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  • #2,281
  • Apr 9, 2008 11:14pm Apr 9, 2008 11:14pm
Leighswww,

Do you have any updates on FTI? Its kinda worrying. Almost 3weeks already. Is he on holiday? If you need help to source him out, i'll be happy to try.

I will bring you back to the monk story. LOL.

But seriously, is he doing okay? If you have the slightest idea, pls let us know too.

regards,
jest
  • #2,282
  • Apr 10, 2008 12:07am Apr 10, 2008 12:07am
Quoting Jairo
Cool!! Exactly the way I trade!!... Hmm, the red heads, I mean...

This is a good example of how one soldier (without rescue troops) would have to fight to survive in the FX battle. One epic battle.

BabeFX.

If your'e not in you can't win.
  • #2,283
  • Edited 11:41am Apr 10, 2008 12:10am | Edited 11:41am
Hi, Zoran,

I agree with Jairo, that, if your overnight position is small and you won't be away from the market a long time. Not bother with stops. If you think by PA or any reason that you don't need to hold any more, just close the overnight postion, assuming that, you don't have trigger problem.

In this case the stop/loss will be far away from the price you close. In such case, it is no harm to place such S/L. What annoying me is, a lot of times when I closed short term positions I accidently also closed the carried-on positions which suppose to endure higher volatility but seeking higher reward.


Hi, jest,

I am also waiting Leighw for news about fti. Really concerned about him.

David


P.S. I wanted to post two charts to indicate possilbe danger of rescue operations. One is yesterday's E/U(from GMT 5), the other is Tuesday G/U chart.

Both situations illustrate a "dead in water" senario, I think. I am really working on this and try to find any solutions. Extreme situations can even cause great traders like Jesse Livermore also "dead in water".
  • #2,284
  • Apr 10, 2008 4:27am Apr 10, 2008 4:27am
Jairo and David

Thank you for your comments and that is my understanding. I was just thinking of placing a stop to protect overnight positions but that has now been cleared up. One is not needed.
  • #2,285
  • Apr 10, 2008 5:06am Apr 10, 2008 5:06am
Quoting Zoran
Jairo and David

Thank you for your comments and that is my understanding. I was just thinking of placing a stop to protect overnight positions but that has now been cleared up. One is not needed.
may i suggest a scenario. Has everyone forgot the asian financial crisis?

okay lets say u did well to make 200 pips on intraday. short on the EURO. So u bail out and leave one small mini lot (scout), go to sleep. Then suddenly u got a case of the Black Swan. USD faced a 400pip move down while you are still soundly asleep thinking that there is NO WAY market can move against you in that manner.

Remember that you are not actively managing ur position here. Its like leaving a your treasure box opened for pillaging. My suggestion is to still put one...put it far far away if need be, just in case. Preservation of capital, lose profits, still okay, lose profits which eats into capital while sleeping?

just a food for thought.
  • #2,286
  • Edited 1:04pm Apr 10, 2008 6:36am | Edited 1:04pm
If you are leaving your position open overnight, then surely you are taking a longer term view of where the underlying is headed.

I would suggest placing your stop below the low of 3rd daily candle & possibley 50% down the 4th daily candle. Another way to look at it would be to take the daily average range & multiply by 2.5 . So if the average range was 130 x 2.5 = 325 would be your stop, but even this isn't guaranteed to get you away & safe from the volatility .


BabeFX.

