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  • #101
  • Apr 29, 2008 4:21am Apr 29, 2008 4:21am
Quoting static
Any PA traders willing to jump on this pin bar?? It is on historical support. Personally I would have to see at least 4HR pin before I would even consider taking a trade at this level.

In addition, since Friday's low was just taken out, I am expecting more downside. We are still seeing lower highs and lower lows on the 4HR chart.
I don't think it is out of the question to see another 100 pip + push upwards though.

I am feeling really good staying out and watching this unfold.
Hey Static,

I think the Market itself has turned into a Newbie and doesn't know if it wants to long or short, but keeps jumping up and down scalping itself.

Who knows what will happen. I personally would mind it to drop another 200 - 300 pips before seeing it go north, way north as that is the only way I trade (long with the major trend)

Cheers,

K8
  • #102
  • Apr 29, 2008 9:03am Apr 29, 2008 9:03am
Quoting Khornate8
Hey Static,

I think the Market itself has turned into a Newbie and doesn't know if it wants to long or short, but keeps jumping up and down scalping itself.

Who knows what will happen. I personally would mind it to drop another 200 - 300 pips before seeing it go north, way north as that is the only way I trade (long with the major trend)

Cheers,

K8
Hey Khornate,

I would love to see a couple hundred pips shaved off the Euro. I would feel much more comfortable buying at around 1.5400.

That being said, it seems like the correction should be longer. Maybe long enough to take us to 1.5150?? I get the feeling that the ECB has succeeded in convincing everyone that the bull is going to take a break for a bit. Then again I could be totally wrong.

I am running under the assumption that we will see at least two weeks of correction. I have worked it out that I am willing to take a maximum of 2 positions in that time if the market continues correction. Read: I am only willing to leave 1 (maaaaybe 2) soldiers behind.

Ohh look, market is challenging 1.5600 from below. About to prove me wrong I'm sure!!
  • #103
  • May 1, 2008 12:49am May 1, 2008 12:49am
Static,

Congrats on this very nice journal. I just kind of stumbled upon it and read it from beginning to end.

I agree that recording your thoughts and trades is a healthy way to stay honest. And it provides you with the ability to really see what's working and what is not.

Good Luck and Good Trading,

Sean
  • #104
  • May 1, 2008 4:35am May 1, 2008 4:35am
I have been really enjoying Zoopy's journal as he has been dealing with the question "How do we know when the trend has changed/resumed?". His approach is very easy to follow, and I believe, very powerful.

I want to post this article by Martin Pring, I can't remember how I came across it... it was along time ago, google I think... but it deals with the same stuff anyhow.

For anyone who's interested it's attached....
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Peaks_and_Troughs_Pring.pdf   181 KB | 286 downloads
  • #105
  • May 1, 2008 1:18pm May 1, 2008 1:18pm
Well waiting is paying off, there is a sea of red out there.

With regards to my interesting 1.5400, I am thinking that it still seems like the market has too much downside momentum. With this momentum and NFP tomorrow going long would be a pure gamble.

I am done for the week.

Given the strength of the last push down and the constant sagging of the market I would need to see a good daily reversal (pin bar/outside bar) at 1.5400 to take a long trade. If we don't get a reversal, I am waiting for the daily trandline or just above it at the daily 50% fib retrace (around 1.5200 - 1.5150)

We have only been correcting for 7 days. Doesn't seem like long enough, maybe another seven??

This is irrelevant, but, in the spirit of getting a feel for this market, I think we will see a push up to the 1.5550 - 1.6000 area but the market will continue to make new lows.

I think I'll go out and spend some of the money I've been making by not going long.
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  • #106
  • May 1, 2008 1:40pm May 1, 2008 1:40pm
Quoting static
I have been really enjoying Zoopy's journal as he has been dealing with the question "How do we know when the trend has changed/resumed?". His approach is very easy to follow, and I believe, very powerful.

