Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 123 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #2,441
  • Edited 11:43pm Apr 20, 2008 11:30pm | Edited 11:43pm
Quoting leighsww
Okay, if I do end up doing it, will you then at least keep an open mind that it can be done and possibly that you can do it, too?

Well of course. I'll take it like a gentleman.

Hey, you might be right, I dunno, but I'm willing to give my spreadsheet a try to see if it's doable, without making predictions into the future and coming to conclusions that it just can't work without at least giving it a fighting chance :

I din make any predictions, but i did bust up (not literally, but it went past my perceived red line e.g. read 3rd para) a small account, so yes its a thing abt risk exposures for me, the initial sizing and skewing is too big for a 2500 acc imo and any smaller, well you know.

Of course it all goes back to MO and danger abt trading news (the 250pip drop on euro was not due to any economic data, right? It was news fresh out of the oven) etc, but it may happen and could happen anytime anywhere again.

Using hypo 1 (2500 acc) at full load we are exposed with 4lots. thats 4/21, still plenty of space but if we get prices move 100pip against me in an instance, i will be -400 down. thats 400/2500. Thats 16%. Now compare that to the average return of $45 per 20pip trade expectancy, i will need approx 7 trades to BE. Wish you luck leighswww, hopefully you get to spank some sense into me when its all done and dusted.
Leighswww, thanks for your response.

Im glad that the little bit spice added managed to lift the thread back to life again. Well, at least it did force out some hidden scriptures out of leighswww. LOL.

I hope everyone could further share their experiences may it be good or bad. It serves as a learning point for all of us. There are always the pros and cons, i want us to be able to freely express and share, im sure leighswww, northpro and Zoran could step in the place of fti to guide.

regards
jest
  • #2,442
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:33am Apr 21, 2008 1:33am
The best part is, I don't need luck because I'm not trading now.

Hey MATE (lol) why don't you give us some live trade calls??? I mean, if its so easy that THOUSANDS of traders are doing it, let's see some EVIDENCE.

Oh, I forgot, you weren't in school the day that they taught PA was gambling. And where is the mystical level 2 you talk about? Your ECN? Because the last time I checked, there was no centralized market.

Quoting Putto
Good luck.
  • #2,443
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:40am Apr 21, 2008 1:40am
Quoting tdion
The best part is, I don't need luck because I'm not trading now.

Hey MATE (lol) why don't you give us some live trade calls??? I mean, if its so easy that THOUSANDS of traders are doing it, let's see some EVIDENCE.

Oh, I forgot, you weren't in school the day that they taught PA was gambling. And where is the mystical level 2 you talk about? Your ECN? Because the last time I checked, there was no centralized market.
leighs, thanks for the logs, appreciated. these scenarios give a better insight of the mindset needed to trade.

tdion, you need luck to cross the street aswell. i see you have read many methods and followed various signal givers.. and lost. well, it's ok. this is how you learn..
  • #2,444
  • Edited 2:16am Apr 21, 2008 1:45am | Edited 2:16am
Quoting jest
the initial sizing and skewing is too big for a 2500 acc imo and any smaller, well you know
Did you download my new spreadsheet (v2.0)? That new spreadsheet has the 3 level attack sequences and it's not big at all. Are you using fractional lots (like the spreadsheet shows)?

Quoting jest
It was news fresh out of the oven) etc, but it may happen and could happen anytime anywhere again
Sheesh, jest, we've already covered that. Next time you are against the major trend and you find yourself in a NEWS spike going in the other direction ... SURRENDER and get out fast. Have you not read all the links that I posted earlier where fti said to do so?

Now, if people still insist on snowballing their position until it wipes out their accounts, then it means they are dancing recklessly and irresponsibly, especially after ALL these recent discussions on the matter.

Now, stop being the Young Monk and "let go" of your refusal to admit that you shouldn't have been in that trade, cuz you know you made a booboo by trading against the major trend AND on a NEWS release :

Quoting jest
Using hypo 1 (2500 acc) at full load we are exposed with 4lots. thats 4/21
Where did you get 4 lots? Looking at "Hypothetical 1" on my spreadsheet, when putting in $2,500 into the starting "Account Value", it shows 2.4 lots if all 6 level attacks are implemented.