If your'e not in you can't win.
  • #2,287
  • Apr 10, 2008 7:46am Apr 10, 2008 7:46am
Hi jest and BabeFX,

I think the point at which you are thinking to place your stops may be excellent entries... With 0.0x lots in an xK standard 100:1 account, NFP release volatility is a breeze... About asian crisis and alike (my debut in the markets ), those can change the trend you are following, but you don't need to be stopped out. Close, reverse, but at your own discretion, based on PA. Stops usually are caught in the worst possible position.
  • #2,288
  • Apr 10, 2008 7:48am Apr 10, 2008 7:48am
Quoting Green_David
Hi, Zoran, I agree with Jairo, that, if your overnight position is small and you won't be away from the market a long time. Not bother with stops. If you think by PA or any reason that you don't need to hold any more, just close the overnight postion, assuming that, you don't have trigger problem. In this case the stop/loss will be far away from the price you close. In such case, it is no harm to place such S/L. What annoying me is, a lot of times when I closed short term positions I accidently also closed the carried-on positions which suppose to endure higher volatility but seeking higher reward. Hi, jest, I am also waiting Leighw for news about fti. Really concerned about him. David P.S. I wanted to post two charts to indicate possilbe danger of rescue operations. One is yesterday's E/U(from GMT 5), the other is Tuesday G/U chart. The internet connections with overseas are very bad. Both situations illustrate a "dead in water" senario, I think. I am really working on this and try to find any solutions. Extreme situations can even cause great traders like Jesse Livermore also "dead in water".
Hi David,

I am very curious about the dead in the waters scenario you mentioned.
  • #2,289
  • Edited 12:39pm Apr 10, 2008 12:28pm | Edited 12:39pm
Quoting Jairo
Hi David,

I am very curious about the dead in the waters scenario you mentioned.
Well, I don't know why daytime connection to overseas are so bad.

What I want to say, is, the dancing with market can very easily lead us to a trap

Ok, look at the yester E/U 15 minutes chart. If you had short positions stuck with -50 pips before 14:00 pm(S'pore and Beijing time), from 14:00 tp 20:00pm, the market give us some opportunity to rescue. But the range is 30 pips, so it is difficult but possible to rescue, if you stuck with -50 pips. However you need at least 5 troops to rescue 1 troop with -50 pips. Since the range is only 30pips, if you can make 10 pips out this narrow range, you are a good dancer already.

So where to open short position? Maybe assuming 1.5730 is resistance, and if you get out very fast, and you have enough troops to rescue, fine. If short again, or rescue not finished if not enought troops, after E/U break out 1.5740, so what price you will guess to be the resitance? 1.5770, 1.5800?, if you did that and short again, your troops would be traped again and again, since from 1.5740 to 1.5860, there is no any retracement more than 20 pips, considering spread cost, price slipage and we are not capable of selling the highest and buying the lowest.

And for the day April 8, G/U, it dropped 250 pips. During that drop there is only one rebounce about 50 pips and that is very difficult to catch. Rescue a troop with -250 pips loss, well, I don't know.

So, I agree with you, more focus are put on rescue, rather than attack. I am still trying to refine rescue. Remember fti also said rescue if failed more than 3 times, it could lead to a disaster.

So some cases, rescue could potentially lead us trying to catch the falling knifes, if our size out of control, surely it is "dead in water" senerio.

And other problem, last time you danced Waltz with market very nicely, but next time the lady market danced tengo, but you did not know and it is impossible to know from the begining, if you are so smart, you began to know in the middle, maybe it is too late. And, the third time, when you wondering tengo or waltz this time, it turned out the Lady market danced disco!

Need to balace out and nimble as fti said.

David
  • #2,290
  • Edited Apr 11, 2008 4:24am Apr 10, 2008 1:25pm | Edited Apr 11, 2008 4:24am
Quoting Green_David
Well, I don't know why daytime connection to overseas are so bad.

What I want to say, is, the dancing with market can very easily lead us to a trap

Ok, look at the yester E/U 15 minutes chart. If you had short positions stuck with -50 pips before 14:00 pm(S'pore and Beijing time), from 14:00 tp 20:00pm, the market give us some opportunity to rescue. But the range is 30 pips, so it is difficult but possible to rescue, if you stuck with -50 pips. However you need at least 5 troops to rescue 1 troop with -50 pips. Since the range is only 30pips, if you can make 10 pips out this narrow range, you are a good dancer already.

