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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #73,241
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:17am Apr 15, 2008 8:17am
The trend is my friend
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #73,242
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:17am Apr 15, 2008 8:17am
Quoting quecee5
I agree - however EU will probably complete this wave cycle (5 of 5) before reversing - I see at least another attempt @ above 1.59 to 1.60/1.6050 area back down to 1.5340 eventually. . .

I'm not in any EU nor GJ trade - waiting for the right set-up before entering.
Hi quecee,

Hmmm, I must admit that am not a fan of the Elliot wave theory (5 cycles). For me it does not have enough statistical significance to use in a trading methodology.



I think that the ECB wants the EUR/USD much lower...and they want it to happen soon.!!!

1. The ECB quietly jawboned the market on the weekend and it gapped down 150 pips (that is a significant "gap" for the Euro)

2..If they lower the interest rates the Euro will drop like a stone.

3. If the ECB is still not happy with the Euro's price, then they will "intervene" in the market (that's polite talk for selling the crap out of it and buying USDs)....and you do NOT want to be on the wrong side if that happens

.
  • #73,243
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:18am Apr 15, 2008 8:18am
Quoting DutchTrader
EU needs to complete the cycle towards 1.60 before a massive selloff. These dips have been just a taste of what's to come after we hit 1.60
Agreed =
  • #73,244
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:21am Apr 15, 2008 8:21am
Quoting jacko
Hi quecee,

Hmmm, I must admit that am not a fan of the Elliot wave theory (5 cycles). For me it does not have enough statistical significance to use in a trading methodology.



I think that the ECB wants the EUR/USD much lower...and they want it to happen soon.!!!

1. The ECB quietly jawboned the market on the weekend and it gapped down 150 pips (that is a significant "gap" for the Euro)

2..If they lower the interest rates the Euro will drop like a stone.

3. If the ECB is still not happy with the Euro's price, then they will "intervene" in the market (that's polite talk for selling the crap out of it and buying USDs)....and you do NOT want to be on the wrong side if that happens

.

true, plus it's about time they do that before summer if they want their exports to pick up
  • #73,245
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:21am Apr 15, 2008 8:21am
Quoting lilmoe
true, plus it's about time they do that before summer if they want their exports to pick up

same for yen
  • #73,246
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:29am Apr 15, 2008 8:29am
Quoting lilmoe
true, plus it's about time they do that before summer if they want their exports to pick up
The ECB will act much faster than that. (within the next two weeks...and sooner rather than later)

They jawboned the market on the weekend....the market dropped but then started to recover .....the ECB would have been very annoyed by that (they had sent a subtle message to the market at the G7 meeting and the market attempted to trade against it...) so they will start cranking up the pressure to get the Euro lower.

If the market doesn't get the hint, or worse, tries to trade against it, the ECB will slap the market hard.

But the main issue is that the ECB wants the EUR/USD lower.


Just my opinion...and I could be wwwwrong !!!
.
  • #73,247
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:30am Apr 15, 2008 8:30am
this trendline i posted earlier is getting on my nerves, i'm waiting on it to break to add more shorts...
  • #73,248
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:31am Apr 15, 2008 8:31am
Quoting jacko
Hi quecee,

Hmmm, I must admit that am not a fan of the Elliot wave theory (5 cycles). For me it does not have enough statistical significance to use in a trading methodology.



I think that the ECB wants the EUR/USD much lower...and they want it to happen soon.!!!

1. The ECB quietly jawboned the market on the weekend and it gapped down 150 pips (that is a significant "gap" for the Euro)

2..If they lower the interest rates the Euro will drop like a stone.

3. If the ECB is still not happy with the Euro's price, then they will "intervene" in the market (that's polite talk for selling the crap out of it and buying USDs)....and you do NOT want to be on the wrong side if that happens

.
I hear ya - I guess we'll have to wait and see how it plays out. I'm still expecting further upside before it heads back down (1.60/1.6060).

But again - I don't have a poistion in EU nor GJ right now, too many nice set-ups emerging so I choose to wait to see how they develop before taking a position.

Are you short this pair????
  • #73,249
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:38am Apr 15, 2008 8:38am
Quoting jacko
The ECB will act much faster than that. (within the next two weeks...and sooner rather than later)

They jawboned the market on the weekend....the market dropped but then started to recover .....the ECB would have been very annoyed by that (they had sent a subtle message to the market at the G7 meeting and the market attempted to trade against it...) so they will start cranking up the pressure to get the Euro lower.

If the market doesn't get the hint, or worse, tries to trade against it, the ECB will slap the market hard.

