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Lusan's trade Journal

  • #101
  • Apr 28, 2008 4:27am Apr 28, 2008 4:27am
No such a good day-a mixed day. Two dances...Lost one and won one...I guess we are even. With the new yellow line, there will be surrender days that will protect from castatrophic days...I guess I should be happy of losing some...This is a learning curve...I am learning when to surrender...and when to get back in...

The yellow line keep changing...Note that the line is not an indicator but a key decision point about surrendering...It could be placed either at the lows or LT

First dance
I surrender because the trend violated the new rules. Note the closing below the yellow line.
Many pips lost (probably 80)

Second dance
Long dance low volalatilies. Only two troops out because there is an overhead ressistance.
1- scout (2x)
2- troops (4x)
Now we waited and waited…first indication of action on the GBP.
-it was the timing for the third wave...I did not execute it...so..
Profit taken (probably 40)
Overall we lost 43 pips
Decided to change skew to 1-1-2…Safer
Thoughts: very intense dances… Note how shallow was the full back…I began too fast..even though I access the proper trend…It is still going up and big…but I am out and done.
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #102
  • Apr 28, 2008 12:24pm Apr 28, 2008 12:24pm
lusan, I have been with fti's thread from the beginning, as well as following this trade journal. What I liked best about your trading:

simple, follow pa
would work in a wide variety of market conditions
flexible, not rigid rules
watch 3 kingdoms for "hint" of where price is heading

questions:
strict time frame is tough (I do the same thing myself except during different hours)

if it isn't broken, do not fix it (you seemed very successful, a black swan or two shouldn't make you rethink your entire trading strategy/method, just be more careful)

effect of current market conditions? I think trading any currency pair while it is near an all time high/low is difficult as the volitility gets crazy and trends do not seem to hold.

trend identification:
this is my biggest frustration right now, as even dancing on the 5 min has led to more rescues than I would like.

My theory: On a limited time frame (trading for 2-3 hours at at time), we can not get ideal (or maybe even good entries) so we have to fight while we can on our terms and take what the market offers. I do not think that looking at a longer time frame will help, that just lessens the number of candles you have to work with. I am horrible at reading 1 min or faster candles, so I am going to work on the 5 min. until I get better at it!

I just finished fooled by randomness and have started reading the black swan, I hope to lose some of my stubborness and just follow the candles....

Keep up the journal, don't sell your dancing skills short, they will take you where you want to go!
  • #103
  • Apr 28, 2008 12:50pm Apr 28, 2008 12:50pm
After two days, a lot of reading, and observations...I am making the following modification to 3H dance.

Trading rules
1. Trend line following on 3H time frame
2. 15M for timing
3. P/T at 50 pips, no stops
4. Exit at confirmed TL break
5. Reentry on 15M after any PT on current trend continuation. Meaning: 3H and 15M must in sync.

MO
1. Sequential trading: 1/2 + 1/2.
2. Completed bars only used for trend analysis
3. One rescue operation is allowed only if miss-timing the first entry.
5. Failure is to be found out-of-trend

Definition (As determined by PA)
....Trend up: HH and HL
....Trend down: LL and LH
PA confirms the trendline. TL is a reminder of a surrender line.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #104
  • Apr 28, 2008 1:08pm Apr 28, 2008 1:08pm
Quoting crazy_bdog
lusan, I have been with fti's thread from the beginning, as well as following this trade journal. What I liked best about your trading:

simple, follow pa
would work in a wide variety of market conditions
flexible, not rigid rules
watch 3 kingdoms for "hint" of where price is heading

questions:
strict time frame is tough (I do the same thing myself except during different hours)

if it isn't broken, do not fix it (you seemed very successful, a black swan or two shouldn't make you rethink your entire trading strategy/method, just be more careful)
>>>correct. I am not making much tunning...but I still manage skews...I am moving to 1-1-2 starting tomorrow...the style reminds the same but I will not dance whenever there is news and I will exit at a predefined place...

effect of current market conditions? I think trading any currency pair while it is near an all time high/low is difficult as the volitility gets crazy and trends do not seem to hold.
>>>correct...it is nerve recking!

trend identification:
this is my biggest frustration right now, as even dancing on the 5 min has led to more rescues than I would like.

>>>You might consider

http://www.trade2win.com/traderpedia/1-2-3_formation

is nice article that talks about pa patterns..that is what goes on my mind when I look at the 5M

My theory: On a limited time frame (trading for 2-3 hours at at time), we can not get ideal (or maybe even good entries) so we have to fight while we can on our terms and take what the market offers. I do not think that looking at a longer time frame will help, that just lessens the number of candles you have to work with. I am horrible at reading 1 min or faster candles, so I am going to work on the 5 min. until I get better at it!
>>>totally correct...but be very careful with the 15M...I feel that it could behave as S/R...you must take PT asap...even leaving plenty on the table...PT larger than 15 is risky

I just finished fooled by randomness and have started reading the black swan, I hope to lose some of my stubborness and just follow the candles....

