Wall Street close watch

I agree with all you said, I can see you know where I am coming from ( I mean all the data, and historical Facts). Yes we are talking about 2 diferent things: 1. The Market and 2. Dow Jones Industrial Index. As for markets, we can go maybe even far back even in pre B.C. time, there is an evidence that even than in Athine, and Sparta or Rome some Stock Exhanges forms begun. However, for my reference I would like, if you can supply me the data, or Chart, or methodology how your friend is calculating the very beginnig or the stock exchange. it is very intersting and realy I want to see the data, or maybe the Chart.

As for the crash, I AGREE all that you said It could wipe easy $25 to $30 Trillion dollars off global markets. Even in my count (doesn't have to be right- it is only my point of view based on data) the correction wave is big. I am preparing one report, and I am going to post it here, but only shortly:

http://www.doske.com/Charts/djgy.jpg

My Chart where you can see the GY is Following DOW from 2002



The last correction in 2002 was about 18% in DJ. that was the last crash. But the money invested then, and the money invested now are:

Stakes invest :

1998 .........$140 Billion in carry trades
2008 .........$1.5 trillion at least is involved

1998 1 major hedge fund LTCM
2008 over 1000 hedge funds

1998 small asian economies collapsed
2008 The world largest economy USA is on the edge

even if we are having correction (so far 11% fron DJ 14200) to 9000 or 9500, that is HUDGE. With all that money involved. I suppose that you know what is behind this bubble burst. That basiclly after the Japan Central bank desition to slash the Interest rates on 0%, Western bankers and hedge funds figured out they could borrow money @ 0% and invest at Wall street or Equity market for 5-12% return. Now, after the Credit and Real estate crunch, and all the bad economy reports:

Fed have only 2 options:

Raise Interest rates: - save the dollar and kill the the market or
Lower the rates: Kill the dollar - save the market.


We know what the option is on play now, so The big Unwind is to be expected, That is the biggest problem of all Funds, banks, and financial institutions. . They cannot return the money as the YEN is stronger and the LOANS are now TOO EXPENSIVE.

According to Donald Trump in his book "why we want you to be rich" he imply that all 401 and other pension funds are gone, That is Trillion of dollars gone, all Baby Boom generation savings. Now the retirement proccess just beggun, so also social and eve rasial problems are to be expected ???


The other topic is The OIL: Last year July - August (I am finding that is the TOP of the market) we had Pick in OIL Production in our civilisation. OPEC just reply, but they are not "capabble" to produst more oil that they made in August. All infrastructure in oil production are 40 years old technology and is not projected for BOOM economies like India and China. That's why we are having wars now, It is OIL. Every Gov know this problem. It is too late for technological correction. But tha main problem is not OUR cars my friend. All cars and vehicles on this world are using less than 10% of all OIL production. The Main one is AGROCULTURE Machinery, Yes that's rigth Food Proccessing, and FOOD collection from the Fileds. We are about to expect a Drastical Increase of FOOD Price.

SO don't anyone tell me that it is FINE, that it si All right -IT is NOT.
Big Deppression, Crisis, maybe WAR (even large one),

Ok I said Small report .. but there is a lot of more, Hope I am going to explain everyting in next report (with my excelent English)

"Technical indicators reveal that the stock market is engaging
in one of the rarest of events, a blowoff, i.e., an accelerating
upward move into a spike reversal that resolves in a crash.
How rare is a stock market blowoff? One has not occurred in modern
history. They are common in fifth waves of Primary and Cycle
degree in commodities, but not in stocks. Even the upward surge
in 1928, the closest thing to a blowoff in the last 276 years,
was followed by a five-month consolidation and a new high on
lesser upside momentum, the typical profile. The last time the
stock market had a commodity-like ending was the year 1720,
which saw the culmination of investment manias in England and
France. That was the last time a wave of Grand Supercycle degree
ended. So in this context, a blowoff is apparently normal stock
market behavior. This advance has the characteristics
of a terminating fifth wave."
-Robert Prechter, excerpt from his February 9th issue of
"The Elliott Wave Theorist" (see Feb.19th Barron's, p.MW46)
The site where you can take a look at the chart and the count is www.elliotwave.com

This in my opinion is quite scarry, forget the 9000 level, at this moment i would not be a bit surprised if we finally bottom around the 3800-5800 area, yes this looks like an impossible thing at the moment but by judjing by what is happening now in the world this looks like a most probable scenario...

I mean I miss our mad EW counting attempts(last time we talked here you were going to short UJ to hell and back, hope you did hehehe), but I do hope you're wrong about the war and currencies bit


What good is the next super-trade going to be if there's no uncontaminated earth or currency left to enjoy it with!

I'm gonna start investing in human-2-cockroach research right NOW!

(Btw, could you post your DJI or S&P count? Aren't the retracement proportions wrong for a 4th wave now?)

Educational

(part 1)

watch all (9 parts)

Robert Prechter, my hero. Forever calling tops in the markets.

