did i say ej or nj lol or was it both?????????? lol
oops
err i think this one is bullish till the channel is broken
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- #2,141
- Apr 6, 2008 10:06am Apr 6, 2008 10:06am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
err i think this one is bullish till the channel is broken
- #2,142
- Apr 6, 2008 10:07am Apr 6, 2008 10:07am
Interesting thing about nzdjpy is that as gj dropped on Friday this pair did nothing = bullish
Bull flag / cup and handle formation on 60 min = bullish
Support on 50 sma on 2 hour - bullish
Bottom of a linear regression channel on daily with macd saying up= neutral to bullish
Under the 50 sma on 60 min = bearish
Support at 79.80
I would NOT be selling this pair until a break down of that 79.8 support , in actual fact am not sure I would sell it at all right now , instead I think I would wait for a long trigger on the 60min
Attachment
IF you follow the run up from the double bottom on GJ at 197 and compare it to the same time frame on the NJ,They are pretty similar. MY only point is that GJ and NJ normally pretty closely follow each other.
SO how can you say you would wait to go long NJ but projecting severe drops in GJ?
I can assure you 100% that if NJ goes steply UP,
that it will be impossible for GJ to go steply down.
I am holding my longs at least until I see a break down below 201.90's
ANd another crazy thing, looking at esignal GJ chart on the 60 minute for the
bar from Friday 4/4/08 5PM it shows:
Open: 202.22
High: 203.39
LOW: 202.16
close: 202.17
Sure looks like things will be heading down wickedly Come Sunday evening,
But things are rarely as they appear.
That's crazy because accucharts doesn't show GJ going over 202.60 for the same bar. So what's up with the mad spike up on Esignal Friday at 5?
- #2,143
- Apr 6, 2008 10:23am Apr 6, 2008 10:23am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
So you do see some longs?
They are pretty similar. MY only point is that GJ and NJ normally pretty closely follow each other.
SO how can you say you would wait to go long NJ but projecting severe drops in GJ?
I can assure you 100% that if NJ goes steply UP,
that it will be impossible for GJ to go steply down.
I am holding my longs at least until I see a break down below 201.90's
ANd another crazy thing, looking at esignal GJ chart on the 60 minute for the
bar from Friday 4/4/08 5PM it shows:
Open: 202.22
High: 203.39
LOW: 202.16
close: 202.17
Sure looks like things will be heading down wickedly Come Sunday evening,
But things are rarely as they appear.
That's crazy because accucharts doesn't show GJ going over 202.60 for the same bar. So what's up with the mad spike up on Esignal Friday at 5?
does not show high 203.39
200 is no dramatic decline for gj , only 200 pips form where it is now and would be 61.8 % retrace of last weeks move , could easily achieve that before turning back up
The only way I would go long gj right is break 202.60 resistance , with a stop just under.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #2,144
- Apr 6, 2008 10:34am Apr 6, 2008 10:34am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
i understand why u want to wait on nj.... just thought i'd poit out the great rr opportunity to you so you could watch the pairas a thank you for all of your hard work i know you know how to trade and won't make any mistake on it.....
here is what i was seeing and am still seeing
not sure how all the news on firday with affect nj though....but i think it usually follows gj ej as well sometimes..... but the old correlations are no longer as true as they were... i mean look at the gj dow correlation lately...getting less and less.....so
as always trade what u see... this is only a potential setup ..... if it doent fit your straegy or plan then ok..... great.... like i said just something to watch
ej is another i am watching.....
2 cents
ps i dont use indicators
and proper money management and risk reward trades only is how to survive in forex IMHWO..... the profits must outweigh the losses over the long run....its that simple.... i would never give a trade call...
sorry if anyone took it that way...
its just what i see as potetial setups with what i see as possible good risk reward opportunities
dont trade cause i said something....
as you know one must always do their own charting and homework....
nj to me says lower highs on daily and 4 hour and 1 hour and now a lower low on 1 hour
the james16 thread is a famous foex factory thread for you newer folks.....
to me this is a potential set-upala james 16 and pa/ta.......great risk reward for me but i am fine with drawdown and use small tiny positions and tight tight stops so...........
i post this only for learning purposes to try to help some newer folks
THIS IS NOT A TRADE CALL!
only to get some of these folks to start to see what kinds of things to try to look for.... many have helped me here at ff and i am just trying to give back a little bit
regards
d
here is what i was seeing and am still seeing
not sure how all the news on firday with affect nj though....but i think it usually follows gj ej as well sometimes..... but the old correlations are no longer as true as they were... i mean look at the gj dow correlation lately...getting less and less.....so
as always trade what u see... this is only a potential setup ..... if it doent fit your straegy or plan then ok..... great.... like i said just something to watch
ej is another i am watching.....
