PowerSM Semi-Martingale EA | Page 9 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Martingale, Reverse Martingale, Modified Martingale, Maths 1 reply

PowerSM Semi-Martingale EA Trades 54 replies

Safe (PowerSM Modified) EA 72 replies

FXTradepro: Strategy using a “Semi-Martingale” Position Sizing 659 replies

Simple MACD w/ Semi-Martingale MM 8 replies

Attachments: PowerSM Semi-Martingale EA
Exit Attachments

PowerSM Semi-Martingale EA

  • #161
  • Apr 2, 2008 9:48am Apr 2, 2008 9:48am
Ah ha!! Now we get to the crux of success for this system:

Determining the start of a volatile range! Maybe further discussion is in order... do you all just watch the charts, (how fast the ticks are coming in, and an increasing range of a bar...etc...) and just jump in when it "feels" right?

Or... is there any volatility indicator that would be helpful... as we know, there is no real "volume" for FX, which is too bad, we could use an increase in that number to indicate more volatility... Tried the Daimiani Volatmeter, but it doesn't really help... Thought of overlaying a ATR1 over an ATR13 say, to indicate an increase in range... maybe indicating more activity/volatility...

Any other ideas or approaches??

Then, there is the good ol' clock "indicator". 7gmt, 8gmt.. somewhere around there for the start of the European session, while everybody is waking up and starting to trade for the day..
  • #162
  • Apr 2, 2008 12:05pm Apr 2, 2008 12:05pm
Quoting mer071898
Well I won't be modifying the source code just to improve backtesting results, and your opinion is noted, I don't agree, but again that's just the way I see it.
of course everybody can have different opinions on backtesting. The idea was not to improve the backtest with optimisation but just to run a backtest.
But anyway it is your EA, and it is 100% your decision to let other people backtest your strategy or not.

I only wanted to mention 2 points that I think may be important for the users of the EA and for martingale EAs in general:
- usually people complain about backtest and give as example scalping strategies that have excellent results in backtest and are catastrophic in forward test. I have not seen yet the opposite: a strategy failing in backtest and very succesful in live and I have coded myself more than 100 EAs either for me or for clients.
- forward test are clearly a better test than backtest for "standard" strategies but for martingale ones you have to take into account one other parameter. Martingale strategies will either wipped out the account or have large losses at some point in time. The question is not "if" the losses will occur but only "when" or even more accurately "how often". Because if it is rare enough you may be able to withdraw your benefits often enough to still go out positive (even if in my opinion it is unlikely). Then how can you get this information, or a least kind of estimate. If the system is good enough and doesn't get wipped out every 2 weeks but lasts many months, forward test is a long way to get the info. Backtest is then the way to go (in my opinion of course)
  • #163
  • Apr 2, 2008 12:33pm Apr 2, 2008 12:33pm
Wow, a little reversal this morning with my Usd/Jpy and Usd/Chf closing out on the first sequence before my Eur/Usd! Here's the statements for 4/2/2008.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip PowerSM Statements.zip   15 KB | 403 downloads
  • #164
  • Apr 2, 2008 8:46pm Apr 2, 2008 8:46pm
Since this strategy depends more on volatility when entering a trade, how about entering at daily high or low + 5pips, this is mostly a breakout position.

Price entry option is available on EA which is really good.

Just my 2pips.




..
  • #165
  • Apr 3, 2008 12:19am Apr 3, 2008 12:19am
This is just my opinion... Fundamentals drive the FX market first and foremost (technicals take over after this).

Taking this into consideration, I try to enter when I think a certain fundamental (news) time will tend to move my position from my starting point.

I really think that the European session (as long as there is good fundamentals coming out) has great trends, volumes, and great possibilities to make a winning trade.

I personally don't use any other indicators at the moment.
  • #166
  • Apr 3, 2008 1:00am Apr 3, 2008 1:00am
I tell you a great way to use this EA if with fibs. If you haven't gone through Bobokus' thread on Fibonacci trading, you should even if you never use this EA ever again. I use fibs to analyze the predictive nature of the market in my everyday trading and you could use this in your EA placement as well. If you look at the pic, and I know it's a little cluttered, there were several fib swings present yesterday and this morning that with proper placement would have easily made money with my EA.

Currently, I'm just experimenting with the timed entry for now to be as consistent as possible for testing purposes. I guess what I'm trying to say is use what is in your comfort zone to make proper judgments on your entries and stick with the plan.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy_usdchf_current.gif Size: 50 KB
  • #167
  • Apr 3, 2008 3:20am Apr 3, 2008 3:20am
Hi Mer071898,

What a terrific idea. Anyway your coder can tie the together and have a fully automatic ea do both?

