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We're all saying the same thing

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 1:35pm Apr 12, 2008 12:14pm | Edited 1:35pm
We're all posting the same ideas over and over every few months

 

  1. PermanentJuan: "Don't trade the cross wait for confirmation" -> my own "MA w/ Jacko AH" thread
  2. How many moving average systems do we find? Lever's "Cornflower?" "Key to the mint?" "Vegas Tunnel" "Bunnygirl cross" etc....
  3. My "Martingale EA Almost can't lose" posts -> FXTradePro's "SemiMartinglae strategy"
  4. Should I even start talking about Finonacci? "BAT by Team Aphid"
  5. Countless hedging systems that explode. Where does it end????



It's the same wheel reinvented OVER AND OVER. In other words, we are all so desperate for a REAL advantage, that we wander the same circles.

My question is, IS THERE ACTUALLY AN EDGE OUT THERE? These systems posted above are a waste of time. They are gambling. There is no evidence that they will continue working.

  • #2
  • Apr 12, 2008 12:28pm Apr 12, 2008 12:28pm
The "key to the mint" system (imho) deserves more than being catagorised as "a waste of time", it is based on common sense, using the trend, using a proven chart pattern (123), and going with the flow of the market.

It is a well considered system with clear rules used and explained by a dedicated member of ff.

It is exactly the type of system that will carry on working as long as there are trends in the market. I don't think in any way it can be classed as gambling.

The "edge" as with all the best systems is going with the prevailing trend.
  • #3
  • Apr 12, 2008 12:33pm Apr 12, 2008 12:33pm
You're right. Something is missing. There are hundreds of systems, countless people coming on here saying that A+B=Money. If that were true, if ANY one of these systems worked the way everyone says they do, we'd all be millionaires.
I dont know how many traders on here are honestly successful, but all I see are a bunch of people going from thread to thread looking for answers. One trader makes a thread claiming he has a system that makes money. A few weeks later and the system has failed and now he and everyone is trying to add/change the system to make it work. A few weeks after taht no one cares, and there is a newer system on the board drawing everyone's attention...and the cycle continues.
I dont have answers, but whenever I see someone say "Pull up a chart and add this indicator, MA, or whatever" i pretty much move on. I just cant imagine a "big dog" or professional chasing 15min chart moves. I believe they think way bigger than that. Longer term trades with bigger profit potentials.

But whatever...somebody is making money out there.
All I ask for is a chance to prove that money cannot make me happy.
  • #4
  • Apr 12, 2008 6:07pm Apr 12, 2008 6:07pm
Actually I would imagine alot of these systems can work to get you into positive pips. Pick any of these systems with 10 traders and a few will make money and most will not. It is not the system that eventually makes a successful trader, it is the psychology of MM.
History is written by the victors.
  • #5
  • Apr 12, 2008 6:43pm Apr 12, 2008 6:43pm
Quoting tdion
We're all posting the same ideas over and over every few months

 

  1. PermanentJuan: "Don't trade the cross wait for confirmation" -> my own "MA w/ Jacko AH" thread
  2. How many moving average systems do we find? Lever's "Cornflower?" "Key to the mint?" "Vegas Tunnel" "Bunnygirl cross" etc....
  3. My "Martingale EA Almost can't lose" posts -> FXTradePro's "SemiMartinglae strategy"
  4. Should I even start talking about Finonacci? "BAT by Team Aphid"
  5. Countless hedging systems that explode. Where does it end????



It's the same wheel reinvented OVER AND OVER. In other words, we are all so desperate for a REAL advantage, that we wander the same circles.

My question is, IS THERE ACTUALLY AN EDGE OUT THERE? These systems posted above are a waste of time. They are gambling. There is no evidence that they will continue working.

