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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #2,201
  • Apr 4, 2008 8:56am Apr 4, 2008 8:56am
Quoting crazy_bdog

luSan, thank you for sharing your trading thoughts and for the recommendation of the Book of 5 Rings. I have been attempting to trade FTI style during the Asian session, mainly trading for a few hours around 11 pm to 1 am eastern time with U/J. I find that if you are on the right side of the trend it is a nice time to trade, but if you are in rescue mode it can get difficult due to lack of price movement over time. I do not trade every 5 min candle such as yourself, but will look at 2-3 candle patterns and sometimes rescues can carry on for hours due to low volitility. I also have been over leveraged with a broker that only allows mini-lots at 200:1 leverage, so I have opened an account with OANDA and it should be funded by the end of the week. My success with smaller lots has been better I think due to psychological reasons, but I have only gotten to level 4 entries twice in about 4 months of training......I may try to speed up my trading a little as I have limited time to spend behind the wheel, good luck trading to all, back to the ant's work!

bdog - I'm in the same boat as you. My timeframe is from 9:00 - 11:00 PM eastern time. Things seem to move quite slowly at times. Seems like it can take a while just to get back the spreads. And if you price moves in the opposite direction, well, you could be playing a waiting game.

I started looking at OANDA the other day, b/c spreads are tighter. At least 1 pip difference vs other broker. Sometimes more. I like the .9 spread on E/U. Even though the price movement was slow, I was able to pick up a few pips with the narrow spread.

I'll keep trying with OANDA. I have only used OANDA very recently, so I also have to figure out the platform, and how to figure unit size etc.
  • #2,202
  • Edited 10:59am Apr 4, 2008 9:11am | Edited 10:59am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
always coming back to this thread and thinking......... 'is this realy the only way forward'. If it is........ then I hope I can get it rite and make this style work for me.
Hi Leon,

Have you ever wondered why you keep coming back? Something must have striked a chord right?

You would proly have remembered me from my dow theory thread. The reason why i am so attracted to fti's technique in the first place is his beliefs in TA is very much aligned with my practise in the dow theory, the grandpa of TA.

anyway, this does not mean this can guarantee you the riches, the technique by itself requires competency in reacting to prices, im not competent yet. There is no other way in being adept at it than by personal experience. Thats the MO.

Next is the Risk. I believe we have not discussed much about risk here but allow me to present you a scenario, where the trader, adds troops for every 20pips lost. Lets use 10,000 as the size of 1 troop and the fib sequence, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13 as a basis for increasing our skew.

E.G. I short eurusd at 1.5500 with 10000
@ 1.5520, down -$20, added 10000, 10pips to BE
@ 1.5540, down -$60, added 20000, 15pips to BE
@ 1.5560, down -$140, added 30000, 20pips to BE
@ 1.5580, down -$280, added 50000, 24pips to BE
@ 1.5600, down -$560, added 80000, 27pips to BE
@ 1.5620, down -$920, added 130000, 29pips to BE

And your risk snowballs, while the one quoted above may not be the modular skew we follow but do note that the risks are there....

120pips down with 20lots(mini) running wild in the market is no joke. Thats why both the MM needs to complement the method.

Then again imagine if you trade a micro lot? u would be down 92 bucks and if you win....its so measely that it almost does not add up to 1% of ur equity. But we do the ants job here. The idea is to find your comfort level. of course the example i presented above is proly a worst case scenario but we cant dispute it can not happen.

From trades that i did, i find that i will have to arrange my skew and size in accordance to the volatility of price movement ,so the MM is there, its shady, hard to put between your fingers and its flexible. You may wanna refer to the monk's story.

best regards
jest
  • #2,203
  • Apr 4, 2008 9:22am Apr 4, 2008 9:22am
Hi Jest & Leighsww,
I have a live account with tradestation for the past 1 year and I am moving out of them. In fact I am moving to MB Trading. Here is the list of advantages and disadvantages with TS platform.

Advantages:
------------
1. One of the best charting platforms and really love this aspect.
2. Decent connectivity to servers. Eventhough I don't trade news, I get locked out at some busy times.
3. I have not noticed them trading against their customers. Prices align with other reputed brokers. But they are always behind by 1 or 2 pips.

Disadvantage:
--------------

1. Cost. They charge $ 100 per month as platform fee. You have make 100 mini-lot trades to avoid it. But if you make 100 mini-lot trades it become much more expensive. They have a minimum commission of $1.50 per trade and the round trip will cost you $ 3.00 for $10000 traded. Over this you pay the spread too, which is industry average. I found MB trading offering tighter spreads than TS.

