FXBox (a way to gain more than pips)

Hello Traders,

and those who want become a trader.

For today i will show you a method to gain more money with trading the news.

News Trading? not for me. BUT WAIT. you don't need any fundamentals knowledge or an indicator to trade this successful.

Well, my english is not so perfect, but i try my best.

"What you say! i don't need any indicator or traders knowledge?"

Thats right. Only you need a little bit money, patience and an account at OANDA or an online broker which provide FX SPOT (option calls).

"What are you talking, man!"

So simple and easy. Ok let's begin.

Look at the lastest news which influence the US$ market for today 24th april 2008 at 12:30 GMT. this news had high impact and the market price go south.
What can we do?

1. you could have opened a position with 1 lot before the news releases and hope it will go in the right direction. and maybe set hedging or similar things to lower the risk. and if you are a lucky trader you will gain until now 800 US$ for the 80 pips. thats a lot money.

i say you could get about 2500 US$ with the SAME margin (1 lot).

"You are crazy!". Yes, you're true.

Now we come to number two.

2 you could set a MissBoxOption 15 minutes before the news will release and gain about 30% - 80% profit of the purchase price.
to compare with number 1:
purchase a MissBoxOption for 3140 US$ (1 Lot) set the start date 5 minutes after news release and a duration of 5 minutes (minimum) and only a range of 10 pips (minimum you could set).
then you have to wait. if successful you gain 30% - 80% profit. about 900SU$ - 2512 US$.
thats it.

i will show you a example with the news release today
(Core Durable Goods Orders m/m).

what you see in the 1st picture below is the box 5 minutes after news release:

http://www.prinova.de/assets/BeforeTrade.jpg

the next picture shows the chart 5 minutes after the news release:

http://www.prinova.de/assets/AfterNewsRelease.jpg

and the last picture is at the time when the charts are behind the box

http://www.prinova.de/assets/AfterTrade.jpg
(box resize depends on zooming)

thats all. gained 80% profit of the purchase price.

so if you are all interested in how this works i will give you a step-to-step instructions.

happy boxing

PriNova

this is a free system you're offering, I presume? because if it's not, it would be considered forum promotion which is illegal according to the FF ToS and you risk getting banned.

Alright....so explain your *free system*.

I'm game....lets hear it.

Welcome to FF.

Now now guys, I don't see anything he's done wrong yet.

Let's here more about your system, specifically what is the risk?

Options are something forex traders should understand, as they can help you offset risk if you know what your doing.

PriNova,

There are some threads about using oanda's box to trade news. You and anobody could it easily find in FF.

In Your post You don't say one (maybe two) little thing:

1. In first option (buying before news) You could set Stop Loss let's say 30 pips. So with about 1:30 leverage (as with Oanda and EURUSD) Your loss will be about 300 US. As You said win maybe 80 pips (I think this is unlikely with most news and EURUSD - but sometimes it could happen) with one lot it be 800USD - So your Profit / Loss ratio is about 2.67 and Your risk about 10% of 3140 - good.

2. With boxes You buy box for 3140 and You could loss it all ! If You win, You earn max 2500 (as You say) so Your Profit /Loss is 0.79 max, and Your Risk 100% of 3140!

In order to be profitable You should have very high win ratio well above 50% .

I don't say that it's impossible (as I wrote people wrote about it in FF) - but isn't easy and requires very good money management and backtesting.

Regards,

Andrew

Ok, traders

this system is absolutely free !!!

what is the BoxOption in OANDA?

with the boxoption you could purchase a kind of prediction contract with your broker.

if you predict the price will HITthe box you will get back your purchaseprice + a premium (30% - 80%) which is calculated.

if you predict the price will MISS the box you will also get back your purchaseprice + premium(30% - 80%).

But if the conditions not met you loose the purchaseprice.

the good think is. while the price is went away from your hit-box you could sell the box back to your broker (the same with the miss-box), but not for the purchase price. this lower the loss a little bit. sometimes 10%-50% of the purchased price.

the best is you do not have a margincall or pay SPREADS.

why is this good?

with my system i only use the BoxOption with news releases. and with OANDA they do not have fixed spreads. during release the spreads widden sometimes more then 5 pips on major currencies. thats really bad :-(
and they do not provide hedge functionality.

ok here is the instruction to trade the FXBox:

1. Look at an economic calender for all news releases at a day. pick only the news with high impact prediction ex.:

a. Interest rate decision
b. Retail sales
c. Inflation (consumer price or producer price)
d. Unemployment
e. Industrial production
f. Business sentiment surveys
g. Consumer confidence surveys
h. Trade balance
i. Manufacturing sector surveys

at the www.forexpeacearmy.com site there is a calendar where you could open the historical news release charts. this is important, because to go sure there are a high impact news also in the past.

i would not get credits from the side nor the author ask for advertisement. it is only my personal calendar tool. use others if you like.

