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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #2,361
  • Apr 17, 2008 9:52am Apr 17, 2008 9:52am
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi ,
I heard that Bloomberg ran a report that 2 of the ECb members said they were concerned about inflation and might have to raise interest rates.
I must admit that although this was several hours before the spike up, I only heard about it 2 hours after the spike.
>>>So an unexpected event...interesting!

I wonder if Lusan is still laughing at me for using stops on my $20K real money account ?

Ian
Sure...I am laughing at myself too...Actually my yellow surrender line looks like a stop for the whole trading session...Right?...

You made your point...I am buying an insurance policy...I mean I am ready to pull a plug...

let us laugh together.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,362
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:45am Apr 17, 2008 10:45am
Quoting luSan
What I learned from the book on Black swans.?...we need to purchase an insurance policy! That is my surrender yellow line... and plenty of foreign capital to control the risk....Now, so what is the best place for the surrender line?

Any thoughts?
Hi Lusan,

My 2 cents worth.... may I suggest that you take the surrender yellow line where you place it as the max limit of your daily account.

Example: You would lose a max of 1% or 2% or whatever is your max risk per day in your account. You then further divide this into you skew levels and know your max number of troops. Say at 1% risk you would have a total of 30 troops which means your rescue sequence would be 1-3-5-8-13 or whatever you would calculate it to be. If you hit the bite point you would lose the 1% and take the rest of the day off.

One other thing regarding trend, use the Daily trend but dance on the 5. I believe Fti has mentioned this somewhere in this thread before.
  • #2,363
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:59am Apr 17, 2008 10:59am
Quoting sitoca
Hi Lusan,

My 2 cents worth.... may I suggest that you take the surrender yellow line where you place it as the max limit of your daily account.

Example: You would lose a max of 1% or 2% or whatever is your max risk per day in your account. You then further divide this into you skew levels and know your max number of troops. Say at 1% risk you would have a total of 30 troops which means your rescue sequence would be 1-3-5-8-13 or whatever you would calculate it to be. If you hit the bite point you would lose the 1% and take the rest of the day off.
>>>I like this idea very much. I will demo...yes...Asumming that I come to the trade with the mindset that I already lost that 1 %, then set the yellow line to that point, then trade to my heart content.

One other thing regarding trend, use the Daily trend but dance on the 5. I believe Fti has mentioned this somewhere in this thread before.
>>>yes, he said such a thing but I do not do his dance but my own. My trend is not from the 1D but from both the 15M and 5M and I time with the 30S. I do not recomend this for the faint of heart.
Greeting.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,364
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:05am Apr 17, 2008 11:05am
Quoting luSan
>>>yes, he said such a thing but I do not do his dance but my own. My trend is not from the 1D but from both the 15M and 5M and I time with the 30S. I do not recomend this for the faint of heart.
To each his own and yes it is indeed not for the faint of heart. BUt why do you want to look at the 15 and 5m trend? It would be safer to go with the longer term flow. Obviously I'm saying this on hindsight but had you trade with the Daily trend yesterday, you would have been in profit instead of loss.

Why go against the Daily trend? We are here to make money. Maybe I'm just dancing differently from you hence why I can't see your dance reasons.
  • #2,365
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:52am Apr 17, 2008 11:52am
Quoting sitoca
To each his own and yes it is indeed not for the faint of heart. BUt why do you want to look at the 15 and 5m trend? It would be safer to go with the longer term flow. Obviously I'm saying this on hindsight but had you trade with the Daily trend yesterday, you would have been in profit instead of loss.

Why go against the Daily trend? We are here to make money. Maybe I'm just dancing differently from you hence why I can't see your dance reasons.

Indeed, I prefer not to go against the trend but...I get up at 3;30 am...I must make a decision long or short...I cannot wait for the right setup combination between the 1D, 1H, 15M and 5M...so I modified the strategy...sometimes I must go against the 1D trend...My only 2 failures since I got into the strategy are news and related as yesterday... I do extremly well in the evening (1-2 % ROE) but I cannot real money because I must take care of family....Why so well? Because after 3:00 pm there are no news...oh well...

my reasons I gave them before..(1) time constrains, (2) risk managements, (3) philosophical...and I guess personality....all these I posted here before...

2) I was making money until the big and crazy jump. I was grasping for my last 10 pips for the day...I had already 50 pips in the book and I was ready to end the day....and them kappoon!!

