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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #2,261
  • Apr 8, 2008 2:04pm Apr 8, 2008 2:04pm
Quoting jest1081
Leighsww, i live in SG. If you want, you could give me some details abt fti, since he was a CEO, he should be quite well known here in sg. I could, well sneak up on him lol! Kidding.
Actually, even if you weren't kidding ... I would have to find a way to look him up myself, because I had made a promise to him to never disclose his true identity, so I cannot break that promise/commitment to him, even if it meant being in the dark about his welfare
  • #2,262
  • Apr 8, 2008 2:07pm Apr 8, 2008 2:07pm
Quoting Jairo
I promise that if I open my mouth (or stretch my fingers) again, I will be ten times more careful. Still think fti felt bad. Anyway I will try to survive and compensate for that. Whip, whip, whip on me.

OMG, my stupid fingers again... I think I will reply one more post... Think, man, think....
LOL

* Leigh passes Jairo the Aloe and Vitamin E to help heal his whip wounds *

Quoting Jairo
You rival fti on who is the greatest contributor to this thread!
OMG, I do not even come close to the contributions that fti has made to everyone here! But thank you for your kind words
  • #2,263
  • Apr 8, 2008 2:15pm Apr 8, 2008 2:15pm
Quoting Zoran
Does anyone here have a good understanding of fti's overnight positions? I would like to hear other opinions.
My 0,00 cents...

On an xK standard account, I think it is perfectly safe to let 0.0x lots carry overnight:

1) In the direction of the main trend (if there is one);
2) If the main trend is in line with the intermediate trend;
3) Staying aware of trend reversal formations.

I think this is not exactly what fti meant, but it's the carry trade size I adopted. Very comfortable for me, leaves enough margin for short term fti style trades.
  • #2,264
  • Apr 8, 2008 7:32pm Apr 8, 2008 7:32pm
Just want to start by saying I hope everything is alright with fti. He has certainly shared some great knowledge with all of us. I feel lucky and privileged to find the valuable info in this thread. He has certainly changed the way I look at trading (in my very limited experience).

I am still working on demo, but am having some luck. Just pennies right now. I think this is how Lusan started out with this. I am trying to model his style on this since I have a short time frame to work with also.

I have made a couple of changes that have helped me dance better in this real short time frame. First, I switched platforms to one with tighter spreads, and timeframe down to 5sec. This has allowed me to react quickly to price changes, and start to see the trend within the trend.

I have 3 wins in a row since I switched platforms. I had not been able to put together any winning series at all. (of course 3 in a row may be luck as well as anything). I notice a big difference though with having the short timeframe granularity. I can see a picture that may be developing on the lower levels before I see it on the higher timeframes.

Still have a long way to go with MM and attack/rescue sequences. I don't have a defined pattern yet, and I have happy fingers(open/close too quickly). leighswww, I have started using the spreadsheet you provided for skews and unit sizes. Thanks for your hard work on this.

To get to my point, for very short term trading (2 hours/day), spreads can be killer, and fine granularity timeframe seems helpful.

In regards to leaving a position overnight, I agree with jairo, and also would like to add that I would not feel comfortable doing this unless I just had a massive attack sequence at a higher skew level where I caught a big move, and, if I left a scout in and price retraced back to my starting point, I would still be in profit.

Long way to go with this, but feel I may be finding a niche.
  • #2,265
  • Apr 8, 2008 7:45pm Apr 8, 2008 7:45pm
Hi Guys,

I just wanna stress some points that i have noticed, particularly trading with EFX. They have an avg spread of 0.00005-0.00008 per trade for eurusd. If you include comms, you'd be paying 0.0001 - 0.00013. One round turn will cost you 0.0002-0.00026. So beware of taking profit at 1pip gain coz u'll be losing $$$ on broker fees. MBT really need to be dropping its fees man.

Sometimes i wonder if it would have been a good idea if i had just stuck with a 2pip spread broker or oanda for that matter.
  • #2,266
  • Apr 8, 2008 8:20pm Apr 8, 2008 8:20pm
Quoting Zoran
Does anyone here have a good understanding of fti's overnight positions? I would like to hear other opinions.
Hi, Zoran:

I remember fti said,

1) the positions you can carry over are a fraction of his daylight positions.

