DislikedHi CJ,
Nice profit. Can you explain how you determine the trend for each pair? The key to success is the get the trend right at first place. Appreciate your input.Ignored
- #2,467
- Apr 11, 2008 11:36pm Apr 11, 2008 11:36pm
Trader101, is there a reason why you trade the pairs you trade?
my question is based on the fact that we got burned on the JPY pairs
.
So, i guess, having LESS pairs based on JPY could help the set.
Suggestions are welcome from everyone... on trying to find the perfect correlation of pairs that will keep the loose/win ratio (within a set of open trades) fully hedged.
my fear is this : if you take eurjpy, gbpjpy, and nzdjpy in the same direction, and that happens to be wrong, then the other pairs would really have to rack up some decent profits in order to just balance out the super-loss of the volatile yen pairs.
just my 2 cents... opinions welcome.
my question is based on the fact that we got burned on the JPY pairs
.So, i guess, having LESS pairs based on JPY could help the set.
Suggestions are welcome from everyone... on trying to find the perfect correlation of pairs that will keep the loose/win ratio (within a set of open trades) fully hedged.
my fear is this : if you take eurjpy, gbpjpy, and nzdjpy in the same direction, and that happens to be wrong, then the other pairs would really have to rack up some decent profits in order to just balance out the super-loss of the volatile yen pairs.
just my 2 cents... opinions welcome.
- #2,468
- Apr 12, 2008 12:08am Apr 12, 2008 12:08am
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2006 | 2,911 Posts
Trader101, is there a reason why you trade the pairs you trade?
my question is based on the fact that we got burned on the JPY pairs
So, i guess, having LESS pairs based on JPY could help the set.
Suggestions are welcome from everyone... on trying to find the perfect correlation of pairs that will keep the loose/win ratio (within a set of open trades) fully hedged.
my fear is this : if you take eurjpy, gbpjpy, and nzdjpy in the same direction, and that happens to be wrong, then the other pairs would really have to rack up some decent profits in order to just balance out the super-loss of the volatile yen pairs.
just my 2 cents... opinions welcome.
- #2,472
- Apr 12, 2008 2:46pm Apr 12, 2008 2:46pm
It's been good to get the perspectives from traders like CJ, Imbiber, and others. This thread is getting better all the time, and I've learned a lot, even in the past week. Looking forward to starting a new week of trading.
Let's all learn together and enjoy the ride.
and always remember the main subject of trader101's thread : keep it simple. no more than an indicator or 2 , and all in all simple support, resistance and pullback, then go with it and count your pips after u close.
- #2,473
- Apr 12, 2008 3:03pm Apr 12, 2008 3:03pm
Hansel, MXSurf, Goodness,
here's my first "tutorial" if you will, on how i determine the trend.
#1 first of all, i only use the daily, and if that's not too clear, the weekly.
(anything less than this, is just to get a SPECIFIC entry and not DIRECTION of the trend )
#2 i try to view levels of support and resistance with my own eyes, most of the times, these levels match perfectly with 21-EMA or 50-EMA which you see in my chart ( 21 is white, 50 is blue , 8 EMA yellow for short term trend )
In this example i've marked the specific entries i've would have taken with the stop just a bit above the EMA, after the daily bar closes.
remember the following formula SHOULD always be present :
#1 determine trend ( in this example is an OBVIOUS short all the way )
#2 wait ( on your favorite time frame ) for a rally IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION of the trend determined in step #1
#3 once this rally is over, and it starts on the way of the main trend again, just enter at the market price....with the stop above the high of that swing.
once this is done, just sit on your hands and hope that the trend determined in step #1 is the valid trend.
no indicators, no "tricks", good ol' support and resistance trading -- and of course the trader101 magic of pair selection.
good luck, hope this helps,
CJ.-
here's my first "tutorial" if you will, on how i determine the trend.
#1 first of all, i only use the daily, and if that's not too clear, the weekly.
(anything less than this, is just to get a SPECIFIC entry and not DIRECTION of the trend )
#2 i try to view levels of support and resistance with my own eyes, most of the times, these levels match perfectly with 21-EMA or 50-EMA which you see in my chart ( 21 is white, 50 is blue , 8 EMA yellow for short term trend )
In this example i've marked the specific entries i've would have taken with the stop just a bit above the EMA, after the daily bar closes.
remember the following formula SHOULD always be present :
#1 determine trend ( in this example is an OBVIOUS short all the way )
#2 wait ( on your favorite time frame ) for a rally IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION of the trend determined in step #1
#3 once this rally is over, and it starts on the way of the main trend again, just enter at the market price....with the stop above the high of that swing.
once this is done, just sit on your hands and hope that the trend determined in step #1 is the valid trend.
no indicators, no "tricks", good ol' support and resistance trading -- and of course the trader101 magic of pair selection.
good luck, hope this helps,
CJ.-
- #2,474
- Apr 12, 2008 3:21pm Apr 12, 2008 3:21pm
the second one of my tricks that i'll share with you guys, is right on my charts :
Charts of OIL, GOLD and Dollar INDEX.
OIL and GOLD are probably the most sought-after commodities on the planet.
their price movements, more often than not, affect the commodity dollars : CAD, NZD and AUD.
CAD usually follows OIL, the other 2 usually follow GOLD.
and GOLD most of the time goes opposite of the dollar index.
what does this mean ?
if GOLD rallies in the middle of the night....
short the dollar ( long euro, long aussie, long kiwi, short yen, short swiss , long cable, you get the idea )
if the dollar index rallies to a major resistance, short the dollar same way as above.
if the dollar sells of hard ( hopefully you make money on this ) to a previous support, go long the dollar ( short euro, short gbp, and so on ... )
if the dollar makes new lows (which is the case, nowadays ) , don't mess with it -- JUST GO WITH IT
hope this is helpful to some or all of u,
CJ.-
Charts of OIL, GOLD and Dollar INDEX.
OIL and GOLD are probably the most sought-after commodities on the planet.
their price movements, more often than not, affect the commodity dollars : CAD, NZD and AUD.
CAD usually follows OIL, the other 2 usually follow GOLD.
and GOLD most of the time goes opposite of the dollar index.
what does this mean ?
if GOLD rallies in the middle of the night....
short the dollar ( long euro, long aussie, long kiwi, short yen, short swiss , long cable, you get the idea )
if the dollar index rallies to a major resistance, short the dollar same way as above.
if the dollar sells of hard ( hopefully you make money on this ) to a previous support, go long the dollar ( short euro, short gbp, and so on ... )
if the dollar makes new lows (which is the case, nowadays ) , don't mess with it -- JUST GO WITH IT
hope this is helpful to some or all of u,
CJ.-