Where are you getting 4 lots?

If you haven't already, please download the NEW version 2.0 spreadsheet and start out using "Hypothetical 2" (the 3 level attack sequence). That's the one I'm using and it's working fine for me.

Also, because fti recommended that we use only 3 levels, so let's take his advice on that, shall we?

Study my spreadsheet again more carefully, cuz you must not be reading it right or something, cuz it clearly shows that 3 levels is enough to make a very decent income, so best to keep it simple and safe, since we are not in the same league as fti.
  • #2,445
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:49am Apr 21, 2008 1:49am
Well I didn't mention it, but yeah. I thought there was a silver bullet about 3 years ago when I started forex. I believed in predictability. I believed that if you had 4 good backtest years with a strategy, that at least 1 of the next 2 or 3 would be good. Now I DON'T. That is the evolution of being actively involved with forex month after month.

The fairy tale leaves, and the cold reality becomes apparent.

Quoting piccolo
tdion, you need luck to cross the street aswell. i see you have read many methods and followed various signal givers.. and lost. well, it's ok. this is how you learn..
  • #2,446
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:03am Apr 21, 2008 2:03am
Quoting tdion
The best part is, I don't need luck because I'm not trading now.

Hey MATE (lol) why don't you give us some live trade calls??? I mean, if its so easy that THOUSANDS of traders are doing it, let's see some EVIDENCE.

Oh, I forgot, you weren't in school the day that they taught PA was gambling. And where is the mystical level 2 you talk about? Your ECN? Because the last time I checked, there was no centralized market.
Tom, i wonder what keeps you coming back here? a mature person who thinks a certain room is a pure joke wouldn't wanna waste their time here since they know these guys are the one feeding em their salaries.

Did you find something substancially beneficial here?

What's your crux? If you aint trading then stop wailing. I don't give a shit abt ur luck, or what you think abt PA, coz if aren't sharing anything worthy of substance, then don't waste ur energies on us.

If you have something to share or debate then lay it on the table. If you wanna fight a PA war, go fight it with J16. Coz over here, we tango where the market limbo, of course we fall once a while.

sheeesh! (borrowed from leighswww)

@leighswww,

well i haven't downloaded it yet. Thanks for your inputs.
  • #2,447
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:04am Apr 21, 2008 2:04am
Quoting tdion
Well I didn't mention it, but yeah. I thought there was a silver bullet about 3 years ago when I started forex. I believed in predictability. I believed that if you had 4 good backtest years with a strategy, that at least 1 of the next 2 or 3 would be good. Now I DON'T. That is the evolution of being actively involved with forex month after month.

The fairy tale leaves, and the cold reality become apparent.
LOL, most of us have been down that road of trying every system out there, so if you're on a laptop ... take your shoes off, relax in a comfy recliner and read through this entire thread and possibly see if this one may finally have better results for you.

It may not, but give it a shot anyway and see, cuz "what if ..."?

Okay, are you boys about done with all the sparrings already, lol? : And shall we move on, my dears, with more productive banter?

And, please read people's posts good, because tdion posted "TA" NOT "PA" in his original post, so he was referring to "Technical Analysis" ... so he was basically agreeing with what fti's original post was about. You know, TA and its "fallacies" lol.

But remember, fti is not totally against TA, he just doesn't subscribe to using it in the wrong way --> as "predictive" tools.
  • #2,448
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:07am Apr 21, 2008 2:07am
Ha! Well, it just might be of substance to some people that TA IS A FALLACY. Afterall, that is the title of this thread.

Maybe you'd like it better if we all looked at trading the way you do. Maybe the story must be told your way, or not at all.

I don't regret saying that TA is a joke. It is my opinion, I said it, and that's all there is to it.