So where to open short position? Maybe assuming 1.5730 is resistance, and if you get out very fast, and you have enough troops to rescue, fine. If short again, or rescue not finished if not enought troops, after E/U break out 1.5740, so what price you will guess to be the resitance? 1.5770, 1.5800?, if you did that and short again, your troops would be traped again and again, since from 1.5740 to 1.5860, there is no any retracement more than 20 pips, considering spread cost, price slipage and we are not capable of selling the highest and buying the lowest.

And for the day April 8, G/U, it dropped 250 pips. During that drop there is only one rebounce about 50 pips and that is very difficult to catch. Rescue a troop with -250 pips loss, well, I don't know.

So, I agree with you, more focus are put on rescue, rather than attack. I am still trying to refine rescue. Remember fti also said rescue if failed more than 3 times, it could lead to a disaster.

So some cases, rescue could potentially lead us trying to catch the falling knifes, if our size out of control, surely it is "dead in water" senerio.

And other problem, last time you danced Waltz with market very nicely, but next time the lady market danced tengo, but you did not know and it is impossible to know from the begining, if you are so smart, you began to know in the middle, maybe it is too late. And, the third time, when you wondering tengo or waltz this time, it turned out the Lady market danced disco!

Need to balace out and nimble as fti said.

David

David.

IF I was faced with a similar scenario in relation to low volatility & small 30 pip range I would consider the following.

1. Assuming I was trading in line with the Daily trend I wouldn't add I would consider riding it out into the next session.

2. Leave the trade open & find another pair with more volatiity and open a rescue positions to attempt a break even.

3. Consider bailing out.

I must admit I haven't had reason to use option 1 or 2 recently.

I have however, bailed out. Last night I was trading E/U long ( I had my trading platform minimise) I went to add to a position & due to my poor eye sight I opened G/EUR long by mistake I realised something was wrong when my open trade balance was in the red instead black, I managed to bail out with a 7 pip loss. Another lesson learnt ( get a new pair of glasses).



Regards,


BabeFX.


To fail is forgivable, but to fail to try is not.
  • #2,291
  • Apr 10, 2008 1:43pm Apr 10, 2008 1:43pm
Quoting Green_David
Well, I don't know why daytime connection to overseas are so bad.

What I want to say, is, the dancing with market can very easily lead us to a trap

Ok, look at the yester E/U 15 minutes chart. If you had short positions stuck with -50 pips before 14:00 pm(S'pore and Beijing time), from 14:00 tp 20:00pm, the market give us some opportunity to rescue. But the range is 30 pips, so it is difficult but possible to rescue, if you stuck with -50 pips. However you need at least 5 troops to rescue 1 troop with -50 pips. Since the range is only 30pips, if you can make 10 pips out this narrow range, you are a good dancer already.

So where to open short position? Maybe assuming 1.5730 is resistance, and if you get out very fast, and you have enough troops to rescue, fine. If short again, or rescue not finished if not enought troops, after E/U break out 1.5740, so what price you will guess to be the resitance? 1.5770, 1.5800?, if you did that and short again, your troops would be traped again and again, since from 1.5740 to 1.5860, there is no any retracement more than 20 pips, considering spread cost, price slipage and we are not capable of selling the highest and buying the lowest.

And for the day April 8, G/U, it dropped 250 pips. During that drop there is only one rebounce about 50 pips and that is very difficult to catch. Rescue a troop with -250 pips loss, well, I don't know.

So, I agree with you, more focus are put on rescue, rather than attack. I am still trying to refine rescue. Remember fti also said rescue if failed more than 3 times, it could lead to a disaster.

So some cases, rescue could potentially lead us trying to catch the falling knifes, if our size out of control, surely it is "dead in water" senerio.

And other problem, last time you danced Waltz with market very nicely, but next time the lady market danced tengo, but you did not know and it is impossible to know from the begining, if you are so smart, you began to know in the middle, maybe it is too late. And, the third time, when you wondering tengo or waltz this time, it turned out the Lady market danced disco!

