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  • #2,381
  • Apr 14, 2008 6:56am Apr 14, 2008 6:56am
Good morning

retail sales up at 8:30 est will give direction to the gj i think

Right now daily pivot is overhead at 199.75 ish and support on 5 min is 199

I will be looking to go long on breakout 199.75 and sell under the 50 sma and support at 199
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,382
  • Apr 14, 2008 6:59am Apr 14, 2008 6:59am
Sup Malcolm,

Check out AJ
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,383
  • Apr 14, 2008 7:08am Apr 14, 2008 7:08am
Quoting malcolmb14
Good morning

retail sales up at 8:30 est will give direction to the gj i think

Right now daily pivot is overhead at 199.75 ish and support on 5 min is 199

I will be looking to go long on breakout 199.75 and sell under the 50 sma and support at 199
I agree. Looks like the retail sales will be down. The news services are stating that even the high end stores are not selling merchandise. Not so good when the folks with the big bucks are on the sidelines too. This could be a bad week for the dow and $. IMHO. That is Ok for me, I still have some shorts in 3 different prs. :
  • #2,384
  • Apr 14, 2008 7:12am Apr 14, 2008 7:12am
Quoting 13.1 Runner
I am confused. If S is @ 199.16 and R @ 199.75 ( per my chart/fib line, Why enter @ 199.65 long?? What am I missing. Im sure it is something.
I think what is confusing for you is why get long at 199.75, if you can get long at Support of 199.16.

what Malcolmb is trying to say is that, it is much less riskyt to wait for price to break R at 199.75.

What he wants to confirm is that price is going up above R.
If price has not broken R and is sitting on S, it has just as much of a chance to go down and beak S, as it is to go up and break R.

So the idea is too not get long or short until the move in that direction is confirmed, and confirmation would be breaking down below S or break above R along with other obvious technical indicators like RSI and 50SMA on 15Min being broken and then going 15 pips either direction before entering to confirm the price move.

But the idea is right and the principle is right. What we want to do is avoid getting long or short if we don't have confirmation that price is going to continue OUR way.

What I have found to be my best friend in forex is patience. IT is very hard to learn. But I assure you patience in forex will save youy more money than it will lose you.
  • #2,385
  • Apr 14, 2008 7:29am Apr 14, 2008 7:29am
Quoting rrram2
I think what is confusing for you is why get long at 199.75, if you can get long at Support of 199.16.

what Malcolmb is trying to say is that, it is much less riskyt to wait for price to break R at 199.75.

What he wants to confirm is that price is going up above R.
If price has not broken R and is sitting on S, it has just as much of a chance to go down and beak S, as it is to go up and break R.

So the idea is too not get long or short until the move in that direction is confirmed, and confirmation would be breaking down below S or break above R along with other obvious technical indicators like RSI and 50SMA on 15Min being broken and then going 15 pips either direction before entering to confirm the price move.

But the idea is right and the principle is right. What we want to do is avoid getting long or short if we don't have confirmation that price is going to continue OUR way.

What I have found to be my best friend in forex is patience. IT is very hard to learn. But I assure you patience in forex will save youy more money than it will lose you.
I was confused why Malcomb was thinking long @ 199.65.(per his post that he later explained) I was thinking short around 199. 65 if the 1hr candle did not breach the 199.75. The gj is still working on that 12 hrs later. If the retail news is bad it may not happen at all today either. IMHO
  • #2,386
  • Apr 14, 2008 7:31am Apr 14, 2008 7:31am
Up 2%??? So much for the news.lol
  • #2,387
  • Apr 14, 2008 7:35am Apr 14, 2008 7:35am
in real life, (stores closing, high gas prices, high food prices) how come all of the reports are so positive?
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #2,388
  • Apr 14, 2008 7:37am Apr 14, 2008 7:37am
Quoting tonyo524
in real life, (stores closing, high gas prices, high food prices) how come all of the reports are so positive?

Look inside the numbers, ex oil prices the numbers are flat.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,389
  • Apr 14, 2008 7:38am Apr 14, 2008 7:38am
The number being higher is artificial. "They" will claim it is up, but it is do to the increase, across the board, of prices. The actual sales volume will be down from last year, more than likely. It is a very inflationary number IMHO.
  • #2,390
  • Edited 7:50am Apr 14, 2008 7:39am | Edited 7:50am
Quoting tonyo524
in real life, (stores closing, high gas prices, high food prices) how come all of the reports are so positive?
The 0.2% includes auto and gas sales. If you remove the auto and fuel the numbers are flat. Higher fuel cost makes the overall retails sales seem up.

