GBP/JPY Trendline Traders | Forex Factory

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GBP/JPY Trendline Traders

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 25, 2008 1:35pm Apr 25, 2008 1:35pm
This thread is purely for GJ trend line traders, I will appreciate if we keep the topic of discussion here purely to trendline trading.

The Auslanco thread was cool till the time it was restricted to trendlines and then it went awry.

I would appreciate if the best trendline traders on FF team up here to discuss the possibilities better.

And I would appreciate if we look at 4 hour charts or higher, for longer term trading, there are plenty of scalping threads elsewhere.


So, whos starting first ??

Btw, we had a 4 hur trendline break recently, which puts us into the 211 + range.
  • #2
  • Apr 25, 2008 1:52pm Apr 25, 2008 1:52pm
In general, the forex market is easier to predict in the long term than in the short term. However, most new traders often lose sight of the big picture and instead concentrate on recent upward and downward trends. They get too caught up with the latest news and focus on the 1 hour and 4 hours charts believing easy money is made by seizing the right opportunity. That in my view is more like gambling and not investing.


it takes immense courage to enter a trade and watch it swing back against you without the temptation to bank a small profit or move your stop too soon. If you have the courage to follow the big trends and take the swings you will be rewarded by making money fast and triple digit annul gains could be yours.

Remember that longevity in any trading market is the key to making money by trading. You should trade slowly over a long time with minimal risk, this is always preferable to frequent trade with too much risk.

Working smart to make money fast involves building a simple trading system you have confidence, in only focusing on long term breakouts and having the courage to let a trend run.
Most traders can't do the above, that's why they never make money fast and end up losing.

The big trends that yield the huge profits only come a few times a year in most currencies, since you're trading to make money fast, you will do this if you wait for the right opportunities and milk the big trends for all their worth.
  • #3
  • Apr 25, 2008 1:55pm Apr 25, 2008 1:55pm
Quoting forexlion
In general, the forex market is easier to predict in the long term than in the short term. However, most new traders often lose sight of the big picture and instead concentrate on recent upward and downward trends. They get too caught up with the latest news and focus on the 1 hour and 4 hours charts believing easy money is made by seizing the right opportunity. That in my view is more like gambling and not investing.


it takes immense courage to enter a trade and watch it swing back against you without the temptation to bank a small profit or move your stop too soon. If you have the courage to follow the big trends and take the swings you will be rewarded by making money fast and triple digit annul gains could be yours.

Remember that longevity in any trading market is the key to making money by trading. You should trade slowly over a long time with minimal risk, this is always preferable to frequent trade with too much risk.

Working smart to make money fast involves building a simple trading system you have confidence, in only focusing on long term breakouts and having the courage to let a trend run.
Most traders can't do the above, that's why they never make money fast and end up losing.

The big trends that yield the huge profits only come a few times a year in most currencies, since you're trading to make money fast, you will do this if you wait for the right opportunities and milk the big trends for all their worth.
good info, i love it
until now i'm no guts to trade on GBPJPY,
i'm only trade GBPJPY if i'm looking prety nice trend
  • #4
  • Apr 25, 2008 2:07pm Apr 25, 2008 2:07pm
Sweet thread man. I trade trendlines like it's the only way to trade many times. I'm always looking for the trendline before anything else. I love this thread. Also I have a blog where I have posted a couple predictions that have become very profitable but Twee won't let me show you my blog.
Here is a trade I took today during US session. Target was the yellow line which is 50% of the daily move. I took the position off with 39 pips profit because my intuition was that it could do a full retrace during US session. I called this trade live in forexrazor with take profit. To get into a trade like this I really like to see UJ or UCHF or EJ confirming the direction and break and then I enter on the close of the 15min candle if it is on the other side the othe td line.
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It really is that easy.
  • #5
  • Apr 26, 2008 3:30am Apr 26, 2008 3:30am
Welcome to the thread trendliners

Here is the latest GJ 4 hour trend, a move to 211.62 or higher.

I missed a lower entry because i was sleeping.
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  • #6
  • Apr 26, 2008 3:44am Apr 26, 2008 3:44am
If you look at the supercycle, the last major wave was down. The zig zagging from 1994 on suggests this is a corrective wave, which means a downward impulse wave will resume after the corrective wave completes.

Lets talk from the big picture down, Piters posted some good charts on the Dow and the GJ.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=82299

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Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #7
  • Apr 26, 2008 6:46pm Apr 26, 2008 6:46pm
Unless I am not wrong, and if this monthly chart is correct then, we have a long and boring journey ahead.