Need to balace out and nimble as fti said.

David
Hi David,

About eurusd (the only pair I am following at this moment), my point of view is: looking at 15M yesterday... as you suggest... I will check the main trend ---> up. The intermediate trend ---> up. Then I will NOT short eurusd at all. Even the shortest trades I may think of will be long. Long or out. Don't know if this helps and if suits fti style, but I think it is safer. Good trading.
  • #2,292
  • Apr 11, 2008 3:32am Apr 11, 2008 3:32am
Hi guys,

Well alot of you have been pretty quiet, esp the 'oldies' of this thread. Ok news, i have finally got my account at efx funded. Fell in love with ninjatrader trading platform, their charts are beautiful, considering to buy the platform as a whole.

But thats not what i want to talk about here. You see, since i have started trading fti's methods, my sizing has been reduced by a huge amt. I am slowly getting the nuance of ro3k. I play all 3 pairs now but only 2 will play at one time. I have been using the ro3k 1hr swings charts to arb (or is it not?) eurgbp, eurjpy and gbpjpy.

I believe my results have been fairly ok, but i am wondering, does anyone here ever get over 2% returns on your trades? Coz, I am merely averaging 0.5%-1% per pair. Pls share.

PS: 2% is the return i get compared against my eqy with the broker. Compared to my actual eqy size, its not even a fraction of 1% am i taking too little risk?

Gotta thank leighswww for advising me to cut down my sizing. Now i have more floats to play with and I am considering to redistribute it by opening a futures trading account with Mirusfutures, im thinking of hedging, I might also speculate the emini indexes too.
  • #2,293
  • Apr 11, 2008 7:36am Apr 11, 2008 7:36am
jest, I remember fti once mentioning that we need to find our own comfort level and risk appetite. If you feel you can do better by slightly increasing size and still feel comfortable with the risk (and troops available) then by all means, go ahead. There should come a point where you are nicely balanced but each one of us needs to find that level ourselves.

It would seem most active and old timers are busy dancing and for the new ones, there is enough information in this thread to get the ball rolling. I also get the impression that fti's job is done here from one of his last comments. He may have set the boat sailing and it is up to us to keep it going. I don't mind helping out if someone is stuck and I do appreciate help from others when I may need some clarification.

I still feel fti is or will be around, but just observing more than anything.

BTW, what is ro3k?
  • #2,294
  • Apr 11, 2008 7:56am Apr 11, 2008 7:56am
Quoting jest1081
Hi guys,

Well alot of you have been pretty quiet, esp the 'oldies' of this thread. Ok news, i have finally got my account at efx funded. Fell in love with ninjatrader trading platform, their charts are beautiful, considering to buy the platform as a whole.

But thats not what i want to talk about here. You see, since i have started trading fti's methods, my sizing has been reduced by a huge amt. I am slowly getting the nuance of ro3k. I play all 3 pairs now but only 2 will play at one time. I have been using the ro3k 1hr swings charts to arb (or is it not?) eurgbp, eurjpy and gbpjpy.

I believe my results have been fairly ok, but i am wondering, does anyone here ever get over 2% returns on your trades? Coz, I am merely averaging 0.5%-1% per pair. Pls share.

PS: 2% is the return i get compared against my eqy with the broker. Compared to my actual eqy size, its not even a fraction of 1% am i taking too little risk?

Gotta thank leighswww for advising me to cut down my sizing. Now i have more floats to play with and I am considering to redistribute it by opening a futures trading account with Mirusfutures, im thinking of hedging, I might also speculate the emini indexes too.
Well, today the market is quiet for G/U, but E/U increased 100 pips London session.

I shorted both E/U and G/U. G/U performance sounds right. But not clear about E/U. E/u looks very strong.

Well, the positions size is up to you.