2. Few occasions in the middle of the trade I was locked out. Easier way to get back is by logging off and logging on. This has worked.

Just my 2 cents.
Thanks,
- WaveRider3
Quoting jest1081
Your hubby will be excited if he hears this....
Its now $100. And it will be free IF you can make 1mio in volume per mth.

Thats abt 100mini lots. At the rate that we are going(avg 3-5trades perday), once ur acc can sustain 10,000k as ur scout. Paying for the platform should no longer be an issue.

Platform Fees
http://www.tradestation.com/fees/platform_fees.shtm

Comms (All asset types)
http://www.tradestation.com/fees/All_Asset_Types.shtm



No not yet, i am seriously considering coz i've been on demo with them. LOL. Initially i have considered using them as a broker for my futures trades.

I have a live account with a few brokers namely EFX (high comms), MFGLOBAL (crazy 1pip comms) and CMC (bad spreads). Its think about time i start funding Tradestation, anyway getting price feeds for stocks and futures are cheap with them too. I'll try to findout if its possible to trade micro lots with them.

I believe a switch to tradestation will be a step forward towards quality.

BTW, have you heard anything from fti?

regards
jest
  • #2,204
  • Apr 4, 2008 10:54am Apr 4, 2008 10:54am
Quoting WaveRider3
Hi Jest & Leighsww,
I have a live account with tradestation for the past 1 year and I am moving out of them. In fact I am moving to MB Trading. Here is the list of advantages and disadvantages with TS platform.

Advantages:
------------
1. One of the best charting platforms and really love this aspect.
2. Decent connectivity to servers. Eventhough I don't trade news, I get locked out at some busy times.
Hmmm this one will be a point to ponder.
3. I have not noticed them trading against their customers. Prices align with other reputed brokers. But they are always behind by 1 or 2 pips.
against which brokers? Plenty of times i found efx also a few pips behind interbankfx. Maybe its just interbankfx dealing offer is the real one off the market mark.

Disadvantage:
--------------

1. Cost. They charge $ 100 per month as platform fee. You have make 100 mini-lot trades to avoid it. But if you make 100 mini-lot trades it become much more expensive. They have a minimum commission of $1.50 per trade and the round trip will cost you $ 3.00 for $10000 traded. Over this you pay the spread too, which is industry average. I found MB trading offering tighter spreads than TS.

Ahh thanks for this one. I did not see that there is a minimum charge.

2. Few occasions in the middle of the trade I was locked out. Easier way to get back is by logging off and logging on. This has worked.

Just my 2 cents.
Thanks,
- WaveRider3
Waverider. Thanks for the inputs. It seems to me that i have to stick with efx. How are they as futures broker, are they good for trading index futures?
  • #2,205
  • Apr 4, 2008 12:57pm Apr 4, 2008 12:57pm
Hi all,

I've been very busy of late so not much response from me..Thanks all for the great input..Leighs, the mod spreadsheet looks good, thanks for all your great work. Jest keep up the posts...I am off to Singapore for business this weekend and next week, bit will try and keep up to date with the thread. Have a great weekend all.

Cheers,
NP

ps Ken, I would expect nothing less from you bro...will be in touch.
  • #2,206
  • Apr 4, 2008 3:39pm Apr 4, 2008 3:39pm
Hi jest,
I compared the quotes between TS and MB Trading. TS is lagging by 1 or 2 pips most of the time. Another point I forgot mention was this one. $100 a month puts indirect pressure on you to make 100 minilot trades and you take wrong entries due to this. You lose more than the 100 dollars. Please consider this too before making any decision.
Thanks,
- WaveRider3
  • #2,207
  • Apr 4, 2008 3:57pm Apr 4, 2008 3:57pm
Quoting crazy_bdog
but I have only gotten to level 4 entries twice in about 4 months of training.
Can you post a chart as to how you enter each attack level (up to 4 levels)? I am wondering if you are maybe entering each level too long between each other (unless you are ending up in rescue mode after the 3rd attack level, then that would explain not reaching level 4 attack).

There is no right or wrong way to dance, however, if you're willing to having us examine your level entries, it may help you, as well as all of us, in evaluating how entries can be made more efficient, thus shortening our dances.