2 cents
ps i dont use indicators
and proper money management and risk reward trades only is how to survive in forex IMHWO..... the profits must outweigh the losses over the long run....its that simple.... i would never give a trade call...
sorry if anyone took it that way...
its just what i see as potetial setups with what i see as possible good risk reward opportunities
dont trade cause i said something....
as you know one must always do their own charting and homework....
nj to me says lower highs on daily and 4 hour and 1 hour and now a lower low on 1 hour
the james16 thread is a famous foex factory thread for you newer folks.....
to me this is a potential set-upala james 16 and pa/ta.......great risk reward for me but i am fine with drawdown and use small tiny positions and tight tight stops so...........
i post this only for learning purposes to try to help some newer folks
THIS IS NOT A TRADE CALL!
only to get some of these folks to start to see what kinds of things to try to look for.... many have helped me here at ff and i am just trying to give back a little bit
regards
d
- #2,145
- Apr 6, 2008 11:01am Apr 6, 2008 11:01am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
for those that insist on indicators....
here is demark trendline trader indicator on 4 hour tf
i dont rely on this indicator but find it useful sometimes to confirm or deny my suspicions..... it is an indicator only and can be wrong
and the targets are not reliable imho
but just for a snapshot of how i view this pair ritht now.... this indie shows what i see
OF COURSE I COULD BE WRONG but....thats why we all have our own opinion
PS 1 hour is still in a wedge techinically.....but...... i took this one early for the great rr as i said.....
2 cents
here is demark trendline trader indicator on 4 hour tf
i dont rely on this indicator but find it useful sometimes to confirm or deny my suspicions..... it is an indicator only and can be wrong
and the targets are not reliable imho
but just for a snapshot of how i view this pair ritht now.... this indie shows what i see
OF COURSE I COULD BE WRONG but....thats why we all have our own opinion
PS 1 hour is still in a wedge techinically.....but...... i took this one early for the great rr as i said.....
2 cents
- #2,146
- Apr 6, 2008 11:56am Apr 6, 2008 11:56am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
I see what you are saying on NJ , however plot a 10 and 20 sma ., you will find they are forming support right now. A break of 79.8 will take us under the 10 sma on the daily , and would likely yield a good sell.
There is talk of NZDUSD breaking down. I do not see how this would happen. I believe this is only a bull flag on the daily , with 50% fib of the last wave up being at 0.7800.
The only way the USD can get stronger right now is of the US stock markets goes down and investors move their money into treasury bonds.
EJ however stills needs to break that bullish channel on the 2 hour.
I
There is talk of NZDUSD breaking down. I do not see how this would happen. I believe this is only a bull flag on the daily , with 50% fib of the last wave up being at 0.7800.
The only way the USD can get stronger right now is of the US stock markets goes down and investors move their money into treasury bonds.
EJ however stills needs to break that bullish channel on the 2 hour.
I
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- #2,149
- Apr 6, 2008 4:35pm Apr 6, 2008 4:35pm
esignal had many different data sources I use gbpjpy@gain a0-fx i find that the most stable
does not show high 203.39
200 is no dramatic decline for gj , only 200 pips form where it is now and would be 61.8 % retrace of last weeks move , could easily achieve that before turning back up
The only way I would go long gj right is break 202.60 resistance , with a stop just under.
- #2,154
- Apr 6, 2008 8:35pm Apr 6, 2008 8:35pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #2,155
- Apr 6, 2008 8:50pm Apr 6, 2008 8:50pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #2,157
- Apr 6, 2008 9:01pm Apr 6, 2008 9:01pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
So much for that R level anyways. But I was long at 202.40 and bailed out of some @ 203.50 and holding a few more. I didn't see the price as trapped I saw it as reversing from 202.40 which is where I got long from Friday before close. Now its already broken 204 and I'm still long on a few.
not sure what you saw or how you did it but nice trading
I did not see a trade set up for long until today
Now the 60 min says 205 and higher ......if we break 61,8 % at 204
Targets to upside on 60 min now are
204.10
205.27
206.35
207.20
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- #2,159
- Apr 6, 2008 10:02pm Apr 6, 2008 10:02pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
Hey Malcolmb and the rest of the crew.. Really enjoying learning from this thread! Malcolmb, you said you had a long signal on pound/yen at 202.75.. At that price, I see that the 5 minute RSI Had crossed above 70. I was under the impression the long signal was if the RSI headed upwards through the 30-40 zone?.. Is there somthing Im missing here? Or does a cross above the 70 also constitute as a long signal aswell? Thanks in advanced.
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