I think the edge is price builds momentum, if one can exploit the price momentum with good money management you make money. This is where trend trading is profitable...... there is more to this momentum and price action than I can conceptualize at this time but it is starting to gel, sorry I can't be more enlightening at this time.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #6
  • Apr 12, 2008 6:54pm Apr 12, 2008 6:54pm
Quoting tdion
My question is, IS THERE ACTUALLY AN EDGE OUT THERE? These systems posted above are a waste of time. They are gambling. There is no evidence that they will continue working.
The edge is there. In your sentence.

1. Theres no evidence that they will continue working : true.
2. But we have ability to perceive and adapt into circumstances, you see? the edge is ourself.
  • #7
  • Apr 12, 2008 7:21pm Apr 12, 2008 7:21pm
Hey John, wouldn't you agree that trends can reverse without warning?

If so, you are never more certain than your last tic....

Quoting johnedoe
I think the edge is price builds momentum, if one can exploit the price momentum with good money management you make money. This is where trend trading is profitable...... there is more to this momentum and price action than I can conceptualize at this time but it is starting to gel, sorry I can't be more enlightening at this time.
  • #8
  • Apr 12, 2008 7:33pm Apr 12, 2008 7:33pm
I think any sensible trend following system will work provided the market is actually trending. When the market is not trending, do not trade a trend following system or else you will lose money. Part of being a good trend trader is figuring out when the market is not trending and staying out of the market - which is the case with how the markets have been so far in April.
  • #9
  • Apr 12, 2008 7:52pm Apr 12, 2008 7:52pm
ahh.. a thread of stressed out/pissed off traders. learning to trade will do that to you. i've been there.

i'm not an expert trader, if ever there was one, but i am consistent and profitable as of late. i only decided to respond to this thread because reading your frustrated posts i remember feeling exactly everything you mentioned.. doubting whether there is a system out there that works, etc.

let me help a bit. basically, any proposed strategy will more than likely work.. as long as you're consistent. yea, same bulls**t you've been hearing other people say. but its the truth.

Try this:

1. Pick your favorite system(even if you doubt its effectiveness, doesnt matter)
2. Write down the rules. dont leave room for any discretionary decisions. your actions(entry, exit, etc) should be rule-based.
3. Pick a currency pair(or a few, whatever)
4. Execute that system EXACTLY as laid out in your rules, stick to your money management. it may be hard to do.. but realize your failure is a lack of following the rules CONSISTENLY.

Evaluate your results. I'm sure you'll be happy with it. The system doesn't matter.

As an example, here's what I do for my basic strategy(i employ a few strategies, but this is one of the big hitters, trend following)

Strategy 1(no fancy name):

Setup:
50 SMA
Stochastics(14,3,3)

Entry:
When MA is sloping up(aka price is in an uptrend), go Long when stochastics are below 20 and cross upward.
When MA is sloping down(aka price is in a downtrend), go Short when stochastics are above 80 and cross downward.
When MA is flat, you can take both Long and Short signals, or neither.

StopLoss:
If going Long, place stop 5-10 pips below last swing low.
If going Short, place stop 5-10 pips above last swing high.

Profit:
Take out half position at 1 to 1 risk reward.
Take out half position at 1 to 2 risk reward.
(i.e. if stoploss = 30pips, take out half position at +30, take second half out at +60)
____

Do I call this the "nick likes pips strategy 10000", hell no. i learned this in an EMAIL lol.
Its dumbfoundedly simple. Are there better strategies out there? More than likely.
But it's not the perfect strategy you need. It's perfect consistency.

Thats it. Now you may read this and say "well if i change this setting.. or do this differently.. blah blah blah". Do what you'd like. Or just pick an y other strategy you know and/or like. The point is, pick ONE STRATEGY and stick to it.

the point im stressing is ANY system will more than likely work if you stick to it consistently. Losses will happen. its inevitable. But with a good system and proper money management, you'll end the month profitably.

Once you realize this, that you can take any system, and make it work as long as you consistenly pull the trigger when you're supposed to... you'll find success.