I've been changing my style of entries from the earlier pages of this thread, because previously, I was used to the longer-term trading style, so even though I had switched to the 5m chart, I'd enter levels at each pullback and continuation of a wave (as my earlier attack sequence chart showed in Post #1329).

However, I have since found, that is not the most efficient way for my dances, because it causes my attacks to become too far between, and also my dances take hours to complete.

So I'm now entering my level attacks closer to each other and more in line with watching and entering by the looks of each candlestick rather than each wave.

Quoting WaveRider3
I have a live account with tradestation for the past 1 year and I am moving out of them. In fact I am moving to MB Trading. Here is the list of advantages and disadvantages with TS platform.
Thanks, WaveRider3, for sharing your experience with using TS!! That was valuable to know!

Quoting jest
BTW, have you heard anything from fti?
No I haven't, not since he gave me the go-ahead with posting my spreadsheet. I've been a little worried about him, myself, since the last time I/we heard from him was March 25. Normally, he would tell us if he's going to be gone for any length of time.

I had emailed him earlier today to ask him if he's okay (cuz, quite frankly, it's his health that concerns me), so I'll let you know if I hear back from him.

----------

Okay, I have to run errands today, so I'll see you all later
  • #2,208
  • Apr 4, 2008 8:22pm Apr 4, 2008 8:22pm
Quoting jest
allow me to present you a scenario, where the trader, adds troops for every 20pips lost.
Hopefully, traders aren't doing rescues on price levels reached, but rather on whether the dance looks like it's going to make a retrace back in ones direction
  • #2,209
  • Apr 4, 2008 9:12pm Apr 4, 2008 9:12pm
Quoting WaveRider3
Hi jest,
I compared the quotes between TS and MB Trading. TS is lagging by 1 or 2 pips most of the time. Another point I forgot mention was this one. $100 a month puts indirect pressure on you to make 100 minilot trades and you take wrong entries due to this. You lose more than the 100 dollars. Please consider this too before making any decision.
Thanks,
- WaveRider3
thanks for your info WR.i also heard alot of bad comments of them here

after compare with IB,i think the only different of them are:
a)Leverage : 1:100 (TS) / 1:50 (IB)
b)Min entry size : IB: 0.25 lots TS : 1 minilot
c)Min commission: TS : US1.5 IB:US2.5
  • #2,210
  • Apr 5, 2008 5:05am Apr 5, 2008 5:05am
Quoting leighsww
Hopefully, traders aren't doing rescues on price levels reached, but rather on whether the dance looks like it's going to make a retrace back in ones direction
Me too. Adding on a fixed loss is very rigid and risky. Adding on retrace is listening the sound of music and then we dance. ..I do not believe jest meant it...

Your matrix seems good to me. I began to adapt it to my ways: columns for other information, account balance split between safety net and actual trading cash, etc...I will not post it here because your is very good already, still is anyone want a copy PM and I will email after my return to New York. thanks for getting us into record keeping.

fti? I hope all is Ok...some what concerned..
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,211
  • Apr 5, 2008 2:20pm Apr 5, 2008 2:20pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by crazy_bdog http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif

luSan, thank you for sharing your trading thoughts and for the recommendation of the Book of 5 Rings. I have been attempting to trade FTI style during the Asian session, mainly trading for a few hours around 11 pm to 1 am eastern time with U/J. I find that if you are on the right side of the trend it is a nice time to trade, but if you are in rescue mode it can get difficult due to lack of price movement over time. I do not trade every 5 min candle such as yourself, but will look at 2-3 candle patterns and sometimes rescues can carry on for hours due to low volitility. I also have been over leveraged with a broker that only allows mini-lots at 200:1 leverage, so I have opened an account with OANDA and it should be funded by the end of the week. My success with smaller lots has been better I think due to psychological reasons, but I have only gotten to level 4 entries twice in about 4 months of training......I may try to speed up my trading a little as I have limited time to spend behind the wheel, good luck trading to all, back to the ant's work!


bdog - I'm in the same boat as you. My timeframe is from 9:00 - 11:00 PM eastern time. Things seem to move quite slowly at times. Seems like it can take a while just to get back the spreads. And if you price moves in the opposite direction, well, you could be playing a waiting game.


hello all

One of the lessons of AOW was to "know your enemy" and with that being said I was told that if you watch the session your trading you can see when these guys go for lunch and when there are other brakes in the session. I watch the USD/JPY and between 7 to 8 pm PST the market goes flat and just after 8 it starts to move again.

