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Sweet, sweet Oil

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 17, 2007 8:49pm Oct 17, 2007 8:49pm
Oil just reached an all time high.. and now formed a Daily pinbar..

Due for a downfall? Anyone trading Oil?
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  • #2
  • Oct 17, 2007 9:32pm Oct 17, 2007 9:32pm
My partner does, he's been holding oil around 73ish I believe. He says he's expecting a pullback to below 80 then upward. Wouldn't doubt it.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #3
  • Oct 26, 2007 8:35am Oct 26, 2007 8:35am
Just heard the news from CNBC about a HUUUGE amount of call option buyers for oil at the $100 strike....
  • #4
  • Oct 26, 2007 8:42am Oct 26, 2007 8:42am
Quoting Palmer
Just heard the news from CNBC about a HUUUGE amount of call option buyers for oil at the $100 strike....
Whoa... FIBER at 1.55 then... but if we know it, its not going to happen..
lol..

Efficient Market Theory.
  • #5
  • Oct 26, 2007 8:45am Oct 26, 2007 8:45am
Just saw a headline - Oil Tops $92 as US call Iran a Terrorist State. WTF!!! US has been calling Iran terrorist since 2000. Oil prices are so out of whack with reality! I hope the fall comes soon and wipes out as many oil specs as possible.
  • #6
  • Oct 26, 2007 8:53am Oct 26, 2007 8:53am
I saw another report where the market price of oil 'should' be at about $60 per barrel, given the current reserve levels, this that and the other thing. A lot of this is, and guess I hate to say it, trader driven. The oil kings are loving it as usual. There's no reason for it to be as high as it is but the only thing we can do is live with it....
  • #7
  • Oct 26, 2007 9:56am Oct 26, 2007 9:56am
Agree with the previous posters.
Oil is being manipulated by the futures market which will swing on any rumor.
The futures market generally reflects the functional aspect of the commodity, but not here.
NY market what else can you expect. ( only 1/2 sarc )
I hope the beast is caged soon.
  • #8
  • Oct 26, 2007 10:18am Oct 26, 2007 10:18am
There's a guy by the name of Ed Wallace here in Dallas - Fort Worth who does a weekly car show on radio. He is probably the most knowledgeable guy in the industry and has done many studies on oil and gasoline supply and demand. He says the ration is the same as it was when oil was around $10. You can prove it by going to the DOE web site. Demand has inceased, but so has supply. Do a google search on his name and you can access archives of articles he's written about it.

Here's a question. What keeps an OPEC country from funding 'traders' to the tune of a couple million, and manipulating the price? The Saudis alone could fund several thousand of these 'traders' and move the market. The COT report doesn't contain any information as to who is actually a commercial, speculator, etc. There is alomost no transparency in the futures market as to the actual entity that has a short or long position. Add in all the other OPEC countries, and they have so much money they can actually cripple any currency they want over time. Hence the move in the Middle East to Euros from Dollars.
  • #9
  • Oct 26, 2007 10:20am Oct 26, 2007 10:20am
Sorry - in the statement above , " He says the ration is the same" should read "He says the ratio is the same"
  • #10
  • Nov 14, 2007 8:27pm Nov 14, 2007 8:27pm
Just found this nugget from my favorite research tool. Its a shame that the N Americans will continue to beg OPEC with all this oil in the area.
If only the powers that be were as pragmatic as the OPEC ministers.
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArti...79935228219560

Here's a small sampling from the editorial
" Addressing the "peak oil" argument, the head of Saudi Aramco — the state oil company — said Wednesday that the world today has reserves that will last 100 to 200 years.
Big new discoveries in the Middle East and elsewhere — such as the 8-billion-barrel strike announced last week by Brazil — also challenge the thesis that oil is running out. This is why the Saudis think the high prices won't last."
  • #11
  • Mar 4, 2008 7:54am Mar 4, 2008 7:54am
Hey guys,

I would like to discuss here a little bit about tommorows OPEC meeting.

