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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #73,681
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:11pm Apr 17, 2008 3:11pm
Quoting shakesfx
Ok thanks, i was thinking a retracement to 201.20 before a shoot to 205 to form a double top...
There is support formerly resistance at 203.37 below that is support at 202.91. . . 202.11 support was already tested earlier today as I mentioned so I'm not sure why u are thinking 201 area. . . Price is gunning to take out 204.33 intraday resistance and if it does say hello to 205.40 area. . . Asian/Tokyo session will probably take price higher to take out stops above - so I would be very careful!

JMHO!
  • #73,682
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:12pm Apr 17, 2008 3:12pm
Quoting jarroo
Why are you people going short? Help me understand your madness. Are you guessing? What are you basing your shorts on?

Based on the fact that the price has already been rejected 4 times on 1H TF from 204.40's why not make quick 20-35 pips? this is just my opinion!
  • #73,683
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:13pm Apr 17, 2008 3:13pm
Quoting jarroo
Why are you people going short? Help me understand your madness. Are you guessing? What are you basing your shorts on?

Hocus Pocus apparently! - Amazing! =
  • #73,684
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:17pm Apr 17, 2008 3:17pm
Quoting LeoBond
Based on the fact that the price has already been rejected 4 times on 1H TF from 204.40's why not make quick 20-35 pips? this is just my opinion!
Valid point however it's very risky in a bull markets. . .
Price can shoot up at any time so you would rather risk trying to gain 20-30 pips vs. price shooting 100 pips against u. Not saying that it won't work sometimes but more often than not you will lose on the trade.

A better trade would be to wait for price to pull back to test support (that was previously resistance) and enter with the trend with min risk to the down side and more than 150-200 pips to the upside. . . with a SL just beneath support. . .
  • #73,685
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:19pm Apr 17, 2008 3:19pm
Quoting quecee5
Very valid however it's very risky in a bull markets. . .
Price can shoot up at any time so you would rather risk trying to gain 20-30 pips vs. price shooting 100 pips against u. Not saying that it won't work sometimes but more often than not you will lose on the trade.
I didn't mention that I have stop losses also set otherwise it would be a complete maddnes also micro lots do the magic if such things happen! MM rules!
  • #73,686
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:20pm Apr 17, 2008 3:20pm
Quoting quecee5
Hocus Pocus apparently! - Amazing! =
Que, I like your analysis because you give both sides of the story. Your analysis shows reasons to short and reason to go long. And when one side out weights the other, a reasonable trade can take place. Something we all should learn from you.

But I hate seeing people lose money. It SUCKS.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #73,687
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:21pm Apr 17, 2008 3:21pm
Quoting quecee5
A better trade would be to wait for price to pull back to test support (that was previously resistance) and enter with the trend with min risk to the down side and more than 150-200 pips to the upside. . . with a SL just beneath support. . .
TOTALLY AGREE! That is what everyone is waiting for! I am no exception!
  • #73,688
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:23pm Apr 17, 2008 3:23pm
Quoting LeoBond
I didn't mention that I have stop losses also set otherwise it would be a complete maddnes also micro lots do the magic if such things happen! MM rules!
I like it. A man with a plan.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #73,689
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:25pm Apr 17, 2008 3:25pm
Quoting quecee5
Hocus Pocus apparently! - Amazing! =

I was thinking it is a false breakout....



Your advice is most welcome...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp-1 4hr 17-04.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp-1 daily 17-04.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #73,690
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:25pm Apr 17, 2008 3:25pm
Quoting malcolmb14
If all thing remian equal and the GJ keeps with the trend on the 4 hour and breaks the 50 sma , the chnaces of a retracement to 202.5 are VERY HIGH

Looking forward .... Friday between 11am and 1 pm pacific standards is when we will hit it.

Simple geometry

Attachment
It was higher and faster.... but in the same direction .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #73,691
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:26pm Apr 17, 2008 3:26pm
Quoting malcolmb14
204.5 is my target....daily 50 sma. The candle on the daily is very bullish.

The market is risk tolerant again . Be careful on adding shorts.

We broke out of the bull flag on the daily and have been heading up as per my earlier posts this week when I noted the trend was changing on the 2 hour charts,

Attachment
Hit target... now what ?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #73,692
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:32pm Apr 17, 2008 3:32pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Hit target... now what ?
I don't smoke by the way.....
Attached Image
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #73,693
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:33pm Apr 17, 2008 3:33pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Hit target... now what ?
Take some off the table and give it a chance to run.

