Technical Analysis Fallacy

Quoting luSan

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Right on! Trading size less than 0.5 minilot are just training sizes...the big $$ is above...why? 100 pips with a minilot size troop is $100 per session...done several times a day is a real salary...and you are done...yes...done...you do not have a boss but yourself...you take it from there.

Consistency? Yes...if you figure out how to manage the news...the strategy really works...but the news break the whole system apart...fti never told us either about when to surrender or to deal with news...well, as far as I can remember...I'd wish he comes back and clarify these points with an interesting story...oh well...where is fti?...I hope he is Ok and well...

Regards

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Quoting Zoran

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The proof, ladies and gentlemen, is in the pudding.

He does play it very close to the market. Not necessarily each bar (although at times he does) but seemingly each component formation (as he has mentioned quite often).

Here is his hypothetical chart.

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Quoting leighsww

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Attack & Rescue Spreadsheet - v2.0

This version ...

1) Has 3 Attack Sequences as follows:

a) .1, .1, .2, .3, .5, .8

b) .2, .3, .5

c) .1, .2, .4

As previously ... the sequence will compound when corresponding with the "Max. Lots Available to Trade" which is determined by the "Account Value"

2) "Pips" column now has the bottom TOTALS displaying both the "total" pips (sum of all pips banked) for that column, and an "average" of the sum of the pips, as well.

-----------

Again, for those of you who are impatient and who feel that starting out with a small account value, as well as only using small fractional lots can't get you anywhere, well ... please scroll down to the end of each "Hypothetical" scenario sheet and you will see how the account can grow.

I'm currently using the new 3 level attack sequence and in my Post #2394, I've been averaging 32 pips so far, so if I can keep on track and not let my own demons get the best of me, lol, then hopefully, I can have the type of results the hypothetical scenario displays (or possibly better, if I can continue to exceed the average 25 pips goal I've set for myself). Anyway, only time will tell, so we'll see.

I truly believe that "slow and steady wins the race" ... so, if we can dance and implement our MM responsibly - meaning, DO NOT go against the major trend!! : AND stay away from the NEWS!!! AND DO NOT overexpose our kingdom (account) by overextending our valuable troops!! ... then we should be successful in our battles. However, if we still choose to not heed these ever popular warnings that fti, as well as many other professional traders proclaim, then we do so at our peril!!

Okay, yes, yes, I know even fti has not heeded his own warnings, cuz he has on occasion traded against the trend ... but whether he is just that good and has enough capital to get himself out of a "dead in water" situation, or whether he deserves a whipping for it (he's professed to having his Scorpion in him emerge at times, lol), maybe releasing of some of them overactive testosteronies before dancing might be in order!! Sheesh! :
.

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Quoting lilpip

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lusan,
You mention to jest1081 you usually bite the bullet after an hour if price is moving away. Don't you think we have a better oppurtunity waiting till the 4hr. to make a decision to bite the bullet? It seems to me we have more oppurtunities for rescues.
Then again, are you still constrained by the time factor of 1-2 hrs?
Whatever the case isn't it better to at least go the 4 hours?

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Quoting fti - email snippet

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You are at liberty to share what you have learned, with whomsoever you wish

