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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #74,261
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:22pm Apr 21, 2008 2:22pm
Quoting toyboy tramp
Where can I read up on the r'ship twixt the Dow and the Geppy, or if anyone is kind enough to expound, I'm learning as much about this beast as I can.

Thanks
Lets assume that dj / s&p move the same ... so it could be s&p or dj-30 that you track.

If the indices are going up it means that the investors are bullihs and there is risk tolerance will be taken on ( ie carry tardes will be bought). If the indices are going down it means that investors are nervous and there will be risk aversion ie carry trades will go down or 'unwind'

The connection is not always there ... but 90% of the time it is.

For example pushed 50 points out of the last move of the YM ( dj e mini futures) but gj only moved up a few pips.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #74,262
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:23pm Apr 21, 2008 2:23pm
Quoting jarroo
The trick with Patience is that it takes practise just like entries and exits. Over time your confidence will grow with your account. With confidence comes discipline and belief in yourself.

Trust me, when your signal tells you to go long and everyone in this thread is saying short, it will test your convictions . . .and you sit back and .

Jim
That's good advice. I'm a rookie, so I'll take it. If you want to hear advice from a rookie, this is what I have to say. It takes loosing your job, almost going broke, until you hit rock bottom, and you can only go up!
  • #74,263
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:28pm Apr 21, 2008 2:28pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Lets assume that dj / s&p move the same ... so it could be s&p or dj-30 that you track.

If the indices are going up it means that the investors are bullihs and there is risk tolerance will be taken on ( ie carry tardes will be bought). If the indices are going down it means that investors are nervous and there will be risk aversion ie carry trades will go down or 'unwind'

The connection is not always there ... but 90% of the time it is.

For example pushed 50 points out of the last move of the YM ( dj e mini futures) but gj only moved up a few pips.
hi dear Malcolmb , agree with your viewpoint
  • #74,264
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:29pm Apr 21, 2008 2:29pm
Quoting toyboy tramp
Where can I read up on the r'ship twixt the Dow and the Geppy, or if anyone is kind enough to expound, I'm learning as much about this beast as I can.

Thanks

After 1997 the big financial crisis in japan, The bank of Japan slash the interest rates to 0%. Western bankers and hedge funds figured out they could borrow at0% and invest it on Wall Street with 5% - 15%
Now all that money - trillions of dollars are borrowed from Japan banks. When house crises start in US, and US$ went south, everyone is trying to return the money, as the rates are now more than 15%. That's why big Banks are having a problem. The grear Undwind is about to Start. But this is another Topic. Please find attached chart, and you can see when exactly the III cycle started with Bank of Japan helps, and from then GY and DJ are together..

http://www.doske.com/Charts/djgy.jpg
  • #74,265
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:32pm Apr 21, 2008 2:32pm
Quoting jarroo
The trick with Patience is that it takes practise just like entries and exits. Over time your confidence will grow with your account. With confidence comes discipline and belief in yourself.

Trust me, when your signal tells you to go long and everyone in this thread is saying short, it will test your convictions . . .and you sit back and .

Jim
agreed

ps:just like me now ...every one is short but i'm long ...
  • #74,266
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:40pm Apr 21, 2008 2:40pm
Quoting shahroodi
agreed

ps:just like me now ...every one is short but i'm long ...

Not Everyone
  • #74,267
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:46pm Apr 21, 2008 2:46pm
Quoting Piters
Not Everyone
yeahhhhhhhhhhttp://qsmile.com/qsimages/93.gif cheers buddhttp://qsmile.com/qsimages/93.gif
are you long too???
  • #74,268
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:50pm Apr 21, 2008 2:50pm
I see the 60 min being a possible bull flag.

The MACD histogram is getting smaller indciating a possible reversal , there maybe support at 204 zone. If we get any movement towards the top of the flag / linear regression channel it could be a 200 pip move up from current levels.

The rapid rsi is in the green for now .. with no buy triggers yet..

I do have bullish divergence on rsi on 30 min and a buy trigger with an entry of 205 ish (which would also be above the weekly pivot of 204.67). 1st target 206.32 ( 50% fib retrace of overnight move). If in fact the rapid rsi on the 30 min is showing a pivot then this move should happen within the next 6 - 10 hours,

Note also how the 20 sma is ' kissing" the 50 sma. The long entry of 205 would give time to find direction and confirmation that the 20 sma is not going to cross down over the 50 sma on the 60 min


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj116.png Size: 157 KB
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  • #74,269
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:50pm Apr 21, 2008 2:50pm
Quoting shahroodi
yeahhhhhhhhhhttp://qsmile.com/qsimages/93.gif cheers buddhttp://qsmile.com/qsimages/93.gif
are you long too???
Yes, small one.. but I am 25pips in profit... still chasing my targets
after 8h on that support level.. and Dow starts Up..