Some how the markets don't get it.

They don't understand. They are not supposed to go past EWI's grand high exalted ruler of the EW's prediction business alltime high to end all highs. Opps.

Reminds of the Saddam skit: cross this line in the sand, ok, now let me see you cross this line. Hurumpf, now this line. .................

Hi SL, yes I did short the hell out of the yen, if you remeber I started shorting at the 112.50 area and was fully loaded at 114.50, liqudated at 101, 100, 98 and 96, still holding 10% for the push beyond the 80 level, no to sure as to when this should occur my time elements are calling for quite a bit of going back and forth at the moment so I'm sidelined with just a 10% on that pair for now, we shall see I would start considering the top around the 104.90 area and cautiosly add and take profit all the way to 107 for the expected ride down, we shall see.
As far as a chart with my counts I usually don't bother, it either jumps out at me or it doesn't, if you still insist i will number the fall from the top.\
That said, here are a few points:
Wave 4 never moves beyond of wave 1, that is 13409 or so, next, wave 4 will almost always be a different corrective pattern than wave 2, (it is, do you see it?), wave 4 is ususlly a flat. triangle or a combination (so far so good, right?), wave 4 typically ends when it is within the price range of subwave four of 3(this now could be a subjective count, but for now, at least in my view this is valid) and the wave 4 often subdivides the entire impulse into Fibonacci proportion in time and /or price. Hint, take a look at the time factor on the current wave 4 and the whole or parts of the other waves down, it is quite an interesting picture inmo at the moment.
In any case, i sure do hope that the markets survive this, but at the moment I do not see a silver lining as of yet.

Gene

PS. I'm very intersted in your view on the euro/yen cross, technical and fundamental as well, if you care to share, I'm afraid that I'm so stock in my current view that I might have a case of "Damm it, I said you will do as I said you b-ch", too much confidence over the past hundreds of trades without a loss would do this to you lol, hearing your point of view could perhaps kick start some new analytical thinking in my brain, lol. instead of wiping out a good deal of my profits...

Let see the Charts:

Early warning sign from our friend weekly Stoch. No Volume, no Buys, No sells. After yesterday's NY sessions it is looks like the banks are aside for now. Maybe this Monster above Our HEADS is the answer?? To scary to make a move ??
Maybe this time Full moon party is over earlier??

http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-76.png

And, How about Daily chart???
Hmm.. Not so Good Charlie, not this time....

http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-77.png

Verrah nice
Good, good.

Hmya, looks like a push up is in order once UJ breaks that descending kinda-channel. It's already trying to turn, but struggling.

Ah, I've found that can be quite detrimental

Well, you know me and fundamentals. It goes about as far as "Toyota is happy because it can sell cars here cheaply" and "EUR has more yield than JPY, so it's in demand over it". Given EUR's hawked up homies, I suspect this will remain to EJ's advantage for another while now, and a holding and/or tightening bias should keep EUR pretty robust in general until this changes visibly.

Technically I believe we're due a bit of a break on almost everything connected to EUR, but the question remains when that exactly will be.
It feels like it's drawing closer though, and IMHO it's already begun on EURAUD.

As for EURJPY, that has a middle at around 160 we're above, so until that breaks down again, THEN the age old TL goes without further rescue attempts, it might get tricky.
We're probably headed for a spike at that top connecting TL(although we already are beginning to stall around a bit after the strong rally, but might just be pausing, waiting for momentum to catch up) and given the way that it's angled I don't think it's "worth" much in terms of relevance. But I don't know.

The first interesting junction will probably be 161.4, then that middle.

I've suggested some wave and formation ideas, but really I am stepping aside until EURUSD itself starts revealing real weakness. As I've hinted at before(but I think this escaped many), EUR has been behaving very unified most of the time, i.e. it's either been very in demand across the board, or taking a beating almost everywhere. A lot of eyes on the prize I suspect.

Anyhow. Here's a rough EJ jumble(not so perfectly sure about the 156 area marked in, but since I had it there from an earlier marking in I left it):

Hi Sl, thanks for the analyses, unfortunatelly , or perhaps not, time will tell, I'm also biased short, but on top of it, had made a a littel blunder of scalling in with an extra zero behind one of the positions, didn't notice untill a few days later, too late, so the whole plan now is really in a survival mode, will see. I see the potential now for a top of the second wave and a really sizeable drop in three of three that suppose to develop, below 149 on one scenario and around the 152 area on the other if we are in fact in a triangle (likely i think for now)This analyses becomes invalid if this wave breaks 166.66, we shall see. I agree on the Euro though, can you just smell something brewing?! Perhaps it is my imagination, fundamentally with the latest numbers, rate diffrentials and so on, Euro should be going up and up and up, techically speaking we are in a multi year strong uptrend, but... I think the correction is immenent it is just a matter of time, i think that five of 5 just finished or is very near completion within that wedge that will strongly corect to the downside, that said, something in the charts to confirm this wild guess would be nice to say the least.