I want to post this article by Martin Pring, I can't remember how I came across it... it was along time ago, google I think... but it deals with the same stuff anyhow.

For anyone who's interested it's attached....

Thanks for the attachment Static. Just took a look at it and that's pretty much it. Although they still make it seem harder than it really is lol.
  • #107
  • Edited 2:21am May 2, 2008 2:07am | Edited 2:21am
Quoting zoopy

Thanks for the attachment Static. Just took a look at it and that's pretty much it. Although they still make it seem harder than it really is lol.

Yeah thats true, the one thing I do like about it though is the distinction between a full signal and a half signal. If the wave, as you call it, after breaking a high or low comes back into the previous one that it broke then it is possible we are seeing a larger time frame consolidation. But if we are seeing large pushes followed by fairly shallow pullbacks (not breaking back into the "old" wave) then this is a better signal.

If you are using good PA setups to enter, I would say that the distinction probably doesn't matter much as the probabilities would still be in your favour.
  • #108
  • May 2, 2008 6:11am May 2, 2008 6:11am
Quoting static
Yeah thats true, the one thing I do like about it though is the distinction between a full signal and a half signal. If the wave, as you call it, after breaking a high or low comes back into the previous one that it broke then it is possible we are seeing a larger time frame consolidation. But if we are seeing large pushes followed by fairly shallow pullbacks (not breaking back into the "old" wave) then this is a better signal.

If you are using good PA setups to enter, I would say that the distinction probably doesn't matter much as the probabilities would still be in your favour.
Never really thought about it that way but yes that's true too. There are a few things I like about this approach. The main one is that you're learning to be "in tune" with the market. Once you learn, you're also able to adapt and that to me is the most important thing. If you aren't able to adapt when market conditions change, you will become the "beast's" next meal. The other neat thing about this approach, I'm not sure if you've done this yet but pull up any chart and go as far back as you can. I went back to 1977 on my cable daily chart and the same analysis applies then as it does now. The reason why it works is simple. As long as there are waves it will work, therefore it will work on all markets since all markets have waves.
  • #109
  • May 5, 2008 12:07pm May 5, 2008 12:07pm
Hmm,

Price is looking stronger than I expected actually.

For some reason I figured it would zip right down to 1.5200, I would buy 1000 standard lots and the market would shoot straight to 1.6000 and beyond and I could retire. Then I woke up and realized I was just daydreaming watching the market drift around.

Price is sitting right on a 4HR descending trendline, but the PA suggests more upside potential is possible. We have an outside bar, and if that breaks to the upside I would expect we'll see 1.5580-15600 soon. Not to mention, the last time we saw a dip to this area there was a 450 pip push upwards.

I am not willing to buy yet, as I said before market just seems to be drifting around aimlessly.

I am hoping to see 1.5150, which would be a major 50% retrace on my chart.
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  • #110
  • May 6, 2008 9:48am May 6, 2008 9:48am
Well I suppose I have the benefit of hindsight. But, had I followed my original plan I would have been up 100 pips right now.

I suppose my reasons for staying out were valid, but I am slightly annoyed I didn't pick up the 100 or so odd pips.

That being said, it looks like the 1.5580 area is providing the resistance that I expected. If this area holds we will see further downside.

I am staying out until market breaches 1.5650, or pushes lower.
  • #111
  • Edited 2:44pm May 6, 2008 2:30pm | Edited 2:44pm
This is what I like to see when I am waiting for a retrace.

Hopefully this Pinbar has some oommppff so we can drive this sucker down a bit. The pinbar is sitting right on a descending 4HR trendline and is near the 50% retrace from what I am taking to be the last swing high to swing low. See attached chart....

Oil is so high, I think that's what is causing the EUR strength / Dollar Weakness. If the oil run subsides, I am looking for one last dive in EUR/USD before it resumes the uptrend (hopefully).