2. login to oanda and draw a MISS-pricebox with a startdate 5 minutes after the news release you selected. because you will predict that the price will miss the box after the news releases.

VERY IMPORTANT: You have only a 15 minute range from the current candle until drawing the box. hope you understand. prepare early to draw the box

3. set the box to a 10 pip range and the middle of the box have to be about the same height like the midprice in the chart.
4. set the timeduration to 5 minutes. this is the minimum allowed.
5 set the purchase price to whatever you want min. 1US$.

6 You will see the payment price of the box you set. the more the price is near to the box the more payment you will get if the conditions are met. more below.

7. Wait until the currency pricetime is a little bit more then 15 minutes until it reaches the box. fine adjust the pip range to the middle and then
press 'SUBMIT'.

but be aware! if the time range is smaller then 15 minutes to the box you have to set the start time 5 minutes later. and this is sometimes to much and the box could hit. this is not what we want. we want missing the box.

20 minutes later you will see the results. with high impact news the price will miss the box and you will get your profit + the purchaseprice of the box.

if you compare the historical news releases and set your price box imaginelly you will see that around more than 80% the box were missed. i did not compare all releases but the most i saw the conditions met.

why the missbox?

you know if news releases the price will move in any direction, but you don't know at which direction.

i'm right? but if you know in which direction the price after release goes then you do not need a pricebox.

important is the movement. this is why we choose high impact news.

what you also could do is to set a higher piprange and or timerange of the box. the more you set the more you will get, but the possibility that the box will hit is higher.
at the non-farm-payroll news every first friday of month you could easily set a 20-30 pip range and 10-15 minute range. this will gain more then 300% profit. but be sure what you do.

do i forget something?

ah yes, after 20 minutes you will see what happend. a green box is good a red box is bad.

money management is your own decision. i have mine and this is not calculated good until now
maybe you have some advice?

thanks

PriNova

see my answers in red

thank you for reply

it would be great, to see some results from other trader here.

i trade this on my real account with success.

in the beginning i had have some losses because of the relevant news. i took also weak news and faild. they do not have enough movement to surround the box.

PriNova

maybe a good trade could be at 23:30 GMT
JPY CORE CPI y/y some calendars shows high impact

what do you think?

PriNova

How did the 23:30 trade go?

I am going to try this one for Friday morning:

4:30am GBP http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif GDP q/q (p)


Since the currency is GBP, what would you trade? GBP/USD? or GBP/JPY? or another?

By the way, when do we have to enter the trade by if the news event is 4:30? We have to enter 15 minutes in advance? So we must enter at 4:20 for the entry at 4:35 right? And our objective is to have the box bracket the current price, is this correct?

yes, dreamliner, thats absolutely correct. if news release at 13:00 you have to draw the box before 12:50. the startdate at 13:05 and the enddate at 13:10.

i made some backtest with the news from beginning of this year. my results are good. only take high impact news (forexpeacyarmy.com), because the movement is clear up or down. the mid impact news often waves strong and the timeframe of 5 minutes is too long.
and have 36 news with 28 winners and 8 loosers. thats near 3:1.

the trade at 23:30 is no good trade. at FF calendar shows high impact but at forexpeacearmy only mid impact. and another calendar says low impact. the forecastings are different. but i made best results with forexpeacearmy calendar. but use your own.

if you see the market is flat before the news release you could also put two miss boxes below and above the chart with enddate 5 minutes before news release, but this is not proofen at the moment. try to demoing first.

The 4:30 trade GBP was also a loser.

yes, it was a loser, but i don't take it, because the impact is not to much. on my calendar it shows only 4 stars. i only take news with 5 stars. the really high impact news. the best are:

Trade Balance,
Non-Farm Payrolls
Retail Sales
Interest Rates

and if this news which influence the USD pairs the better is the movement.

