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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #75,581
  • Apr 25, 2008 11:42am Apr 25, 2008 11:42am
Malcolm,

I'm looking for a 50bp cut myself, but a 25bp cut isn't out of the question. I also read that CDO's are becoming dissolvent at a higher rate than previously expected which means the credit markets are still not functioning properly and that is really what it's about. However we'll have to wait and see, in the mean time the USD/CHF should be a good play.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #75,582
  • Apr 25, 2008 12:17pm Apr 25, 2008 12:17pm
Quoting frevd
here you go (find attached), you can have any period (default daily) and it shows in all timeframes <= than the selected tf.

Frevd ,I told you .don't take to public ..my indicators ...SAD
  • #75,583
  • Apr 25, 2008 12:37pm Apr 25, 2008 12:37pm
Quoting hussin naiji
ya allah
hi all
ya ali madad
Regards
  • #75,584
  • Apr 25, 2008 12:56pm Apr 25, 2008 12:56pm
Quoting ephisi
exited first long at BE, and second long 4 30pips, DOW wants to tank, if i get a short signal , ill take it,

i came in late for d US news, so im so disorganized. Its freaky friday, and i think DOW is calpable of shaking of d bad news so shorts be caareful, but if u guys get confirmed short signal, good 4 u. ill just rest and analysed what i missed

Just checking in to see whats up, i was right.
  • #75,585
  • Apr 25, 2008 12:59pm Apr 25, 2008 12:59pm
Quoting howard
ya ali madad
thanks howard
ya hoo
you can speak persian ?
  • #75,586
  • Apr 25, 2008 1:14pm Apr 25, 2008 1:14pm
Quoting ephisi
Just checking in to see whats up, i was right.
I was thinking the dj would just go straight up today.

Nice YM traidng today ... she moved over 500 points total today .. makes gj look like a pussy cat.

Scored a very nice 120 point move in last 1.5 hour of market

I think for next week dj -30 will move up into 13200 before Wednesday.

This should take gj up into the 210 / 211 area

We are sitting with a bull flag on the 15 min that has been broken . the flag pole was 300 pips , tagrets for me next week on gj are 209.87 and 211.65.

For swing traders i would not be taking a sell till price break the trend line and LR channel at 205 .I would be looking to buy pullbacks right now.

1st chart = 15 min
2nd chart =60 min


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj102.png Size: 148 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj106.png Size: 155 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #75,587
  • Edited 1:30pm Apr 25, 2008 1:17pm | Edited 1:30pm
=1,28
*305=390,4
/100=3,904
+205,3=209,204
Attached Images
  • #75,588
  • Apr 25, 2008 1:19pm Apr 25, 2008 1:19pm
[quote=malcolmb14;1970919]I was thinking the dj would just go straight up today.

Nice YM traidng today ... she moved over 500 points total today .. makes gj look like a real tiger.

Scored a very nice 120 point move in last 1.5 hour of market
  • #75,589
  • Apr 25, 2008 1:43pm Apr 25, 2008 1:43pm
Hi all,
I'm new to this forum and have been following it for a couple of weeks. I think that everyone who is short should reevaluate your position. Both the gbpjpy and the gbpusd are heading north. They both have harmonic gartley patterns, well the gbpjpy is a true gartely and the gbpusd is a butterfly,but the gbpusd is more symmetrcal. Additionally the COT data for this week on the gbp has been at an extreme short at a value of 0 which means a reversal. We are heading to test upper channel trendlines for the next couple of weeks. The gbp was very buoyont yesterday as the Eur took a dive it was just a matter of time that the eurgbp gave way and helped the gbpusd and gbpy head north. This whole short is only a correction. The US is not heading for a strong dollar recovery anytime soon.

Just my 2 pips!! feel free to use as kitty litter
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy240.gif Size: 185 KB
  • #75,590
  • Apr 25, 2008 1:45pm Apr 25, 2008 1:45pm
[quote=Tiger Hunter;1970923]
Quoting malcolmb14
I was thinking the dj would just go straight up today.