Goodluck!
- nick andre -
  • #10
  • Apr 12, 2008 8:00pm Apr 12, 2008 8:00pm
LOL, thanks for the kind thoughts.

The point of the thread is not to complain.... it is to beg the question: what is the reason your system works? We are looking for evidence that trades taken will end up positive.

I have been around the block enough times to know a few things....

1) Central bankers move markets based on economic reports, which are unpredictable (hence future price is unpredictable)

2) There is no scientific evidence that fibonacci retracements, elliott waves, and moving average systems are successful based on anything other than luck.

So the new thread I posted ("Market Inefficiences Thread") is dedicated to talking about real world reason to enter trades, not stupid technical analysis. Consider me the high school science teacher, conducting an experiment that identifies the cause/effect of price movement.
  • #11
  • Apr 12, 2008 9:23pm Apr 12, 2008 9:23pm
Quoting tdion
LOL, thanks for the kind thoughts.

The point of the thread is not to complain.... it is to beg the question: what is the reason your system works? We are looking for evidence that trades taken will end up positive.

I have been around the block enough times to know a few things....

1) Central bankers move markets based on economic reports, which are unpredictable (hence future price is unpredictable)

2) There is no scientific evidence that fibonacci retracements, elliott waves, and moving average systems are successful based on anything other than luck.

So the new thread I posted ("Market Inefficiences Thread") is dedicated to talking about real world reason to enter trades, not stupid technical analysis. Consider me the high school science teacher, conducting an experiment that identifies the cause/effect of price movement.
Markets are also moved by fear and greed based on chart patterns and price action, which gives some technical analysis validity.
  • #12
  • Edited Oct 15, 2008 9:14pm Apr 12, 2008 10:37pm | Edited Oct 15, 2008 9:14pm
Quoting tdion
Hey John, wouldn't you agree that trends can reverse without warning?

If so, you are never more certain than your last tic....
There are usually a series of minor reversals in any trend and this is where money management comes into play, to protect your profits during those corrections, aka profit taking.
Take the EUR/USD now, it has been on a six year up trend on the monthly chart, and a strong 2 year trend on the weekly chart with corrections that a short period MA shows clearly, it is now just a matter of time before the this trend reverses and the USD will gain strength again.
I guess the premise for this is that all things in life and the universe are cyclical.
Now I don't subscribe to elliot wave theory but I suppose it works for some people, it just seems a little too complex for me.
I will continue to watch price action and the formation of trends and price momentum.
Thanks for starting this thread tdion, it is making me give thought to the momentum of price action and improved money management.
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Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #13
  • Apr 13, 2008 5:10am Apr 13, 2008 5:10am
Quoting tdion
We're all posting the same ideas over and over every few months

 

  1. PermanentJuan: "Don't trade the cross wait for confirmation" -> my own "MA w/ Jacko AH" thread
  2. How many moving average systems do we find? Lever's "Cornflower?" "Key to the mint?" "Vegas Tunnel" "Bunnygirl cross" etc....
  3. My "Martingale EA Almost can't lose" posts -> FXTradePro's "SemiMartinglae strategy"
  4. Should I even start talking about Finonacci? "BAT by Team Aphid"
  5. Countless hedging systems that explode. Where does it end????



It's the same wheel reinvented OVER AND OVER. In other words, we are all so desperate for a REAL advantage, that we wander the same circles.