My dance works very well as is unless there are crazy surprises...If I had the time -I have a full time job- I would not even care about the news, and I would dance within the spike itself...but I only have 2 hours for trading...

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,366
  • Apr 17, 2008 6:30pm Apr 17, 2008 6:30pm
Wow, I've just read the last couple of pages and a few memories of fti's teachings come to mind. Here they are:

From his very first post (I have highlighed Capitalisation).

"What many traders do not know, or may fail to recognise, is that your success in taming the markets, is comprised of a mix of ingredients. Not so unlike in baking cakes. I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation."

I can't find the post but fti once mentioned that we should not risk more than 10% for practicing traders or 30% for seasoned ones. I think the idea is not to cut rescues short but to give them a chance. However, it is all put into perspective when he mentioned to start small and build from there.

So as we get better our account will grow naturally. The health of my book is more important than money but I need to make sure my account is capitalised adequately relative to the trade size. I need to feel comfortable and the balance between risk and reward will sort itself out with experience.

Going back to the EUR trade, here is another of fti's teaching

"I don't trade mainly on 5 min, I start there. If reading smooth I stay otherwise I change partners. I analyst daily charts then go in at 5 min and I will dance for as long as she dance well, by the time I dance to daily chart, I leave small boy to dance with her."

You see, he analyses the daily before going to the 5 min. Looking at the daily EUR/USD chart, I cannot see why anyone would go short. It had just triple topped on an increasing trend (right angle triangle) and price was close to the high and at the support level without a sign of weakness after a continuing bull run. Also, fti mentioned traps and I believe it referred to support/resistance areas - being a triple top going into a quadruple was a trap (for going short), however, the second top would be good for the short.

"If it gives you 2nd chance take it, if it gives you 3rd chance, then its likely a trap. If it turns out that its not a trap at 3 then the 4th is definately a trap."

Feeling the market is very important but I have not dropped all technical analysis. I focus on market action but I will use some analysis for assistance that is confirmed by action especially during rescues. I have not had a losing trade since understanding fti's method and dancing with that in mind - That includes trades at the microlot level (MT4), £1 per pip on my spreadbet account and full lots on a $100k demo account.

I don't know why anyone would have a predetermined exit point. It builds rigidity and distracts from rescue opportunities, however, that does not mean one should hold a trade that is dead in the water.

If my scout gets into trouble, I let it bleed, move to another timeframe to find a likely bounce point, confirm with action and enter the rescue. So far I have only had to use one additional troop but I also don't have time restrictions like luSan. My analysis is pretty basic by using just S/R and I intend to compliment it by reading up on compound candle formations but that will be it. I want to keep it simple although feeling the market (dancing) is the important one.
  • #2,367
  • Edited 8:24pm Apr 17, 2008 8:07pm | Edited 8:24pm
I understand where many of you are coming from. But the issue i am facing with this method is simple. You need an account BIG enough to be able to sustain yourself. Lets not argue abt long or short or what not.

If one were to look at a chart objectively, we would agree that bears could $$$ make and bull could make $$$ if we properly streamline our strategies, there will always be apoint in time where the longs would fade and exchange prices with the shorts and vise versa.

Im telling this to you guys straight in the face....YOU MAKE PEANUTS, without a big enough capitalisation.

I remembered fti saying that with proper management he made 30c only and that he is still researching the matter of levarage. If the account is too small, it will never sustain an 8 level rescue. If the account is medium, and 8 level rescue will have the ability to wipe clean you account, you will break the 10% barrier. We will also have to note that rescue sizing fluctuates depending on the distance it is from scouts.

If you trade lots below 0.5...i don't see why your are wasting hours infront of the com screen earning peanuts.

Imagine this, say that the major trend is up and then suddenly it breaks and make 100pip down move instead while you were busy avaraging upwards, my question is simple, how do you capitalise yourself?

Price is price, they move wherever they want, trend is derivative of the price, its just an indication and it can turn whenever it wishes to. So lets not fault lusan or anyone (me? ) here, he has his methods. And he IS doing well.

I must say that i am impressed with leigswww ROI but what if, she happend to meet such a similar situation? Will she have the muscle to draw a further fight? All you need is 1 BAD spike.

