Wall Street close watch

Bunton,

I think you missed Merlin's point of the Fed history and what the economy was like pre-fed.

Makes me think of the expression "Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it".

Sun

http://www.federalreserve.gov/KIDS/

I've posted this before
(AND taken the tour!)

Market's sentiment: chest pain :

It's ok life's a game ....nonews is good news

I wouldn't call Google earnings "no news".

Up $90 in a day, which made Dow and most other indices jump.

Its the usual market, rallying while waiting for the next catastrophe to tank.

DT-There is no next catastrophe. The market bottom was made on March 10.

That's an interesting take and one I've heard before

I am with you DT !!!
=================

Ok... DJ or Dow Jones Industrial Index ($DJ). Historicly I can go back up to 31.Oct.1970. We are now in SuperCycle III, started from 01.Nov.1974; and in Cycle III started 01.Nov.2002 As the Wave III is impulsive and we are in Bull market LONG term targets are far, far away. Just keep on mind that these cycles are huge, take from few years to decades to be completed.

CYCLES (approximate durations given):

SUPER CYCLE: [from years to decade]
CYCLE: [ one year to few years]
PRIMARY: [few months to couple of years]
INTERMEDIATE: [weeks to months]


http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-67.png


BUT, before that, we have to complete the retracement or Corrective Pattern ABC, witch when you look on this time frames and cycles, it is little bit scary thing, can go Down Bellow 10000 actualy expecting area between 9076.76 and 9872.95; Also I would like to point on lower trendline, very strong one, started back 4.July.2003 and up to now been tested more then 10 times.

http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-68.png

Dj has been ranking for last 4 months in range between 12700 and 11700, finally we broke the resistance and now we are heading to 13220.80 or so to complete wave B of our ABC correction. After that we are back in most scariest wave, Wave C to complete this Primary cycle. When we start the retracement from 13220 area (wave B) and we broke the most powerful trendline I have ever Seen, Then you know that we are in Wave C...

http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-69.png

From the other hand, Completition on wave B gave us a right Shoulder of Head and Shoulder formation on Weekly chart. Decline below the trend line (blue), confirms very bearish pattern, projecting again the same target 9500 - 9700 area. That's I Call CRASH.

http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-71.png

I haven't posted for quite a while, but couldn't resist this time, Piters, after seeing your Eliot wave counts I only have one question, did it ever occur to you to start from the beginning and not from the end?! Just a thought, and as an after thought I will not coment on the geppy here, but will make a small coment on the Dow. It is my opinion, together with a few known authorities on Elliot, to say the least, if you start from the begining that we are in the wave I of supercycle down, that's right bear wave down, just get the whole data going back a a century and a half and you should see that we had just made a very significant top back in November, now in this wave one we had allready the failure of the fifith largest US inv bank such as Bear Sterns, if not for the bailout from the fed the whole financial system could of crumbled. Now we haven't even completed five waves down yet to mark as the 1, can you imagine the implication of a wave 3 of III, lol. Yap the bottom was in allright on March 10th. This is a classic bear market rally, also known as the suckers rally, very characteristic of the bear market, classic to say the least, you just hang on for a BIT, THOSE SCARRY LEVELS OF 9000 ON THE DOW are not even in the vecinity of a potential bottom, lets see what your opinion is by the same time next year when we are well below those levels.
In any case, Elliot is highly subjective, BUT if you do the counts you must start from the beginning and not the middle or some other place otherwise it is just garbage.
In any case I wasn't trying to offend anyone by this post just simply trying to make you look at the Grand picture.

I agree with you that EW is highly subjective. The best data, in electronic form I found is from Esignal, back to 1970. This data is Accurate. You can use the same data and run a simulation for period provided. I appriciate your oppinion, but if you have a different point of view, please send me or post your Chart, with all data from Begining till now. I am not counting SuperCycles, but with data provided, and the numbers of waves and subwaves this is the results. However, EW Principle is not a legitime theory, but a story, point of view. This gives the EW analyst freedom, flexibility and subjective aproach. Thank you again Gene for your time and your point, and please if you can supply me with accurate data from the begining till now, I promise that I am going to revaluate my charts...

Ciao.

Here's my EW look at the Dow which shows 4 waves completed of 5 of a greater 5 wave pattern. Although the chart doesn't show, this is based on data going back to 1920.

Good.

So we'd better mention username and password in our Will so our grandchildren will be able to take profit off the 5th wave in 2085 or so.

I would be 112 years old by then and given the amount of booze I'm subjected to, I don't think I can make it.

No need to wait that long

The final 5th wave of 5 of 5 is all that is left to go.