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Quoting fti

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Session Start (leigh:fti): Tue Nov 20 19:01:07 2007
[19:01] fti: ok about levels
[19:01] fti: do you remember ,the selling at 110.35
[19:02] fti: now thats level 1
[19:02] fti: he's the scout
[19:03] fti: incidentally , this is the money management part
[19:03] fti: do you remember I sold 3X further
[19:04] fti: That the front line attack squad
[19:04] fti: Then I sold another 3X
[19:05] fti: when It went down and came back up.
[19:06] fti: lets start from the begining again
[19:07] fti: the money mangement part comprise of 7 levels
[19:08] fti: but for beginners I'll teach you 3 for simplicity, ok
[19:08] fti: level 1 = 1 lot
[19:09] fti: level 2 = 3
[19:09] fti: level 3 = 5 lots but I could'nt do 5 on the system so I did 3
[19:09] fti: does this make any sense
[19:10] fti: so every attack will be in 3 waves
[19:11] fti: remember I sold 1 lot at 110.35
[19:12] fti: then it went down to test 110.10
[19:13] fti: that was the scout
[19:14] fti: he proved correct that the usd was soft
[19:14] fti: so comes the 2 wave of attack
[19:15] fti: but where?
[19:16] fti: if mkt went against him then wave 2 the (frontline) must not attack
[19:17] fti: instead I would leave it in the mkt to see
[19:17] fti: how far it would go against it
[19:20] fti: he will be left in the market to feel the mkt pulse
[19:21] fti: lets assume that mkt goes to 110.90
[19:22] fti: then since I was wrong on the 1 level, I will wait for a max of 7 bars.
[19:23] fti: assuming that 110.90 was the 7th bar,
[19:23] fti: that means 35mins later
[19:24] fti: I would send 1 rescue mission for him and sell 3 lots at 110.90
[19:25] fti: to take him out without damage.
[19:25] fti: I would have to sell 3 lots at 110.90
[19:25] fti: otherwise I take home a dead scout
[19:28] fti: you see when I sell the rescue 3 lots
[19:28] fti: what I am effectively doing is
[19:28] fti: averaging my ability to be near the market
[19:29] fti: because by selling 3 at 110.90
[19:29] fti: now my cost of all 4 lots is 110.737
[19:30] fti: so if mkt within the next 7 bars drops to 110.72
[19:30] fti: I'm out with the scout and the rescue team
[19:32] fti: ok what if within the next seven bars mkt continue to go up
[19:33] fti: to lets say 111.50
[19:33] fti: then a squad of 5 goes in rescue
[19:34] fti: the sequense is in fabonaci expansion - next
[19:35] fti: at the bank I had 500 million USD to rescue 1 million usd
[19:36] fti: my limit is 500 million USD must stop
[19:36] fti: but no market can take me out.
[19:40] fti: first can you grasp the money management concept
[19:41] fti: we know what we're going to do when we are wrong
[19:42] fti: but in this case.
[19:42] fti: what should we do when we are in profit
[19:45] fti: lets recap yesterday
[19:45] fti: scout got in 110.35
[19:46] fti: then mkt went down to 110.10
[19:46] fti: then back up
[19:46] fti: to where was that?
[19:47] fti: that was level 2
[19:47] fti: couldn't get it filled
[19:48] fti: saw the indicators for selling coming
[19:48] fti: then mkt tested up again right
[19:49] fti: that was when the long shadow showed, right?
[19:50] fti: yes, whats the point of having candle stick charts and not knowing the patterns?
[19:54] fti: remember the rescue sequense?
[19:56] fti: so whats the sequense?
[19:56] fti: ok, I tell U
[19:58] fti: do you know aout fabonacci expansion?
[19:59] fti: fabonacci expansion
[20:00] fti: 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34
[20:01] fti: ok even I got it wrong, have to recap
[20:01] fti: look at the fabonacci expansion what do you see
[20:04] fti: the progression for rescue is
[20:05] fti: 1,3,8,21.....
[20:12] fti: fabonacci progression
[20:14] fti: 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144
[20:15] fti: rescue progression
[20:15] fti: 1,3,8,21,55,144
[20:16] fti: attack progression
[20:17] fti: 1 skip 3 skip 8 skip 21
[20:18] fti: 1 skip 2 then 3 skip 5 then 8 skip 13 then 21...
[20:21] fti: thats why I teach you only 3 progressionlevels
[20:23] fti: i am talking about concept
[20:25] fti: let talk attack
[20:25] fti: so what's the progression?
[20:26] fti: 1,2,5,13,...
[20:27] fti: the numbers we didn't use for attack
[20:27] fti: sorry the numbers we did't use for rescue
[20:29] fti: but for now concept only
[20:30] fti: pls write the fab pro on a piece of paper up to 144
[20:32] fti: whats the attack?
[20:33] fti: 1,2,5,13,34,89
[20:36] fti: 1,2,skip3,5,skip8,13, skip21, 34......
[20:38] fti: now for the bank I can do that
[20:38] fti: if I asked you to sell 144 lots to rescue 1 you would ...
[20:39] fti: so thats for the bank
[20:39] fti: for you
[20:39] fti: do you understand elliot wave?
[20:42] fti: markets move in 5 wave cycles
[20:44] fti: 3 impules waves and 2 retracement waves making a total of 5 waves
[20:45] fti: so wave 1 is impulse wave 2 is retracement wave 3 is impluse wave 4 is retracement wave 5 is inpluse.
[20:51] fti: anyway,I personally feel for real people we should never go pass level 3
[20:52] fti: that is unless you want to be a multi millionaire overnight or be bankrupted
[20:53] fti: that's why i showed you 1,3,3
[20:53] fti: attack
[20:54] fti: you didn't see 1,5,5, rescue
[20:55] fti: actualy rescue is 1,5 then surrender
[20:56] fti: If you analyse my blotters
[20:57] fti: you will see that I am alot more complex than that because I add volitility to the figures
[20:58] fti: I meant that I add market volitility to the positions
[20:59] fti: volitility means the speed of the waves.
[21:00] fti: you see when a wave forms it has direction right?
[21:00] fti: it also has speed.
[21:01] fti: so I add that to the positions
[21:01] fti: its vv beyond you now
[21:02] fti: for now just know that you have to take that into consideration.
[21:19] fti: we'll do eur/usd today
[21:27] fti: just went short
[21:27] fti: 1.4831
[21:39] fti: mange to sell 2 @35
[21:39] fti: sold 1@34
[21:51] fti: short usd [email protected]
[21:52] fti: i am short 4 right?
[21:55] fti: 3375
[21:56] fti: 1.483375
[21:56] fti: normally 5 decimal points
[21:59] fti: actually alredy hit target
[21:59] fti: but leg is short
[22:00] fti: so retrace only expect up to 27
[22:01] fti: i ve got another 3 squads of me to go in
[22:02] fti: trying to find the critcal opening to hit
[22:03] fti: 20 looks like eeeeeh
[22:05] fti: target is 14800/90
[22:06] fti: whnot now missed the opening already
[22:06] fti: target 1.4790
[22:07] fti: too late the other 3 retires
[22:08] fti: looks like no chance this round
[22:08] fti: taking profit on 3 now
[22:12] fti: don't think just flow
[22:12] fti: bot 1@99
[22:14] fti: bot 1@99
[22:14] fti: bot 1@96
[22:14] fti: left scout
[22:20] fti: short 1 @1.4945
[22:23] fti: recap sold 1.4835 34 35 31
[22:23] fti: 31 is scout right
[22:23] fti: bot 1.4799 99 96
[22:24] fti: so 835-799=
[22:24] fti: 36
[22:24] fti: 834-799=35
[22:25] fti: 835-796=39
[22:26] fti: so is 1.4941 ok?
[22:27] fti: scout is short usd at 1.4941
[22:28] fti: now only scout is left in the battlefield
[22:29] fti: I am actually waiting for retracement to hit level two again
[22:30] fti: 36+35+39=110
[22:31] fti: scout is @1.4831+.0110=1.4941
[22:33] fti: selling target opening at 1.4815
[22:33] fti: and closing
[22:35] fti: how much did each individual men earned?
[22:42] fti: I am taking scout out now
[22:44] fti: bot 1.4794

