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  • #2,201
  • Apr 7, 2008 3:31pm Apr 7, 2008 3:31pm
Quoting rrram2
NO thats off. Previous was 10.3Billion expected was 5.5B

it came out lower at 5.2B which while this number is RED on forexfactory a lower number is actually MORE USD positive because it means that consumers who previously owed 10.3 Billion now owe much less and even less than what was expected.

So this low impact report is actually USD positive. But it is normally not traded by anyone and almost an insignificant number as it is also PROBABLY
not very accurate.
FOrexfactory says:

Measures the total value of outstanding consumer installment debt, such as credit cards and auto loans. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because historically consumer borrowing and spending have a high degree of correlation.

So this is to say that if this number is down that it is bad for the USD.
But considering the situation many are in, in regards to forclosures and the credit crisis and the general trend of being overextended, I think it is positive
(just the opposite of what is suggested) because if everyone cut thier debt's in half, they are certainly in a much better position to buy something major
like a car or to run up thier credit cards (again). If you are maxxed out on your credit card, You CANNOT keep buying because you have no available credit. So the dip down in consumer debt isn't so bad.
I think it is high times some of these banks who are overextended
cut thier debts in half. Wachovia is the only major bank that is not currently overextended.

As far as revisions from January, those cannot possibly be significant at this point.
  • #2,202
  • Apr 7, 2008 3:35pm Apr 7, 2008 3:35pm
Quoting malcolmb14
All you need is a high , low and lower high for the sell and a low , high and higher low for the buy set up.

Once I have these then I put Fib extenions on the 1-2-3 these give me targets.
Any favored time frames for the 123?
History is written by the victors.
  • #2,203
  • Apr 7, 2008 4:06pm Apr 7, 2008 4:06pm
Quoting malcolmb14
All you need is a high , low and lower high for the sell and a low , high and higher low for the buy set up.

Once I have these then I put Fib extenions on the 1-2-3 these give me targets.
What about this one I took earlier?
Still a little bit in the red.
Wrong time of the day, maybe?
Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ.123.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #2,204
  • Apr 7, 2008 4:44pm Apr 7, 2008 4:44pm
Quoting schmurex
What about this one I took earlier?
Still a little bit in the red.
Wrong time of the day, maybe?
Thanks

Looks ok to me
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,205
  • Apr 7, 2008 4:56pm Apr 7, 2008 4:56pm
It looks to me like we are in for a consolidation of sorts.
I am thinking we could retest those low from Firdays close
In the 202.20/40 range. But 202.00 should hold as solid support.
And on the 180 MIN chart we have the 50 SMA coming in at 201.95

I am holding on to my longs for the final move up into 205
and as before I am buying all the way down to 202.40 and 202.
And as long as 201.95 doesn't break down, we will be in place for another leg up.
  • #2,206
  • Edited 4:05am Apr 8, 2008 3:44am | Edited 4:05am
Quoting rrram2
It looks to me like we are in for a consolidation of sorts.
I am thinking we could retest those low from Firdays close
In the 202.20/40 range. But 202.00 should hold as solid support.
And on the 180 MIN chart we have the 50 SMA coming in at 201.95

I am holding on to my longs for the final move up into 205
and as before I am buying all the way down to 202.40 and 202.
And as long as 201.95 doesn't break down, we will be in place for another leg up.
Ouch, that has to hurt !!

Anyone catch the housing number out of the UK ...

Halifax house price index down -2.5%
Thats over 8x worse than expected
and the previous number revised down to -0.4%.
I can't believe anyone is buying the pound.
This a joyride all the way down

Prodigy - Hotride
  • #2,207
  • Apr 8, 2008 5:21am Apr 8, 2008 5:21am
Lovely move overnite, course, i was sleeping.

Price is now flirting with the hour 200ema. Someone else predicted friday that price would head back to the lower trendline connecting the recent lows from the bottom, which is now near the 199.60 monthly 50% level, and also the monthly pivot. 201.05 is the 50% retracement of last week's up move, already bounced there today. 201.96 is my M1, lookin for good entry for short..
  • #2,208
  • Apr 8, 2008 5:51am Apr 8, 2008 5:51am
Quoting piptrain
Lovely move overnite, course, i was sleeping.

