Interesting Read
http://www.actionforex.com/fundament...2008050244664/
The Jobs' Report The Jobs' Report
Here we are again, watching the U.S. economy closely, after some considerable gains for the dollar that I don't actually see a proper interpretation for, today the labor department's jobs report will again set markets on the right track, and clear things up for dollar trends.
Today; the U.S. jobs report will be the judge on markets, how market reacted after the FOMC decision and statement will be under the microscope today, and the expectations for the next FOMC decision will start to get shaped as the labor status comes up for April.
The U.S. economy shed 70,000 jobs in April after shedding 80,000 jobs in March according to analysts' estimates, while unemployment rate climbed to 5.2% after 5.1%, and the average hourly earnings grew steadily by 0.3%, confirming that the jobs market is still tight and carries a lot of defaults for the economy in the future, from spending to sales and production.
The first clue on the jobs report was the Auto Data Processing (ADP) Report, where report showed that the private sector in the economy added 10,000 jobs in April, while it was expected to drop by 50, thousands jobs, but anyway we all know by now that ADP report is not that reliable when reflecting the jobs market status, so it did not change any of the forecasts on the jobs report.
Yesterday carried the rest of the signs, as jobless climbed to 380K last week, while the four-week moving average of new claims, a more dependable sign for the labor trends because it irons out weekly fluctuations, fell last week to 363,750 from a revised 370,250. Continuing claims rose 74,000 to 3.02 million marking the highest reading since April 2004.
And eventually; the ISM employment index fell to 45.4 in April after 49.2 in March; that was for manufacturing, while most of jobs losses supposedly hap-pened in the services sectors, which might give us a hint that the labor status is not that bright.
The greenback gained heavily against all majors after the release of the FOMC statement on Wednesday, some might believe that the feds turned hawkish in their language in a way or another, but the way I see it, no one has turned hawk-ish yet, and nobody will anytime soon, we need to see an improvement in the economy, in the actual growth levels, we need to see the economy actually es-caping recession, then we can say that it is time for the fed to turn hawkish and starts thinking about inflation levels.
The estimates ranged for the nonfarm payrolls between shedding 150K according to the most pessimist analysts, and shedding 18K by the most optimists, and anything outside that range will be a major market mover today, and will defi-nitely give a sharp trend for the greenback, and will affect the odds for the next rate decision.
And lets not forget dear reader that today is the last day in the week, with major economical fundamentals on the wait, so after that comes out, there is nothing can hold investors from moving markets in crazy directions trying to take their profits and square their positions, so be careful and pay attention after the news.
That is it for today, now let's start preparing for where the U.S. economy ship will take us, or is it just going to sink before we can reach anywhere…
Gooooooooood Morning =
http://www.actionforex.com/fundament...2008050244664/
The Jobs' Report The Jobs' Report
Here we are again, watching the U.S. economy closely, after some considerable gains for the dollar that I don't actually see a proper interpretation for, today the labor department's jobs report will again set markets on the right track, and clear things up for dollar trends.
Today; the U.S. jobs report will be the judge on markets, how market reacted after the FOMC decision and statement will be under the microscope today, and the expectations for the next FOMC decision will start to get shaped as the labor status comes up for April.
The U.S. economy shed 70,000 jobs in April after shedding 80,000 jobs in March according to analysts' estimates, while unemployment rate climbed to 5.2% after 5.1%, and the average hourly earnings grew steadily by 0.3%, confirming that the jobs market is still tight and carries a lot of defaults for the economy in the future, from spending to sales and production.
The first clue on the jobs report was the Auto Data Processing (ADP) Report, where report showed that the private sector in the economy added 10,000 jobs in April, while it was expected to drop by 50, thousands jobs, but anyway we all know by now that ADP report is not that reliable when reflecting the jobs market status, so it did not change any of the forecasts on the jobs report.
Yesterday carried the rest of the signs, as jobless climbed to 380K last week, while the four-week moving average of new claims, a more dependable sign for the labor trends because it irons out weekly fluctuations, fell last week to 363,750 from a revised 370,250. Continuing claims rose 74,000 to 3.02 million marking the highest reading since April 2004.
And eventually; the ISM employment index fell to 45.4 in April after 49.2 in March; that was for manufacturing, while most of jobs losses supposedly hap-pened in the services sectors, which might give us a hint that the labor status is not that bright.
The greenback gained heavily against all majors after the release of the FOMC statement on Wednesday, some might believe that the feds turned hawkish in their language in a way or another, but the way I see it, no one has turned hawk-ish yet, and nobody will anytime soon, we need to see an improvement in the economy, in the actual growth levels, we need to see the economy actually es-caping recession, then we can say that it is time for the fed to turn hawkish and starts thinking about inflation levels.
The estimates ranged for the nonfarm payrolls between shedding 150K according to the most pessimist analysts, and shedding 18K by the most optimists, and anything outside that range will be a major market mover today, and will defi-nitely give a sharp trend for the greenback, and will affect the odds for the next rate decision.
And lets not forget dear reader that today is the last day in the week, with major economical fundamentals on the wait, so after that comes out, there is nothing can hold investors from moving markets in crazy directions trying to take their profits and square their positions, so be careful and pay attention after the news.
That is it for today, now let's start preparing for where the U.S. economy ship will take us, or is it just going to sink before we can reach anywhere…
Gooooooooood Morning =
:
I'm waiting till after news to trade though.