My conclusion, either you trade worthless peanuts or you go get you account to a sizeble size to sustain the possible drawdown. Its a good thing that i face this spike earlier rather than later, it opens up a whole new set of perspective to me. Lets hope FTI can clear this up.
  • #2,368
  • Apr 17, 2008 8:07pm Apr 17, 2008 8:07pm
Quoting Zoran
Wow, I've just read the last couple of pages and a few memories of fti's teachings come to mind. Here they are:

From his very first post (I have highlighed Capitalisation).

"What many traders do not know, or may fail to recognise, is that your success in taming the markets, is comprised of a mix of ingredients. Not so unlike in baking cakes. I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation."

I can't find the post but fti once mentioned that we should not risk more than 10% for practicing traders or 30% for seasoned ones. I think the idea is not to cut rescues short but to give them a chance. However, it is all put into perspective when he mentioned to start small and build from there.

So as we get better our account will grow naturally. The health of my book is more important than money but I need to make sure my account is capitalised adequately relative to the trade size. I need to feel comfortable and the balance between risk and reward will sort itself out with experience.

Going back to the EUR trade, here is another of fti's teaching

"I don't trade mainly on 5 min, I start there. If reading smooth I stay otherwise I change partners. I analyst daily charts then go in at 5 min and I will dance for as long as she dance well, by the time I dance to daily chart, I leave small boy to dance with her."

You see, he analyses the daily before going to the 5 min. Looking at the daily EUR/USD chart, I cannot see why anyone would go short. It had just triple topped on an increasing trend (right angle triangle) and price was close to the high and at the support level without a sign of weakness after a continuing bull run. Also, fti mentioned traps and I believe it referred to support/resistance areas - being a triple top going into a quadruple was a trap (for going short), however, the second top would be good for the short.

"If it gives you 2nd chance take it, if it gives you 3rd chance, then its likely a trap. If it turns out that its not a trap at 3 then the 4th is definately a trap."

Feeling the market is very important but I have not dropped all technical analysis. I focus on market action but I will use some analysis for assistance that is confirmed by action especially during rescues. I have not had a losing trade since understanding fti's method and dancing with that in mind - That includes trades at the microlot level (MT4), £1 per pip on my spreadbet account and full lots on a $100k demo account.

I don't know why anyone would have a predetermined exit point. It builds rigidity and distracts from rescue opportunities, however, that does not mean one should hold a trade that is dead in the water.

If my scout gets into trouble, I let it bleed, move to another timeframe to find a likely bounce point, confirm with action and enter the rescue. So far I have only had to use one additional troop but I also don't have time restrictions like luSan. My analysis is pretty basic by using just S/R and I intend to compliment it by reading up on compound candle formations but that will be it. I want to keep it simple although feeling the market (dancing) is the important one.
Zoran, thanks for showing up...it is lonely here...

I agree 100 % with you...playing the 1D and the trend is the safest way...I just cannot do it because of my own constrain...so I take a crazy chance that I do not recommend to anyone. I could go either long or short depending on the 15M and 5M...I wish I could move to another time frame...I only have the 15M to do it or to surrender...still not bad...I like it...but fti's way is much better if you have the time..

Regarding the 10%...thanks...It seems right for my analysis...I set it up as such...my surrender line is about that number...

Best wishes
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,369
  • Apr 17, 2008 8:22pm Apr 17, 2008 8:22pm
Quoting jest1081
I understand where many of you are coming from. But the issue i am facing with this method is simple. You need an account BIG enough to be able to sustain yourself. Lets not argue abt long or short or what not.

If one were to look at a chart objectively, we would agree that bears could $$$ make and bull could make $$$ if we properly streamline our strategies, there will always be apoint in time where the longs would fade and exchange prices with the shorts and vise versa.

Im telling this to you guys straight in the face....YOU MAKE PEANUTS, without a big enough capitalisation.

I remembered fti saying that with proper management he made 30c only and that he is still researching the matter of levarage. If the account is too small, it will never sustain an 8 level rescue. If the account is medium, and 8 level rescue will have the ability to wipe clean you account, you will break the 10% barrier. We will also have to note that rescue sizing fluctuates depending on the distance it is from scouts.

If you trade lots below 0.5...i don't see why your are wasting hours infront of the com screen earning peanuts.

Imagine this, say that the major trend is up and then suddenly it breaks and make 100pip down move instead while you were busy avaraging upwards, lets not argue abt the charts or what we should or should not do, my question is simple, how do you capitalise yourself?

