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I see oil reaching 100 USD?!

  • #181
  • Apr 16, 2008 1:47pm Apr 16, 2008 1:47pm
Quoting merlin
yeah im still waiting for de123 to tell us how much money he made
Oh come on, we all know you're just waiting for a chance to pounce on it again and short the odd 30-40$ out of it like last time :

Prolly hiding in the bushes with Narafa, cleaning those rifles!
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #182
  • Apr 16, 2008 1:52pm Apr 16, 2008 1:52pm
LOL! yes i was in the bushes for quite a while. but quarters got cramped, and narafa snores really loud, so i had to move to higher ground
Relax and be happy.
  • #183
  • Apr 16, 2008 9:52pm Apr 16, 2008 9:52pm
Quoting fierceman
The Vice President of Lukoil says Russian production has PEAKED. If true, this is a very serious statement and could have an enormous impact on oil prices and the world economy.

Source: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/282adfd4-0...0779fd2ac.html (you have to register).
I have to ask though, how much of the world's potential reserves do we honestly know about? I doubt that Russia honestly knows the whereabouts of absolutely all of their potential oil reserves. Beyond that, even if it's peaked, how long are they going to hold the peak? Too many variables left unturned.
Never underestimate the powers of the Force.
  • #184
  • Apr 16, 2008 10:39pm Apr 16, 2008 10:39pm
Quoting The Jedi
I have to ask though, how much of the world's potential reserves do we honestly know about? I doubt that Russia honestly knows the whereabouts of absolutely all of their potential oil reserves. Beyond that, even if it's peaked, how long are they going to hold the peak? Too many variables left unturned.


Right, and in who's interest is it to say Russian oil has "peaked". Come on folks, step right up, going out of business sale. Down to the last drop.
  • #185
  • Apr 16, 2008 11:19pm Apr 16, 2008 11:19pm
Quoting SunTrader


Right, and in who's interest is it to say Russian oil has "peaked". Come on folks, step right up, going out of business sale. Down to the last drop.
Absolutely, that's why I said:
Quoting fierceman
If true, this is a very serious statement

Quoting The Jedi
I have to ask though, how much of the world's potential reserves do we honestly know about?
I would say most. The only new finds these days are miniscule (compared to past finds and compared to demand), difficult to bring up or low quality crude. While I don't think world production is necessarily at a peak right now, this is a clear and present danger and it will happen sooner rather than later.

Guys, I sense that there is a high degree of optimism/complacency here about the future of oil production and I fail to see where this comes from. I hope it's not based on some huge, imaginary as-yet-undiscovered oil field. There is no such thing. As I said before, the 8 billion barrels they found in Brazil (which is itself an optimistic estimate) is enough to feed world demand for 95 days at current demand levels. That's 3 months. In other words, in the grand scheme of things, it's nothing.
  • #186
  • Apr 17, 2008 2:48am Apr 17, 2008 2:48am
Personally I've always wondered whether the oil USED for the wars(as in: material, ammo, fuel, troops, transport, logistics, supply, etc) fought OVER oil, if all taken together, wouldn't have conserved enough to make up for quite a portion of the oil having been fought over.

Probably just a peacemonger's idealistic fantasy though

But to be more serious - I think it's nothing to take serious yet on an INDIVIDUAL scale, because it's pretty much out of your hands as a "citizen".
The powers that be will not start putting > 3 liter motors on a ban anytime soon, release new, realistic emission laws, enforce energy conserving and alternative sources, simply because a lot of these options are not economic in nature, sod the future, elections are NOW.

And I'm not talking about the USA or any particular country, I'm saying this in general. There IS a country that just enforeced the energy saving lightbulb though(wasn't this Australia?) instead of the traditional ones, and things like that should/would/need to be mandatory if we are to make any energy sense at all. If we don't use our science and progress to substitute for 'raw power', then we WILL get hit by it eventually.

It's just not something I personally can change(as in real dimensions) much more than choosing my personal consumption and behavioral attitude.

And I bet most people are more worried about losing a job than losing an oil supply, some time, eventually, in "the future".
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #187
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:20am Apr 17, 2008 3:20am
Quoting SeekingLight
There IS a country that just enforeced the energy saving lightbulb though(wasn't this Australia?) instead of the traditional ones,
Yeah, supposed to be us. Not sure what's happened there though. We had a change of government a few weeks later. :

Not a good idea anyway. Those newer bulbs are prone to short life when you have crappy power. Expensive way to go if you're replacing them every few weeks anyway. If they can improve that aspect I'll be all for it.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #188
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:51am Apr 17, 2008 3:51am
Quoting SeekingLight
There IS a country that just enforeced the energy saving lightbulb though(wasn't this Australia?)
They are phasing it in in the US starting 2012. It has already been signed into law. It's pretty amazing when you look at the numbers actually:
http://www.reuters.com/article/envir...62029920071221
  • #189
  • Apr 17, 2008 4:19am Apr 17, 2008 4:19am
Quoting fierceman
They are phasing it in in the US starting 2012.