Are you a full time trader? How much you can lose for every trade session? If you want to rescue? Etc.
  • #2,295
  • Apr 11, 2008 8:20am Apr 11, 2008 8:20am
Quoting Zoran
jest, I remember fti once mentioning that we need to find our own comfort level and risk appetite. If you feel you can do better by slightly increasing size and still feel comfortable with the risk (and troops available) then by all means, go ahead. There should come a point where you are nicely balanced but each one of us needs to find that level ourselves.

It would seem most active and old timers are busy dancing and for the new ones, there is enough information in this thread to get the ball rolling. I also get the impression that fti's job is done here from one of his last comments. He may have set the boat sailing and it is up to us to keep it going. I don't mind helping out if someone is stuck and I do appreciate help from others when I may need some clarification.

I still feel fti is or will be around, but just observing more than anything.

BTW, what is ro3k?
Hi, I am here. FTi has taught us all the main parts, it is up to us to refine and interlise and practise.

I started to read again the thread. Actually he has told us everything. I am wondering why I repeat all the same mistakes again and again?

David
  • #2,296
  • Apr 11, 2008 8:41am Apr 11, 2008 8:41am
@Zoran

RO3K is the romance of the 3 kingdoms. FTI still have not completed the 3rd lesson for the aow. He has still yet to teach the schematics of ro3k, so far what ever i've learned from ro3k is by self observation of their corresponding price movements. And i felt that alot of pips is left on the table every time i trade only one pair. Those who exclusively been watching ro3k closely will understand what i mean.

@David,

No im not a day trader...yet. I'll need a little more time to sort things out. My risk size is quite manageable, i can safely say that i can stand quite a bit of whacking but its the profit margins thats causing me headaches. im quite comfy with skew up to 8x book now but im amazed how fti (needles to say) and a few of you can make 16x for the final slew. profts made by going 3x.....is well, small but averaging on 13x is, scary. Example yesterday, i made 380pips shorting euro and cable but the pft margin is barely 0.3% of my trading equity. I did my calculations and the most i could increase in troop count is by another 2stacks only. I'll keep refining and try to keep you guys posted.

If anyone else is facing a similar issue, please sound out. Thanks.

Wishing everyone a good day.
  • #2,297
  • Apr 11, 2008 9:49am Apr 11, 2008 9:49am
Quoting jest1081

Example yesterday, i made 380pips shorting euro and cable but the pft margin is barely 0.3% of my trading equity. I did my calculations and the most i could increase in troop count is by another 2stacks only. I'll keep refining and try to keep you guys posted.

If anyone else is facing a similar issue, please sound out. Thanks.

Wishing everyone a good day.
Well, I don't know how to say. Yesterday, E/U price dropped more than 1%, right? You earned 0.3%.

If this is the case for me, I won't trade forex at all. Since I alsl do some investment in stocks twice a year, it is easy to get 50% per year. Last year I obtained almost 200% gain in stocks listed in China. I am still holding my investment since January 2006, with 30% drawback from the highest price in December, but still got 150% gain by now. Since I sold some during the range of highest price, my cost now is less than one fourth of the price. And I don't need to watch, analyze every day or every week at all.

In fact, I did a very tiny TA on stocks, basically I will buy stocks based on fundermentals. Of course this is investment not trading. As long as the company is still growing by 30%, and the price is not over-valued, fine, hold it.

It is all up to you and your risk preference, anyway. I didn't mean to encourage you to take more risks.

Wish I helped you.

David
  • #2,298
  • Apr 11, 2008 4:47pm Apr 11, 2008 4:47pm
Quoting jest1081
Hi guys,

Well alot of you have been pretty quiet, esp the 'oldies' of this thread. Ok news, i have finally got my account at efx funded. Fell in love with ninjatrader trading platform, their charts are beautiful, considering to buy the platform as a whole.