Price zones 14900-15200 and timeframe May'09-Nov'09 unless 11800 gives way on the downside before then. Then I guess it will be a 5th wave failure and the true bear market will have begun. If that is the case then I see downside levels of at least 8800, or the 2002 lows of 7132.45 or lower still.

With all my respect gene, I have seen some of your excellent calls last year, but even now as you can see so far 3 analysis or DJ counts on this thread and all different. Yes you are right, it is important where you are starting from. I meet also few Elliot Authorities in my life, and all of them had different count as well, but the problem is I haven't meet anyone who started from beginning, because no one knows where exactly the beginning is:



http://www.doske.com/Charts/DJ2.png
Little History:

"People on Wall Street found it difficult to analyze the daily jumble of up-a-quarter and down-an-eighth or whether stocks generally were rising, falling or staying even. WSJ journalist Charles Dow (1851-1902) founder and first editor of WSJ, devised his stock average to make sense of this confusion. He began in 1884 with 11 stocks, most of them railroads (for most analysts that is the beginning). Railroads were among the biggest and sturdiest companies in America at that time, which is why they dominated Dow's first average. Few stocks of industrial companies were publicly traded, and those were considered highly speculative.

On May 26, 1896, he introduced the industrial average (however this is the beginning for others). In October of that year, Dow's original average shed the last of its non-railroad stocks and became the 20-stock railroad average. To complete this line of history, the utilities average came along in 1929 -- more than a quarter-century after Dow's death at age 51 in 1902 -- and the railroad average was renamed the transportation average in 1970

On October 4, 1916 a 20 stock Dow was officially introduced replacing the 12 stock Dow (that is the beginning for others). The 20 stock Dow was back calculated to Dec 14, 1914. To maintain consistency when the 20 Stock Dow was lounched in October 1916, the back-calculated values were incororated into the history"

I am having a dilemma, with your call, as you are saying that "if you start from the beginning that we are in the wave I of supercycle down, that's right bear wave down" . If you are saying that we are in the wave I of Supercycle (???? what supercycle, count, number.. of what GrSuperCycle. can you elaborate Please), and you meant supercycle I, that I can say it is impossible, as starting price should be positive and first waves (1,3, and 5 are motive, while 2 and 4 are corrective.

http://www.doske.com/Charts/dow100.gif


The First graph is generated based on data form DJ starting from 03.Jan.1900, Txt file with the data attached...
Anyway Let me then thank you to you, for my new TASK, So far I got the closing prices back to 1885 and I am preparing another analysis, (maybe after my easter holidays - this weekend, but maybe before) this time from the beginning, so be tuned. I am revaluating my charts!!!



Peace with you my friend !!!

Country of United Nations (?) celebrates Easter this weekend (?). Okayyy.

, yeah, We, in UN are celebrating easter this weekend...

Hi Piters, actually the data I was reffering to is from the Elliot Wave Theorist, it goes back up the late 1700"s, it is my opinion, not just on the structure of the waves but also, and just as important, the balooning of credit in the financial markets and the social mood leading up to this the final 5th of the Grand Super Cycle. It is also my opinion that we had entered a very big corrective stage, as far as the corrections goes we haven't even finished a corrective wave (a) and just take a look at what had allready happened, the credit markets are tightening despite all of the efforts of the central banks, whatever is being done will have less and less effect(example: rate cuts up to now). Those effects will last for less and less period of time. We are now in the 4th wave on the Dow, perhaps the top was allready made, most likely not though as i do see a brief spike through the 13000 to 13200 levels, when that top is there we will see a wave 5 or the end of (a) a corective (b) will follow, where a euphoria will set in as the rally will be swift and take us up violently, "suckers rally"( perhaps some concentrated action by the world powers to stabilize the markets, most likely inmo at this time). And then my friend hang on to your pants as we shall witness one of the most spectacular crashes in our lifetimes, i predict that some markets will seize to exist all together(btw the auction bond market is allready dissapearing) can you guess what would be the catalyst? My guess is derivatives. There is unfortunatelly a very sad part to all of this as the c wave will ultimatelly culminate in a war, a big one, based on the magnitude of the wave possibly a thirld world war.
In any case you can contact the Elliot wave theorist for the chart, if you are intersted, or you can take my word for it and brace yourself, by the way i wouldn't hold any significant amount of money in any currency when we enter the (c) wave down.
I trully hope that I'm wrong but unfortunatelly there are toooo many signs all pointing to the one and only conclusion....

Gene

By the way tomorrow looks like could be a rather spectacular day for the dollar, when i say spectacular i don't mean good or bad I simply say "significant" inmo, as well as the jpy crosses...