I sure you know this, malcolmb. lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #73,694
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:34pm Apr 17, 2008 3:34pm
Q, it most likely hood GJ is going to close below the Weekley GANN. Would't that be significant?
  • #73,695
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:38pm Apr 17, 2008 3:38pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
i think it was a buy the rumour move right accross the board for the pound - rumour is that the government are planning a bail out for the mortgage market in the uk or something like that info due to be released this week - this gives the world a false sence of pound strength in my opinion.
to add to this GJ is no longer going to be the carry trade of choice - AJ has the better interest rate spread now by far and will most likely give GJ a good run for it's money - Yen investors have finished there tax returns and looking to get there money back on the playing field.

I'd say don't be supprised to see GU GJ and Gchf drop - no not tonight, but overall in the next few weeks tread carefully is all i'm saying
  • #73,696
  • Edited 3:49pm Apr 17, 2008 3:38pm | Edited 3:49pm
Quoting jarroo
Que, I like your analysis because you give both sides of the story. Your analysis shows reasons to short and reason to go long. And when one side out weights the other, a reasonable trade can take place. Something we all should learn from you.

But I hate seeing people lose money. It SUCKS.
Thxs for the kind words my friend - I enjoy your analysis and your discipline.

I don't enjoy hearing people losing money because many of us have been there and done that as well. That's why I mentioned that many newbies on this thread would benefit from reading or re-reading Aus's strategy to have at least some guidelines for taking a trade. . .

Many must learn that if you are unsure of a trade then it's best to sit on the side lines and watch and learn rather than lose hard earned cash. . . The other thing I see on this thread is people getting married to a position when clearly the end goal should be to earn pips long or short. . .

Sometimes it's best to re-evaluate thought process when certain conditions have invalidated a direction or set-up. . . And lastly it's always good to perform analysis both ways with conditions as you have stated, helps to understand why you entered a trade. . .

For example:
Support at 198 and 196.51, if support holds and price closes above 1hr 5 SMA and 1hr gann hi/lo and QQE or ZLS has crossed upwards - enter trade to the long side

however, if price falls below 198 with a close below 1hr 5 SMA and 1hr gann hi/lo and QQE has crossed down then enter trade to the short side with TP set at @ 196.75/50 area 1st target. . .

Instead we hear going short, going long with no justification for the trade. . . C'mon people that's not what this thread is all about and will confuse most newbies coming to the thread.
  • #73,697
  • Edited 3:51pm Apr 17, 2008 3:41pm | Edited 3:51pm
Quoting vinesh2
Q, it most likely hood GJ is going to close below the Weekley GANN. Would't that be significant?
what would be significant is if price closed above the daily 55/50 EMA, go back and look at the last time price closed above it and see what happened. If this happens then I see price testing 205.40 area - a break and close above this resistance turned support and I will be a buyer on a pullback or a re-test of support for a long up to 209 area 1st target. . .

Just my two cents. . .
  • #73,698
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:43pm Apr 17, 2008 3:43pm
Attached Image
  • #73,699
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:45pm Apr 17, 2008 3:45pm
resistance at 204.58
fibo expansion 100% from last retracement...
  • #73,700
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:51pm Apr 17, 2008 3:51pm
Quoting quecee5
Thxs for the kind words my friend - I enjoy your analysis and your discipline.

I don't enjoy hearing people losing money because many of us have been there and done that as well. That's why I mentioned that many newbies on this thread would benefit from reading or re-reading Aus's strategy to have at least some guidelines for taking a trade. . .

Many must learn that if you are unsure of a trade then it's best to sit on the side lines and watch and learn rather than lose hard earned cash. . . The other thing I see on this thread is people getting married to a position when clearly the end goal should be to earn pips long or short. . .

Sometimes it's best to re-evaluate thought process when certain conditions have invalidated a direction or set-up. . . And lastly it's always good to perform analysis both ways with conditions as you have stated, helps to understand why you entered a trade. . .

For example:
Support at 198 and 196.51, if support hold and price closes above 1hr 5 SMA and 1hr gann hi/lo cross - enter trade to the long side

however, if price falls below 198 with a close below 1hr 5 SMA and 1hr gann hi/lo and and QQE has crossed down then enter trade to the short side with TP set at @ 196.75/50 area 1st target. . .

Instead we hear going short, going long with no justification for the trade. . . C'mon people that's not what this thread is all about and will confuse most newbies coming to the thread.
Nice Que. Some great points in this for new and old traders.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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