My question is, IS THERE ACTUALLY AN EDGE OUT THERE? These systems posted above are a waste of time. They are gambling. There is no evidence that they will continue working.

tdion r u also active in other forum? thought i read your name somewhere
I agree 100% system presented in the internet is just BS including those for sale, none of them works long term. Now I only check ff for refreshing, sharing general ideas and news checking.

the best trading sense in ff is coming from brijon on his thread "rollover" try to catch the basic idea and trade based on it. however don't expect to get a mechanical system there, since even after 2-3 months they still can't decide on when to enter the market.

that I think is the general mistake we make, we are missfocused. most traders are too focus on finding the best system but forget to learn the basic idea of trading
  • #14
  • Apr 13, 2008 7:04am Apr 13, 2008 7:04am
The biggest secret in trading, the biggest edge is not a secret at all, it's right in front of you, as you open the forexfactory front page, and i've said it before. News move the market and create plenty of opportunities month after month. And it's not just the scheduled macro data. Just this friday GE came out with worse than expected earnings and this allowed me to make 200 (almost) risk-free pips on GY. You just have to keep your ear to the ground and focus on what market is focusing on. Check the pulse of the market sentiment. simple, it workes and it has always worked. One of the most infamous exaples of news trading would be when Rothschild found out that Napoleon lost the battle of waterloo, come to the LSE with a grim face, and started selling his shares. Maket hit rock bottom the same day, and that's when he started buying back. If only it was that easy.. hehehe
  • #15
  • Apr 13, 2008 7:14am Apr 13, 2008 7:14am
It is possible the 'edge' may not be what so many think it is. George Soros in his book, The Alchemy of Finance, says in the introduction:

Quote
I had a certain advantage over other investors because at least I
had an idea about the way financial markets operate.
....
I did not play the financial markets according to a particular set
of rules; I was always more interested in understanding the
changes that occur in the rules of the game.
In the Preface to the 2nd Edition he states:
Quote
In The Alchemy of Finance, I put forward the theory of reflexivity
as if it were relevant at all times. That is true in the sense that the
two-way feedback mechanism that is the hallmark of reflexivity
can come into play at any time, but it is not true in the sense that
it is at play at all times. In fact, in most situations it is so feeble
that it can be safely ignored. We may distinguish between near equilibrium
conditions where certain corrective mechanisms prevent
perceptions and reality from drifting too far apart, and
far-from-equilibrium conditions where a reflexive double-feedback
mechanism is at work and there is no tendency for perceptions and
reality to come close together without a significant change in the
prevailing conditions, a change of regime. In the first case, classical
economic theory applies and the divergence between perceptions
and reality can be ignored as mere noise. In the second case, the
theory. of equilibrium becomes irrelevant and we are confronted
with a one-directional historical process where changes in both
perceptions and reality are irreversible. It is important to distin-
guish between these two different states of affairs because what is
normal in one is abnormal in the other.
Soros formulated a theory on how the markets worked, that is his self admitted 'Edge". The book is a good read.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #16
  • Apr 13, 2008 8:00am Apr 13, 2008 8:00am
Quoting tdion
We're all posting the same ideas over and over every few months

 

  1. PermanentJuan: "Don't trade the cross wait for confirmation" -> my own "MA w/ Jacko AH" thread
  2. How many moving average systems do we find? Lever's "Cornflower?" "Key to the mint?" "Vegas Tunnel" "Bunnygirl cross" etc....
  3. My "Martingale EA Almost can't lose" posts -> FXTradePro's "SemiMartinglae strategy"
  4. Should I even start talking about Finonacci? "BAT by Team Aphid"
  5. Countless hedging systems that explode. Where does it end????


It's the same wheel reinvented OVER AND OVER. In other words, we are all so desperate for a REAL advantage, that we wander the same circles.

My question is, IS THERE ACTUALLY AN EDGE OUT THERE? These systems posted above are a waste of time. They are gambling. There is no evidence that they will continue working.

Yes there are system which works,
Around december 2006 i had posted one simple system where i had combine SMA of different Time frames on single TF. system is well working at this movement also. Simple key is.. look at What is happening at different Time frames. PM me if you want to understand or chat with me... my yahoo id is 'ramdas_fx'..... i will discuss setup with only experiance traders, since system requires price and pattern sense.