Ah, good old America.
Always in a rush to save consumers' money and spare the environment.
Not that we're in a hurry over here at all, either.

I've been buying them ever since they started cropping up.
It's a no brainer - last longer, cost less(product + energy saving) = profit!


IMHO the best way to save the environment is to come up with stuff that saves money parallel to it, but I'm afraid this is quite a rare occassion...

Like, there's only better insulation and heat/energy management for houses, the lightbulbs, motors/engines, actual power disconnect switches instead of standby...hmmmm, maybe it isn't so rare...kinda makes you wonder.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #190
  • Apr 17, 2008 5:05am Apr 17, 2008 5:05am
Quoting SeekingLight
IMHO the best way to save the environment is to come up with stuff that saves money parallel to it, but I'm afraid this is quite a rare occassion...
With the cost of energy rising at this pace, and the amount of economic destruction our environmental problems are causing, environment saving and money saving are slowly becoming synonymous. Too bad it took so long. That is the key weakness of free market capitalism IMO - it's a no limits system superimposed on a limited world.

BTW, I have those bulbs installed all over my house as well, I spend about $3/week at the petrol station and I very rarely use air conditioning, so I'm a pretty good boy too. If everyone could be like you and me, we wouldn't have an energy crisis on our hands, we wouldn't have global warming, and the Saudis wouldn't be nearly as rich .
  • #191
  • Apr 17, 2008 9:11am Apr 17, 2008 9:11am
Quoting fierceman
With the cost of energy rising at this pace, and the amount of economic destruction our environmental problems are causing, environment saving and money saving are slowly becoming synonymous. Too bad it took so long. That is the key weakness of free market capitalism IMO - it's a no limits system superimposed on a limited world.

BTW, I have those bulbs installed all over my house as well, I spend about $3/week at the petrol station and I very rarely use air conditioning, so I'm a pretty good boy too. If everyone could be like you and me, we wouldn't have an energy crisis on our hands, we wouldn't have global warming, and the Saudis wouldn't be nearly as rich .
Got them here too. Even using one on my lead light in the garage. (got an LED one now too) This area isn't too bad where I am. My folks place though... ....Power probs have them replacing their saver globes every few months.

LEDs ....They're the future guys.

.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #192
  • Apr 17, 2008 9:13am Apr 17, 2008 9:13am
Part of where my optimism comes from is that I have 2 cousins who have been working in the oil exploration industry for the past 20 years - starting in Nigeria, then Indonesia and now back in the USA.

As has been stated the probelm is not supply, it is demand. That is where we are screwed. China and India want to be mobile like the rest of us.

We started with the wheel and horses, donkeys and burrows. Hot air balloons and coal fired steam engines, then gas and diesel. Next solar, wind and a hell of a lot more nuclear.

It always takes, push comes to shove, to have change happen. It will though regardless of the forces against it.
  • #193
  • Apr 17, 2008 9:31am Apr 17, 2008 9:31am
Quoting fierceman
I spend about $3/week at the petrol station and I very rarely use air conditioning
Even if you drive one of the "Smart" cars - you need to get out of the house a lot more.

I think I used $3 in electricty in the last hour on my A/C bill. Try living in South Florida without AC. Oh and do you recall how many hundreds or maybe it was over 1000 who died in mainly France but elsewhere in Europe in the heat wave of I think ? 2006 because of the scarity of AC. Yeah I know, from global warming. Us bad Americans again. We are the cause because we use the most. So that excuses everyone else.

Here is a little info I found on Wikipedia:

"In 2004 the total greenhouse gas emissions from the People's Republic of China were about 54% of the USA emissions. However, China is now building on average one coal-fired power plant every week, and plans to continue doing so for years. Various predictions see China overtaking the US in total greenhouse emissions between late 2007 and 2010, and according to many other estimates, this already occurred in 2006".

This is a worldwide issue and needs a worldwide response. The US and Europe will lead with the technology but we can't stop our economies to "save" energy.
  • #194
  • Apr 18, 2008 2:21am Apr 18, 2008 2:21am
Quoting SunTrader
Even if you drive one of the "Smart" cars - you need to get out of the house a lot more.

I think I used $3 in electricty in the last hour on my A/C bill. Try living in South Florida without AC. Oh and do you recall how many hundreds or maybe it was over 1000 who died in mainly France but elsewhere in Europe in the heat wave of I think ? 2006 because of the scarity of AC. Yeah I know, from global warming. Us bad Americans again. We are the cause because we use the most. So that excuses everyone else.