Keep up the journal, don't sell your dancing skills short, they will take you where you want to go!
Come around anytime...the more sharing on my style the better is will become...

I began developing a less nerving approach a dance for the 3H...

Thanks for you visit and comments
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #105
  • Edited 3:50pm Apr 28, 2008 1:23pm | Edited 3:50pm
First test of the slow dance... booty=20 pips
Not bad for a test run...

Learning
1. I entered late into the 3H Trend...
2. Exit late because not PT rule
3. Pullback probably will not work...breakout but more risk?

Now we wait for the next breakout on the 3H... Time to be patient...You could even place and stop/buy or stop/sell at the level below...but I will not because fti does not like stops...the could be easily sweap...the better is to wait for a closing bar with the 15M

I would be either long @ 1.5700 or short @ ~1.5560
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #106
  • Apr 28, 2008 10:19pm Apr 28, 2008 10:19pm
hey lusin i notice that you use trend lines now? I think they are a useful tool ifused right.

Keep up the good work!
  • #107
  • Apr 28, 2008 10:54pm Apr 28, 2008 10:54pm
Hey Lusan,

just dropping by. Just saw ur new 3hr. Careful with averaging esp with e 3hrs. it can and a may get ugly. Suggest you stick with the original plan. heh. just some humble 2pips. okay, riding off!
  • #108
  • Apr 29, 2008 3:10am Apr 29, 2008 3:10am
Quoting jest1081
Hey Lusan,

just dropping by. Just saw ur new 3hr. Careful with averaging esp with e 3hrs. it can and a may get ugly. Suggest you stick with the original plan. heh. just some humble 2pips. okay, riding off!
jest,
I am sticking to the original plan...but I am exploring the 3H...averaging is very risky here, I know...learning...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #109
  • Edited 6:09pm Apr 29, 2008 3:22am | Edited 6:09pm
Quoting M-H Trader
hey lusin i notice that you use trend lines now? I think they are a useful tool ifused right.

Keep up the good work!
Yes, but they are not use in the traditional sense...sometimes they remind me that the trend is broken...some other times to get out...etc...no as indicator...trades are made on PA only...

Edit: Gush...Maybe I should remove the lines..to avoid that people think that I am using them as indicators...They do not work in the 5M as far as I know...Yes...that is what I am going to do...I will remove them!!!!

Still I will place my surrender line...and then you will be confused and think that I am using it as S/R...ah...oh well...I will place the line!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #110
  • Apr 29, 2008 3:38am Apr 29, 2008 3:38am
Single trade…impatient…done prior to established trade…too late to trade today-bed is calling…PA seems to be reverting NOW! Notice how the low are getting closses and closser..Bed time..loss 32 pips

Lesson:
Wait wait wait…if you do not have the time…stay out…
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #111
  • Apr 30, 2008 3:19am Apr 30, 2008 3:19am
Bias-short because of 15M and 5M falling
Skew: 1-1-2
Units= 2k

1- scout
2- 2 troops
3- third wave
Profit: 50 pips

Learning: a little bit more aggressive than yesterday…Single bar entry…Note the timing between waves..each lower than the other..It pays when 15M and 5M are in sync...G/U gave some hints on the entries...Yellow line on top waiting for surrender

A good model of my 5M fast dance...Note that the first wave was a 5M pullback...the second a pullback fail and the third a strong push dow.. PT was taken in the expected 2-1-1..
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #112
  • Edited 4:22am Apr 30, 2008 4:22am | Edited 4:22am
Quoting luSan
Bias-short because of 15M and 5M falling
Skew: 1-1-2
Units= 2k

1- scout
2- 2 troops
3- third wave
Profit: 50 pips

Learning: a little bit more aggressive than yesterday…Single bar entry…Note the timing between waves..each lower than the other..It pays when 15M and 5M are in sync...G/U gave some hints on the entries...Yellow line on top waiting for surrender

A good model of my 5M fast dance...Note that the first wave was a 5M pullback...the second a pullback fail and the third a strong push dow.. PT was taken in the expected 2-1-1..
Hi Lusan,
It looks like you exited on the 03:55 candle i.e. just after the German Unemployment figure at 03:55.
Isn't it dangerous to dance into even Low Impact News such as this?

Ian
  • #113
  • Apr 30, 2008 7:08am Apr 30, 2008 7:08am
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Lusan,
It looks like you exited on the 03:55 candle i.e. just after the German Unemployment figure at 03:55.
Isn't it dangerous to dance into even Low Impact News such as this?

Ian
Maybe...I am not sure which are the news that are bad for my dance...I stay away from those that forex factory marks as red...
I did not include the low impact as something to worry about among the no-no list...