One of main discussions will be about extra high oil price, during that there is a possible downward movement.

According to this, Gold and Silver will be dragged down as well.

Also, Eur/Usd pair is under question mark. Now ECB started to talk about the fact that very weak dollar is bad, maybe tommorows day will be the day, when we see correction knowing the fact that EU is moving with gold?

I hope this discussion will help to all of us
  • #12
  • Mar 4, 2008 11:00am Mar 4, 2008 11:00am
Dunno if oil is overpriced or not but I would be interested, should there be any talk of proven reserves underground in OPEC members.
Second topic to my liking would be basket of currencies other than dollars, accepted on Iranian Oil bourse and its performance.

Gold and silver going down is somewhat misshoot IMO, maybe a price stall is an option, but with the investors running for cover into tangible assetes (gold, silver, other metals) I dont see prices sliding down any time soon. More so, cause you dont get gold production up and running overnight and prices skyrocketed virutally overnight so to speak.
  • #13
  • Mar 4, 2008 1:47pm Mar 4, 2008 1:47pm
Quoting keramikus
Dunno if oil is overpriced or not but I would be interested, should there be any talk of proven reserves underground in OPEC members.
Second topic to my liking would be basket of currencies other than dollars, accepted on Iranian Oil bourse and its performance.

Gold and silver going down is somewhat misshoot IMO, maybe a price stall is an option, but with the investors running for cover into tangible assetes (gold, silver, other metals) I dont see prices sliding down any time soon. More so, cause you dont get gold production up and running overnight and prices skyrocketed virutally overnight so to speak.

It's going down becouse of tommorow
  • #14
  • Mar 4, 2008 2:00pm Mar 4, 2008 2:00pm
euro = gold.
  • #15
  • Apr 21, 2008 7:56am Apr 21, 2008 7:56am
This is getting out of hand. This thing just won't stop climbing. Hitting $117 and staying above 116.50.
I am looking at $3.50 and above for gas prices in the south east, and more in other places.
Some one needs to do something, and do it fast. When travel season gets here they always raise prices. There will be no traveling. Air lines will keep falling out of business.

I guess Bush administration is allowing this because there so heavily invested in oil, let it ride as high as possible in his last few months in office, and take profits just before he leaves and the new president does something to drive prices down?

If this thing is allowed to go much further the whole country will shut down.
  • #16
  • Apr 21, 2008 8:05am Apr 21, 2008 8:05am
Housing will not recover while gas is so high because people won't buy houses in fear of not being able to afford it later when gas is 5 bucks a gallon!
For the first time I am of the opinion USA is spiraling downward, and no bottom in site.
  • #17
  • Apr 21, 2008 8:54am Apr 21, 2008 8:54am
Quoting fxbroker
So what do you want us to discuss?
I thought you wanted us to discuss how to trade oil
What happens with oil price effects all currency trading. Especially the $ pairs.

If you have oil opinions post in here.
But as long as oil is climbing the $ will not recover. Do you see the relevance now?
  • #18
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:20pm Apr 21, 2008 1:20pm
Interesting article on CNBC, exactly about what you want to know.

Oil prices, which are setting fresh records nearly every day, are likely to keep climbing until the weak US dollar starts recovering and more supplies become available.

Full Story

  • #19
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:23pm Apr 21, 2008 1:23pm
Quoting cesarnc
Interesting article on CNBC, exactly about what you want to know.

Oil prices, which are setting fresh records nearly every day, are likely to keep climbing until the weak US dollar starts recovering and more supplies become available.

Full Story

i hope new supply is found soon then.....
  • #20
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:29pm Apr 21, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
What happens with oil price effects all currency trading. Especially the $ pairs.

If you have oil opinions post in here.
But as long as oil is climbing the $ will not recover. Do you see the relevance now?
oil is partly rising because of the dollar dropping, not the other way around. and gasoline is more expensive during the summer months because the summer heat requires another blend that doesnt boil/evaporate as easily
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