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Need help to code my strategy idea...

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  • After visiting the links in this thread, what did you think of my idea?
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  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 5:53pm Apr 27, 2008 5:41pm | Edited 5:53pm
Hello all traders. I have gained some experience in trading and now look to have my own method. It is a method where there would be almost no risk but high reward could be expected. Not only that, but it is also as simple as any method could possibly be.

I would like to know if you can find someone who is good at creating codes for indicators and such things. I have an idea that I think would benefit myself and all others who trade. Please visit this link and read in order to get an idea of what I am trying to do and what I am needing to accomplish that goal:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=809

__________________________________________________________

Also follow up info is given at these locations:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=816

then here...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1955197&postcount=82 0

Thank you very much for your time and attention...

bcam360
  • #2
  • Apr 27, 2008 5:43pm Apr 27, 2008 5:43pm
The first two links are dead...
  • #3
  • Apr 27, 2008 5:48pm Apr 27, 2008 5:48pm
Hyperlinked to abbreviated addresses and not full...

Quoting bcam360
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=809


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=816


bcam360
  • #4
  • Apr 27, 2008 6:08pm Apr 27, 2008 6:08pm
Hello all... The links have been fixed now... try them again...
  • #5
  • Apr 27, 2008 6:14pm Apr 27, 2008 6:14pm
Please visit this link and read in order to get an idea of what I am trying to do and what I am needing to accomplish that goal:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=809



Also follow up info is given at these locations:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=816

then here...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=82%200
  • #6
  • Apr 27, 2008 6:51pm Apr 27, 2008 6:51pm
Quoting bcam360
It is a method where there would be almost no risk but high reward could be expected.
You've already lost me. Sorry. When I hear those words I run the other way.

But I'll say this. It's not really a new idea. I've seen it before in various incarnations. The markets aren't going to crack that easily, sorry to say. The problem that this ignores is one of a defined risk/reward. Just knowing what is typical is not going to guarantee that the loses will not swamp the winners. The fact is that I trade in a style similar to this but it involves dynamic understanding of reward and risk when price moves. This type of simple approach you mention is going to work great sometime and then whip you to death at others. Building a system on means or medians is a losing game in a world where markets change.
  • #7
  • Apr 27, 2008 7:55pm Apr 27, 2008 7:55pm
Ok... tnx for the input. Even though I can understand your argument, I am still hopeful that I can prove you wrong Only time will tell...
  • #8
  • Apr 27, 2008 8:15pm Apr 27, 2008 8:15pm
If you don't mind neverfox, would u pls send me your method so i can learn more? Thank you...
  • #9
  • Apr 27, 2008 8:22pm Apr 27, 2008 8:22pm
Hey Bcam,

I was skimming over your posts, and it looks like this system is more or less a market straddle-type system. Am I close?

This shouldn't be too hard to code, and I'll code what I can for free provided the EA is released here for free on the forums.

The only thing I'll need from you are specific trading guidelines. What should the EA do and how should it do it?
  • #10
  • Apr 27, 2008 10:21pm Apr 27, 2008 10:21pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
Hey Bcam,

I was skimming over your posts, and it looks like this system is more or less a market straddle-type system. Am I close?

This shouldn't be too hard to code, and I'll code what I can for free provided the EA is released here for free on the forums.

The only thing I'll need from you are specific trading guidelines. What should the EA do and how should it do it?
Thanks so much for the offer Ronald... I will send you a message or email soon with all that detail.
  • #11
  • Apr 28, 2008 10:41am Apr 28, 2008 10:41am
Originally Posted by Ronald Raygun http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hey Bcam,

I was skimming over your posts, and it looks like this system is more or less a market straddle-type system. Am I close?

This shouldn't be too hard to code, and I'll code what I can for free provided the EA is released here for free on the forums.

The only thing I'll need from you are specific trading guidelines. What should the EA do and how should it do it?


