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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #72,961
  • Apr 11, 2008 5:20pm Apr 11, 2008 5:20pm
Got up this AM with the computer running ready to go and I heard the lady on Bloomberg say GE disappointing... and immediately hit the sell button right at the top of the big drop. Couldn't believe I got the news at the same time as the market. Barely had time to cancel out the auto TP setting and reset.
Nice surprise this evening.
History is written by the victors.
  • #72,962
  • Apr 11, 2008 6:10pm Apr 11, 2008 6:10pm
GBP/JPY fell from 213.46 (27 Feb high) to reach 192.52 on 17 Mar. A reversal structure formed and 205.11 was reached on 04 Apr. A top then formed and the mkt slipped lower, breaking the corrective trendline off 192.52 to reach 198.05 on 10 Apr. A strong bounce followed and a lower top is now in place at 201.90. This caps for a fresh test on 198.10, guards 196.85.

GBP/USD breached key suppt at 1.9722-35 Tues, neck-line of 5-week head & shldrs top, after leaving a lower top at 2.0050 last Fri, below 27 Mar lower top at 2.0193. Losses reached 1.9650 on Weds ahead of Thur's recov to 1.9845. Subsequent dip below Wed's 1.9722 higher low has weakened the immed outlook, warning of a return to 1.9650, with a min'm extn to 1.9585-1.9610 on a break.

Just an info and not a reco! Happy weekend!
  • #72,963
  • Apr 11, 2008 9:38pm Apr 11, 2008 9:38pm
Quoting Dmac
Make this same mistake over and over again. Don't understand what happened to me. Traded a year in profit and now all of a sudden I'm like a newbie again. Too greedy. Hade already made money earlier. Ended up giving back todat and yesterdays profit that was very big. Maybe I got burnt out over the past year. Don't seem to have that control anymore. Maybe I can't do it. They say you find out who you are by trading. Maybe I mentally don't have what it takes. Over traded again and lost 30% of account. That's the second time in a month I've done that. Any advice on how to get my head straight again. Tried stayin away for a week but here I am makin the same stupid mistakes .HELP HELP HELP PLEASE. FEEL LIKE I'M DROWNING MYSELF.
AT THIS RATE MY ACCOUNT WILL BE BLOWN UP IN NO TIME.

FAILING TO PLANE IS PLANNING TO FAIL

This is what I am using:

Everyday before I start trading I fill the Forms, and write down how much PIPS, and how much money I am going to DO today. Then I start.

Keep your journal for every trade on papers (forms) every day all week. After the trading week you can collect all the forms, and put them in folders, and analyze the trades. You can see where your Weak Points are: in your trading system, MM, Mainset.

Here is an example of the form I am using, you can download, and add new columns, (if you can took the images of your charts durring your entries and save them on disk, that's fine, just write down the image file). Analyze over the weeekends, Saturday, Sunday, make a new plan, Project your Goals, for next week, month. Keep it simple, but DO it every Day, every TRADE....(no excuses) Do it for 30 Days, you can see your improvements.

http://www.doske.com/fx/fxjournal.zip



http://www.doske.com/fx/fxjournal.png
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip fxjournal.zip   2 KB | 383 downloads
  • #72,964
  • Edited Apr 12, 2008 5:45am Apr 11, 2008 9:54pm | Edited Apr 12, 2008 5:45am
Quoting mike w
You are a winner, and the only time you fail is when you ...
You are a winner, and the only time you fail is when you QUIT!

MUST READ:
Mental fitness for Traders http://www.mediafire.com/download.php?7ggxoi9xguz
  • #72,965
  • Apr 12, 2008 4:00am Apr 12, 2008 4:00am
hi karmo
where r u bro???
  • #72,966
  • Apr 12, 2008 9:14am Apr 12, 2008 9:14am
why do you think G/J guards 196.85? Thanks!

Quoting 4x_Trader
GBP/JPY fell from 213.46 (27 Feb high) to reach 192.52 on 17 Mar. A reversal structure formed and 205.11 was reached on 04 Apr. A top then formed and the mkt slipped lower, breaking the corrective trendline off 192.52 to reach 198.05 on 10 Apr. A strong bounce followed and a lower top is now in place at 201.90. This caps for a fresh test on 198.10, guards 196.85.

GBP/USD breached key suppt at 1.9722-35 Tues, neck-line of 5-week head & shldrs top, after leaving a lower top at 2.0050 last Fri, below 27 Mar lower top at 2.0193. Losses reached 1.9650 on Weds ahead of Thur's recov to 1.9845. Subsequent dip below Wed's 1.9722 higher low has weakened the immed outlook, warning of a return to 1.9650, with a min'm extn to 1.9585-1.9610 on a break.

Just an info and not a reco! Happy weekend!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #72,967
  • Apr 12, 2008 9:57am Apr 12, 2008 9:57am
Quoting Jerry
im not sure that we will go below 199 tomorrow/on next week

In this volatile time you always have to be on the defence during earnings season. .. you seemed to think GJ not under 199 and here we are at 198.5 on defence.