Just an observation
  • #2,212
  • Apr 5, 2008 2:22pm Apr 5, 2008 2:22pm
Dang, sorry peeps, but I had to revise the NEW spreadsheet.

I had to remove some formulas that got copied into some cells by mistake. It will show up when you enter the 12th trade, thus I didn't catch it previously, so please replace the previous one with this new one.

Sorry for the inconvenience!

Thanks!
.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Leighs Forex Spreadsheet - Attack & Rescue 1.1.xls   447 KB | 1,265 downloads
  • #2,213
  • Edited 3:10pm Apr 5, 2008 2:52pm | Edited 3:10pm
Quoting luSan
Your matrix seems good to me. I began to adapt it to my ways: columns for other information, account balance split between safety net and actual trading cash, etc...I will not post it here because your is very good already
luSan ... you can post it. It'll make it easier for you and everyone to just be able to download it off of here, instead of through PM. Just call it something else, like "luSan's Spreadsheet" , so that it's not confusing as to which is which when being downloaded to the computer.

I am assuming that you made the changes to the original/first spreadsheet, and not the NEW one, so you might want to do the same additions to this new one when you get back to NY, cuz this NEW spreadsheet is much better, in my opinion.
  • #2,214
  • Apr 6, 2008 2:26am Apr 6, 2008 2:26am
Quoting leighsww
luSan ... you can post it. It'll make it easier for you and everyone to just be able to download it off of here, instead of through PM. Just call it something else, like "luSan's Spreadsheet" , so that it's not confusing as to which is which when being downloaded to the computer.

I am assuming that you made the changes to the original/first spreadsheet, and not the NEW one, so you might want to do the same additions to this new one when you get back to NY, cuz this NEW spreadsheet is much better, in my opinion.
Sure, but now I have no computer to work with. my power converter went kaput. So this will take a while...I used the old matrix, so I will download the new one when I get home.

Regards.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,215
  • Apr 6, 2008 10:24am Apr 6, 2008 10:24am
Quoting fti
@Green_David,
Technical Analysis is a very powerful tool, in the hands of the trained mind.
It has sustained me thoughout my career in trading, with positive book month in and month out. Does that constitute a guanrantee?
The requirement, of course is that you have to internalise it with the right mindset MO, MM and capitalisation.

regards
hi, fti:

How are you? I am sorry I didn't make myself clear. I said TA is no gurantee, actually what i mean is that TA contributes only part of successful tradings, say 10%~20%. The other more important part is MO(stretagy, methods), MM, mentalset, and enough money as you said.

In this sense, TA is not that important at all. And so many traders spent too much time and focus on TA quite beyond portion than 20% of efforts( is that also a fallacy?). This is one of enlightments you brought me.

Looking back these 4 months trading. I think the greatest gift and enlightment from you is the mental set. So, I start to look at the trading in another way.

I used to be confused about and swithced back forth between short-time trading to mid-time buy-and-hold trading. Now it is clear, the positions you don't need baby sit or rescue could be carried on and held and those positions could be your mid-term positions. Midterm I defined as trading based on 4H and dayly chart.

The second greatest thing is rescue and attack concept. By openning a scout position, we are forced to concentrade price waves and seek oppotunity to add more positions to take advantage of price movement and maximize the use of leverage.

I used to open all the positions with normal size, and then placed s/l order or tp order, after these done then do something else or watching the price moving in my favor or unfavor but doing nothing until the price hit my s/l order or could not reach tp order and profits slowly gone. Is that called trading? Not all.

Some words you repeat quite a lot of times:

"no prediction"
"nimble"
"ants job"
"any methods you exit with profits are good methods."
"MM(Money Management) is the key to rescue and attack"

I think really understanding these words and the meaning behind them worth 1 million $.

Thanks again, FTI, sincerely. Hope you could visit this thread (any way it is your thread) more often after trading , and teach us more and make more jokes, songs, poems, stories.

Green David
  • #2,216
  • Apr 6, 2008 10:52am Apr 6, 2008 10:52am
@Leighw:

Thanks for your table, really impresive. And I am happy you find the way to successful trading and life.

@Lusan:

Your 5m dancing is amazing, 95% success rate!! I think our broker OANDA is robbed. Wonder if you can show us how you dance and why dance that way.

