And then there is the story of Richard Gere and a gerbil, but that was another place and another time.
- #461
- Apr 3, 2008 8:56pm Apr 3, 2008 8:56pm
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
- #462
- Apr 5, 2008 10:00am Apr 5, 2008 10:00am
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
- #463
- Apr 5, 2008 10:48am Apr 5, 2008 10:48am
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
You say gerbil, he says alternative medicinal healing methods.
Hey no what you want me to go up there?
- #464
- Apr 5, 2008 12:57pm Apr 5, 2008 12:57pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: we are stardust, we are golden | 1,364 Posts
Virtue finds and chooses the mean.
Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
- #465
- Apr 6, 2008 7:08am Apr 6, 2008 7:08am
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
Are these two charts related and can elements of distortion / decoupling / "something" be seen?
You can also feel free to "guess" the charts, but both are pretty much obvious
You can also feel free to "guess" the charts, but both are pretty much obvious
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #466
- Apr 6, 2008 10:53pm Apr 6, 2008 10:53pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: we are stardust, we are golden | 1,364 Posts
Are these two charts related and can elements of distortion / decoupling / "something" be seen?
You can also feel free to "guess" the charts, but both are pretty much obvious
Virtue finds and chooses the mean.
Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
- #467
- Apr 7, 2008 2:15am Apr 7, 2008 2:15am
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
Why are you considering them to be "coupled" to begin with? I see no similarity between the two PA except that they are generally heading up.
--
As for the opening of this week - seems nothing can shock them futures anymore
Downgrades, a little bitty recession here and there, heyyy, it's all priced in, it's all so good...let's see how London takes this
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #468
- Apr 7, 2008 2:26am Apr 7, 2008 2:26am
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: we are stardust, we are golden | 1,364 Posts
Yep. Lots of places where the PA strongly diverged, so why start asking only now?
So they have nothing in common other than the direction, of which there are only two?
--
As for the opening of this week - seems nothing can shock them futures anymore
Downgrades, a little bitty recession here and there, heyyy, it's all priced in, it's all so good...let's see how London takes this
Virtue finds and chooses the mean.
Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
- #469
- Apr 7, 2008 3:00am Apr 7, 2008 3:00am
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
Yep. Lots of places where the PA strongly diverged, so why start asking only now?
Because I was trying to ponder something bigger than a few pips here and there
What I posted was EURUSD and EURJPY.
The peak between Feb-July 2007 on EURJPY pretty much stems from USDJPY topping out at that same time, parallel to DJI 13666-14000. The onset of the mortgage dilemma, right?
However, what is the basic principle and expression of a currency?
Value and strength. Putting aside "value" for a second, I was wondering whether there even was a way at all to decouple EURUSD and EURJPY enough via USDJPY, to have a sustainable downtrend on EURJPY.
Wha I mean is - if the EUR per se isn't a weak currency, how can it be a weak currency against others. Now this sounds a bit tautological or nonsensical(if it isn't weak, how can it be weak), but what I'm trying to say is I wonder whether we truly need a shift in EUR and not just in JPY(which has appreciated somewhere near 20% or so) to turn around that cross.
GBPJPY has shown how there was a more defined move thanks to an also fundamental shift in outlook for an economy COUPLED with the same time and mortgage phenomenon.
I know I might be stating the obvious here, but to me the fact that there is more to "the carry" and stocks lower = cross lower means that things aren't as simple as spinning the wheel and buying/selling just any JPY pair accordingly and/or expecting changes of bigger moves/direction in turn.
Dunno, sometimes something as simple as "can't be a weak cross if you're a strong currency" can be something we forget during trading.
Me, I thought it worth realizing again and the charts posted simply helped me visualize this issue a bit.
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #470
- Apr 7, 2008 6:09am Apr 7, 2008 6:09am
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
- #471
- Apr 7, 2008 12:04pm Apr 7, 2008 12:04pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: we are stardust, we are golden | 1,364 Posts
Since it is not clear how long the dollar will retain it's weakness in the long term (the weekly is very very long term) I say the question itself could be futile. It may be that the Euro loses ground as USDJPY comes back (some say the bottom is already here).. so we might be asking the opposite question soon
In either case you are talking about thought experiments in timeframes (and thereby economic factors) much larger than my short life can take, so I humbly bow out. All I can say is that "weak" and "strong" is meaningless to the technical man. We see only numbers, patterns, hypothesized probabilities. Greenspan would not approve of your type of speculation, but I think he would forgive mine
Good luck.
In either case you are talking about thought experiments in timeframes (and thereby economic factors) much larger than my short life can take, so I humbly bow out. All I can say is that "weak" and "strong" is meaningless to the technical man. We see only numbers, patterns, hypothesized probabilities. Greenspan would not approve of your type of speculation, but I think he would forgive mine
Good luck.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean.
Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
- #472
- Apr 7, 2008 1:52pm Apr 7, 2008 1:52pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Shoot all the clowns.. Shoot'em all | 14,520 Posts
- #473
- Apr 7, 2008 1:56pm Apr 7, 2008 1:56pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Never Give In | 2,518 Posts
Dow 11.6K
Dow 12.3K
Dow 12.7K
Dow back to 11.6K
http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28.../beardance.gif
Humble Lifetime Member
- #474
- Apr 7, 2008 2:54pm Apr 7, 2008 2:54pm
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts
@cesar
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
- #475
- Apr 7, 2008 2:57pm Apr 7, 2008 2:57pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Shoot all the clowns.. Shoot'em all | 14,520 Posts
:Nasty bounce off 12.7K today.
- #476
- Apr 7, 2008 3:07pm Apr 7, 2008 3:07pm
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
All I can say is that "weak" and "strong" is meaningless to the technical man. We see only numbers, patterns, hypothesized probabilities.
It's the same thing, regardless of what label you smack on it.
And if I'm NOT a technical trader, then what on earth am I?
Or am I part of the we? Or not? Or? Or was that the pluralis maiestatis?
Sheebus man, I present a pattern and you say that's nonsense, I only see patterns
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #477
- Apr 7, 2008 4:06pm Apr 7, 2008 4:06pm
- Joined Mar 2004 | Status: Magic Man | 3,220 Posts
Dow ...
Relax and be happy.
- #478
- Apr 9, 2008 4:51pm Apr 9, 2008 4:51pm
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
Just wanted to say the USDCNY just "traded"(if you can call the forceful parity setting that) below 7.0 
Just in time for that G7!
We've also got a new oil record(>111$), but who's counting
Just in time for that G7!
We've also got a new oil record(>111$), but who's counting
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #479
- Apr 10, 2008 5:37am Apr 10, 2008 5:37am
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
Just wanted to say the USDCNY just "traded"(if you can call the forceful parity setting that) below 7.0
UJ around 150 pips lower in the 12 hours from that last post, dito EJ.
I'd love to see 98.5 near term, 80 long term
But more USD/stock market weakening is most likely needed for that.
Since I'm posting and my timing is usually impeccable, there should be a bit of a retrace now first
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #480
- Apr 10, 2008 9:31am Apr 10, 2008 9:31am
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts
Seems the YEN is FINALLY slowly starting to wake up to this as the Singapore Dollar also made a quite epic move as well(some band got shifted and it wasn't the radio). Can't stay stubbornly weak alone forever I guess.
UJ around 150 pips lower in the 12 hours from that last post, dito EJ.
I'd love to see 98.5 near term, 80 long term
But more USD/stock market weakening is most likely needed for that.
Since I'm posting and my timing is usually impeccable, there should be a bit of a retrace now first
Patience + Humility + Study = Success