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Trading like a child

  • #21
  • Apr 19, 2008 5:47pm Apr 19, 2008 5:47pm
Thexder........ at this point your strategy is already beyond child like.....
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #22
  • Apr 19, 2008 6:01pm Apr 19, 2008 6:01pm
Quoting johnedoe
Thexder........ at this point your strategy is already beyond child like.....
Maybe it's a child prodigy
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #23
  • Apr 19, 2008 6:33pm Apr 19, 2008 6:33pm
Quoting Thexder
Maybe it's a child prodigy
or an idiot savant.....
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #24
  • Apr 19, 2008 6:43pm Apr 19, 2008 6:43pm


Quoting johnedoe
or an idiot savant.....
I don't fault the guy for trying....
  • #25
  • Apr 19, 2008 7:01pm Apr 19, 2008 7:01pm
What about the size of stops for trading day charts? I've been hit a few times and I've gotten gun shy. I like the idea of finding a way to trade once a day; the day job gets in the way of trading for sure.
  • #26
  • Apr 19, 2008 7:26pm Apr 19, 2008 7:26pm
Quoting tdion




I don't fault the guy for trying....
I'm not faulting the guy, just pointing out that what started out as a child like trading system has become less than child like simple.....
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #27
  • Apr 19, 2008 9:05pm Apr 19, 2008 9:05pm
Quoting johnedoe
I'm not faulting the guy, just pointing out that what started out as a child like trading system has become less than child like simple.....
You're thinking about it too literally (or too much). It's not supposed to be tradable on a fisher price internet connection, I'm talking about the simplicity of evaluating what's on the screen from a different perspective. If that should require running through a list of 47 rules in order to trade, it's still simple and worth taking the 10 minutes once a day to do.

Have you seen what savants are capable of? If we could harness that ability as average people we'd have a great edge.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #28
  • Apr 19, 2008 9:07pm Apr 19, 2008 9:07pm
Quoting JeffH
What about the size of stops for trading day charts? I've been hit a few times and I've gotten gun shy. I like the idea of finding a way to trade once a day; the day job gets in the way of trading for sure.
They may need to be relatively large and the risk:reward police will soon start coming down on the system when I get more into the targets but initial stops are going to be behind the break out bar and then trailed up as new strength is seen. Sometimes it leads to retracements that must be toughed out but we're going to determine what works best by the same evaluations and learn to be confident about it.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #29
  • Apr 19, 2008 9:13pm Apr 19, 2008 9:13pm
Quoting Thexder
You're thinking about it too literally (or too much). It's not supposed to be tradable on a fisher price internet connection, I'm talking about the simplicity of evaluating what's on the screen from a different perspective. If that should require running through a list of 47 rules in order to trade, it's still simple and worth taking the 10 minutes once a day to do.

Have you seen what savants are capable of? If we could harness that ability as average people we'd have a great edge.
Just going by what you stated in your first post..... as to the capabilities of savants .... we could use one around here....LOL
anyway good luck with your system.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #30
  • Apr 19, 2008 10:57pm Apr 19, 2008 10:57pm
With my scientific goggles on, let me share my analogy of this thread with you.

Suppose you ask a 21 year old savant to enter the hottest bar in Hollywood, CA. (not temperature-wise... I'm sure you get it.) Now our savant is extremely intelligent, but not very social. He knows what drinks girls like. He knows what the best time to go to the bar is. He knows psychology very well, and every good response to socializing with the starlets.

HOWEVER

He can never escape CHAOS. He can never know whether a girl is dating someone, mentally unstable, or a lesbian. Soooo.... our savant is crippled in spite of his abilities.

My point is, even a PERFECT trader is subject to the natural laws of randomness and chaos. His results are always dependent on the "lay of the land" that is completely out of his control.
  • #31
  • Apr 19, 2008 11:16pm Apr 19, 2008 11:16pm
Quoting tdion
even a PERFECT trader is subject to the natural laws of randomness and chaos. His results are always dependent on the "lay of the land" that is completely out of his control.
So you're saying no matter what we do we will have times where we don't have control over what's happening and will therefore take losses etc?

If that's the point you're making, then my point is no matter what system is being used or devised, is the goal not to strive to minimize those losses and maximize gains in the winning times?

Well that's how I see it and that's what I'm attempting to therefore do.

By the way, "normal" people also are disadvantaged when it comes to knowing any background info on someone in a pick up, and the savant doesn't really have any remarkable edge over any ordinary player who also knows how to push the right buttons so I am lost on the analogy anyway.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #32
  • Apr 19, 2008 11:31pm Apr 19, 2008 11:31pm
Well, the point is that the savant will always do "the right thing" based on whatever information he is presented with. But even his high IQ can not save him from the chaos that he is surrounded by.

So, in effect, our savant will have success from time to time, but must be willing to accept his success as luck, and failures as bad luck.