Quoting jest1081
Did you find something substancially beneficial here?
  • #2,449
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:22am Apr 21, 2008 2:22am
Quoting tdion
Ha! Well, it just might be of substance to some people that TA IS A FALLACY. Afterall, that is the title of this thread.

Maybe you'd like it better if we all looked at trading the way you do. Maybe the story must be told your way, or not at all.

I don't regret saying that TA is a joke. It is my opinion, I said it, and that's all there is to it.
Granted... TA has its fallacies.
No, it wouldn't matter at all if you look at trading the way i do, it doesn't change anything. Thanks.

We're/I'm sorry that the title of this thread has not lived to your expectations.
  • #2,450
  • Apr 21, 2008 2:25am Apr 21, 2008 2:25am
Quoting tdion
Ha! Well, it just might be of substance to some people that TA IS A FALLACY. Afterall, that is the title of this thread.

Maybe you'd like it better if we all looked at trading the way you do. Maybe the story must be told your way, or not at all.

I don't regret saying that TA is a joke. It is my opinion, I said it, and that's all there is to it.
Ok. You seemed frustrated, sir.

TA or PA as part of TA never gurantees trading success. Looking at a daily chart, how you predict the next day's movement? Up or down, all seems reasonable, when after it happened, a lot of TA indicators may explain. Even it can't be explained at all, there is still an explanation: there is always an exception.

Even you are so right for next day prediction. You don't know the process of it or the waves. If you chased marktet, and positions are too heavy, maybe you are foreced out before the price starts in your way. Or, you are nervous and closed some positions during pullback.

So, there are so many mistakes waiting for you.

Therefore the key to the success is money management, not PA in my opinion.

Wish I helped you. Some PAs could also give you false signals, but never mind, bite the bullet. Just as dear Leighw said, over long time, you will win. Be turtles, not rabbits.

By saying TA's fallacy, as a start, FTI actually was trying to lead us to the right path to successfull and consistent trading. He was trying to help us build up right mindset.

Only critisizing TA/PA is shit doesn't make any good. Try to find solutions are better.

Wish I helped you.
  • #2,451
  • Apr 21, 2008 3:01am Apr 21, 2008 3:01am
Quoting leighsww

I cannot post his blotters, since that one in particular, he asked me not to due to his identity. I cannot do so even if I were to remove his identity from the blotter, for he is not here to give me permission to do so, and the fact that he asked me not to share that, I have to live up to my commitment of his request.

As far as the other info he taught me, he said I could share that freely. So, I will post that when I can strip out my convo part of it.

no probs. understand. thank you, anyway.

cheers,
bl.
  • #2,452
  • Apr 21, 2008 3:20am Apr 21, 2008 3:20am
Quoting Leigh
Where did you get 4 lots? Looking at "Hypothetical 1" on my spreadsheet, when putting in $2,500 into the starting "Account Value", it shows 2.4 lots if all 6 level attacks are implemented.
jest ... my mistake. You are correct that if having entered ALL 6 levels for "Hypothetical 1" attack sequence, then it does come to 4 lots with a $2,500 Account Value.

I was only looking at the calculations on the "Hypothetical 1" scenario sheet which calculates only on 5 levels, thus the lesser exposure.

In any case, since 4 lots is too much exposure, either implement only 5 levels or better yet (as earlier advised), use the 3 level attack sequences.
  • #2,453
  • Apr 21, 2008 3:52am Apr 21, 2008 3:52am
Quoting leighsww
jest ... my mistake. You are correct that if having entered ALL 6 levels for "Hypothetical 1" attack sequence, then it does come to 4 lots with a $2,500 Account Value.

I was only looking at the calculations on the "Hypothetical 1" scenario sheet which calculates only on 5 levels, thus the lesser exposure.

In any case, since 4 lots is too much exposure, either implement only 5 levels or better yet (as earlier advised), use the 3 level attack sequences.
Hi leighsww,

no porblems. I have downloaded your spreadsheets too. And have decided to weighdown my rescues. attached image. Im planning to use an attack sequence similar to Zoran's 1,1,2. Tell me what you think?
Attached Image
  • #2,454
  • Apr 21, 2008 4:06am Apr 21, 2008 4:06am
Hey...folks, let us keep collecting pips while others argue about TA and PA... Is it worthy? Remember that the whole thing is based on only 3 components: market structure, you and capitalization. Where is TA and other tools on this?
let us just pip our way along.