Because price was rejected so strongly around the 1.5580 level, we should see it fall back down to AT LEAST 1.5400 again very soon.
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  • #112
  • May 7, 2008 8:32am May 7, 2008 8:32am
Quoting static
Because price was rejected so strongly around the 1.5580 level, we should see it fall back down to AT LEAST 1.5400 again very soon.
Should have shorted haha

This looks like it will break 1.5400 in no time. I have seen some traders attempting to go long here.... I would be very careful, this time we may not see such a forgiving bounce.

We have now been correcting for 11 days. Can we get 3 more days of correction out of it??? I am assuming that we will get a push down if Trichet cuts the Hawkish tone. After that it should be a good time to buy.

We will see.

I feel like I am getting a better feel for where price is headed, at least in the medium term. I am not an expert at fundamentals, but I often wonder how beneficial it is to become heavily involved in fundamental analysis. I can see the benefit of paying attention to general market sentiment... ie. what are all the good financial news sources saying... what is the general impression.... from my perspective now it seems that this, combined with a solid technical approach (ie. following the trend) is enough to make some serious money.
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  • #113
  • May 7, 2008 10:20am May 7, 2008 10:20am
Ok, I have placed an order.

I am expecting to buy some place between 1.5200 and 1.5150.

As you can see on the chart this is just below the major 50% fib retracement. This level also corresponds with a somewhat undefined area of S/R. There were three or four days back in early march that bounced from this area. By the time the market makes it to this level, I think we should have been correcting for about 14 days. Two weeks is a good amount of correction, maybe time for a little upside.

Also, from observing some other correction which came from all-time highs I have see more than a few instances where the market made it down to the 50% of the last major move and poked through by about 30 or 40 pips, then resumed the uptrend. I think when the corrections are large, the market is more difficult to turn around, as a consequence the larger fib retracements tend to be relatively "softer" areas of support.

I am operating under the assumption that we will make it down to those levels within the next three days. I am also assuming that we will not lose the weekly trendline plotted on my chart. If those assumptions hold then I think a buy at 1.5150 would be a steal, I will take this trade with no confirming price action with a 100 pip TSL. So, just to clarify.

<font color="Red">I have placed a buy limit order at 1.5150.<font color="Black">

However, if I see a strong reversal around 1.5200 and I don't feel there will be another push down ( if we see a nice Pinbar or Bullish outside bar) then I will reevaluate.

Even if we see the market make it all the way to the trendline my AH should put me back in at a good price. Hopefully on the way up!!!

I have even placed a little trampoline on my chart to give price a little help.
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  • #114
  • Edited 10:16pm May 7, 2008 10:31am | Edited 10:16pm
Ok, I have placed an order.

I am expecting to buy some place between 1.5200 and 1.5150.

As you can see on the chart the 1.5150 area is just below the major 50% fib retracement. This level also corresponds with a somewhat undefined area of S/R. There were three or four days back in early march that bounced from this area. By the time the market makes it to this level, I think we should have been correcting for about 14 days. Two weeks is a good amount of correction, maybe time for a little upside.

Also, from observing some other correction which came from all-time highs I have see more than a few instances where the market made it down to the 50% of the last major move and poked through by about 30 or 40 pips, then resumed the uptrend. I think when the corrections are large, the market is more difficult to turn around, as a consequence the larger fib retracements tend to be relatively "softer" areas of support.

I am operating under the assumption that we will make it down to those levels within the next three days. I am also assuming that we will not lose the weekly trendline plotted on my chart. If those assumptions hold then I think a buy at 1.5150 would be a steal, I will take this trade with no confirming price action with a 100 pip TSL. So, just to clarify.

I have placed a buy limit order at 1.5150 with a 100 pip TSL.

However, if I see a strong reversal around 1.5200 and I don't feel there will be another push down ( if we see a nice Pinbar or Bullish outside bar) then I will reevaluate.

Even if we see the market make it all the way to the trendline my AH should put me back in at a good price. Hopefully on the way up!!!