Price is now flirting with the hour 200ema. Someone else predicted friday that price would head back to the lower trendline connecting the recent lows from the bottom, which is now near the 199.60 monthly 50% level, and also the monthly pivot. 201.05 is the 50% retracement of last week's up move, already bounced there today. 201.96 is my M1, lookin for good entry for short..
Short? heh. It bottomoed out at 201.22. I did buy another one at 201.39 and just sold it for 40 pips. Yeppers I am down unrealized about $1500 ATM,
with 11. It will retrace and be back up at 205 in no time.

We need something to pull GJ down, otherwise it would always be going up!

A good short entry would have been 204 . You missed the short. If you think it is going to reverse back down after coming up 60 pips off the bottom,
perhaps you should wait until there is a break of 201.20.

I would not recommend getting short at this point.

Yes I have large draw down, but I am ok with that. And I did say last night it was going to move down overnight, I just had no idea that housing was going to be that crappy, but considering that housing data I am OK with the lower low than I thought was coming overnight. And I am still long and still
going to be buying longs in the dips.
  • #2,209
  • Apr 8, 2008 5:53am Apr 8, 2008 5:53am
i shorted at 89 due to m1 not holding price above. i would like to see retest of today low at least, but will take whatever pips i get. good luck.
  • #2,210
  • Apr 8, 2008 5:55am Apr 8, 2008 5:55am
201.12 was the low, looks like we're headed there
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,211
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:10am Apr 8, 2008 6:10am
Good morning

If a double bottom does not form at 201.15 then targets to downside are:
200.64
199.62
198.5
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,212
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:14am Apr 8, 2008 6:14am
roger that, sir malcomb
  • #2,213
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:17am Apr 8, 2008 6:17am
i tp +48 on the short. seems like wkly pp is holding for now.
  • #2,214
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:25am Apr 8, 2008 6:25am
cable has broken major support, could help GJ to continue shorts..
  • #2,215
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:27am Apr 8, 2008 6:27am
Quoting rrram2
Short? heh. It bottomoed out at 201.22. I did buy another one at 201.39 and just sold it for 40 pips. Yeppers I am down unrealized about $1500 ATM,
with 11. It will retrace and be back up at 205 in no time.

We need something to pull GJ down, otherwise it would always be going up!

A good short entry would have been 204 . You missed the short. If you think it is going to reverse back down after coming up 60 pips off the bottom,
perhaps you should wait until there is a break of 201.20.

I would not recommend getting short at this point.

Yes I have large draw down, but I am ok with that. And I did say last night it was going to move down overnight, I just had no idea that housing was going to be that crappy, but considering that housing data I am OK with the lower low than I thought was coming overnight. And I am still long and still
going to be buying longs in the dips.

Nothing good is going to come of earnings season I do not think,

The 60 min might turn off the weekly pivot, however I see more downside at least 100 - 200 pips. Likely 200.12 , which is 61,.8% fib retracement of last weeks 800 pips move
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,216
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:29am Apr 8, 2008 6:29am
i too see that M. that TL up from the bottom is lookin tasty. near monthly pp and major level at 199.60..
  • #2,217
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:43am Apr 8, 2008 6:43am
I have a Potential long trigger 201.75+spread.

rapid rsi and a breakout of 10,20 and 50 sma on 5 min.

I also have bullish divergence on the MACD on the 5 min.

The price has to come into the 201.75 price to get filled , confirming reversal off the weekly pivot.

If price breaks down thru the 201.4 zone then this trigger becomes void

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #2,218
  • Edited 7:04am Apr 8, 2008 6:49am | Edited 7:04am
Quoting malcolmb14
Good morning

If a double bottom does not form at 201.15 then targets to downside are:
200.64
199.62
198.5
The last 180 minute bar is closing in 15 minutes and the last 2 are very much looking like a double bottom.

Using double bottoms to pick reversal points is very effective I think but what is the smallest time frame you would consider double bottoms valid on?

ON a 5 minute chart, a double bottom for me isn't really valid. BUt on a 60 min and for sure on a 180, I think a double bottom is a good indication of direction.

And if a double bottom forms at 201.15, what are your targets to the upside?
  • #2,219
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:54am Apr 8, 2008 6:54am
since malcomb left i will tell you my upside targets:

15m 50ema would be first target
203.16 would be second target

but for me i only see SHORTS are good, unless m1 is retaken at 201.96

cheers
  • #2,220
  • Apr 8, 2008 6:56am Apr 8, 2008 6:56am
perhaps back to 204 when Us market open
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