Jeff

Quoting mer071898
I tell you a great way to use this EA if with fibs. If you haven't gone through Bobokus' thread on Fibonacci trading, you should even if you never use this EA ever again. I use fibs to analyze the predictive nature of the market in my everyday trading and you could use this in your EA placement as well. If you look at the pic, and I know it's a little cluttered, there were several fib swings present yesterday and this morning that with proper placement would have easily made money with my EA.

Currently, I'm just experimenting with the timed entry for now to be as consistent as possible for testing purposes. I guess what I'm trying to say is use what is in your comfort zone to make proper judgments on your entries and stick with the plan.
  • #168
  • Apr 3, 2008 9:04am Apr 3, 2008 9:04am
Entered at 10:00AM GMT +50 TP at 12:35 on first trade eur/usd.

Thanks Mer will check that out!
  • #169
  • Apr 3, 2008 9:40am Apr 3, 2008 9:40am
Here's the results for 4/3/2008
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip PowerSM Statements.zip   16 KB | 429 downloads
  • #170
  • Apr 4, 2008 3:36am Apr 4, 2008 3:36am
Hope everyone's doing well. My Eur/Usd is already closed and waiting for the others to close shortly. Talk to everyone a little later with results.
  • #171
  • Apr 4, 2008 5:25am Apr 4, 2008 5:25am
Hey mer071898 thanks for the sistem and EA. I will post my results too. I only changed the settings of start time (9:00) and end time (18.00). I´m using MIG broker.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip PSM_04-04-08.zip   1 KB | 502 downloads
  • #172
  • Apr 4, 2008 5:41am Apr 4, 2008 5:41am
Only one question. The EA works in live account?
  • #173
  • Apr 4, 2008 5:43am Apr 4, 2008 5:43am
Quoting Kfx
Only one question. The EA works in live account?
Yes. But please be aware that this EA might blow your account away. The timer start isn't the safest thing. Someday it will happen, noone knows when, but it will happen. The only question is: Will your balance minus a 24 sequence loss be higher than your initial deposit?

Regards - Xaron
  • #174
  • Apr 4, 2008 6:01am Apr 4, 2008 6:01am
Quoting Xaron
Yes. But please be aware that this EA might blow your account away. The timer start isn't the safest thing. Someday it will happen, noone knows when, but it will happen. The only question is: Will your balance minus a 24 sequence loss be higher than your initial deposit?

Regards - Xaron
Yes, I know. If someday happen that the system reaches the 24 level, we should have a great deposit of money, to withstand the drawdown.
  • #175
  • Apr 4, 2008 10:15am Apr 4, 2008 10:15am
Well, the only thing certain about FX is that you can't be certain.

Hit the 24 losses a certainty? Maybe. Maybe not. We don't know! But we all CAN agree that we don't want to be the one that hits it!! So.... this is why MER is continually reminding us that this is not a blind system. The ONLY thing we have complete control over is when we take our first trade... (and the SL/TP, but that is different issue...). Agreed with above that WHEN we take our first trade can make us or break us...

So far, the timed entry, coupled with a bit of fundaments analysis (we are looking for movement, volatility....) seems to be the best approach, and has proven to be quite successful so far.

Regarding "blowing" the account... that is why we have the spreadsheet. To ask the question "will the 24th loss blow our account", means that you have not used the spreadsheet. If we do, we will KNOW absolutely where our account will be at each step in the sequence. The spreadsheet Money Management analysis is CRITICAL to the success of this system, and can not be ignored! It is as much if not MORE important than the logic, the EA, the actual trading...

So... play with the spreadsheet... the default will give you around a 50% DD at the 24th loss. Try to reduce it, or make every trade net you $10, see what it does to your DD... pretty fun really!! Currently, I have set the lot sizes to always give me 20p per trade. If I win on the first trade, I make 20p. If I win on the 9th trade, I get 20p. That way, I can calc my returns more accurately. In order to reduce the ultimate DD at the 24th loss (again IF it happens, not WHEN....), I have chosen to accept a breakeven trade, or even small losses for trades 16 and above. In other words, if the sequence goes to 16 or more trades, I am fine with bailing at no gain, or a small loss, in order to reduce my losses at the 24th level. But you can do all this with the spreadsheet, it is GREAT!!

This really is a good discussion, and a good group of traders to work with. Trading is all about probabilities AND risk-acceptance. A friend of mine trades an EA that has performed well over the past few years, but you take a 6 month drawdown period every year!! Too long for me, but he is fine with it. I like this system. I can live with the risk of 24 losing trades, but he can't! He can't stand progressive lot systems, which I have traded for years. So, success for each of us lies in finding the psychological "fit" between system and trader...

