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Currency Cycles

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 12, 2008 11:20am Apr 12, 2008 11:20am
All things in life are cyclical, especially human beings. Do you know the dominant cycle of the currency you are trading? It may seem obvious, but few traders use it.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/w...frontpage1.png
  • #2
  • Apr 12, 2008 11:22am Apr 12, 2008 11:22am
Long Term Cycle - Down
In January 2008 the Pound entered a long term down cycle and made a multi-month low of 1.9336. Since that time, approximately 2 1/2 months, price has rebounded and moved sideways. It now appears to be moving down once again.
Short Term Cycle - Down
In 2008, within the long term down structure there have been two short term cycles

  1. January 10 - February 13 - A down cycle that did not see significant decline and moved sideways
  2. February 27 - April 1 - An up cycle that advanced to near 2.04 but did not advance and moved sideways
  3. April 6 - Present - Current down cycle beginning and in harmony with longer term structure

  • #3
  • Apr 12, 2008 11:23am Apr 12, 2008 11:23am

GBP - Short Term Cycle - Down


The pound entered a short term downward cycle on April 6. I am establishing short positions in this currency at 1.9700 or better.
  • #4
  • Edited 12:00pm Apr 12, 2008 11:38am | Edited 12:00pm
Quoting bearded_clam

GBP - Short Term Cycle - Down





The pound entered a short term downward cycle on April 6. I am establishing short positions in this currency at 1.9700 or better.
Thanks...I have heard much of the same. In fact I have heard of a few people placing there long term profit target at or around 1.7.

One question....what things do you look at when determining that long term cycle?
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #5
  • Apr 12, 2008 4:07pm Apr 12, 2008 4:07pm
For long term cycles to begin I look at only one thing...PRICE. As far a the duration I use many criteria but the most important is TIME. Long term trends are tough to stay in. Moves can swing many hundred ticks against a position. To me, when the long term dominant trend is in sync with the short term, it presents a worthwhile risk threshold. That's just where the pound is now.

Structurally, I can see where 2.35 is a possibility but I go with my system which is based on all I have which is price. I am short and it is difficult.
  • #6
  • Apr 12, 2008 6:14pm Apr 12, 2008 6:14pm
Cycles appear in hindsight on charts. Chaos prevails in the future. The problem is, nobody is certain where the tops and bottoms are.
  • #7
  • Apr 12, 2008 9:07pm Apr 12, 2008 9:07pm
thx for the info..

how would you interpret this?
http://www.shareapic.net/preview3/007513514.gif
  • #8
  • Apr 14, 2008 4:00pm Apr 14, 2008 4:00pm
The USDollar Index ended a recent short term down cycle on April 7th. This cycle began on February 26, 2007. Currently there is no cycle and I am flat.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...DXY%204-14.PNG
  • #9
  • Apr 14, 2008 4:26pm Apr 14, 2008 4:26pm
Quoting tdion
Cycles appear in hindsight on charts. Chaos prevails in the future. The problem is, nobody is certain where the tops and bottoms are.

I do not try to pick tops and bottoms. Quite the opposite, once price confirms a directional cycle, then I enter or exit a position. I am never the first in or the first out.

Hindsight makes a wonderful chart and makes an analyst seem like a forecaster of future price movement. I have been thinking of starting a website to keep track of all the predictions made on Bloomberg everyday. Sort of a scorecard for all the knowledge that is blasted forth.
  • #10
  • Apr 14, 2008 4:27pm Apr 14, 2008 4:27pm
Looks like a rocket ship to me

Quoting Postrock
thx for the info..

how would you interpret this?
http://www.shareapic.net/preview3/007513514.gif
  • #11
  • Apr 14, 2008 4:49pm Apr 14, 2008 4:49pm
What if I didn't heard about cycles and wish to change it?
  • #12
  • Apr 14, 2008 7:38pm Apr 14, 2008 7:38pm
Quoting bearded_clam
Looks like a rocket ship to me
hehe..sure seems so..but we dont know if Europe will decide to contrast such a rise..

Quoting bearded_clam
This cycle began on February 26, 2007
That was my birthday..a sign maybe?
  • #13
  • Last Post: Apr 15, 2008 3:18am Apr 15, 2008 3:18am
Quoting bearded_clam
All things in life are cyclical, especially human beings. Do you know the dominant cycle of the currency you are trading? It may seem obvious, but few traders use it.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/w...frontpage1.png

currency follows normal short business cycle of 5days work, and rest on 6th and 7th day, and then every month, and 365days, and new cycle will start again at the end of each year. I have full analysis on this.

the start of GBP/USD cycle for this year was established in January as up thread unless it breaks below 9150, better entry position is at 9390 for those taking long term view. Point to consolidat is at 2.1106,
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