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Breeze....Update on GBP/JPY

  • #2,641
  • Apr 21, 2008 5:31am Apr 21, 2008 5:31am
Quoting dk143wvc
Good Morning!

I was watching this thread...I went short at 207.54.

Why? The MACD was on downtrend even though the GBP/JPY was inching up.

The bottom of this is at 205.10 which is off the 62 EMA. If it stays above that, it should bounce back up....if it closes below that on the 60 minute...GBP/JPY will go down to 204.25
Yes I scalp this pair aswell and I got in at 206.90, a little later than the 207.54 but i like it to break through physc barriers so hence the reason I let it run 10 pips past 206. As soon as I was up around 45 pips, i moved in to BE and moved my stop accordingly. I got stoped out bout an hour ago after moving my stop to lock in 100 pips ( got 105 in the end). I was AFK so I could have probably adjusted, but 100 pips for a couple of hours aint bad.

I now have a stop entry for the rebound if it happens, if it moves further south then I will look at other entry options.

Good luck
  • #2,642
  • Apr 21, 2008 5:47am Apr 21, 2008 5:47am
looks like we dropped a bit more
  • #2,643
  • Apr 21, 2008 6:01am Apr 21, 2008 6:01am
Quoting Evilgoat
looks like we dropped a bit more
yup...looks like we could go to 203's now
  • #2,644
  • Apr 21, 2008 6:25am Apr 21, 2008 6:25am
cooooommmmmmeeeeee oooooonnnnnn bullls. Im in at 204.85, up a quick 45 pips so Ive moved to BE for a stress free trade
  • #2,645
  • Apr 21, 2008 6:40am Apr 21, 2008 6:40am
We are going UP now...if the following occurs.

204.28 is the bottom.

204.81 is the 38.2% retrace for the move from 198.04-208.99

4 hour candle close in 20 minutes

all it needs to do is close above there

Oversold ready to move up IMO

and we have a bullish butterfly

208.00 here we come again


GBP news really shook the tree this morning

Just my thoughts
The only sovereign I can allow to rule me is reason.
  • #2,646
  • Apr 21, 2008 6:49am Apr 21, 2008 6:49am
Quoting pearsonfx
We are going UP now...if the following occurs.

204.28 is the bottom.

204.81 is the 38.2% retrace for the move from 198.04-208.99

4 hour candle close in 20 minutes

all it needs to do is close above there

Oversold ready to move up IMO

and we have a bullish butterfly

208.00 here we come again


GBP news really shook the tree this morning

Just my thoughts
I'm with ya I got entries setup for the ride upwards YEEEHAW!
  • #2,647
  • Apr 21, 2008 7:34am Apr 21, 2008 7:34am
HELLO PEOPLE.......Im back sorry for taking so long....i see the market went the other way round.....but the trend is still up...

Breeze
Market Master
  • #2,648
  • Edited 7:50am Apr 21, 2008 7:47am | Edited 7:50am
New Positions

long @
205.20 X 10
205.18 X 10
205.17 X 10
206.00.........waiting
207.00
207.48
207.80.........waiting
208.00.........waiting
208.22.........waiting

The ADX is shopwing signs of recorvery on GBP/JPY

long YEN @

103.72.........very heavily
103.33.........very heavily

Stop hunting is over....time to re-position....Note i have taken Prfts on my NZD @ 7964....

Breeze
Market Master
  • #2,649
  • Apr 21, 2008 7:54am Apr 21, 2008 7:54am
stop hunting? lmao

They call it retracement, Grandpa
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #2,650
  • Apr 21, 2008 7:57am Apr 21, 2008 7:57am
Quoting karmostaji
stop hunting? lmao

They call it retracement, Grandpa
I still use the old system of trading.....thanx for enlightening me...

Breeze
Market Master
  • #2,651
  • Apr 21, 2008 7:57am Apr 21, 2008 7:57am
Quoting Breeze
HELLO PEOPLE.......Im back sorry for taking so long....i see the market went the other way round.....but the trend is still up...

