD is easy to predict now, but when it was lingering near 1.6000, I knew it was starting to push limits. Maybe my past experiences as a trader have made me.

Always enjoy your posts, Rabid. Do you have 1K trades? You got my vouch if so.



The only thing stupid here is that I had to waste my time reading your post. The nice thing about it though was that I had a chance to read the rest of your 36 posts, and got to realize your opinion is pretty worthless.

Thanks,

Kevin
I had the same feeling just before it touched 1.6, and I've only been researching investments in general since September (given, very heavilly!) ... so don't get TOO high on your horse

I think it's something that comes with experience just like serving a ball into the right part of the court, or singing a beautiful legato phrase....at first there will be all these new sensations that feel like gut reactions, when really it's just your body adjusting.

After some time of consistancy, you begin to understand your body. Same thing goes with mental endeavours such as this.
  • #10
  • May 5, 2008 2:17am May 5, 2008 2:17am
i believe this acumen usually develops in short term day traders faster than long term traders.

As day traders certain patterns tends to become obvious as we accumulate our daily experience. And as it occurs the gut feeling will start to kick in. Take it as an advantage, coz the rules always remains the same, cut the loss if ur wrong, i dont undertand why one would wanna wait for confirmations/signals, let the noobs to that, the experienced traders usually leads the pack.

For example when we see a double top 'forming' or reaching certain price levels. Usually id short the hell off the bugger, who needs to confirm? If i can get it at the top, id go for it man, someone has to have the balls to do it, yes? The only confirmation that my guts were wrong is when the fella decides to do a breakout instead.

Guts and gut feeling. Anyway im not sure if pattern recognition is deemed as gut feeling. But there are days, where i do feel that im 'in tune' with the market. You know like singing a song, u rhythm sways and and your lyrics perfect, whatever you touch turns to gold at that period. lol
  • #11
  • May 5, 2008 3:01am May 5, 2008 3:01am
Once my intuition told me the lowest price for a day i opened chart there was exactly THAT price i entered and made couple of nice pips

I think it's not your country that important, but pair you watch all the time while trading.

Each of them have its own "habits" and some of them you follow unconsiously [good pronounciation?].
So I would trust some of intuitive thoughts, but it's really hard to free them from emotions.
  • #12
  • May 5, 2008 8:49pm May 5, 2008 8:49pm
Hehe, Kevo, watch your 100$ account, sell your great systems, continue posting bullsh*t (a.k.a "systems", "rules" etc.)

You are the same loser as the other system-selling puppets. The only thing I could donate you is a kick in your arse, your posting-bullshit-arse. And the "working system" for 39$ ... holy Cow, go learn your Grandma trade FX ...
  • #13
  • May 5, 2008 8:54pm May 5, 2008 8:54pm
Quoting Ceco-Ku4ev
Hehe, Kevo, watch your 100$ account, sell your great systems, continue posting bullsh*t (a.k.a "systems", "rules" etc.)

You are the same loser as the other system-selling puppets. The only thing I could donate you is a kick in your arse, your posting-bullshit-arse. And the "working system" for 39$ ... holy Cow, go learn your Grandma trade FX ...
Yeah, I charge for my intellectual capital, but here's a free tip: keep your emotions in check.
  • #14
  • May 5, 2008 9:07pm May 5, 2008 9:07pm
Short term, I trade the charts, because they never, ever lie

I do agree though, the more experience you have with a pair, the more correct your gut feeling are going to be. It's still emotion however, so I try to back it up with the charts before jumping in.

Smart dude called Jacko once said something along the lines of:

If the price is hanging around support/resistance like a dag on a sheep's arse, it will break in the other direction.

Daily EUR/USD proved this, hung around 1.60 for a while then broke down.

Million $$$ question is how far will she go??

Not convinced the the US is out of the woods yet. Break below 1.50 would help. A good month or so of consistent good news would also help.

But what would I know, I'm just an Aussie larrikin.
  • #15
  • May 6, 2008 1:19am May 6, 2008 1:19am
this market and all markets are moved by one thing; people. people are creatures of habit. they do the same things over and over. your gut feeling is the realization(perception) that the "habit" is once again repeating itself.
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #16
  • May 6, 2008 1:28am May 6, 2008 1:28am
Quoting Kaligula
Once my intuition told me the lowest price for a day i opened chart there was exactly THAT price i entered and made couple of nice pips

I think it's not your country that important, but pair you watch all the time while trading.

Each of them have its own "habits" and some of them you follow unconsciously [good pronunciation?].
So I would trust some of intuitive thoughts, but it's really hard to free them from emotions.
fully agree with you
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #17
  • Last Post: May 6, 2008 1:35am May 6, 2008 1:35am
Quoting itechdev
Short term, I trade the charts, because they never, ever lie

I do agree though, the more experience you have with a pair, the more correct your gut feeling are going to be. It's still emotion however, so I try to back it up with the charts before jumping in.

Smart dude called Jacko once said something along the lines of:

If the price is hanging around support/resistance like a dag on a sheep's arse, it will break in the other direction.

Daily EUR/USD proved this, hung around 1.60 for a while then broke down.

Million $$$ question is how far will she go??

Not convinced the the US is out of the woods yet. Break below 1.50 would help. A good month or so of consistent good news would also help.

But what would I know, I'm just an Aussie larrikin.
Jacko is looking for one more push down before a big buy order. I am learning patience from him.
I have a small account where I am trading my own discretionary trades and I am learning that I am overtrading.
I am waiting for Jackos target before I trade in my main account.

I AM BECOMING AN AWESOME TRADER
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