USDCHF moving up for 2.5 weeks?

I'll be looking for a long USDCHF at 1.0095 to hold until May 15th or 1.0785 which ever comes first.

I might be taking GBPCHF before USDCHF. Targets for time and price are in red on the chart.

This was a daily trendline that a few of us saw and positioned short near. We should see an ABC push down then we'll trade the 15min td line break long early next week.

I am new to charts but very interested in learning about it. Would like to understand better your position and prediction to the usdchf pair in the early part of next week, with a shower of economic news coming out. In your first post, you mentioned that the pair would hold between 1.00xx to 1.07xx. It's at 1.0332, somewhere in the middle of the range you mentioned. Could you tell me, based on the charts, which direction this pair is going in short term, and if you care to explain, why you believe so?

Would like to ask you to clarify what you are trying to say. Are you expecting the pair to go up or down early next week? What's an ABC push down? Thanks.

It's good to ask questions. First understand that I said initially I'll be long USDCHF until my price or date is hit. I don't have fundamental reasons for this because fundamentals are stretched to their limits in this market. It's irrational right now. The USDollar is undervalued and the CHF is overvalued if that helps you.
An ABC correction pattern is something you should lookup and study and learn front and back right side up and upside down. Literally.
Anyone can be a pro trader if he or she has the time and dedication.
I post relevant commentary on my blog. It's much more convenient and organized. I like to post on ForexFactory to help people because anytime you help someone or donate to help someone your life is enriched.

Thank you very much for your reply. I would like to know where you think I should go to learn about the ABC patterns and whatever else you think are the very basic for forex trading? Hard to know where to start there is so much out there to know. Thanks.

Everybody seems to be talking about euro recovering after a 400-pip haircut, which, if it's true, means usdchf will go down instead of next week. What do you think?

EUR/CHF has gone up 800 pips since March 14th. Something to think about. But you are probably right, USD pairs seem act very similar.

Thanks, Clouds.
Regarding an ABC tutorial I think babypips is supposed to be really good.

-sigh- Jeff has turned into a chartist...

I think the uptrend is a fluke and will continue down shortly.

Why do u think it's a fluke? Eurusd went down so naturally usdchf went up. Where do u think usdchf is going in the beginning of next week?

Because fundamentals haven't changed. Is there a reason for the dollar to get stronger yet?

My humble opinion...

I don't see any reason yet to support a recovery in the USD

Looks like any "just a little less than the worst" news from the USD is causing these hickups at the market...

Cheers!

Especially when you look at the news poised to come out next week. I agree with Tdion, I think it's about to resume a negative USD trend. Obviously...we shall see next week.

Damn, I'm actually starting to mild meld with you these days.... LOL

Jedi, what do you think about starting to average down into a long? A very small position (swap positive too...) with maybe a 2500 pip stop? Keep adding positions as it falls.... with huge stops.....

It can only go 10,000 more pips down... and after Bear Sterns, it didn't fall at all.... So there is a bottom unless a catastrophic event occurs, such as another bombing to critical infrastructure.

I think that adding larger positions on the way down would be good, so when the reversal comes (you don't know when) your base position will be larger and give you a nice profit....

Basically you are building a pyramid, and don't know where you are until after it reverses.

I'll stick with my initial analysis provided April 23rd . You guys might be close on your prices but the direction should not fully change until May 15th.
Glad to see you here, TDion. I've always been a chartist but I let my fundamentals lead my charts and I've noticed in the past 2 months since the beginning of Dollar intervention from Bank of Israel and talks around USDJPY 100.00 fundamentals left the building. The fact of the matter is USD is undervalued against all majors with exception of JPY by 20% and JPY is undervalued against USD by over 10%. These figures are not my estimate.
The FED should stop lowering on their next meeting. People are saying the meeting next week will not lower but I believe it will lower and this will be the last lowering we'll see. Banks are not going to surprise like Bear Stearns anymore because there are some new laws signed in and Hank Paulson got to buy Bear Stearns for a steal so they are happy. (Oh oops did I say Hank bought BS? I meant JPMorgan. Of course when JPMorgan died it was revealed he only owned 10% of the bank bearing his namesake. Back to my original statement Hank bought BS.) I bring up the conspiracy because it's more relevant than what NFP comes out next week. Furthermore it's only confined to the realm of conspiracy for the underinformed. A true fundamentalist cannot ignore the fact that only a hand full of people run this world.

What you said is really very interesting. I guess pros are always pros. Any other insight into the inner works of the financial/political world that might affect currencies, particularly usdchf and eurusd? Thx.

Preferred issues reach record volumes Cardiff de Alejo Garcia 25 Apr 2008
Issues of preferred shares by global financial institutions have reached record volumes year-to-date as banks seek to shore up capital on their balance sheets in the wake of tightening credit markets and losses on debt-related structured products, according to data from Dealogic.
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Through Thursday, financial institutions had raised $54.7bn in 2008, more than twice the $25.3bn raised in 2007 to this point in the year, wrote Dealogic’s Anthony Castillo.
US banks accounted for about 75% of the global total, an increase from 64% in 2007.
The number of preferred issues has declined from 53 deals in 2007 year-to-date to 37 deals this year.
But the deals thus far this year have been larger, with 16 deals of more than $1bn raised, compared to five such deals last year.
Bank of America raised the most among all banks with $10bn in preferred shares issued, including $4bn yesterday.
Citigroup came next by raising nearly that amount with $9.715bn, which includes a $6bn issuance this past Monday.
Also notable was JP Morgan’s sole preferred share issuance this year of $6bn on April 16, just after the bank announced first-quarter earnings. The issuance tied with Citigroup's and one by Bank of America on January 24 as the largest preferred share issuances this year.
On Tuesday, Merrill Lynch announced the sale of $2.55m in preferred shares.
Analyst Brad Hintz of AllianceBernstein concluded that the move will possibly lead to Merrill’s credit being downgraded by ratings agencies, which apply limits to how much of a company’s capital base should consist of preferred shares and hybrid securities.
Hintz wrote: “Unfortunately, [Merrill Lynch] is well over the limits. As a result we don’t think Merrill Lynch will get much equity credit from the rating agencies for its recent preferred issuance.”
A spokeswoman said that Merrill Lynch does not comment on analyst reports.
Preferred issues were not alone in hitting new levels.
Collateralized debt obligations have been defaulting in record numbers since the credit meltdown began accelerating this past summer, leading to huge writedowns on the balance sheets of banks.
Since last October, collateralized debt obligations with portfolios of asset-backed securities, or ABS CDOs, have reached nearly $186bn, according to a report from Wachovia analysts.
The report said that 165 ABS CDOs have defaulted since last October, totaling $185.9bn in value.
These amounts add up to 27% of ABS CDOs issued since 2004 and 32% of their volume.
As for ABS CDOs issued since the beginning of last year, 59% have defaulted.
Of all CDOs ever issued—including ABS CDOs, commercial real estate CDOs, and trust preferred CDOs—11% have defaulted, with most of those in default having been issued in the last two years.
Asset Managers of ABS CDOs that have recently defaulted this month include Petra Capital Management, Invesco, Bear Stearns Asset Management and BlackRock.


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A true fundamentalist cannot ignore the fact that only a hand full of people run this world.[/quote]

You are so true on that!!