Breeze
Market Master
REALLY? I see the up trend is over or very nearly over.
longer term picture: A top should have formed or it will form before the 24th of April, if at any time this top is broken after that we will not make a new major top until 21st of May to 6th of June, possible date is 27th/28th(a low on daily chart must form before it takes out the first top). Quote taken from my journal at http://www.fxsurfer.com/forums/showt...=4297#post4297
I might be wrong and I can accept that. I see you make a bunch with all your added positions, I believe you could make a lot better trader if you looked at timing.
  • #2,652
  • Apr 21, 2008 8:04am Apr 21, 2008 8:04am
Quoting svengali
REALLY? I see the up trend is over or very nearly over.
longer term picture: A top should have formed or it will form before the 24th of April, if at any time this top is broken after that we will not make a new major top until 21st of May to 6th of June, possible date is 27th/28th(a low on daily chart must form before it takes out the first top). Quote taken from my journal at http://www.fxsurfer.com/forums/showt...=4297#post4297
I might be wrong and I can accept that. I see you make a bunch with all your added positions, I believe you could make a lot better trader if you looked at timing.
from what I have the trend is entering a new phase.....with the "Psychological line" showing signs of improovement on the monthly.....but all in all thanx...i know you from Moneytech youre a great trader and I respect your analysis too....its good to have someone with a different opinion so I can double check my charts...i'l get back to you I'll check the weekly and daily too and see what readings the "Psychological line" gives me.....please do share your thoughts time and again...your input and that of TraderJoe will make a difference.

Breeze
Market Master
  • #2,653
  • Apr 21, 2008 8:11am Apr 21, 2008 8:11am
New Positions

long @
205.00 X 10
205.20 X 10
205.18 X 10
205.17 X 10
206.00.........waiting
207.00
207.48
207.80.........waiting
208.00.........waiting
208.22.........waiting

The ADX is shopwing signs of recorvery on GBP/JPY

long YEN @

103.72.........very heavily
103.33.........very heavily

Stop hunting is over....time to re-position....Note i have taken Prfts on my NZD @ 7964....

Breeze
Market Master
  • #2,654
  • Apr 21, 2008 8:12am Apr 21, 2008 8:12am
Well it is possible that you can get your high positions off for profit(not in short term). I am just seeing some top action happening or saw it happening. There will be a rise going into Wednesday some people wanting there carry trade, but there will be more of a fall after that. If my anaylsis on my 12hr chart is correct, this low will not come until after Thursday, so it will be lower than today's low. That depends on one thing at this stage, that by Wednesday it is not over Friday's high.
  • #2,655
  • Apr 21, 2008 8:18am Apr 21, 2008 8:18am
Quoting pearsonfx
We are going UP now...if the following occurs.

204.28 is the bottom.

204.81 is the 38.2% retrace for the move from 198.04-208.99

4 hour candle close in 20 minutes

all it needs to do is close above there

Oversold ready to move up IMO

and we have a bullish butterfly

208.00 here we come again


GBP news really shook the tree this morning

Just my thoughts
My projection gives me 211.57.....and up and up...but who knows.
  • #2,656
  • Apr 21, 2008 8:19am Apr 21, 2008 8:19am
Quoting svengali
Well it is possible that you can get your high positions off for profit(not in short term). I am just seeing some top action happening or saw it happening. There will be a rise going into Wednesday some people wanting there carry trade, but there will be more of a fall after that. If my anaylsis on my 12hr chart is correct, this low will not come until after Thursday, so it will be lower than today's low. That depends on one thing at this stage, that by Wednesday it is not over Friday's high.
I'll be on high alert.....just incase I have to hedge.
  • #2,657
  • Apr 21, 2008 8:21am Apr 21, 2008 8:21am
Quoting fc3s
hopefully, my margin cant withstand much more of a drop
was it not possible to hedge.....at least you can safe yourself a headache.
  • #2,658
  • Edited 8:32am Apr 21, 2008 8:32am | Edited 8:32am
New Positions

long @
205.20 X 10
205.18 X 10
205.17 X 10
205.00 X 10
206.00.........waiting
207.00
207.48
207.80.........waiting
208.00.........waiting
208.22.........waiting

The ADX is shopwing signs of recorvery on GBP/JPY

long YEN @

103.72.........very heavily
103.33.........very heavily

Stop hunting is over....time to re-position....Note i have taken Prfts on my NZD @ 7964....

Breeze
Market Master
  • #2,659
  • Apr 21, 2008 10:07am Apr 21, 2008 10:07am
Quoting Breeze
was it not possible to hedge.....at least you can safe yourself a headache.
i did hedge, but it was kinda late, but it did help me. till i thought it was going back up, then i removed my hedge, and then it went downhill from there.
  • #2,660
  • Apr 21, 2008 10:14am Apr 21, 2008 10:14am
that's exactly why hedging often does not work and will kill you especially on GY and even more so with too little capital/too much leverage. One also ends up spending all time and energy managing those positions which prevents a clear head and as a result proper trading signals are missed. I had to reload my account many times largely due to this going wrong. Just a friendly warning.
Consistency and patience is everything
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