I must say that i am impressed with leigswww ROI but what if, she happend to meet such a similar situation? Will she have the muscle to draw a further fight? All you need is 1 BAD spike.
>>>just a bad one and the whole approach might collapse..something is missing....though I have an idea about the solution...Either dance the post news -flat and regular behavior- or do not trade when the news are out...these period become non-trading period...what is the best approach? I do not know.

My conclusion, either you trade worthless peanuts or you go get you account to a sizeble size to sustain the possible drawdown. Lets hope FTI can clear this up.
Right on! Trading size less than 0.5 minilot are just training sizes...the big $$ is above...why? 100 pips with a minilot size troop is $100 per session...done several times a day is a real salary...and you are done...yes...done...you do not have a boss but yourself...you take it from there.

Consistency? Yes...if you figure out how to manage the news...the strategy really works...but the news break the whole system apart...fti never told us either about when to surrender or to deal with news...well, as far as I can remember...I'd wish he comes back and clarify these points with an interesting story...oh well...where is fti?...I hope he is Ok and well...

Regards
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,370
  • Edited Apr 18, 2008 3:16am Apr 17, 2008 8:51pm | Edited Apr 18, 2008 3:16am
@Lusan,
after yest, my mind was thinking what are possibilities that could allow me to safely average w/o squeezing me up. Gues what? I found no answers, abt news, these things are part of the whole fundamental setup, if we avoid it, we will never be able to be successful at raiding effectively too many pips left on the table, what i can vaguely make out is that you should reduce your exposures prior to news release. Who would have guessed EUR of all currencies could spike 100pips on a cpi data? lol

You can do wonders snowballing a mini lusan. but again i have to stress, capital needs to be large. Lets work out a skew (say 33) which could sustain a mini and an avg of 200pip drawdown (daily atr). 1*33*200pip=$6,600. You need a 66k account to manage a possible 10% drawdown of 6.6k. And we're talking minis bro.

If Applied to a micro account, it will rerquire us $6,600 to trade a micro lot. Of course you can tweak and change the skewing and the atr, it will result in a smaller requirement and a bigger trade allowance, which equates to bigger risk, higher chance of blowing, it doesn't change a thing.

How much to put with the broker? (Example : 1 Micro lot trading)
Well in this case it would be enough if i could supply 1k for micro trading since max skew is worth 330 with a possible drawdown of 660. If i wish to do 2 currencies, then i will have to place 2k. It will translated into 10K for a mini then.
  • #2,371
  • Apr 18, 2008 3:45am Apr 18, 2008 3:45am
Quoting jest1081
@Lusan,
after yest, my mind was thinking what are possibilities that could allow me to safely average w/o squeezing me up. Gues what? I found no answers, abt news, these things are part of the whole fundamental setup, if we avoid it, we will never be able to be successful at raiding effectively too many pips left on the table, what i can vaguely make out is that you should reduce your exposures prior to news release. Who would have guessed EUR of all currencies could spike 100pips on a cpi data? lol

You can do wonders snowballing a mini lusan. but again i have to stress, capital needs to be large. Lets work out a skew (say 33) which could sustain a mini and an avg of 200pip drawdown (daily atr). 1*33*200pip=$6,600. You need a 66k account to manage a possible 10% drawdown of 6.6k. And we're talking minis bro.

If Applied to a micro account, it will rerquire us $6,600 to trade a micro lot. Of course you can tweak and change the skewing and the atr, it will result in a smaller requirement and a bigger trade allowance, which equates to bigger risk, higher chance of blowing, it doesn't change a thing.

How much to put with the broker? (Example : 1 Micro lot trading)
Well in this case it would be enough if i could supply 1k for micro trading since max skew is worth 330 with a possible drawdown of 660. If i wish to do 2 currencies, then i will have to place 2k. It will translated into 10K for a mini then.
Today I did not trade...the many short term S/R levels in the EUR/USD and the 3 kingdoms (!) in the 5M are diverging...(Yes, I began tracking the kingdoms)...so I taking a day off...

Yes...small account and things are tough...I looked yesterday at hedging as away to protect agains the mess...it does not seem to work...it is just another way of having a stop...What about having a market order against our trading trend in another correlated pair? If we are surprised, then we will be in the market and that pair would reduce the risk? Then we close the failing trades and swith pair..problem? How many troops for that pair?