Here is a little info I found on Wikipedia:

"In 2004 the total greenhouse gas emissions from the People's Republic of China were about 54% of the USA emissions. However, China is now building on average one coal-fired power plant every week, and plans to continue doing so for years. Various predictions see China overtaking the US in total greenhouse emissions between late 2007 and 2010, and according to many other estimates, this already occurred in 2006".

This is a worldwide issue and needs a worldwide response. The US and Europe will lead with the technology but we can't stop our economies to "save" energy.
Where did I say anything about blaming America? Those are your own words. While America has it's share of the blame, by no means have I ever tried to single it out other than to say that America is one of the few places in the world where a solution has a chance of being found.

And try living in the south of Thailand without AC. It gets hotter here than it does in Florida, and yet, somehow we survive, as have scores of generations before us... Weird.

And no I don't drive a car at all, I ride a motorcycle (it could be $4/week lately, I don't keep exact accounts).

Anyway, I'm glad you're catching on to the fact that this is a global problem and that it needs a global response. If i recall correctly, a few months ago you didn't even acknowledge we had a problem, so I guess we are making progress. Peace man .

Bundy, good to know about the LEDs... I've only seen them in flashlights here, but I'll keep an eye out for the bigger ones.
  • #195
  • Apr 18, 2008 5:19am Apr 18, 2008 5:19am
$4/week on a motorcycle at what kind of price do you pay at the pump? Or what kind of distance do you travel? Its none of my business of course. But everyone has different needs. Americans on average drive 12-15000 miles a year. Most here in Florida drive way more than that because of the distance involved in getting around. And when you have distance to travel you don't do it on a motorcycle.

Great that you can do it and keep your travelling costs down but it is not practical for most in most situations, at least in this country.

I know you didn't specifically blame ths USA, yet!!!
  • #196
  • Apr 18, 2008 6:48am Apr 18, 2008 6:48am
During the monsoon season, I do wish for a car sometimes

I hear what you're saying about practicality, but it really won't be practical for people to pay $1,000 to fill up their tanks either, and yet the way we're going it seems inevitable (yes, that is an exaggeration). The only difference is that it's impractical "at some point in the future" whereas making sacrifices now in order to have a better future entails a great deal of effort, especially on a collective level. People just don't seem to be motivated by ideas that involve voluntarily giving up their comfort for some abstract idea such as the future well being of humanity.

There is also the difficulty in overcoming the "why should I make sacrifices when no one else is?" mentality, which is of course quite valid. If the world is going down anyway, why bother making sacrifices? My 8W light bulbs are insignificant in a world that consumes 85 million barrels of oil per day. This "save the world" thing is only going to work if the majority do it, and the majority won't do it until they see that the majority is doing it. Kind of a catch-22 situation I guess.

On a side note, a major reason why so many people need to drive so much is because of something called the "suburbs", which has been called by some "the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world."

Anyway, we're veering a bit off topic, and USD is breaking out, so I'm outta here for now.
  • #197
  • Apr 18, 2008 12:44pm Apr 18, 2008 12:44pm
Over half the worlds population lives in connurbations of over 500,000
$100 is cheap at twice the price in the not too distant future.
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #198
  • Apr 20, 2008 8:26pm Apr 20, 2008 8:26pm
Quoting Swami S
connurbations
Does that mean communities ?
  • #199
  • Apr 20, 2008 8:28pm Apr 20, 2008 8:28pm
http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/n...p_logo_106.png

OPEC chief: Oil prices would go higher regardless of supply

By MARIA GRAZIA MURRU, Associated Press WriterSun Apr 20, 3:17 PM ET


OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah el al-Badri said Sunday oil prices would likely go higher and that the group was ready to raise production if the price pressure was due to a shortage of supply — something he doubted.
"Oil prices, there is a common understanding that has nothing to do with supply and demand," al-Badri said on the sidelines of an energy conference in Rome.
Oil prices reached a new high Friday at $117 a barrel.
A host of supply and demand concerns in the U.S. and abroad, along with the dollar's weakness, have served to support prices, even as record retail gasoline prices in the U.S. appear to be dampening demand. Crude prices have risen as much as 4 percent last week.
The OPEC chief said the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries "will not hesitate" to increase production if the group thought the higher prices were due to shortages. But he said more oil will not solve the high prices.
OPEC's production levels were just one of many factors, he said.
"But how much higher it will go, of course it depends on a number of things: the political situation, whether there is a natural catastrophe, whether there are speculations in the market, whether there are strikes in certain producing countries. So there are many other factors other than OPEC production," al-Badri said.








  • #200
  • Edited 12:57am Apr 21, 2008 12:23am | Edited 12:57am
Refining capacity is also a huge issue, and could prove to be the next bottleneck even if crude production manages to rise, particularly because more and more of the new crude being produced is heavy and difficult to refine.

Also, according to Deutsche Bank Chief Energy Economist, prices could reach $150 if there is a major disruption.

(Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm...EqxYNpvX.s.asf)
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