...20-30 pips up or down is fine with me...but 100 pips thats is hard to handle

...still...I entered at 3:37 and I was out at 3:55...
the Unemployment news was at 3:58...so I was out 3 min before the news....the market kept going down another 30 pips or so...no real jump after the news...

I hope this help
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #114
  • Apr 30, 2008 8:34am Apr 30, 2008 8:34am
Quoting luSan
Yes, but they are not use in the traditional sense...sometimes they remind me that the trend is broken...some other times to get out...etc...no as indicator...trades are made on PA only...

Edit: Gush...Maybe I should remove the lines..to avoid that people think that I am using them as indicators...They do not work in the 5M as far as I know...Yes...that is what I am going to do...I will remove them!!!!

Still I will place my surrender line...and then you will be confused and think that I am using it as S/R...ah...oh well...I will place the line!
I think a simple trend line is fine. FTI as i recalled said that too many lines might take your eye off the PA.
  • #115
  • May 7, 2008 7:50am May 7, 2008 7:50am
Quoting fti
regards

PS: I shall discuss with you about your 48sma when the time is right. For now steady as she goes.
Hi luSan, did fti ever discuss the use of 48sma with you? If so, I would be interested to know what he said.
  • #116
  • May 12, 2008 5:18pm May 12, 2008 5:18pm
Quoting Zoran
Hi luSan, did fti ever discuss the use of 48sma with you? If so, I would be interested to know what he said.
Zoran, sorry, I did not get back to you...I was travelling and still dealing with personal things...no much trading...but game play...till I get back in...

fti did not talk about E48 as far as I remember...he wrote me that he was going to explain the center of gravity later...but I do not believe he did..

Now...I think that we are on our own...how are you doing?...

I am considering changing my risk level and taking more risk...I am not happy with so many easy dances on a game dance but so wimpy on the real thing...I notice that most of my practice games are in the evening...no news at that time but slow trading...probably this is the safer time for this strategy.... I wonder...

Regards
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #117
  • May 17, 2008 8:40am May 17, 2008 8:40am
As setting the mood for my first week of day trading, I took a look at the weekly and daily charts...first time ever I care about...but very enjoyable

Analysis:
Typical ABC... Strong long bias...

Note: Of course, I could short the market since I trade the 15M-5M-30S set...but very careful...there are more risks during shorts.
Attached Images
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #118
  • May 19, 2008 1:00pm May 19, 2008 1:00pm
lusan, I hope your transition to being a full time trader goes smoothly, good luck with your new lifestyle! I will be trading more as well, as I am not teaching summer school this year and I hope the markets are not too quiet over the summer months. I have been away from trading for a couple weeks, it will take me a few days to get a feel for what is going on. I use MT4 to look at longer time frames, I have stopped using the weekly chart as I am trying to simplify my analysis. Let us know how you are doing, next week I will be changing my time frame to 1 am to 8 am eastern time so I have to modify my sleep schedule!
  • #119
  • May 19, 2008 4:44pm May 19, 2008 4:44pm
What a day!
1) I went against the news...why?...I forgot that the 'leading index' were coming out today at 10:00 am.
2) Tested a different style than my fast dance...

so I found myself in hell and I fought myself back to the allowable daily loss...no more than 2X of the daily profit target.
I left a small open position because I believe that EU/US is a long...we will see...tomorrow...

Lesson learned...
1) Always know when the news is coming out because it might set a new trend...
2) Do not have position open during the news
3) If you are in hell, wait until PA reaches a major support line and then trade as usual.
4) Do not bother saving the past
5) Saving the book is done when you close all your trades...so just trade as if nothing had happen.
6) If you are against a major trend, bit the bullet and revert...that is the big lesson. You are not playing for trades but for the book.

Mood: Not bad for my first day of day-trading.. I began with a 0.5 % loss, I learned how to fight back, and reminded on the importance of the news...

Tomorrow we will have the fed, ppi and core ppi out...I will go to the gym while all these is on going!!
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #120
  • May 20, 2008 9:12am May 20, 2008 9:12am
Good day...stay away from the ppi news...even when it did not mean a thing...Met my profit target within 8 bars...ah...sweet...I am free for the day...I will go to the library and enjoy some books...

How I did it? Now that I have time..I can be patient..and I could be more aggressive...It just a game, no fear

Well...After last night run...15M into a trench...(by the way I collected small change with the left over open trades)...

So...
1-A quick punch for 10 pips
2-Waited for PA to return to its support.
3-Scout (3k)
4-troop (10 k)
5-troop (10 k)
Profit: 0.5 % ROE

Of course, Pa keep going up...but I am out and clear for the day...well...I have a small open trade on the 1D strategy...but this is for training not for real money...

Learning:
Keep an eye on the 30s before any entry for good timing.
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
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