the market is showing some strength here!
could the weak dollar be the key to a major rally? looks like the corps are raking in huge profits from overseas. im still bearish but certainly the recent price action is not helping my case
, I'm still bearish right along with you, Merlin.
the market is showing some strength here!
could the weak dollar be the key to a major rally? looks like the corps are raking in huge profits from overseas. im still bearish but certainly the recent price action is not helping my case
There might not be any strong reasons to be bullish but is there really any strongs reasons to be bearish.
And please don't rehash what is already in the news, yet the markets haven't sold off yet to any great extent.
Whats happening in the UK today is certainly not good for crude, unless you are long, so I see Monday starting with a negative undertone.
Wednesday's rate announcement & GDP / and Friday's unemployment report might show the way into the summer months.
: why not turn bullish? Certainly a valid way of reasoning. As for crude, that is going to weigh heavily on the proceedings indeed. I'm still not sure the credit markets are under complete control, witness the reassessments of CDO portfolios that are changing by the hour. All in all definitely not a reason for long term bullishness, perhaps on an intraday, weekly basis.
That's an interesting point, so in lieu of any bearish new news
I didn't say that. I said besides what the fundamentals say -why turn bearish. What I mean is, turn bearish if and when the markets actually turn down. Lately there have been HH's and HL's. Tuesday was a minor swing low which I will be watching as well as the lows from the prior Tuesday. That is if we don't just continue higher up the "wall of worry".
Alan Greenspan famously referred to the markets as in a state of "Irrational Exuberance" in December 1996. Clearly he didn't think the markets should go much higher and he must of based that on as much fundamental information anyone could care to get their hands on.
He just was a little ahead of his time, if you can call 4 years a little ahead.
That is why I look at the chart first and then I am dragged, kicking and screaming to look at what the fundies are.
jpy next target is also around the 90 level, hence all the carry's are unwinding, could be interesting to say the least,
I hope you got some shorts in, should be a nice ride down.
BTW, once the guppy makes the final low, for now at least around the 185-187.50 levels(prefered targets for now, we could be collecting interset for at least 3 to 4 month with a very conservative carry play, have a good weekend.
Gene
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Btw, Suntrader, I'm getting more and more curious as to what it'd take to get you bearish again. You seem flexible enough, would 1-2 lower lows be good enough for you?
Or say a S&P close below 1380? Below 1365 perhaps?
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Simple, all the bad news in the world doesn't me a thing.
But a close below 1370 would get me thinking and a close below 1325 would get me bearish.
Although the waves haven't exactly been impulsive, so it may not be sustainable back upto last years alltime high.
Hey SL, next week as I see it now, should see a bit of a correction on the dollar and hence everything else( at least that's what I see at the moment) my view before today was that we would drive down on the carry hard, and I meant hard all through the 15th and then have a very sizeable bounce, as I see things developing now in the charts it looks a lot more likely to have a corection up, geppy, eu/yen, etc., through the 15th next week, (will get exact over the weekend, needs some more fine tuning) and then a huge push down. In any case, PA should tell us what's up, as far as the dates, just heads up to pay attention because it should be very nice one(move wize).
Let's see what develops, I'll do some analysing over the weekend and publish my thoughts for all to critique, lol
P.S. The last comments from the officials, and in particular Triche of wanting a stronger dollar could have some profound effects as I see it now, not to say that we saw a final top on the Euro, but it could be that we will see a much deeper 4th wave just something to keep in mind, Good point about the Euro/gbp, does look like 7600 level is in play within the next few weeks... at least
SL, as you have mentioned I am watching swing points - and that is all.
I keep it simple, market is going up then that is the direction to trade. When and if it breaks down I will trade short.
I am biased to which ever direction the markets decide and not which way "I think it should go".
over the weekend to get a better idea about what's happening. Cause any day now I think a break is coming. Which way and when are the big questions.