But thats not what i want to talk about here. You see, since i have started trading fti's methods, my sizing has been reduced by a huge amt. I am slowly getting the nuance of ro3k. I play all 3 pairs now but only 2 will play at one time. I have been using the ro3k 1hr swings charts to arb (or is it not?) eurgbp, eurjpy and gbpjpy.

I believe my results have been fairly ok, but i am wondering, does anyone here ever get over 2% returns on your trades? Coz, I am merely averaging 0.5%-1% per pair. Pls share.

PS: 2% is the return i get compared against my eqy with the broker. Compared to my actual eqy size, its not even a fraction of 1% am i taking too little risk?

Gotta thank leighswww for advising me to cut down my sizing. Now i have more floats to play with and I am considering to redistribute it by opening a futures trading account with Mirusfutures, im thinking of hedging, I might also speculate the emini indexes too.

jest1081,

Just think back to how you traded before you started to follow fti's methods, now ask yourself are you more or less profitable now than you were before you started the fti trip.

If your answer is less profitable than before fti then go back to your old way of trading.

If however, your answer is more profitable than before fti then carry on with this voyage of discovery, but remember that fti stated in one of his earlier posts that his intention wasn't to produce a set of fti clones.

My advice(for what it is worth) is to dig a little deeper into fti's posts there are plenty of hidden gems that haven't really been discussed in group as yet.

Another point, I am not convinced there is a single contributing live trading A/C member of this forum that trades exactly as fti trades.

Final point. Trading for a bank is not the same as trading your own money, who the ***k is going to dig you out of the ***t when you cockup.

One of fti's jobs was to save the skins of less able traders who had failed to exercise good judgement.

Take care.

BabeFX.
  • #2,299
  • Apr 11, 2008 5:02pm Apr 11, 2008 5:02pm
Quoting jest1081
Hi guys,

Well alot of you have been pretty quiet, esp the 'oldies' of this thread. Ok news, i have finally got my account at efx funded. Fell in love with ninjatrader trading platform, their charts are beautiful, considering to buy the platform as a whole.

But thats not what i want to talk about here. You see, since i have started trading fti's methods, my sizing has been reduced by a huge amt. I am slowly getting the nuance of ro3k. I play all 3 pairs now but only 2 will play at one time. I have been using the ro3k 1hr swings charts to arb (or is it not?) eurgbp, eurjpy and gbpjpy.

I believe my results have been fairly ok, but i am wondering, does anyone here ever get over 2% returns on your trades? Coz, I am merely averaging 0.5%-1% per pair. Pls share.

PS: 2% is the return i get compared against my eqy with the broker. Compared to my actual eqy size, its not even a fraction of 1% am i taking too little risk?

Gotta thank leighswww for advising me to cut down my sizing. Now i have more floats to play with and I am considering to redistribute it by opening a futures trading account with Mirusfutures, im thinking of hedging, I might also speculate the emini indexes too.
Jest,
I just got back from Berlin...I read you message and I am in shock!...Maybe it is my jetlag..:

Look. If you get 1 % a day, then using the formula below you will be getting so much money that you would own the whole planet very soon...these have been in my mind for the last 2 weeks and I am very disturbed...It cannot be so easy...be warned.

Formula

FV=100*(1+r)^n

r=rates (your daily 1 %)
n=number of period (take 250 business days in a year)

If you use the formula you will end up transforming $100 into $1200!

Oh well...you might want to become a Soros within the next 6 months! Isn't it 1 % or even 0.5 % a day enough? Remembe that there are black swans out there!

I would be very happy with 0.3% in a compounding mode. It would give me 100% ROI for the year. How many money manager can do such a thing?

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,300
  • Apr 11, 2008 5:29pm Apr 11, 2008 5:29pm
Quoting BabeFX
Another point, I am not convinced there is a single contributing live trading A/C member of this forum that trades exactly as fti trades.
Hi BabeFX,

This is a very important point, imho. I would go further: I believe there are not two traders in the world that trade exactly the same way! Each person has to find his/her own way, learning from other people, study and personal experience. Good trading to all.
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