I am just glad that finally i decided to tackle GJ on monthly charts instead of wasting time and money on 1 hour charts.

1 hour chart traders loose more than gain in the long run.

I wish someone had told me to take forex as an investment strategy instead of daytrading.

And some lovely info toyboy tramp, i should pay more attention to the super cycles, that is some lovely info.

By the way has anyone noticed that Daily, Weekly and Monthly UJ has a 112.50 target which means we are going up big time now.
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  • #8
  • Apr 26, 2008 7:45pm Apr 26, 2008 7:45pm
Hi,

I would like to subscribe to this thread. Here is a GJ monthly chart with a trendline. Arent we supposed to fall further to the 187's area for a retest of the trendline which also happens to be the 61.8 ret level?

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  • #9
  • Apr 27, 2008 12:37am Apr 27, 2008 12:37am
On the contrary, we broke a weekly trendline, and we are currently going up twards the second trendline, a bounce from there if at all can send us back down, or we continue north.

My first bet would be the 220 area
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  • #10
  • Apr 27, 2008 1:55am Apr 27, 2008 1:55am
Great thread forexlion! looking forward to the healthy discussions around...let's rock n roll!!!

here is my Gj long i took late on friday, according to my trendlines we are heading up and i am glad to have my opinion going parallel to many opinions here belonging to you super traders...

http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j2.../dipshfg-4.gif

enjoy the green pips!
I believe . . .
  • #11
  • Apr 27, 2008 4:54am Apr 27, 2008 4:54am
The Elliott Wave Principle defines the primary aspects of an Impulse wave as:

1. Wave 2 does not fall below the starting price of Wave 1.
2. Wave 3 is not the shortest wave by price movement when compared to Wave 1 and Wave 5.
3. Wave 4 does not overlap the range of Wave 2.

Wave 4 clearly overlaps the the range of wave 2. Therefore the above guidelines to EW support the conclusion that the 94 wave is corrective, a sideways counter trend flat, not an impulse wave. It COULD be an impulse wave however as Elliot Wave's flaw is its subjectivity.

207 is major long term resistance. A 13 year old trend channel (in the early 190s - tested mid-march?) needs to be broken for the beast to descend, and there is a similar monster of a trend line on the DJIA, as you might expect.

The Beast ranged between 190 and 207 from 2004 until mid 2006...
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Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #12
  • Apr 27, 2008 12:49pm Apr 27, 2008 12:49pm
http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/9800/gjhs5.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

here is my view of GJ daily chart. rising wedge is forming, indicating that price might turns southward again.

of course, i will keep monitoring price action within the converging trendlines.

any comment/feedbacks is welcome.
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  • #13
  • Apr 27, 2008 3:00pm Apr 27, 2008 3:00pm
Keep up the good work forexlion,I am trying to educate myself with price action only.That is the holy grail.Find the principal in anything and you will become successful!
  • #14
  • Apr 27, 2008 5:25pm Apr 27, 2008 5:25pm
hi all, nice concept
  • #15
  • Apr 27, 2008 5:26pm Apr 27, 2008 5:26pm
Try this, its hard coded to the weekly candle.

Anything above 0% is uptrend and below 0% is downtrend.

Varies from +100% to -100%, to give the overall strength of trend on the weekly candle, monday figures can be risky.
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  • #16
  • Apr 27, 2008 5:43pm Apr 27, 2008 5:43pm
What is your take on my chart here forexlion?I think we are going to fall a little bit more than resume up.Input would be apprieciated!!
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  • #17
  • Apr 27, 2008 8:28pm Apr 27, 2008 8:28pm
I will wait for last month high 207.95 to decide, on whether we go up or down, if it breaks and consolidates above it then we go u further, if not then we will see.

But this figure will be touched atleast once.
  • #18
  • Apr 28, 2008 10:40am Apr 28, 2008 10:40am
Broke and closed a 4 hour candle above it, which means we continue north.
  • #19
  • Apr 28, 2008 11:11pm Apr 28, 2008 11:11pm
Quoting kelab4x
http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/9800/gjhs5.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

here is my view of GJ daily chart. rising wedge is forming, indicating that price might turns southward again.

of course, i will keep monitoring price action within the converging trendlines.

any comment/feedbacks is welcome.

good observation
  • #20
  • Apr 29, 2008 1:17am Apr 29, 2008 1:17am
Forgive me for my ignorance on that last post.I have deleted it.I don't know what chart I was looking at...look forward to your guys's future posts.
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