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[22:57] fti: send scout out to sell at 1.4800
[22:58] fti: now mm sweep up to sell
[23:00] fti: scout deployed short 94
[23:01] fti: mdm general shall I send army after the scout please?
[23:03] fti: next 3
[23:07] fti: when in bear mode stay thinking
[23:07] fti: Is is going down.
[23:08] fti: when in bear mode stay thinking bear mode
[23:10] fti: when in bear mode always ask is it going down
[23:10] fti: never think oh I see up pattern
[23:10] fti: stay bear
[23:11] fti: if the scout in trouble send rescue later
[23:12] fti: this was one of the laws I gave at the feb posts
[23:15] fti: got scout out bot 1 at 04
[23:16] fti: new scout deployed bot 1 at 07
[23:16] fti: quick take a look at 5m chart now
[23:17] fti: the reason I deploy buy scout
[23:18] fti: too high getting scout out now
[23:19] fti: sold 1 at 15
[23:21] fti: when mkt rallys strong you have to give it a chance to cool off
[23:22] fti: if it persist up at least you are not caught
[23:23] fti: but if it still force itself uo the deploy scout to feel the pluse on whether its real
[23:24] fti: do you notice that the down bars are in 3s and 4s
[23:24] fti: the up bars are singular
[23:25] fti: and now the up bars are singular and down bars are singular
[23:25] fti: sign of stops sweep
[23:28] fti: no really ,lets say for instance we let the scout short at 1.4941 remember
[23:30] fti: why would I want to put a stop loss when they cannot touch him even if they did these no damage.
[23:30] fti: sweep over
[23:31] fti: If I left anything overnight, Ill just leave the scout
[23:50] fti: looks like strong dollar
[23:51] fti: looking for opening to deply scout
[23:51] fti: the sweeps over
[23:54] fti: W top on EUR$
[23:54] fti: not likely
[23:55] fti: scout deployed 03
[23:56] fti: 1.4803
[23:56] fti: meant double top sorry
[23:56] fti: supposed to be M tops
[23:57] fti: can you see it in the daily charts?
[00:01] fti: scout in trouble, reversal in complete
[00:01] fti: withdraw scout now
[00:03] fti: bot 1 at 06
[00:04] fti: actually mkt still bear
[00:06] fti: now lets try redeploy scout near 00
[00:11] fti: scout deployed at 03
[00:12] fti: poor scout
[00:13] fti: looks like heavy top
[00:14] fti: testing top again
[00:14] fti: can you see it
[00:15] fti: because the scout was against the trend
[00:15] fti: remember it was a test
[00:16] fti: for up side
[00:16] fti: but trend we determined was down
[00:16] fti: earlier that is
[00:17] fti: but we are very near objective so the question is how steep the down side over-run will be.
[00:21] fti: I think I'll take the scout out again
[00:22] fti: london's going to lunch soon
[00:23] fti: dealers lunch at 11
[00:26] fti: bot 1 at 797
[00:26] fti: all squared for lunch ,,old chaps
[00:27] fti: I am all squared now
[00:32] fti: london boys comes back from lunch markets normally sit wait for NY boys
[00:33] fti: just trying to sweep stops below major support
[00:34] fti: london boys comes back from lunch markets normally sit wait for NY boys lead
[00:35] fti: this one example plays place stops below the support, too close and get sweeped
[00:35] fti: too far and defeats the purpose.
[00:36] fti: like I said, experience counts as well, can feel the mkt pulse better
[00:37] fti: I was sweeping
[00:37] fti: market makermakers market
[00:37] fti: interbank
[00:38] fti: teir 1
[00:39] fti: it was in my post
[00:39] fti: at feb's
[00:39] fti: just now probably big stop oder by customer sopt sell EUR
[00:40] fti: probably placed teir ons and have been sitting duck since morning.
[00:41] fti: cust probably though break this support dlr would be dead.
[00:42] fti: so london boys waited for market to get thin near lunch
[00:42] fti: to put the duck out of its misery.
[00:43] fti: you see london open to trade down
[00:44] fti: found good support 1.47 90/00
[00:44] fti: variance 1.4785 strong
[00:45] fti: sweeped up to 1.4810/20
[00:46] fti: I think london boys at lunch already
Session Close (fti): Wed Nov 21 01:03:45 2007