Hello again Ronald. Thank you for considering my request. I will get right to the details and explain the best way I can:

First of all, I will be using daily charts and gathering info about candlesticks from the chart in order to do calculations from an Excel spreadsheet. I have attached that spreadsheet above so that you can take a look. I will be looking at candlesticks on my charts and taking the Open, Close, High, and Low and I will enter the values for each candlestick onto my spreadsheet. The spreadsheet will then give me info about how far I can expect the market to move away from the open before there is a good chance that it has found it's primary direction of movement for the day.

It does this by measuring the distance between the open and high / low and gives a value under the Nearest Diff Amount column. Essentially, if the bar closed in a buy for the day, then it will measure the distance between the open and the Low. If the bar closed in a sell for the day, then it will measure the distance between the open and the High. The reason is that I am basically trying to see how far the market will generally move in the "wrong" direction before it moves in it's primary direction. In other words, if my spreadsheet gives me a value of 21 for the All Median 50% , then, at the open of a new day, once the market has gone 21 pips, whether it has gone 21 pips up or 21 pips down, I will have an even chance that it is already into it's primary direction. That is, if it is 21 pips above the open, I would say that there is an even chance that the primary direction of the market today would be in the buy. That means that I would not expect the market to come back to the open but I would expect it to either continue up or to stay where it is for the rest of the day. This is number will serve as the base calculation for more refined calculations (I will show you an example very soon).

If you observe the market right after open, you will notice that initially it might drop (or rise) a few pips above the open only to drop a few pips below the open within minutes. Then it might move up 10 pips or so above the open and again move back down 15 pips below the open. It could even move up above the market again even after all this before it finally chose a primary direction. Now, from what i have observed, it is very common for the market to behave in this way.

Now, in addition to the All Median 50%, there are also other medians on the spreadsheet that give other values that are based on the All Median 50%. In one other calculation, I used the values below the All Median 50% in order to calculate the median for all values below the value given by the 50%. That is, once I had found that the median was a value of 21, I took all the values below 21 and found their median. In my spreadsheet you will see a value of 7 for the Below 21 Median.

Given all the above information, if I were to do two instant orders by opening a buy and a sell at the instant the new market day opens, I could set my take profits and my stop losses for the two trades near the open and I could make a small profit for each direction. I would use the Below 21 Median calculation to set my Take Profit. Now, know that 7 is too small to set a pending order, but if you used the closest possible take profit stop as a default value (I believe that it is 10 pips), that would be adequate. However, if I were to get a value of maybe 15 on the spreadsheet, then I would like to use that value as that ideally I am trying to use whatever value my spreadsheet says is best.

In one other calculation, I used the values above the All Median 50% in order to calculate the median for all values above the value given by the 50%. Once I had found that the median was a value of 21, this time I took all the values above 21 and found their median. The value on the spreadsheet will be about 36. Meaning that once a trade has moved 36 pips away from the open, it is not likely to return to the open during that day. This is a place where I would like to set my Stop Loss. When given this example, for my buy order, I would set the stop loss 36 pips below the open and for my sell order, I would set the Stop Loss 36 pips above the open.

Using this system, you would not even need to know what the primary direction would be in order to make a profit. I would only have to calculate how far away from the open the market tends to move before it finds its primary direction, and as I showed you above, that is what I have already done on my spreadsheet before I entered into the trade.

Basically, I would like to have this whole process automated. I would like the EA to execute the orders at the instant of market open and set the Take Profits and the Stop Losses. I would like it if the EA did this instantly for 12 or more currency pairs all at once. I don't know if it is possible, but if you could even make it to where the EA would link to the Excel document so that settings and values in the EA could be automatically updated each time a change was made in the Excel document, that would be perfection in motion. Otherwise I guess that you could make default settings for the whole system and the user would have to adjust the settings either before or after the trades initiate.