2) The position closed bring profits to ourt book, and that give us a buffer if overnight positions got some trouble, so when it did happen, for the worst cases our book has no loss or very small drawdown on general still conforming MM and risk control. Preservation of capital.

David
  • #2,267
  • Apr 8, 2008 8:38pm Apr 8, 2008 8:38pm
@Jairo:

To carry positions on, you are right, zoom out to see longer timeframe.

@Skepeters:

Welcome aboard. You changed to 5 second time frame, maybe it is too tight. Anyway, you may find suitable timefram for you after demoing some time.

@Jest:

Hi. You see, EFX E/U spread cost is similiar to mine platform(3pips). That's why I said, need balance, if trading range is 20 pips, normally I only get about 6 pips.

Trading is a such a difficult job, need to balance btw patience and prompt reaction.

David
  • #2,268
  • Apr 8, 2008 9:05pm Apr 8, 2008 9:05pm
Quoting leighsww
With how I dance, I have no set pip amount. I add the first rescue when I see some indication that the PA is turning back in my direction.
... ...
Hi, Leghw, thanks for your detailed explanation.

Very good information, "wait max. 7 candles to start rescue".

Well, I totally agree with you that I need to reduce my positions. That's why I gave up bigger profit opportunity by closing out prematurely short position of G/U.

Regarding two babies to look after. Well, I have different opinion.

1. It's OK to babysit two for me now. I remembered once I traded more than 5 pairs at the same time, that is definately wrong.

2. E/u and g/u normally move in the same way.

3. Well, let me put this way. The sweetest thing for a trader is that, when a long position opened, the price moves up immediately without any retracement which could bring the positions in book loss. But this is impossible. When a position opened, we never know if Mr Market is ready to go, so there are rescues if he thinks our first entry is too early.

Simililiar to timing, I sent scouts to E/U and G/U both, since I don't know which one is ready to go immediately and will make true price movement.

Maybe I am wrong.
  • #2,269
  • Apr 8, 2008 9:06pm Apr 8, 2008 9:06pm
Quoting Green_David
The positions you can carry over are a fraction of his daylight positions.

The position closed bring profits to ourt book, and that give us a buffer if overnight positions got some trouble, so when it did happen, for the worst cases our book has no loss or very small drawdown on general still conforming MM and risk control. Preservation of capital.
This is the part where i believe its absolutely neccesary to use Stops. First to guard ur foreign capital, second to protect you against volatile moves coz ur not babysitting.

Anyway, yeah trading is no easy job. Past two days i have been getting out with $12 and $15 only. The US hour does not provide much volatility to the Euro, im considering to switch to YEN. Or place bigger troops instead, since the swings are small and non volatile, i could afford to take more risk to take advantage of the stretched range.

any ideas?

regards
  • #2,270
  • Apr 8, 2008 9:26pm Apr 8, 2008 9:26pm
David, here is a trading story that reminds me of the G/U and my former broker (and the North Dakotan who captured all the pigs):

Coyote and Wasichu (Brule Sioux)

There was a white man who was such a sharp trader that nobody ever got the better of him. Or so people said, until one day a man told this wasichu: “There’s somebody who can outcheat you anytime, anywhere.”
“That’s not possible,” said the wasichu. “I’ve had a trading post for many years, and I’ve cheated all the Indians around here.”
“Even so, Coyote can beat you in any deal.”
“Let’s see whether he can. Where is Coyote?”
“Over there, that tricky-looking guy.”
“Okay, all right, I’ll try him.”
The wasichu trader went over to Coyote. “Hey, let’s see you outsmart me.”
“I’m sorry,” said Coyote, “I’d like to help you out, but I can’t do it without my cheating medicine.”
“Cheating medicine, hah! Go get it.”
“I live miles from here and I’m on foot. But if you’d lend me your fast horse?”
“Well, all right, you can borrow it. Go on home and get your cheating medicine!”
“Well, friend, I’m a poor rider. Your horse is afraid of me, and I’m afraid of him. Lend me your clothes; then your horse will think that I am you.”
“Well, all right. Here are my clothes; now you can ride him. Go get that medicine. I’m sure I can beat it!”
So Coyote rode off with the wasichu’s fast horse and his fine clothes, while the wasichu stood there bare-assed.

-Told at Grass Mountain, Rosebud Indian Reservation, South Dakota, 1974.

