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Trading like a child

  • #41
  • Apr 20, 2008 4:54am Apr 20, 2008 4:54am
Quoting Thexder
Now look at example 9 from the perspective of trying to trade counter trend.

A trend continuation ends up occurring but it includes a pullback that consolidates for several days and there are spikes in both directions. There is a counter trend pullback (new low on the bottom of the bars against the up trend), then there is a series of higher lows again so we might be looking for a chance to trade it on a break of that first pullback low bar.

Just before the long break there is a downward spike that does break that first pullback low bar. If that counter trend low peak is traded on this bar the trade would fail.

Let's say we observe many other such pullbacks and see other examples where there's spikes in both directions and we can't reliably just trade blind peaks or we'd get whipsawed, but we notice (to save time I noticed it in the past) that during a reversal trade setup, if one of those counter trend bar peaks forms and is then broken on the next bar, it tends to be more successful than just trading the break of the counter trend bar at any random point in the future.

So update the counter trend trading rule with this observation of what happens pictorially in a good reverse trade.

Rule 2: Trading a reversal. When the counter trend side of the bars experiences a pullback, trade the break of that pullback if it occurs on the following bar. If no break of the counter trend move occurs, wait for a new counter trend setup.
In my humble opinion, you should consider it, especially now that you have this rule in place already.

Anyway, I will step back and watch your progress

Good luck
Peace
  • #42
  • Apr 20, 2008 4:59am Apr 20, 2008 4:59am
I am going to go process what has unfolded and review some charts and see if anything can be added or if it's time to try some testing. Just like the January chart, by doing the tests and seeing the results, new things might jump out for better or worse.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #43
  • Edited 1:34pm Apr 20, 2008 1:03pm | Edited 1:34pm
Feb/Mar 2006 is a good time to work on the system, it has a lot of whipsaw and eventually goes far when it breaks. Keep in mind that staying out is also a position. Experiencing too many bad trades could lead to a decision to stop trading until things look up again - an implicit way of waiting for a break from consolidation. Also in rocky times don't forget to observe the strength of the bars. It may seem like a trade is triggered and then bars whipsaw, breaking the highs and lows several times without hitting a target but maybe these bars are not closing strongly. If an initial stop is kept in place and only trailed when strength is seen, some of that chaos can be endured and a target can be hit.

I'll step aside now that I have laid a foundation and see if anyone has any interest in pursuing this and can come up with ideas. If not, we'll leave it as it is and maybe someday someone will be inspired and make use of the research.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #44
  • Apr 20, 2008 8:11pm Apr 20, 2008 8:11pm
Thank you, Thexder, I like your logic and how you proceeded (how many times i wanted forget all i know about TA (assuming or expecting) - take brain shoes off and look at it fresh and simple;
not went that fare though - but there is a feeling - that's the good way - may take logical development(optimization) or savant's idea with postulates - we newer know unless ...
  • #45
  • Sep 10, 2008 2:32pm Sep 10, 2008 2:32pm
SwingMan,

Could you please share your 3 Strikes DayLines_V1 indicator.
Thank you!

Alfa99


Quoting SwingMan
Very nice idea!
Here is my version: to trade later mechanical and not visual, I take for trend identification the slopes of the three strikes. (The Close average is replaced with the pivot average.)
The signals seems to be very good for most of the pairs.
.
  • #46
  • Sep 12, 2008 12:32am Sep 12, 2008 12:32am
Quoting alfa99
SwingMan,

Could you please share your 3 Strikes DayLines_V1 indicator.
Thank you!

Alfa99
Hi alpha,

I developed few indicators for the 3 strikes, maybe find you what you need.

I dont used the indicators in the last time. Please post few charts or results!
.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 3Strikes DayLines_v1.mq4   5 KB | 488 downloads
File Type: mq4 3Strikes MinLines_v1.mq4   8 KB | 458 downloads
File Type: mq4 3Strikes DashBoard_v1.mq4   33 KB | 485 downloads
  • #47
  • Sep 12, 2008 1:13am Sep 12, 2008 1:13am
Somehow I don't think a child who would open a chart would go counter trend...

Just an idea, if I were to trade like a child, on a daily chart as was mentioned for example, I would take a pair with a clear trend on that chart, draw a line in the middle of it, and when price is at the counter-trend side of that middle trend line I would enter a trade in the trend direction with sl and tp of about the average daily range.

Of course, furtunately, we're not children, so I see no reason to actually stick to such oversimplified and lower win to loss techneaques.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #48
  • Last Post: Sep 12, 2008 1:24am Sep 12, 2008 1:24am
Quoting SwingMan
Hi alpha,

I developed few indicators for the 3 strikes, maybe find you what you need.

I dont used the indicators in the last time. Please post few charts or results!
.
Hi SwingMan,

Thank you very much for the indicators.

Alfa99
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