This weekend dialogue among the few here was very interesting...I began paying attention to the 3 kingdooms and the infamous ABCDE elliot...it would be interesting to see what I learn.

I just finished my session and I am happily going to bed...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,455
  • Apr 21, 2008 4:11am Apr 21, 2008 4:11am
Quoting jest1081
Hi leighsww,

no porblems. I have downloaded your spreadsheets too. And have decided to weighdown my rescues. attached image. Im planning to use an attack sequence similar to Zoran's 1,1,2. Tell me what you think?
Jest...After our last week mess, I am set on only 2 rescue operation. If the first one fail...wait and see and MAYBE attemp another...if that fail.. surrender... I also returned to 1-2-3 even though the 1-1-2 is safer. Notice that 1+2=3 and 1+1=2. So if you wait until having foreign capital before the 3 wave then you are running on bank money...

Now the question is when to do the rescue? here Elliot and timing should come to help!

Now bed....
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,456
  • Apr 21, 2008 4:26am Apr 21, 2008 4:26am
Quoting jest1081
Im planning to use an attack sequence similar to Zoran's 1,1,2. Tell me what you think?
So, are you telling me that you are still going to be using FULL lots (not fractional lots)? Thus, if you are full in you will be utilizing a total of 4 lots? And then if all troops need to be rescued, you will be 8 lots in?

You are certainly a gambler, my dear, and an impatient one, at that :.

If you want me to tell you what I think, well here it is ... I really would recommend that you use my spreadsheet's 3 level attack sequence which uses fractional lots. With using $2,500 as your starting Account Value, your starting skew would be --> .5, .8, 1.3 (total = 2.6 lots when full in at all 3 levels).

It will be much easier for you to have successful rescues if you start out more conservatively on your attack allotment.

Can you not see what the compounding will do for you eventually if you just take it slow and steady? My spreadsheet spells it all out for you really easy.

Why are you so impatient? You will be on a path to destruction, if you keep that mindset up.

In my opinion, you are not yet ready in your dancing skills to be using full lots. When you can have 20 successful dances in a row, is when I would say you can do whatever you want with full lots at that point. But, just from your recent dances and how you handled them, as well as my sense that your confidence has been taken down a few notches after your tidal wave (your posts have had a sound of paranoia, panic and uncertainly in them), is why I'm recommending you to start out with fractional lots until your confidence, as well as dancing skills, become more attuned.

Okay, that's my opinion and feedback for you. Do with it what you will, but if you continue to pursue becoming a millionaire overnight, then AIYA, I give up on you, my dear! :
  • #2,457
  • Edited 5:14am Apr 21, 2008 5:02am | Edited 5:14am
Quoting leighsww
So, are you telling me that you are still going to be using FULL lots (not fractional lots)? Thus, if you are full in you will be utilizing a total of 4 lots? And then if all troops need to be rescued, you will be 8 lots in?

You are certainly a gambler, my dear, and an impatient one, at that :.

If you want me to tell you what I think, well here it is ... I really would recommend that you use my spreadsheet's 3 level attack sequence which uses fractional lots. With using $2,500 as your starting Account Value, your starting skew would be --> .5, .8, 1.3 (total = 2.6 lots when full in at all 3 levels).

It will be much easier for you to have successful rescues if you start out more conservatively on your attack allotment.

Can you not see what the compounding will do for you eventually if you just take it slow and steady? My spreadsheet spells it all out for you really easy.

Why are you so impatient? You will be on a path to destruction, if you keep that mindset up.

In my opinion, you are not yet ready in your dancing skills to be using full lots. When you can have 20 successful dances in a row, is when I would say you can do whatever you want with full lots at that point. But, just from your recent dances and how you handled them, as well as my sense that your confidence has been taken down a few notches after your tidal wave (your posts have had a sound of paranoia, panic and uncertainly in them), is why I'm recommending you to start out with fractional lots until your confidence, as well as dancing skills, become more attuned.