Auto was actually @ 0.1%
  • #2,391
  • Apr 14, 2008 7:44am Apr 14, 2008 7:44am
Quoting 13.1 Runner
The 0.2% includes auto and gas sales. If you remove the auto and fuel the numbers are flat. Higher fuel cost makes the overall retails sales seem up.
Oh, I see now. For some reason I was just thinking of food and department stores. Not looking at the whole pic. Thanks you guys, must be too early, or not enough sleep.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #2,392
  • Apr 14, 2008 7:55am Apr 14, 2008 7:55am
Quoting tonyo524
in real life, (stores closing, high gas prices, high food prices) how come all of the reports are so positive?
Because the media is full of of folks whose business it is to distort the truth.
ANd the government is full of liars who have been robbing us for almost a century AND you expect them to tell the truth?

Wait until the Social secuirty scam hits. They have robbed us since 1964
when that old commie Johnson merged the general fund and the social security fund. SOme of the deficits they talk about is the one where they have "borrowed" (STOLEN WITHOUT OUR CONSENT) our social security money that we woorked for and paid to them because we were ignorant and irresponsible and we needed some government to help us because we were too stupid to save for our retrement. This is one of the biggest lies of all time.

Huge sums of OUR money have been raided and wasted, from our social security EARNINGS. There isn't much left I guess. The Gov has been running this PONZI scheme for so long most people have died who got in, in the beggining.

I have a better why. Why do we keep voting for liars to serve us in public office? And why is the media full of liars and distorters as well?
It all comes down to greed and the desire to receive for oneself alone.
The greedy selfish man will die sad and unfullfilled.

Why can't they tell us the truth is perhaps a better question.
And the better question is, HOW can you tell the truth to someone who have been ripping off when they have NOT figured out yet that you are robbing them?
  • #2,393
  • Apr 14, 2008 7:57am Apr 14, 2008 7:57am
People don't want the truth.

McCain goes to Michigan, tells Auto Workers "your jobs aren't coming back, we need to find alternative solutions" they vote for Romney who tells them "We're going to bring jobs back to Michigan, in the auto industry" People are stupid.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,394
  • Apr 14, 2008 8:02am Apr 14, 2008 8:02am
Quoting DutchTrader
People don't want the truth.

McCain goes to Michigan, tells Auto Workers "your jobs aren't coming back, we need to find alternative solutions" they vote for Romney who tells them "We're going to bring jobs back to Michigan, in the auto industry" People are stupid.
People don't want the truth because perhaps they can't handle it, as anyone who is deceived and discovers the truth should DO something about it.

I think most people are lazy and don't want to have to do something about this lame Gov we have in the US. but those of us that prefer the turth should have access to it instead of all the lies.
Some of us CAN handle the truth!
  • #2,395
  • Apr 14, 2008 8:05am Apr 14, 2008 8:05am
SO,,, all that being said, will we see 199.12 retrace after the market opens. The spike above 199.75 was due to increase retail sales that are actually false? eh??
  • #2,396
  • Apr 14, 2008 8:20am Apr 14, 2008 8:20am
200.5 is the weekly pivot and 61.8% of last move down from 201.80 to 198.44

I am expecting a drop form this price level , but we will see what the market brings when it opens in 10 minutes
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,397
  • Apr 14, 2008 8:41am Apr 14, 2008 8:41am
199.62 sl 200.62 target 198.62 talk to you guys later.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #2,398
  • Apr 14, 2008 9:31am Apr 14, 2008 9:31am
Quoting malcolmb14
200.5 is the weekly pivot and 61.8% of last move down from 201.80 to 198.44

I am expecting a drop form this price level , but we will see what the market brings when it opens in 10 minutes
drop into 61`.8% of move 199.02 to 200.8 completed at 199.75 , alsoi was the daily pivot,

Now waiting for long above the open range high at 200.10
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,399
  • Apr 14, 2008 11:12am Apr 14, 2008 11:12am
Quoting malcolmb14
drop into 61`.8% of move 199.02 to 200.8 completed at 199.75 , alsoi was the daily pivot,

Now waiting for long above the open range high at 200.10

My math still works very well Malcolmb, thank you for introducing the power of RSI to me...
  • #2,400
  • Apr 14, 2008 11:21am Apr 14, 2008 11:21am
I'm short at 200 and will add shorts if she decides to "Moving on up...to the East side".
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