Nice YM traidng today ... she moved over 500 points total today .. makes gj look like a real tiger.

Scored a very nice 120 point move in last 1.5 hour of market

lol funny
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #75,591
  • Apr 25, 2008 1:58pm Apr 25, 2008 1:58pm
just entered another short @ 207 before market closes
  • #75,592
  • Apr 25, 2008 2:04pm Apr 25, 2008 2:04pm
malcomb

jaroo


salute to all bulls , have a lovely weekend
  • #75,593
  • Apr 25, 2008 2:32pm Apr 25, 2008 2:32pm
Attached Image
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #75,594
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:08pm Apr 25, 2008 4:08pm
Quoting Srikanth
just entered another short @ 207 before market closes

Depending on the time frame you are trading ...good luck if you are going short.... based on the flag as shown in my last posting you are going to need it.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #75,595
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:50pm Apr 25, 2008 4:50pm
Quoting samclider
Frevd ,I told you .don't take to public ..my indicators ...SAD
You should of used an ex4 file instead as folks can be forgetful, but why share it at all with anyone if that was a concern in the first place...
  • #75,596
  • Edited 5:29pm Apr 25, 2008 5:16pm | Edited 5:29pm
Quoting arezab
Hi Aad, what is this stochastic indicator you are using? Would you mind please to share it?

I appreciate it.
Hi Arezab, I use the those stochs when I'm bored and in need of some visual fun or testing. I don't normally use it to trade, I mostly try to stick to the teachings of Jacko, James16, and Bobokus.

But you are welcome to test it if you would like. Test with a 20 WMA-"first indicator's data" and RSI 8. When all stochs and RSI are above the WMA and going in the same direction that's a possible long signal/filter. But also follow the overbought/oversold lines and the 50 line accordingly...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gy 4-25-2008 aad's (spuds stochs) v2.gif Size: 34 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Spuds Stochastic Thread Theory.pdf   692 KB | 628 downloads
File Type: tpl AAD's (Spuds StochThreads) v2.tpl   14 KB | 386 downloads
  • #75,597
  • Apr 26, 2008 11:55am Apr 26, 2008 11:55am
It might go up as far as 212, and if it broke 205 down to 200, any speculation welcome, anyone short? I am
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #75,598
  • Apr 26, 2008 1:06pm Apr 26, 2008 1:06pm
Quoting auslanco
Dear traders....
I decided to start my own thread because there are some other great traders who can provide very valuable analysis of GBP/JPY on the other thread , and I feel that my trade calls are overshadowing those good analysis contributed by other experienced traders.
This thread is mainly focused for new traders who want to learn my trading methods.