I hope this is not too demanding. I would be more than happy to share the EA with others. I have no wish at all to keep it to myself and anyone who wants to use it is free to do so.

Something Extra:

Another thing I would like if at all possible, is another set of trades in addition to the ones mentioned above. I would like to have another trade open at the Above Median. For the given example it would be the Above 21 Median and it would be 36 pips away from the open. Two pending orders, another buy and another sell order, could be automatically set 36 pips above and 36 pips below at market open at the same time the other two orders are opened. That would be 4 simultaneous orders total. In addition to Open, High / Low distance medians, my spreadsheet also has medians that measure Bar Range. This measurement can be used to figure out about where the high or low of the market will be once it has chosen a primary direction. I would like to use a Below Median specifically based on the value of the Range in order to set my Take Profit. If the take profit is too close to the entry point of the pending order, a default value of 10 pips away from the order's open could be used just like before with the other orders. I think the Stop Loss could be a trailing Stop Loss that starts at the value given by the All Median 50%.

Lastly, for the second set of trades that I just mentioned,when one of the pending trades trigger, then I would like the opposite pending order to be closed. That is, if the market opens and then eventually makes it's way downward, triggering the pending Sell, then the EA should still close the Buy order at the instant when the Sell order has been triggered. Also, all orders (open orders and pending orders) should be closed at a specified time of the day. I would like to be able to chose a time where I could automatically close my open orders and also a separate time when I could automatically close my pending orders. If not then all the orders (open and pending) could be all closed simultaneously at the end of the day.

I hope this is not too, too demanding. Just let me know what you can do and what you think. I will be happy to hear from you.

Sincerely,

bcam
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Cameron T. Brown - Unnamed Document (2009912).xls   332 KB | 353 downloads
  • #12
  • May 1, 2008 7:08am May 1, 2008 7:08am
Cameron, i just stumpled upon this thread and realize that your thought are similar to mine. You seem to have some interesting thought about SL level, which was my biggest obstacle. Any updates about your strategy and the EA creation?
Liberate me ex inferis
  • #13
  • May 1, 2008 3:08pm May 1, 2008 3:08pm
Hey guys, I'm still trying to code this EA out. The strategy makes sense, and it's just a matter of converting it into something the computer can understand.

I have AP exams during the next two weeks, hopefully I can get out a stable version before then.
  • #14
  • May 1, 2008 6:22pm May 1, 2008 6:22pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
Hey guys, I'm still trying to code this EA out. The strategy makes sense, and it's just a matter of converting it into something the computer can understand.

I have AP exams during the next two weeks, hopefully I can get out a stable version before then.
Hi again, Ronald. Thanks so much for your efforts. I am looking forward to seeing what you come up with.

Update:

The one thing I left out there is how lot sizes should be determined and executed. I am currently working on a way to determine lot sizes based on account equity, the success rate of the system, the potential profit and potential loss of the trade being entered, the traders personal preference for risk, and etc. I have not had a chance to work on it much but expect some good results once I am done.

Also, I plan to eventually make a new spreadsheet which will measure the buy and the sell candlesticks separately in order to get a more specific and refined calculation. Also I think I will have to add medians for the candlestick range. However, I hope that you will have enough info to start and changes could be made later. As for lots sizes, I think a safe default values could be programmed - maybe .10

Hope that is enough info. Let me know what you can do or if you will need more info..
  • #15
  • May 1, 2008 6:25pm May 1, 2008 6:25pm
Quoting Ronyn76
Cameron, i just stumpled upon this thread and realize that your thought are similar to mine. You seem to have some interesting thought about SL level, which was my biggest obstacle. Any updates about your strategy and the EA creation?
I don't have any updates on the SL's If anyone has an improvement on the ideas I already mentioned, then feel free to post them here
  • #16
  • Last Post: May 7, 2008 9:49am May 7, 2008 9:49am
bumping this thread, as I find this subject very interesting
Liberate me ex inferis
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