News? I checked the news for next week...3 days full of it during my trading session...no news trading means no trading....so we must be there when the news is happening...yes...maybe reducing size prior to news...but then, what is you are found in a rescue mode...reducing size would be closing trades...a surrender...

Regards
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,372
  • Apr 18, 2008 3:47am Apr 18, 2008 3:47am
Quoting Zoran

"I don't trade mainly on 5 min, I start there. If reading smooth I stay otherwise I change partners. I analyst daily charts then go in at 5 min and I will dance for as long as she dance well, by the time I dance to daily chart, I leave small boy to dance with her."


"If it gives you 2nd chance take it, if it gives you 3rd chance, then its likely a trap. If it turns out that its not a trap at 3 then the 4th is definately a trap."
Hi, Zoran:

Thank you for your reminding. Yes, FTI sai he started from 5m charted, "If reading smooth I stay otherwise I change partners." Basically, I am using the same method. The only problem is MM by now. And dancing with 5 min chart is not easy, 15m and 1 hour have less false signals.

E/U PA on 26 Feb., is a typical proof of "the 4th is definately a trap".

Thanks

David
  • #2,373
  • Edited 4:24am Apr 18, 2008 4:00am | Edited 4:24am
one viable solution is to follow one of fti's trade write ups or green david's previous post.

Upon a retracement, take up a position with the GU instead. This may be a risky move but if you have been watching the ro3k closely, you will know that GU tends to have a stronger swing trend, it will feed you with the required volatilty during the retracement. On the intraday it moves just like Euro but on the daily, its the perfect hedge against Euro, this means Cable has the tendency to fluctuate and give you that required rescue. This will only be viable if you take all 3 pairs as a single correlating entity.

Again all this will depend on your own undersatnding and current behaviour of the three currencies.

i hope no one is offended by what i stated, but i believe i'm merely shedding some reality here, the method needs you to trade with real pockets. If not, ur just a slug. And no way will you be able to snowball a 100k acc with standard lots. At full force you are exposed 3.3mio (size 33 skew) thats already 1/3 of ur acc with a possible drawdown of 6.6mio on a 200pip loss. If any of you think that i'm full of shite, you have the option to disregard my post.
  • #2,374
  • Apr 18, 2008 4:24am Apr 18, 2008 4:24am
Quoting jest1081
I understand where many of you are coming from. But the issue i am facing with this method is simple. You need an account BIG enough to be able to sustain yourself. Lets not argue abt long or short or what not.

... ...
Now I think you understand the reason why I asked you made 0.3% gain, while E/U price dropped 1%.

I hade met several times the same situiation as E/U 100 pips sudden increase. You know, before that you were dancing waltz with E/U using averaging, but suddenly E/U started to dance DISCO. And you can only know her change at the best in the middle, right?

And I quite agree with your saying about daily trend. I remembered I longed E/U @1.48 at the second top, however it had a pullback of 400 pips? If you rescue, you really need a deep pocket for that.

But, still, trading with daily trend surely give us higher odds. However the most important thing is TIMING. I'd rather understand rescue operation as timing re-tuning, a solution to stop sweep problem, and damage control(in damage control case, the scout must get out no matter how much pips lost for that scout, and start over, otherwise you will always think about rescue and maybe turned out to be fighting against the trend).

And my suggestion to you, is, trying to treat 5m dancing for positions set-up and exit, i.e. a way of risk management. The profits shall come from trend riding even for intra-day trading. LuSan has different case, since he traded only one hour.

Try to think about rescue as a re-entry. Maybe that will prevend us from avering loss blindly.

I also had some sufferings by averaging. But I have to admit, FTI's rescue is the most wonderful thing in his MO. But don't misunderstand, and use proper MM, and be patient.

Let us try our best to adopt FTI's valuable MO into our own trading style.

David
  • #2,375
  • Edited 4:56am Apr 18, 2008 4:44am | Edited 4:56am
Thanks David for your advise, i will put it to heart.

but i think my point has been sorely misinterpreted.
My crux is not abt trends or technicals or scouts on sacrificial tables.