Money Management & Trading habits:
Maximum 2% risk per pair. What that means is when you calculate your stop losses your stop loss amount has to be within 2% of your account .If the trade goes against you, the maximum you will loose is 2% of your account. This way it also prevents you from getting panic attacks when the trade retrace against you resulting you close the trade pre maturely. If your desired stop losses do not come within 2% of your account don’t take that trade. As I always say, you may miss one trade but there are millions more to come.
You always have to calculate your risk every time before you enter your trades.
Your risk to profit ratio has to be minimum 1:1. That means if you are taking a 2% risk on a trade make sure your profit target would be at least 2%.
Always have realistic targets. My aim is 300 % capital growth per year. The lesser your target is lesser the risk of losing your own money. Even if you have 50% capital growth per year you are doing better than 90% of the worlds biggest hedge funds.
More trades you take the more you expose your account for losses. No trader in this world can profit from every single market move.
Patience plays a big part in trading. Take the trades only if you are at least 90% sure of profiting from it. If you are not sure stay away from the trade. Staying on the sideline is as good as winning.
Never trade against the trend. Specially with a high volatile pair like GBP/JPY. It may give you couple of winning trades. But it’s going to get you in the long run.
Always have a trading strategy ... make a habit to stick to it doesn’t matter how desperate you are. Always trust your strategy but not bloomberg or some statement from citibank. Don’t go with your gut feeling because 95% of the time your gut feeling is wrong.
Your charts are your forex bible. Everything what you need to know about forex is on your charts. You will learn something new everyday from you charts.
Specialize in one or two pairs. Every single pair has it’s own characteristics. No two pairs are the same. Don’t trade all the pairs your broker can offer. If you specialize in one or two pairs very soon you will be able to read the pair like a road map .
Stay away from the ranging markets. There will be enough of trend break outs on this pair than you ever want. Why take any extra risks trying to chase 20 pips on a ranging markets when you can grab 200 pips on a break out.
As Monarc mentioned traders are a greedy bunch. Less greedy once are the most successful once.
Don’t try to chase every single pip or market movement. Have a realistic weekly or monthly target as a percentage of your account . Not the number of pips. If you have already achieved that target stay away from the market. As I mentioned before.. the more you trade there is more risk of losing your money.
The losses are part of the game. Do not try to cover all your previous losses from your next trade. First your trading plan has to include at least 50% of losing trades. Then you can cut down on the number of losing trades while you gain experience and confidence.
When you start you must demo trade at least for the first 3 months to build a trading strategy. Then for the next 3 months trade on a demo account or a micro account and test your strategy coupled with a good money management strategy. When you are fully confident then trade with your real account.
Use minimum account leverage. Don’t abuse it. My recommendation for new traders is maximum one mini lot for every $2500 or one full lot for every $25000.
At last ... remember there is no easy way to become a good consistently profitable trader. No one can become a profitable trader overnight. As everything else in life it takes time, patience lots of sacrifices and learning. Don’t be afraid of mistakes.
It took me 8 months to make my first consistent $100 per week. Since then making money is like a walk in the park.

Edit 07/31/07:
Notes about SI:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ovidiu http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I promise to not ask anything else that's not related directly to your strategy from now on, cause I realize that I am flooding with all this SI thing, but could you point me from where can I get that indicator, cause know is all I need to have an exact replica of your setting.

Add &quot;Qualitative Quantitative Estimation&quot; to VT. It is the same as &quot;SI&quot;. A's is a commercial product that he can't pimp on this thread. PM him if you want to pay for it.

This info would be good on page 1 as well. It has been asked a thousand times.
Great, great and great job you have here, you spoke my mind even though you are not there, you just sounded like my instructor who I respect so much.
I also have a site that preaches Patience but yours is a work I will always refer to

Thanks for making me a thought, you just made my day
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  • #75,599
  • Apr 26, 2008 4:06pm Apr 26, 2008 4:06pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
If 80% of the market stays in ranging market, then, I would agree with Ukutrader. how often this pair in trendy condition within your timeframe? I guess it is wiser to let the number speak for itself

Quoting auslanco
Hi Ukutrader, Glad to see you on this thread. This is soley depends on your strategy. I dont trade on ranging markets. You may collect 200 pips on a ranging markets but @ what risk?. Say if you make 5 trades on 2% risk per trade to collect 200 pips your are exposing your account 5 times for risks compared to mine only once. My 200 pips are far more superior than your 200 pips because I only risked 2% to make 200 pips but you risked 10% to make 200 pips. hope you get the point. Good practise of forex trading is all about maximum gains with minimum risk exposure just like any other liquid investment.
  • #75,600
  • Apr 26, 2008 4:09pm Apr 26, 2008 4:09pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
use indicators to trade trendy market equals to suicide to me

Quoting auslanco
I use
Stochastic RSI 8,3
Momentum 10 C
RSI 14
ADXR 14
Strength Indicator(very simillar to MACD) as the trend confirmation indicator.

If daily 4hr and 1hr all lined up together I go for a 500 pip profit target.
If only 4hr and 1hr lined up together I go for a 200-300 pip target.

If you want more detailed information I would suggest you to have a look @ other GBP/JPY analysis thread, where i have explained about the indicators on number of posts. Thanks for joining this thread& hope you will enjoy
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