Taken from American Indian Myths and Legends, Erdoes and Ortiz

It seems like every time I trade the cable I earn a few pips, only to lose all my stuff, I will stick to the usd/jpy for now!

Jest: thanks for your insights, I just witnessed a small light bulb above my head after your "easier to perform rescues" comment that other traders expressed throughout the thread. I think I have a decent feel for rescuing trades after performing a hundred or so, but I am not good at snowballing winners. I think the problem lies in trying to approach both with the same sword (attitude) but now that LuSan has put Musashi on my desk, I am starting to get the feel for an aggressive attack instead of a wait and see rescue. I also like the "raid" idea (LuSan calls it pumping I believe) in grabbing some pips to save for a future fight in case the rescue falls apart.

Leigh: I have been using the spreadsheet(thanks, thanks, thanks) to determine my proper mm, and it has caused me to change brokers in order to lessen my leverage and exposure......trading is fun again as I have calculated the maximum troops and have scaled my attack so I have less worry and a clearer mind when trading. Thanks!

All: keep up the training, these are the right people, in the right place at the right time, with the right attitude, with the right mentor..........
  • #2,271
  • Apr 8, 2008 10:03pm Apr 8, 2008 10:03pm
Quoting jest1081
This is the part where i believe its absolutely neccesary to use Stops. First to guard ur foreign capital, second to protect you against volatile moves coz ur not babysitting.

Anyway, yeah trading is no easy job. Past two days i have been getting out with $12 and $15 only. The US hour does not provide much volatility to the Euro, im considering to switch to YEN. Or place bigger troops instead, since the swings are small and non volatile, i could afford to take more risk to take advantage of the stretched range.

any ideas?

regards
Well, I put this way, if I want to carry my trades overnight, I will think if the price goes agains me for 100 pips(for u/r) will it hurt my accout seriously or I will have no more troops available to rescue? Then I will adjust my positions. In fact, during late NY session and early Asia Session, E/U seldom has a movement more than 100 pips, very seldom, maybe once a month. So I am quite safe, right? If it is safe even with 100pips loss druing that period, why should I place a stop, if I can attend after that period?

You are lucky, still got some profits. I was struggling rescue just to preserve the euqity book last two days. I am also lucky, since my equity didn't go down, even my E/U short positions wete stuck with -50 pips book loss. And the size is not small, I tell you.

Be patient friend, wish you stick to limited pairs only. And the E/U is reaching the end of a triangle on daily chart, sort of. Mr. Market seems waiting for something.
  • #2,272
  • Apr 9, 2008 4:55am Apr 9, 2008 4:55am
Quoting jest1081
This is the part where i believe its absolutely neccesary to use Stops. First to guard ur foreign capital, second to protect you against volatile moves coz ur not babysitting.

Anyway, yeah trading is no easy job. Past two days i have been getting out with $12 and $15 only. The US hour does not provide much volatility to the Euro, im considering to switch to YEN. Or place bigger troops instead, since the swings are small and non volatile, i could afford to take more risk to take advantage of the stretched range.

any ideas?

regards
Hi jest,

With proper size I think stops are not necessary (nor advisable). You would probably be caught in the next stop cluster killing, just before the party begins... Good trading.
  • #2,273
  • Apr 9, 2008 5:33am Apr 9, 2008 5:33am
Green_David - I don't use the 5 sec time frame. I make decision to go long on 5 and 15 min trend. Look to 1 min, and occasionally 30 sec to try to time entry and exit points. Agree 5 sec is too tight. Those waves are just noise to higher timeframes.


Quoting Green_David
@Jairo:

To carry positions on, you are right, zoom out to see longer timeframe.

@Skepeters:

Welcome aboard. You changed to 5 second time frame, maybe it is too tight. Anyway, you may find suitable timefram for you after demoing some time.

@Jest:

Hi. You see, EFX E/U spread cost is similiar to mine platform(3pips). That's why I said, need balance, if trading range is 20 pips, normally I only get about 6 pips.

Trading is a such a difficult job, need to balance btw patience and prompt reaction.

David
  • #2,274
  • Apr 9, 2008 6:27am Apr 9, 2008 6:27am
Hi all.

Have read this thread since the begining and have already "danced" a few times. 11 trades, all in profit.

Finished reading 2 weeks ago but did not have the time to write my "welcome post".