Good success to all!! Let's keep working this one here....
  • #176
  • Apr 4, 2008 10:52am Apr 4, 2008 10:52am
Quote
Well, the only thing certain about FX is that you can't be certain.
Very well said mrkam, I totally agree maybe someday it will happen. It may not happen in 10 yrs, it may happen next month. The last time we talked to FXTradepro he was using this live for over 3 years with no loss past the 24 with proper entries and fundamentals.

As you can see, the spreadsheet can be your savior as I've heard about guys in the other thread trying to run this live with half of what they needed in their account, getting blown out and margin called, and then wondering why the hell it happened. Common sense is key, you have to have the equity to cover the possibility of a 24th sequence. And back to the point again, don't sit there and leave all your profits in the account. Take them out every month, three months, a year, I don't care but take them out and don't risk losing it all.

I do appreciate everyones input (including Xaron's) and keeping a positive light with this. Any martingale systems or EA's get bashed pretty hard on forums no matter how safe they look, good job guys.

Oh, and here are the results for 4/4/2008
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip PowerSM Statements.zip   16 KB | 407 downloads
  • #177
  • Apr 4, 2008 10:54am Apr 4, 2008 10:54am
Don't get me wrong. I LOVE this kind of trading as it's based on volatility! I just want to warn to use this completely automatically.

E.g. don't use it on bank holidays! I already use the martingale EA from Rama, and I know the risks...

Regards - Xaron
  • #178
  • Apr 4, 2008 1:12pm Apr 4, 2008 1:12pm
Don't worry Xaron, we understand want you mean. It's great to have someone on the thread that's used a martingale system to give us some insights based on experience. This EA was actually ran during Easter weekend, (Friday and Monday) and made it through without a hitch which is a great sign. Actually, I don't think the EA went past the 9th or 10th level!
  • #179
  • Apr 4, 2008 11:24pm Apr 4, 2008 11:24pm
Quoting mrkam
Well, the only thing certain about FX is that you can't be certain.

Hit the 24 losses a certainty? Maybe. Maybe not. We don't know! But we all CAN agree that we don't want to be the one that hits it!! So.... this is why MER is continually reminding us that this is not a blind system. The ONLY thing we have complete control over is when we take our first trade... (and the SL/TP, but that is different issue...). Agreed with above that WHEN we take our first trade can make us or break us...

So far, the timed entry, coupled with a bit of fundaments analysis (we are looking for movement, volatility....) seems to be the best approach, and has proven to be quite successful so far.

Regarding "blowing" the account... that is why we have the spreadsheet. To ask the question "will the 24th loss blow our account", means that you have not used the spreadsheet. If we do, we will KNOW absolutely where our account will be at each step in the sequence. The spreadsheet Money Management analysis is CRITICAL to the success of this system, and can not be ignored! It is as much if not MORE important than the logic, the EA, the actual trading...

So... play with the spreadsheet... the default will give you around a 50% DD at the 24th loss. Try to reduce it, or make every trade net you $10, see what it does to your DD... pretty fun really!! Currently, I have set the lot sizes to always give me 20p per trade. If I win on the first trade, I make 20p. If I win on the 9th trade, I get 20p. That way, I can calc my returns more accurately. In order to reduce the ultimate DD at the 24th loss (again IF it happens, not WHEN....), I have chosen to accept a breakeven trade, or even small losses for trades 16 and above. In other words, if the sequence goes to 16 or more trades, I am fine with bailing at no gain, or a small loss, in order to reduce my losses at the 24th level. But you can do all this with the spreadsheet, it is GREAT!!

This really is a good discussion, and a good group of traders to work with. Trading is all about probabilities AND risk-acceptance. A friend of mine trades an EA that has performed well over the past few years, but you take a 6 month drawdown period every year!! Too long for me, but he is fine with it. I like this system. I can live with the risk of 24 losing trades, but he can't! He can't stand progressive lot systems, which I have traded for years. So, success for each of us lies in finding the psychological "fit" between system and trader...

Good success to all!! Let's keep working this one here....
Very nicely stated indeed! I did not trade this Friday for example... thats just my style however, Mer traded and did well. Thats the beauty of this EA. There is a fit for every type of trader within it. Welcome Xaron and have a good weekend everyone!

I know I will since I found out the gender of my unborn child today... its a girl! Its my first.
  • #180
  • Apr 5, 2008 1:29am Apr 5, 2008 1:29am
Well, congratulations! I see you've made time for other things besides trading .
1 trader viewing now