Okay, that's my opinion and feedback for you. Do with it what you will, but if you continue to pursue becoming a millionaire overnight, then AIYA, I give up on you, my dear! :
Ahhh! I'm starting believe that my english is really bad and that im really stupid, its almost becoming a frustration trying to get my point across.

I have never indicated that i traded full lots. Those are the skews-lah, and they by no means translate my actual sizing, which is privy to me. Infact i already mentioned in pvs that 4lots on a 2.5k account is crazy if we follow the six level skew made by ur previous table, why would i wanna go that path? When it was those exact skew which killed my trade!

Of course my dancing is no where as good as some of you here which reasons why i am a laggard compared to you lusan zoran and northpro. Thats why i am addressing some issues of my own to get some insights. I'm very well aware of the sizing that i should take and it gave me more knowledge when you suggested that we should reduce our rescue levels. Coz i used to be under the impression....take no losers in this technique, well i've realised that i am after all not made of steel and losers average losers at times, esp when our market judgement is horribly skewed.

Thanks & im fine if you wanna give up.

Lusan, thanks, i'll note that.
  • #2,458
  • Apr 21, 2008 5:38am Apr 21, 2008 5:38am
Quoting luSan
Now the question is when to do the rescue? here Elliot and timing should come to help!

Now bed....
Lusan, when I need to do a rescue I go to higher timeframes and look for previous support/resistance levels and plan/time my rescue mission there based on action.

I think the most we can get from Elliott for now is the wave structure and that the action is impulsive in the direction of the trend. It may serve as notice if your position is against it - like swimming against a rip.
  • #2,459
  • Edited 6:12am Apr 21, 2008 5:50am | Edited 6:12am
Quoting tdion
The best part is, I don't need luck because I'm not trading now.

Hey MATE (lol) why don't you give us some live trade calls??? I mean, if its so easy that THOUSANDS of traders are doing it, let's see some EVIDENCE.

Oh, I forgot, you weren't in school the day that they taught PA was gambling. And where is the mystical level 2 you talk about? Your ECN? Because the last time I checked, there was no centralized market.

You doubt that thousands of people are profitable in this? This trillion dollar market??? You might want to step out from infront of your laptop and take a walk down a little paved walkway called Wall Street where all these "gamblers" use PA and yes TA every day in many different markets from forex to futures to stocks to good effect. Yeah its only the banks with their scary arbitrage who can scrape together some profit (Note sarcasm). Despite what you may believe the fundamentals of all trading is the same. Strength - weakness - supply - demand. Measure that properly and protect yourself from the unanticipated and youll be fine. Dont piss on other people just because you cant grasp this and transfer this into reality to be able to make a living.

Your presumption to think my ego is somehow linked to an online pissing contest is laughable. I dont need to prove anything to you. Who are you??

And although i hate lemming trading i would have offered to help you and im sure many others would have if you had not been quite so abrasive and dismissive

And i said there is NO level 2. That was my point.

Hopefully this time when i say good luck you will get the intentional irony.
Lemming Forex! The Way to Trade....
  • #2,460
  • Apr 21, 2008 5:51am Apr 21, 2008 5:51am
Quoting jest
Infact i already mentioned in pvs that 4lots on a 2.5k account is crazy if we follow the six level skew made by ur previous table, why would i wanna go that path?
Well, that's why I questioned it and was so baffled, lol! Sheesh, how am I supposed to read your mind on that not being your exact size allotment for the skew? http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/whip.gif

I am normally very specific when posting the skews, so I assumed that everyone else was doing the same :

I mean, what would be the reason for not posting your exact size correlating to the skew? I don't get it?

Okay, anyway, I apologize for not understanding what you meant

Quoting jest
im fine if you wanna give up.
Oh, now how can I give up on you, eh? I'm too fond of you at this point!
8 traders viewing now