Many thanks to all envolved in this thread, have learned with all of you. (Special thanks to fti and leighs)

Regards
  • #2,275
  • Apr 9, 2008 7:02am Apr 9, 2008 7:02am
dancing

Inserted Video
  • #2,276
  • Apr 9, 2008 11:00am Apr 9, 2008 11:00am
hello fti,

I just read the whole thing. It is very interesting that I have played with the same or similar ideas that you are presenting before reading them here. To some conclusions I came myself, some I read on other gem threads similar to yours. Still trying to put all the peaches and coconuts together and dropping the unneeded stuff. I do know how a chart looks like when it has layers of indicators blocking the sight of the price itself.

i know all about trailing stops.. didn't see it mentioned much here or explained but it is a one way ticket. Fixed and ATR or other indicator based.. all the same end up in the wrong side on the balance sheet.

piccolo

PS - it was a great read and the cream was that all the way to the 152 page of the thread you were not trying to sell anything. usually after such big introduction there is the "essence" available in a book/document/booklet/software for just $253.

PPS - i like your sense of humor.
  • #2,277
  • Apr 9, 2008 1:16pm Apr 9, 2008 1:16pm
Quoting piccolo
hello fti,

I just read the whole thing. It is very interesting that I have played with the same or similar ideas that you are presenting before reading them here. To some conclusions I came myself, some I read on other gem threads similar to yours. Still trying to put all the peaches and coconuts together and dropping the unneeded stuff. I do know how a chart looks like when it has layers of indicators blocking the sight of the price itself.

i know all about trailing stops.. didn't see it mentioned much here or explained but it is a one way ticket. Fixed and ATR or other indicator based.. all the same end up in the wrong side on the balance sheet.

piccolo

PS - it was a great read and the cream was that all the way to the 152 page of the thread you were not trying to sell anything. usually after such big introduction there is the "essence" available in a book/document/booklet/software for just $253.

PPS - i like your sense of humor.
My thoughts exactly. Who is the man to beleive about how you should be trading? The one who spends months teaching for free, or the one who wants to sell you something after a couple of weeks? Easy answer.

I hope everythings well with FTI.

Seems like people havent herd from him for a while.

Lolo
  • #2,278
  • Apr 9, 2008 3:28pm Apr 9, 2008 3:28pm
Thanks for the discussion about the overnighter guys. I was kind of struggling with the idea of not putting in a protective stop at breakeven + 1 to protect profit but I have now come to a realisation.

My confusion lied in the idea of where to put the stop. I confused the number of pips made on the day with the entry of the overnighter. For instance, if I made 500 pips on the day but made my first entry 200 pips away from the current price, a stop 199 pips away may get swept but one set 499 pips away is a bit pointless.

The point of the overnighter is to have an entry follow a clear trend (as I understand it).
  • #2,279
  • Apr 9, 2008 4:54pm Apr 9, 2008 4:54pm
Quoting Zoran
Thanks for the discussion about the overnighter guys. I was kind of struggling with the idea of not putting in a protective stop at breakeven + 1 to protect profit but I have now come to a realisation.

My confusion lied in the idea of where to put the stop. I confused the number of pips made on the day with the entry of the overnighter. For instance, if I made 500 pips on the day but made my first entry 200 pips away from the current price, a stop 199 pips away may get swept but one set 499 pips away is a bit pointless.

The point of the overnighter is to have an entry follow a clear trend (as I understand it).
Hi Zoran,

I don't know if I understand you correctly. You decided to use a stop at breakeven +1?

I have a small overnighter in eurusd at the moment. Why? Because I don't think there is a reversal sign in the main trend. So I suppose the highest high will be taken out. I bet on that. If a reversal sign appears, I will close the position. May be wrong, of course, but I will put my bets on what the market goes showing. I have no stop and will not place one. If the market goes suddenly against me, I will decide: was it a reversal? I will not be stopped out, but will try to manage the new situation (maybe a short term rescue fti style...). If the pull back is simply noise, stop hunting, etc within the trend, I will hold. The position is small and I am with the trend. My margin level is 10000%. Nothing to fear. If you don't stay too much time away from the market, I think there is no need for stops at all. Good trading.
  • #2,280
  • Apr 9, 2008 4:59pm Apr 9, 2008 4:59pm
Quoting seeit
dancing

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oraONu7Jp_Y
Cool!! Exactly the way I trade!!... Hmm, the red heads, I mean...
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