What i had laid out on the table is a simple argument abt capitalisation and risk....

you see, lets say my risk is 660, this is real risk, but i trade 1 micro lot. In an average day i bring back peanuts with a micro lot. LOL. but look at my risk! If i made that into 2micro lots, i would have effectively increased my risk by 100% and the only solution is to reduce my skewing by 50%.

Although one could argue that this is almost impossible to happen, i will always stress that we can never disregard the possibilities.

Past two days was a mere 100pip spike...imagine if something worse happen. This may happen at anytime with no regards to the trend. Do you have the muscle to swallow this? Of course the banks can do it, even if they go bust they have the feds to feed them with the required liquidity. What abt us? peanut retailers?

Quoting Green_David
Now I think you understand the reason why I asked you made 0.3% gain, while E/U price dropped 1%...
Yes it becoz i trade peanuts...

Anyway trading like lusan is effective, since i am not a fulltime trader, i still have a day job and a family to take care of. I can't babysit my 5mins all e time it reduces risks too coz he don't suffer from time degradation like we do. its either he makes a clean cut or he scratches it. After that the day ends.
  • #2,376
  • Apr 18, 2008 4:58am Apr 18, 2008 4:58am
jest, at the end of the day, it is what you are comfortable with. This really is something each of us needs to determine ourselves.

Since I have a full time job and I am practicing fti's method, I have no need to make a living out of trading but I still want to have reasonable returns based on account size.

My plan is to go full time in about 2 years and I will need to build my account up during that period, say to at least £100,000. That in itself will be proof that I am ready.

My attack and rescues are relatively mild (1,1,2) but sufficient for now and I am comfortable with attacks and rescues up to the third level. On GBP/JPY I can get about 500 pips on an attack. So using microlots, I get £25 pounds - yes, not a big deal but I don't care about that. It's the trading that matters and I'll increase size as I become more confident. I also trade DOW at £1 per pip and I've only really gone into a 1,1 sequence, banking about £80 on average for 1 trade. The point is not the money but practicing to feel the market and building up slowly. I am in and out fairly quickly in this case unless in rescue. I will also wind out the spirals more aggresively with time and account grow should accelerate, but first I need lots of practice so it all becomes second nature.
  • #2,377
  • Apr 18, 2008 5:09am Apr 18, 2008 5:09am
Quoting jest1081
Thanks David for your advise, i will put it to heart.

... ...
No, brother. I wonder if your calculation is correct or my understanding is wrong.

Suppose you have a trap of 200 pips, and your total troops are 33. It could not be 33*200=$6600. Because you start rescue by levels.

And in your 33 troops, I think it is 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13. So totally it is 6 levels.

In this case, suppose you start rescue by every 30 pips, so the total book loss is 1*200+1*170+2*140...+10*13=$2040. Not 6600.

Please do calculations by yourself to check.

David
  • #2,378
  • Apr 18, 2008 7:19am Apr 18, 2008 7:19am
Today we see another possible "dead in water" case in E/U.

"Guess head or tail. Head again? This time you are wrong again, it's tail."
  • #2,379
  • Edited 7:48am Apr 18, 2008 7:34am | Edited 7:48am
Quoting Green_David
Today we see another possible "dead in water" case in E/U.

"Guess head or tail. Head again? This time you are wrong again, it's tail."

David:

I shall rethink when it closes below the 20 SMA on daily chart or breaks out of the range it has been in since March 20th. It has not closed below the 20 SMA since February 18th.


.
  • #2,380
  • Apr 18, 2008 7:35am Apr 18, 2008 7:35am
Quoting Green_David
Today we see another possible "dead in water" case in E/U.

"Guess head or tail. Head again? This time you are wrong again, it's tail."
Good grace! I just awoke up and checked this one...We have another killing of the bulls in the EUR/USD... Another one.

I was right by being out...I felt that something was wrong...1D was saying we are in a uptrend even though 15M and 5M were screaming "no way, go short", 3kings were diverging, and 5M was in total chaos...it was a postmodernist tune played by the band...USD weak in Europe and strong in Japan...I was confused...

so I took a vacation...yes...day off...why? Unwritten trading rule: "If confused, you get out and FAST."

My problem? There you have it: an 1D uptrend rejected by PA...
the issue? How to manage these situations...

By the way, my last trade before pulling my plug was short because 15M and 5M over-ride 1D...something that some say is stupid...No, wait...it was chear luck... so "1D versus 15M and 5M? that is the dilemma"

Peace
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
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