(and ... tides,.... Moons... )
  • #74,270
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:51pm Apr 21, 2008 2:51pm
Quoting shahroodi
yeahhhhhhhhhhttp://qsmile.com/qsimages/93.gif cheers buddhttp://qsmile.com/qsimages/93.gif
are you long too???
piters dont go inside the well with shahroodis rope because it isnot revocable
  • #74,271
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:53pm Apr 21, 2008 2:53pm
Why are you long?

BTW I'm not being condescending, I went long @ 207 and watched it fall to 204, so I figure this counter-trend rally is a blip and it's going to go down big, but then Breeze and Sharoodi are like hello 211, and the trend just doesn't explain how the geppy is going to go back up, is it the Dow?
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #74,272
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:54pm Apr 21, 2008 2:54pm
GJ1h
GJ2h
DJIA MINI-SIZED
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DJIA MINI-SIZED.GIF Size: 5 KB
Attached Images
  • #74,273
  • Apr 21, 2008 3:00pm Apr 21, 2008 3:00pm
Apple , Amazon and UPS reporting Wednesday
Yahoo after hours tomorrow.

CAD interest rates tomorrow. Thye are expected to drops rates to 3% (0.5% reduction)
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #74,274
  • Apr 21, 2008 3:05pm Apr 21, 2008 3:05pm
Quoting toyboy tramp
Why are you long?

BTW I'm not being condescending, I went long @ 207 and watched it fall to 204, so I figure this counter-trend rally is a blip and it's going to go down big, but then Breeze and Sharoodi are like hello 211, and the trend just doesn't explain how the geppy is going to go back up, is it the Dow?

I mentioned a few postings back bull flag.

We have some big name earnings this week. Why would they be any different from last week ????

Even with high oil prices and BOA reporting heavy losses the markets are still up for the day ... go figure....however the daily on the YM does look a little like a reversal pattern.

Bulls are very much in control right now of the North American markets.

Risk tolerance is back and that would make the gj go up .

If Yahoo disappoints tomorrow that would be another story as the rumour oif microsoft / Yahoo deal is still out there and anything that effects that may be taken badly by the markets
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  • #74,275
  • Apr 21, 2008 3:08pm Apr 21, 2008 3:08pm
Seen this before....look at daily DJIA.
Rally, then uncertainty=B/E, then down, then oh shit.
Start dates; December 21, Feb 01, Feb 26, March 24....and now ???
  • #74,276
  • Apr 21, 2008 3:40pm Apr 21, 2008 3:40pm
Quoting shahroodi
agreed

ps:just like me now ...every one is short but i'm long ...
Looking for bullish Price Action in this area (Yellow).
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #74,277
  • Apr 21, 2008 3:56pm Apr 21, 2008 3:56pm
man, everyone's droping rates.....

Quoting malcolmb14
Apple , Amazon and UPS reporting Wednesday
Yahoo after hours tomorrow.

CAD interest rates tomorrow. Thye are expected to drops rates to 3% (0.5% reduction)
  • #74,278
  • Apr 21, 2008 4:05pm Apr 21, 2008 4:05pm
GBP/JPY's sharp pull back from 208.99 and break of 205.98 minor support indicates an intraday top is already in place. Outlook is turned consolidative for the moment. Nevertheless, downside of the current pull back is still expected to be contained by 203.54 minor support and bring rally resumption. As discussed before, success break of short term falling channel resistance and 205.09 resistance confirms that decline from 241.35 has already completed at 192.60. Further rally is expected to 210.56/211.22 resistance zone (100% projection of 192.60 to 205.09 from 198.07 at 210.56 and 38.2% retracement of 241.35 to 192.60 at 211.22).
  • #74,279
  • Apr 21, 2008 4:12pm Apr 21, 2008 4:12pm
Forexlion I think thats an analysis from actionforex.com thanks for posting that
  • #74,280
  • Apr 21, 2008 4:16pm Apr 21, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting lilmoe
man, everyone's droping rates.....
Canada keeps pretty much in line with the US ... our #1 trading partner
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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