The only reason the GJ went down like a rock was because of the GE earnings.

This and the consumer confidence being the lowest since 1991 will likely send the dj -30 down 500 - 800 points next week. We did not even see a short covering bounce on Friday on dj-30 , which indicates to me more carnage next week.

No earnings are going to be great , other then Wal-Mart , which has passed.

Last earnings season the markets also ripped up on Wal-Marts earnings. They are getting better and better due to the fact that shoppers are moving from the more expensive shops to the bargain stores like Wal-Mart where their dollar stretches further.

As for this week either the gj will just crash thru the double bottom support at 198 and test 197 or lower , or the more likely scenario as we rarely move staright down with out some form of retrace , a retrace to middle of the channel and 50% fib of the last move down to 200 zone and then down from thereto 197 but more likely 192 test.

On a 4 hour the move form March 16th to Now has been a month long bear flag and we were 60 pips shy of testing the 61.8% fib retracement of the move down from 213.86 to 192.82. Now if in fact this is a bear flag and it plays out the flag pole was 2000 pips long. This would take us down into that monthly support line of 175 of the next few weeks.

Overall I am still very bearish on the US Markets and am heavily invested in DXD (pro shares dj ultrashort .. it goes up when dj-30 goes down)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #72,968
  • Apr 12, 2008 10:05am Apr 12, 2008 10:05am
Malcolm,

Great analysis. I also like the fact we closed below 199.00 that indicates more bearish sentiment building imvho.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #72,969
  • Apr 12, 2008 10:54am Apr 12, 2008 10:54am
Here is my analysis.

Attached Image
  • #72,970
  • Apr 12, 2008 10:55am Apr 12, 2008 10:55am
Quoting markam
Here is my analysis.

Attachment
Classic. I had to chuckle when I read the WSJ claim that the G-7 Communique was "strong". Yeah,everyone's gonna go buy USD. Right.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #72,971
  • Apr 12, 2008 11:20am Apr 12, 2008 11:20am
Quoting markam
Here is my analysis.

Attachment
very good
  • #72,972
  • Apr 12, 2008 11:31am Apr 12, 2008 11:31am
Very highly effective trading tool.

100% accuracy

Make your millions

http://www.imagi-nation.com/moonstruck/question.html
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #72,973
  • Apr 12, 2008 11:41am Apr 12, 2008 11:41am
keep still , now the market is closed
allow bulls have restful sleep awhile
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #72,974
  • Apr 12, 2008 12:30pm Apr 12, 2008 12:30pm
Ok, the markets are closed now.
But I've just asked www.imagi-nation.com/moonstruck/question.html about the GBP and my lotto numbers with two simple questions:
a)Pound up next week? What was the answer: Ask again later.
b)my Lotto Winning Numbers next week? And the answer: Not likely.
(Well, I believe the last answer).

Happy Weekend all.
  • #72,975
  • Apr 12, 2008 12:50pm Apr 12, 2008 12:50pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Very highly effective trading tool.

100% accuracy

Make your millions

http://www.imagi-nation.com/moonstruck/question.html
Great tool M, I don't need to trade no more. I'm gonna win the lotto!
  • #72,976
  • Apr 12, 2008 5:11pm Apr 12, 2008 5:11pm
Quoting markam
Here is my analysis.

Attachment
Indeed the perfect storm is brewing, he he...
  • #72,977
  • Apr 12, 2008 7:12pm Apr 12, 2008 7:12pm
Hi, I am a newbie here and would like to ask the more experienced of you: What do you think about the effect of the G7 meeting on the geppy? Link to a related article: http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/080410/120...7818.html?.v=1
  • #72,978
  • Apr 12, 2008 7:58pm Apr 12, 2008 7:58pm
Quoting wernerino
Hi, I am a newbie here and would like to ask the more experienced of you: What do you think about the effect of the G7 meeting on the geppy? Link to a related article: http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/080410/120...7818.html?.v=1

try asking


http://www.imagi-nation.com/moonstruck/question.html

Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #72,979
  • Apr 12, 2008 8:05pm Apr 12, 2008 8:05pm
Quoting wernerino
Hi, I am a newbie here and would like to ask the more experienced of you: What do you think about the effect of the G7 meeting on the geppy? Link to a related article: http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/080410/120...7818.html?.v=1

The G7 meeting may have rumblings of stopping the weakness of the USD.

If the markets drop as they look like they might over the next week USD will get stronger. Money will be moved from the equity markets into treasury bonds, thus the strengthening of the USD.

The G7 may put pressure on the feds , who knows , to stop cutting rates. The feds only have one or two more rate cuts they can really do as inflation is now a concern and is only going to get worse. The next 2 quarters this year are going to be very interesting , and then I wonder what is really going to happen after the elections in November with the eur at all times high against the usd.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #72,980
  • Apr 12, 2008 8:30pm Apr 12, 2008 8:30pm
With 5 million views of this thread, is anybody turning profit? Geeeez....
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