Quoting Thexder
By the way, "normal" people also are disadvantaged when it comes to knowing any background info on someone in a pick up, and the savant doesn't really have any remarkable edge over any ordinary player who also knows how to push the right buttons so I am lost on the analogy anyway.
  • #33
  • Apr 19, 2008 11:35pm Apr 19, 2008 11:35pm
Quoting tdion
So, in effect, our savant will have success from time to time, but must be willing to accept his success as luck, and failures as bad luck.
Just like trading...but...how does this relate to what I'm doing?
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #34
  • Apr 19, 2008 11:38pm Apr 19, 2008 11:38pm
In all fairness, I am going to step back for awhile and watch your progress. In my humble opinion, any TA based "predictive" system is doomed to fail over time.

BUT

That does not stop me from saying good luck and best wishes.
  • #35
  • Apr 19, 2008 11:42pm Apr 19, 2008 11:42pm
Quoting tdion
In my humble opinion, any TA based "predictive" system is doomed to fail over time.
What kind of trading does work if technical analysis is no good?
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #36
  • Apr 19, 2008 11:48pm Apr 19, 2008 11:48pm
A lot of people on this forum claim to have profitable TA setups. How can I argue with them if they are making live profitable trades with TA?

All I can say is that I believe markets are random, and have no predictive qualities. That doesn't mean that I don't believe fibs, MACD, and RSI will work from time to time. However, here's the big question:

Are you willing to lose 10 to 12 out of 15 trades and cripple your account?

Furthermore, are you willing to replenish your account after such an event, and lose it again?

The bottom line is, I only trade market inefficiences. That is, cause/effect scenarios that go beyond "the chart told me to do it." For more about this, see my Market Ineffeciencies thread.

Sorry to hijack your thread.... That's really about all I can say.
  • #37
  • Apr 20, 2008 1:45am Apr 20, 2008 1:45am
Quoting Thexder
What kind of trading does work if technical analysis is no good?
Every trading system fails at times. Money management is more important than TA.

What is the expectancy of this trading System?
No Fear, No Regrets A sense of purpose makes life meaningful
  • #38
  • Apr 20, 2008 1:48am Apr 20, 2008 1:48am
Quoting Bizken
What is the expectancy of this trading System?
In terms of average return we're looking for a minimum 200 pips a month in the long run so there can be months of break even or some degree of loss followed by 500 pip months. My observation is there seem to be more successful months than losing months (to be further proven with more tests) and that means 300 to 600 pips per month in those winning times. When I see a bad month the next one more than makes up for it.

In terms of trade to trade I don't think I have ever seen more than 2 consecutive losing trades with what I've evaluated.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #39
  • Apr 20, 2008 2:28am Apr 20, 2008 2:28am
Quoting Thexder
Now that there's a marked up chart showing fixed target trades we can analyze the bars and see if there's some way to compromise between always letting trades run hoping for a trend or always taking fixed targets to be safe.

When the up trend including bar 20 occurs it looks in hindsight as if momentum is building up so we know where to start looking at the chart for clues about strength.

The final 2 trades continue with good momentum so what is happening in these trades? When the entry occurs it seems that the bars close strongly to their trend sides, outside the break out area. In the down move on bar 24 the bar closes near the bottom. On the long that breaks out above bar 30, the bar closes near its high and outside the break out area.

Looking at some of the other trades before momentum was established, sometimes the close price after break out was strong and sometimes it closed weakly back within the original price zone.

Maybe it has no significant impact in the long run, maybe it's part of the randomness of price action but until we establish this empirically let's put the observation on a list of things to consider.

In those last 2 trades that closed strong and could have lead to big moves, the fixed targets were hit before the close so there's nothing we could do with the current rules to catch it.

To compromise, let's say if we get a trade initiated that doesn't reach its target on the break out day, if that bar closes strongly, we will remove the fixed target and let the trade run with the stop trailing approach.

If we find this doesn't help we can delete or modify the rule.

Now might be a good time to go back and look at the chart in post 4...
Amazing effort in setting up a trading strategy...congratulations

Allow me, with all respect, to point out that this last post will definitely back fire at you...big time.

I can't give you details as you're the one who's creating the whole structure..only I can give you hints

Just look at momentum related with the time frame you're using

Also I can't find anywhere in your thread how you're dealing with market cycles / market efficiency...something you might want to consider, especially the case of dealing with pullbacks on a higher time frame AKA daily and up.
Peace
  • #40
  • Apr 20, 2008 2:32am Apr 20, 2008 2:32am
Quoting feb2865
I can't give you details as you're the one who's creating the whole structure..only I can give you hints
Maybe when things start becoming stabilized and some tests are run over time, we can look at it and see what can be further considered.
For now at this stage I'm just brute-forcing it with the simplistic evaluation criteria. If we can do well with that and then find that adding more perspectives would help, then it might continue to evolve.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
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