This is my journal for the FXBox News trading:

Date: Balance Price Return

04.01.2008: 100 US$ - 10US$
90 US$ + 10US$ + 8$
108 US$

11.01.2008: 108 US$ - 10,8 US$
97,2 US$ + 10,8 US$ + 7,02$
115,02 US$

22.01.2008: 115,02 US$ - 11,5 US$
103,52 US$ + 11,5 US$ + 11,73$
126,75 US$

30.01.2008: 126,75 US$ - 12,67 US$
114,08 US$ + 12,67 US$ + 7,98$
134,73 US$

34,73% Profit in Januar

01.02.2008: 134,73 US$ - 13,47 US$ (Looser)
121,26 US$

05.02.2008: 121,26 US$ - 12,12 US$
109,14 US$ + 12,12 US$ + 10,54$
131,80 US$

06.02.2008: 131,80 US$ - 13,18 US$
118,62 US$ + 13,18 US$ + 7,24$
139,05 US$

07.02.2008: 139,05 US$ - 13,90 US$ (Looser)
125,14 US$

07.02.2008: 125,14 US$ - 12,51 US$
125,14 US$ + 12,51 US$ + 12,13$
149,78 US$

08.02.2008: 149,78 US$ - 14,97 US$
134,81 US$ + 14,97 US$ + 16,46$
166,25 US$

12.02.2008: 166,25 US$ - 16,62 US$
149,62 US$ + 16,62 US$ + 12,13$
178,37 US$

14.02.2008: 178.37 US$ - 17.83US$
160,54 US$ + 17.83US$ + 6,24$
184,61 US$

21.02.2008: 184,61 US$ - 18,46US$
166,15 US$ + 18.46US$ + 12,73$
197,34 US$

46,47 % Profit in Februar

04.03.2008: 197,34 US$ - 19.73US$
177,61 US$ + 19.73US$ + 16,77$
214,11 US$

214.11 US$ - 21,41US$
192,70 US$ + 21.41US$ + 14,13$
228,24 US$

05.03.2008: 228,24 US$ - 22,82 US$
205,42 US$ + 22,82 US$ + 20,30$
248,55 US$

06.03.2008: 248,55 US$ - 24,85 US$
223,70 US$ + 24,85 US$ + 16,90$
265,45 US$

265,45 US$ - 26,54 US$ (Looser)
238,91 US$

07.03.2008: 238,91 US$ - 23,89 US$
215,02 US$ + 23,89 US$ + 25,08$
264,00 US$

264,00 US$ - 26,40 US$
237,60 US$ + 26,40 US$ + 22,44$
286,44 US$

13.03.2008: 286,44 US$ - 28,64 US$
257,80 US$ + 28,64 US$ + 16,04$
302,48 US$

18,03,2008: 302,48 US$ - 30,24 US$ (LOOSER)
272,23 US$

272,23 US$ - 27,22 US$
245,01 US$ + 27,22 US$ + 21,77$
294,00 US$

20,03,2008: 294,00 US$ - 29,40 US$
264,60 US$ + 29,40 US$ + 22,34$
316,34 US$

60,30% profit in March

01,04,2008: 316,34 US$ - 31,63 US$
284,71 US$ + 31,63 US$ + 30,04 $
346,38 US$

04,04,2008: 346,38 US$ - 34,63 US$
311,75 US$ + 34,63 US$ + 21,81$
368,19 US$

368,19 US$ - 36,81 US$ (LOOSER)
331,38 US$

10,04,2008: 331,38 US$ - 33,13 US$
298,25 US$ + 33,13 US$ + 25,84$
357,22 US$

357,22 US$ - 35,72 US$ (LOOSER)
321,50 US$

321,50 US$ - 32,15 US$ (LOOSER)
289,35 US$

15,04,2008: 289,35 US$ - 28,93 US$ (LOOSER)
260,42 US$

22,04,2008: 260,42 US$ - 26,04 US$
234,38 US$ + 26,04 US$ + 23,18$
283,60 US$

23,04,2008: 283,60 US$ - 28,36 US$
255,24 US$ + 28,36 US$ + 16,44$
300,04 US$

24,04,2008: 300,04 US$ - 30,00 US$
270,04 US$ + 30,00 US$ + 33,00$
333,04 US$

5.28% profit in April so far

233,04% profit total

PriNova

PriNova,

Maybe this will be interested For You - most market moving news - this table is from John Kicklighter article on dailyfx.com. .



Regards,

Andrew

What about finding the time when the market is moving very slowly, such as between NY and Asian sessions, and set a hit box?

The best and simplest answer is, if you change the perspective from the brooker providers eye(seller:

Hit-Box:

The lower the possibility is the hit-box will be hit the higher is the premium or even negative.
The higher the posibility is the hit-box will be hit the lower is the premium or negative too.

and vice versa with the miss-box.

this is the basic calculation. behind there are calculations of the premium (payment) price by volatlility, range of boxpips and expiration, (delta, gamma, vega etc.) and their own trend or movement calculations (price action).

well, you will not get much payment even partly loss. and to really gain a lot money, you have to buy a box very expensive and this is not recommend because of risk/reward ratio.

regards PriNova

P.S.: andrew, thanks for the pipnews calendar. good to know that.