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USDCHF moving up for 2.5 weeks?

  • #21
  • Apr 29, 2008 9:49am Apr 29, 2008 9:49am
Looks like USDCHF is going to make it's pullback ahead of the FOMC meeting on Thursday. I've posted a few calls regarding this trade as it relates to GBPJPY, S&P and USDCHF. Things seem to be falling into place during this thin trading session ahead of FOMC and NFP. I'll be taking trades on both sides of this move but holding short positions on USDCHF and GBPJPY until their goals are met.
Quoting FX
http://forextradecalls.blogspot.com/
It really is that easy.
  • #22
  • Apr 29, 2008 10:01am Apr 29, 2008 10:01am
What is causing the chf strengthening against the dollar when euro has been rather weak?
Expected the unexpected
  • #23
  • Apr 29, 2008 10:26am Apr 29, 2008 10:26am
This is purely technical from a fundamental perspective. Haha. Sorry. We are in a USDCHF up trend that is driven by fundamentals and techs and trying to distinguish between the two is irrelevant.
The cause of this pullback in my opinion is just exaustion. USDCHF like any other instrument cannot ascend indefinately. There will always be pullbacks. This is one such case. Based on my super expensive software that shows me what is going to happen in the future I need to mow my lawn ahead of the torrential down pour we'll be getting in three days and also sell USDCHF to the 61.8 Fib retracement. Oh and I have the lottery numbers for every state in the union.
It really is that easy.
  • #24
  • Apr 29, 2008 8:27pm Apr 29, 2008 8:27pm
USDCHF recovered after a scary drop. Now it's ranging. What's the next step? Or waiting for the Fed rate decision?
Expected the unexpected
  • #25
  • Apr 29, 2008 9:26pm Apr 29, 2008 9:26pm
oh yes the FOMC is tomorrow so now we wait. USD pairs should be avoided. Trade EURCHF or GBPCHF tomorrow. For most of the world it is tomorrow right now so I should be saying today is the FOMC. Just avoid USD pairs because their waves should be messy.
It really is that easy.
  • #26
  • Apr 29, 2008 9:45pm Apr 29, 2008 9:45pm
what do you think news at 5.30AM for CHF?
it's is ( Leading Index m/m )
did CHF strongest this news or what?
if strong how far it will be drop?
if weak how far it will climb up?
anyone comment guys?
  • #27
  • Apr 29, 2008 10:13pm Apr 29, 2008 10:13pm
Yeah I was wondering about the same - will the Swiss data today influence this pair? In the past, news out of Switzerland itself hasn't seemed to do much to the currency in either way. Makes me think the the franc is only a vehicle that other currencies are gauged against.
Expected the unexpected
  • #28
  • Apr 29, 2008 10:25pm Apr 29, 2008 10:25pm
Quoting scyang
Yeah I was wondering about the same - will the Swiss data today influence this pair? In the past, news out of Switzerland itself hasn't seemed to do much to the currency in either way. Makes me think the the franc is only a vehicle that other currencies are gauged against.
i think we should wait for the coming soon at 5.30pm
  • #29
  • Apr 30, 2008 1:42am Apr 30, 2008 1:42am
Look at Ole Swissy it's going to jump off a cliff . ... LOl
  • #30
  • Apr 30, 2008 1:50am Apr 30, 2008 1:50am
Quoting Clouds
Look at Ole Swissy it's going to jump off a cliff . ... LOl
Did the same thing yesterday then came back. Just don't know enough about forex to know what's driving the movements. Eurusd fly upward too when you think it should go down because UK housing data came out so bad and it should at least weigh down euro a little bit. Instead it went up. Strange.
Expected the unexpected
  • #31
  • Apr 30, 2008 1:53am Apr 30, 2008 1:53am
Quoting scyang
Did the same thing yesterday then came back. Just don't know enough about forex to know what's driving the movements. Eurusd fly upward too when you think it should go down because UK housing data came out so bad and it should at least weigh down euro a little bit. Instead it went up. Strange.
Well, it doesn't look it it has any more room to go higher, it's only can go down.
  • #32
  • Apr 30, 2008 1:55am Apr 30, 2008 1:55am
Quoting scyang
Did the same thing yesterday then came back. Just don't know enough about forex to know what's driving the movements. Eurusd fly upward too when you think it should go down because UK housing data came out so bad and it should at least weigh down euro a little bit. Instead it went up. Strange.

i think its time that we started thinking and treating each currency pair as separate entities...i believe the age of corelation between currency movements is slowly drawing to a close...
  • #33
  • Apr 30, 2008 2:03am Apr 30, 2008 2:03am
Quoting ns_karthik
i think its time that we started thinking and treating each currency pair as separate entities...i believe the age of corelation between currency movements is slowly drawing to a close...
Exactly. If there was correlation then EUR/CHF would be flat right now.
  • #34
  • Apr 30, 2008 2:19am Apr 30, 2008 2:19am
Quoting Clouds
Exactly. If there was correlation then EUR/CHF would be flat right now.
You are both right. I just would like to make some sense out of the movements of the prices. Something must be driving it and it's just that most of us don't know what it is. The market may appear to be irrational, but it is not - at least I don't think so.
Expected the unexpected
  • #35
  • Apr 30, 2008 2:21am Apr 30, 2008 2:21am
Quoting scyang
You are both right. I just would like to make some sense out of the movements of the prices. Something must be driving it and it's just that most of us don't know what it is. The market may appear to be irrational, but it is not - at least I don't think so.
The USD is driving much of the market. That's why you see some correlations.
  • #36
  • Apr 30, 2008 2:23am Apr 30, 2008 2:23am
Do you think that USD is done with strengthening against euro? It looks like there is an upward trend. Not sure it is the beginning of a great (or maybe not so great) an ascend?
Expected the unexpected
  • #37
  • Apr 30, 2008 2:27am Apr 30, 2008 2:27am
Quoting scyang
Do you think that USD is done with strengthening against euro? It looks like there is an upward trend. Not sure it is the beginning of a great (or maybe not so great) an ascend?
Ive no idea
  • #38
  • Apr 30, 2008 2:28am Apr 30, 2008 2:28am
Quoting scyang
Do you think that USD is done with strengthening against euro? It looks like there is an upward trend. Not sure it is the beginning of a great (or maybe not so great) an ascend?
The currency most like the CHF right now is the JPY, cause they are worth the same amount.
  • #39
  • Apr 30, 2008 1:46pm Apr 30, 2008 1:46pm
Quoting Clouds
Well, it doesn't look it it has any more room to go higher, it's only can go down.
Well Swissy did dig itself out of the dog house and went much higher, to 1.0442 to be exactly. Didn't catch the highest point of course, but made a nice profit with the long, and then after the price stablized, turned around on the train south. Now we'll see how far down it goes along with the strengthening of the euro.
Expected the unexpected
  • #40
  • Apr 30, 2008 1:53pm Apr 30, 2008 1:53pm
The statement was bullish for the USD but it was not directly bullish. The FED left the option open for another cut soon if needed. So USD weakness for today is legitimate.
It really is that easy.
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