But the main issue is that the ECB wants the EUR/USD lower.


Just my opinion...and I could be wwwwrong !!!
.
It's a known fact that intervention rarely if ever works, if the markets want to take EU higher eventually it will go higher. . . Look what happen to the Aus when the RBA tried to intervene about a year ago. . .
  • #73,250
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:41am Apr 15, 2008 8:41am
Quoting jacko
The ECB will act much faster than that. (within the next two weeks...and sooner rather than later)

They jawboned the market on the weekend....the market dropped but then started to recover .....the ECB would have been very annoyed by that (they had sent a subtle message to the market at the G7 meeting and the market attempted to trade against it...) so they will start cranking up the pressure to get the Euro lower.

If the market doesn't get the hint, or worse, tries to trade against it, the ECB will slap the market hard.

But the main issue is that the ECB wants the EUR/USD lower.


Just my opinion...and I could be wwwwrong !!!
.
I thought the ECB is happy with high Euro\USD as it negates inflation. Wouldnt have thought the exports to the US would be significant.
  • #73,251
  • Edited 8:52am Apr 15, 2008 8:42am | Edited 8:52am
Quoting quecee5
I hear ya - I guess we'll have to wait and see how it plays out. I'm still expecting further upside before it heads back down (1.60/1.6060).

But again - I don't have a poistion in EU nor GJ right now, too many nice set-ups emerging so I choose to wait to see how they develop before taking a position.

Are you short this pair????
Hi quecee,

I, personally, am not short the euro, but some of my group are short from 1.5860.

I think that the Euro and GBP may recover slightly, but I don't see 1.6000 just yet.

I think that the ECB is getting impatient. And they would NOT have been impressed by the market recovery from the gap down over the weekend.

.
  • #73,252
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:43am Apr 15, 2008 8:43am
Quoting quecee5
It's a known fact that intervention rarely if ever works, if the markets want to take EU higher eventually it will go higher. . . Look what happen to the Aus when the RBA tried to intervene about a year ago. . .
I Think that was NZ Reserve Bank.
  • #73,253
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:44am Apr 15, 2008 8:44am
Quoting quecee5
It's a known fact that intervention rarely if ever works, if the markets want to take EU higher eventually it will go higher. . . Look what happen to the Aus when the RBA tried to intervene about a year ago. . .
Yeah that worked out really well didn't it? Check the BoJ's record of intervention. I think the difference btw now and those previous instances of intervention is the abysmal state of the US economy, coupled with the credit crunch.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #73,254
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:49am Apr 15, 2008 8:49am
Althought I see GJ going down further medium-term, it looks to me that it is a bit OS or becoming OS as indicated by the 4hr chart. . .

It appears to me that 196.80/90 - 197 area could cap this move down before heading back up a bit before resuming the downtrend. We may see it go back to the top of the channel 201.80-202.50 area before breaking lower support @ 197 area. . .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr chart.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #73,255
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:54am Apr 15, 2008 8:54am
sell rallies, trend is down
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #73,256
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:56am Apr 15, 2008 8:56am
Quoting quecee5
Althought I see GJ going down further medium-term, it looks to me that it is a bit OS or becoming OS as indicated by the 4hr chart. . .

It appears to me that 196.80/90 - 197 area could cap this move down before heading back up a bit before resuming the downtrend. We may see it go back to the top of the channel 201.80-202.50 area before breaking lower support @ 197 area. . .
all respect, however, i don't see gj oversold on my h4 chart, and even if so, i've seen this pair drop 500 points while extremely oversold

after all, this is the beast
  • #73,257
  • Apr 15, 2008 9:06am Apr 15, 2008 9:06am
hi dear Q
pls what is your point of view about daily elliot wave DOW ?
thanks
  • #73,258
  • Apr 15, 2008 9:13am Apr 15, 2008 9:13am
just my preview gj at h4 chart...gj trend still strong to be down again...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h13.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #73,259
  • Apr 15, 2008 9:14am Apr 15, 2008 9:14am
Quoting lilmoe
all respect, however, i don't see gj oversold on my h4 chart, and even if so, i've seen this pair drop 500 points while extremely oversold

after all, this is the beast
lol! - I hear ya!

Look at this chart (rsi) see where GJ has been operating (30-70).

My statement was that GJ may be starting to become over sold and could drop further to 197 area before heading back up to the top of the channel. Or a break of lower support would add credence to further downside. . .

Hope this helps
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #73,260
  • Apr 15, 2008 9:15am Apr 15, 2008 9:15am
Quoting fising
just my preview gj at h4 chart...gj trend still strong to be down again...

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