I have even placed a little trampoline on my chart to help price bounce off of that level.


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  • #115
  • May 7, 2008 11:05pm May 7, 2008 11:05pm
Nice, good luck to our trades.
Still waters run deep
  • #116
  • May 8, 2008 4:26am May 8, 2008 4:26am
Nice thread.

Can you explain your use of:
1) Pin Bar - what are its defining characteristics and how do you interpret its signal
[you presumably interpret this as some sort of exhaustion spike and signalling a price reversal...]
2) BeOB or BuOB - what are its defining characteristics and how do you interpret its signal
[again, presumably a reversal signal...]
  • #117
  • May 9, 2008 4:51am May 9, 2008 4:51am
Whos in for the ride at 1.5450?

Market now at 1.5470

We saw run ups of over 200 pips as retraces.
this run up is now 202 pips retrace yet. So we did
not witness anything extreme. Thought trichets
comments might have awaken the bulls, what i'm afraid
off, but overall, I still have a strong trendline at
1.5500, 1H 200 SMA is also at 1.5500 area.
So before I would consider to go long, I would wait
for 1.5500 to be broken hard, and buy the market on a
retrace or even better when it comes back to test 1.5500 area . That would confirm to me that the down moveis over.
I think 1.5500 will hold and we'll see prices bellow
1.5200 to come.
  • #118
  • May 9, 2008 7:52am May 9, 2008 7:52am
Quoting rnl16616
Nice thread.

Can you explain your use of:
1) Pin Bar - what are its defining characteristics and how do you interpret its signal
[you presumably interpret this as some sort of exhaustion spike and signalling a price reversal...]
2) BeOB or BuOB - what are its defining characteristics and how do you interpret its signal
[again, presumably a reversal signal...]
Hello Rnl,

I could explain it to you, but you would probably still have some further questions. These are not my concepts, in fact they are quite "classic" reversal setups and are known by many different names.

Check out the link out at the bottom of this page.
Trust me, if you want to gain some simple but very powerful tools for trading in any market visit this thread!!!

Then come back and visit and when I mention those bars you will know why!

Cheers!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331
  • #119
  • May 9, 2008 8:15am May 9, 2008 8:15am
An interesting situation.

1.5400 has held up for 5 or 6 days now.

As you can see from the chart we got a Daily pinbar yesterday. (Red arrow) The bar is on a newly forming daily PPZ (area of s/r denoted by the red line), and a major 38.2% fib retracement.

This has got me thinking that if this market is going to hit 1.5200-1.5150, then it will see 1.5500-1.5600 first. Maybe this will be the bottom... who knows. The market has become more volatile, which usually means it's nearing a bottom.

The daily pinbar has convinced me to take a trade...

I bought at 1.4550 with a 100 pip TSL.

If I was trading this only according to the pinbar, I would require a stop below the low of the bar, however, my 100 pip TSL will have to do.

As I write this, I see I could have gotten a much better price, but hey, thats the price you pay not sitting at the screen all day.

I still have an order at 1.5150 should it still make it there. If this trade is stopped out for a loss, I will not be placing any more trades until 1.5150, or we are clearly again in an uptrend.

This trade is aggressive, no doubt, but I feel the risk is justified.
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  • #120
  • May 9, 2008 8:42am May 9, 2008 8:42am
I bought in half position at buy limit at 1.5440. Bearish Trendline on 15 min chart was pressuring market to move lower so I thought if it goes to 1.5450 it might was well go lower because 1H bullish trenline was around 1.5430. The bearish trendline on 15 min chart is still presuring market lower but bullishish 1 H trendline will coolide soon and we'll see some movement. I'm waiting for market to brake that short time frame bearish trendline and I'll enter another half of my position.
This trade doesn't feel sure to me as I still feel we will see 1.5200's , so I'm taking very carefull strategy to buy this market now.
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