Gene

Ambac Has $1.66 Billion Loss, Wider Than Estimated, on Subprime Writedowns
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...HIc&refer=home

The first rumbling begins?

Key words: "than estimated".

I'm waiting for that "oh, so it ISN'T all over with an elegant, simple toodleeoo writedown orgy" moment.

Let's see if my journal ideas unfold..or whether it's a little early still

You're welcome
EJ's been a bit tricky, both to chart and trade due to EURGBP as said, so I feel a bit iffy about it all.

Well we're getting steeper and steeper, usually a sign of a coming collapse.
If that were to happen, then the loss of the lower TL of the rising wedge should have more sell orders, is my guess.
We'll see. It will tell us soon enough.

Currently trying to see GBPUSD above 2.0 again with a bit of parallel EURGBP give-back

Despite all the wibbly wobbly the carry and stock market still isn't terribly clear, but still terribly volatile.

Volatile, you can say this again, I really don't see anything long term that I can be really sure of at the moment, (hold that thought, Euro, for a year at least, but not at this height, my head starts to spin when i look down) just some scalps here and there, as far as the pound goes it really displaying indecision on the grand scale I had whole bunch of shorts that i was holding for 1.8600-1.92 levels, got rid of most or them by now no more patience left, techically we have to see another decline, time wise though i think this may happen now after the summer, but who knows, indesision on the grand scale at works, nasty moves inmo, the only way to make some money is to switch your opinion every few days or so, lol

Gene

Credit Suisse Posts Wider Loss Than Analysts Estimated on Debt Writedowns
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...ozI&refer=home

There it is again.... "wider than estimated"...

Three times a charm?
Bit like Candyman, perhaps?

Wonder when it's gonna go down, literally.
Feels like this time it will be the pro USD panic driven move, EURJPY lower coinciding with the EURUSD, EURGBP crash perhaps?

The blueprint I've got, now will they build it?

DJII: another test of upper trendline @ DJ. As is not broken yet, suggested that Bear market is not ended, and the last rally is corrective:
http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-82.png

My crystal ball says: TOMORROW! Right after the openning.... We wait .....

And our Monster is on Play:

http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-76.png

Those results together with IFO is exactly what I was waiting for, but will it play out accordingly now is the big question?

Yepp...well I don't know about the carry trade and such, but EURUSD has got it's interim top in for now I believe and once we drop below 1.56 it should be clear.
I'd like to point out that the current pop down on EJ coincided with EURUSD's and EURGBP's weakness, exactly the point I was trying to make with my 2 chart comparison a few pages back.

We've already lost the ascending triangle's TL, so I'm just hoping for some folks to think "oh boy, a bargain buy" so that SOMEONE pushes this thing into a sell-able rally as the equilibrium is out of whack now.

All that USDJPY needs to do now is hold still and EJ is dead meat
If it decides to outrise EURUSD's fall, well, that'd be a different outcome.

I may just trade the two seperately and try and avoid the cross best I can, especially as long as the CHF carry is strong and not in synch with the JPY. What's up with that

I'ma trade the obvious first.

Where's Merlin, if this USD rallies hard enough he can finally sell some oil futures again!

Hi SL, yesteray I had mentioned here that 23rd would be an interesting day for the dollar, assuming that I was right, there is some hard evidence popping up now, we shall see a relentless rise in the dollar, somewhere around the 74 area untill the 4th of May but since that day falls on a Sunday than most likely untill the 5th, 2nd of May would be my distant second choice. As far as the crosses go, Euro has a lot more to fall, so does the pound, although on the pound the picture is a bit complex at the moment, yen on the other hand as I had previously mentioned needs a bit of a rise more, 105-107 area, notice though that it is allready almost a 1000 pips off the lows, not too much room to the upside, the rally is coming into a final wave, so my assumptions would be for the crosses to correct lower near term since there is a a lot more room down than up, but who knows, yen has a big cycle date on 7/20, possibly a reversal so all things considered I would make an assumption of a rather nice sell around 107 area if it coincides with my date and the price leading up to it, or this could be a reversal up for quite some time, possibly even till the end of the year, but than we would have to face a new low, or test the previous one at least till July.
Let's see how this plays out, are you still thinking of the pound above 2.000?

Gene

Yea, seems it should get at least to 73.50ish and better. There is a LOT of room once stops collapse, all the way to 74.5 - 75.50 it's basically "all clear".

Well, if 1.96 collapses I'd be hard pressed for bullishness. I'm still a believer in the EURxxx coupling, so maybe EURGBP will shift things and behavior around a bit.

I'm going to focus a bit more on EUR I guess
Cable has just been a bad boy, as usual.

How about keeping the charts a bit smaller so there is no shift < > back and forth to read topic, please.

it is standard 800x600 pxl, works fine on 17" and 19", but Ok, I will post the next one 760x 560 No Probl..