Quoting luSan

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Zoran,

I will tell you a secret. I came up with my style after spending a long time reflecting upon this chart. That is one of the many reasons that I play @times every 5M bar...I think this chart says a lot...Eventhough it does not include Vega and true range-these are probably part of the decision making proccess....Edit:Notice how he reduces the position as the trade fall down...he is taking profit along the way, so he could be very aggresive with in the third wave...I do not know how to do that with Oanda...so I did not adopted this approach...

I passed several hours today thinking about the true range...I came to the conclusion that IT IS VERY IMPORTANT for us...even though we have no story about it...ah...

Actually I feel that this chart is the most important chart in the whole thread.

Regards,

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Quoting Zoran

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Could -4 be his small boy for overnight dance?

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Quoting Zoran

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Lusan, fti deleted the post when he first attached that chart. He did repost the chart but I'm not sure he put the text back. I managed to save a copy of it before it was too late.

Some things to keep in mind (from missing text). This is an attack sequence of three stages. It is a hypothetical scenario and was labelled after the fact (i.e. not live). He mentioned some slippage may be likely in live.

I see it as

stage 1: -1 -1 -2 -16 (-20) 8 5 3 2 1 (-1)
stage 2: -1 -2 (-4) 4 (0)
stage 3: -1 -1 -1 -2 -15 (-20) 8 5 3 (-4)

Could -4 be his small boy for overnight dance?

He was attacking on the short side. Notice generally that as soon as a red bar appeared after a yellow one, he attacked? If another appeared he tended to continued to unwind up to his max (20) then he started to wind back in.

You are correct, this is an important chart but there are many hidden gems in this thread.

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Quoting lilpip

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Hey guys ,
I can relate to your conversation.
First of all I'd like to say most know more than I do trading, however I'd like to say in fti absense its very important to take the time to go over his thread. lusan, remember the emperor moth.

How closely are we following, applying and developing the aow?

Money management seems to be a topic of late in the aow lesson 2 fti mentions 10 % for those that are learning. We need to keep in mind that if trade is against us, with this art we may need to go from 5 min. - 15-30min .-1 hr. to 4 hr. to recover. So when we get in a trade our we looking at the distance of the 4 hr. price action ?

Something to think about.
Also, if we have set times to trade and there happens to be news that hr. how well do we now the terrain at that time?

jest 1081,
As far as a few peanuts go, the oppurtunity is there to develope the art of growing a few peanuts into a peanut farm. Its better than taking ones peanut farm down to a few peanuts, so lets learn how to grow peanuts one peanut at a time if thats what it takes. Just don't loose your nuts.

take care

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Quoting tdion

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TA is a JOKE

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Quoting jest1081

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If you are here to drive a point thru cool one-liners...back off.

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Quoting tdion

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One liners or 5 paragraph rhetoric.... its all the same thing, and a free internet.

I just happen to be able to express my opinion very succinctly.

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Quoting jest

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but i do hope to see a 2k account grow to a 10k one within 6-12mths, just so that i can be proven sorely wrong

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Quoting tdion

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One liners or 5 paragraph rhetoric.... its all the same thing, and a free internet.

I just happen to be able to express my opinion very succinctly.

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