Another good system i have seen is from Brijon..... "rollover related thread"
it is also good thread i keep reading that thread and takes buy or sell decission based on my system.
  • #17
  • Apr 13, 2008 8:22am Apr 13, 2008 8:22am
Quoting ramdas
Yes there are system which works,
Around december 2006 i had posted one simple system where i had combine SMA of different Time frames on single TF. system is well working at this movement also. Simple key is.. look at What is happening at different Time frames. PM me if you want to understand or chat with me... my yahoo id is 'ramdas_fx'..... i will discuss setup with only experiance traders, since system requires price and pattern sense.

Another good system i have seen is from Brijon..... "rollover related thread"
it is also good thread i keep reading that thread and takes buy or sell decission based on my system.
hmm you must have been a silent reader at Brian's thread
  • #18
  • Apr 14, 2008 8:01am Apr 14, 2008 8:01am
Quoting Nick_likes_pips
ahh.. a thread of stressed out/pissed off traders. learning to trade will do that to you. i've been there.

i'm not an expert trader, if ever there was one, but i am consistent and profitable as of late. i only decided to respond to this thread because reading your frustrated posts i remember feeling exactly everything you mentioned.. doubting whether there is a system out there that works, etc.

let me help a bit. basically, any proposed strategy will more than likely work.. as long as you're consistent. yea, same bulls**t you've been hearing other people say. but its the truth.

Try this:

1. Pick your favorite system(even if you doubt its effectiveness, doesnt matter)
2. Write down the rules. dont leave room for any discretionary decisions. your actions(entry, exit, etc) should be rule-based.
3. Pick a currency pair(or a few, whatever)
4. Execute that system EXACTLY as laid out in your rules, stick to your money management. it may be hard to do.. but realize your failure is a lack of following the rules CONSISTENLY.

Evaluate your results. I'm sure you'll be happy with it. The system doesn't matter.

As an example, here's what I do for my basic strategy(i employ a few strategies, but this is one of the big hitters, trend following)

Strategy 1(no fancy name):

Setup:
50 SMA
Stochastics(14,3,3)

Entry:
When MA is sloping up(aka price is in an uptrend), go Long when stochastics are below 20 and cross upward.
When MA is sloping down(aka price is in a downtrend), go Short when stochastics are above 80 and cross downward.
When MA is flat, you can take both Long and Short signals, or neither.

StopLoss:
If going Long, place stop 5-10 pips below last swing low.
If going Short, place stop 5-10 pips above last swing high.

Profit:
Take out half position at 1 to 1 risk reward.
Take out half position at 1 to 2 risk reward.
(i.e. if stoploss = 30pips, take out half position at +30, take second half out at +60)
____

Do I call this the "nick likes pips strategy 10000", hell no. i learned this in an EMAIL lol.
Its dumbfoundedly simple. Are there better strategies out there? More than likely.
But it's not the perfect strategy you need. It's perfect consistency.

Thats it. Now you may read this and say "well if i change this setting.. or do this differently.. blah blah blah". Do what you'd like. Or just pick an y other strategy you know and/or like. The point is, pick ONE STRATEGY and stick to it.

the point im stressing is ANY system will more than likely work if you stick to it consistently. Losses will happen. its inevitable. But with a good system and proper money management, you'll end the month profitably.

Once you realize this, that you can take any system, and make it work as long as you consistenly pull the trigger when you're supposed to... you'll find success.

Goodluck!

Thx for this one.
I try it from some days and it's very simple to follow.
I feel my trading becomes more easy now.. just stick to the rules.. hehe, you're right, it's the most difficult thing to do !

do you have a prefered timeframe ?
gold is gold.
  • #19
  • Apr 14, 2008 9:18am Apr 14, 2008 9:18am
Quoting Gift_Art
hmm you must have been a silent reader at Brian's thread
and an expert in decyphering!
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #20
  • Apr 15, 2008 8:18am Apr 15, 2008 8:18am
Quoting soultrader
and an expert in decyphering!
haha...

it was a lot of guesswork indeed but the end result was satisfying
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