@Jest1081:

Thank you for your explanation on three kingdoms. I thouht it was the historical stories about Wei, Shu, Wu Kingdoms. Is Chinese heratage like AOW become more popular now? Well, I will be glad to see other guys how they think of my country and culture.

I think if three kingdoms i.e. GBP, EUR, JPY move in the same step, it is a very strong signal that USD is weaker/ or stronger, and such movement is a good and strong confirmation that it will last for some time and in good profitable range.

During US session, U/J and JPY crosses tends to move more volitile than London session if DJIA is volitile. Since carry trades price movement have stong correlation with US Stock index DJIA. At least this is what I learned. And JPY crosses movement will have some effects on directs logically if other things remain unchanged. E.g., since EUR/JPY=EUR/USD x USD/JPY, building up E/J positions tend to effect both E/U and U/J if other things unchanged logically. Am I right?

Btw thank you for your trader type link and info about TS. Very intersting.

@NorthPro:

Now I know why I also like to read your post. We shall the same:

You are a Detailed Trader!
The Detailed Trader type suggests that you are very quiet and serious. You tend to earn your success by being thorough, methodical, systematic, organized, and dependable. You are also realistic and responsible as long as things make sense for you. You have two of the three qualities that are necessary for trading success (i.e. You make decisions based on logic and analysis and you are decisive, orderly and do things sequentially). Thus, if you are willing to commit yourself, you'll probably be quite successful as a trader. However, you may need some help seeing the big picture that is necessary for trading success...
One of your Trading Strengths
You should have no problems staying with and executing a simple trading system that someone gives you and you feel confident about.
One of your Trading Challenges
You love the details of trading system analysis and development so much but you can often be working on the wrong things. Your efforts can be misguided if you are following the wrong guidelines or advice.
Would You Like to Learn More About Your Trader Type?

YES! I would like you to send me my free Full Trader Type Report
Click here to see an Example Report




@Zoran:

Glad you finally know the meaning of dancing and how to dance. Wish your dancing as good as your driving.

@Jairo:

Glad you have your own coconut trees. And your bigest gain is your good wife.

@all others

Thank you for bring more thoughts and info to this thread.

Green David
  • #2,217
  • Apr 6, 2008 11:18am Apr 6, 2008 11:18am
1. The Fridat candle on G/U daily chart formed a shooting star.
2. On Friday, NFP is bad for USD, -80k quite below expectation i.e. -50k, and unemployment rate is 5.1% below the expectation of 5%. However, the USD didn't depreciate and after a spike, E/U, G/U is lower than the price before announcement. Abnormal and interesting. The price didn't behave the right reaction to the news. Believe me, in stock market (I have exierenc in stock mkt more than 10 years) such phenomineon will show change of direction or at least a weakness in this case.
3. Next Thursday, GBP will have an interest rates cut announcement, and market expectation is 25 bpts.
4. also noted that three pins formed a resistance line (I didn't draw that, it is invisible)

So, if I want to trade G/U, shorting is my bias.

Of course, as fti always emphasized, be nimble, don't fixate and let ego goes in our trading. And the key to profit is not TA, it is proper MM and rescue/attack operations. Maybe G/U will test 2.0040 again and go up further, we never know But, anyway, if I have to make choice, short is more promising.

Maybe I am wrong.

David
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu0407.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #2,218
  • Apr 6, 2008 12:05pm Apr 6, 2008 12:05pm
Quoting Green_David
1. The Fridat candle on G/U daily chart formed a shooting star.
2. On Friday, NFP is bad for USD, -80k quite below expectation i.e. -50k, and unemployment rate is 5.1% below the expectation of 5%. However, the USD didn't depreciate and after a spike, E/U, G/U is lower than the price before announcement. Abnormal and interesting. The price didn't behave the right reaction to the news. Believe me, in stock market (I have exierenc in stock mkt more than 10 years) such phenomineon will show change of direction or at least a weakness in this case.
3. Next Thursday, GBP will have an interest rates cut announcement, and market expectation is 25 bpts.
4. also noted that three pins formed a resistance line (I didn't draw that, it is invisible)

So, if I want to trade G/U, shorting is my bias.

Of course, as fti always emphasized, be nimble, don't fixate and let ego goes in our trading. And the key to profit is not TA, it is proper MM and rescue/attack operations. Maybe G/U will test 2.0040 again and go up further, we never know But, anyway, if I have to make choice, short is more promising.

Maybe I am wrong.

David
Hi David,

I am new in this complex world of Forex (less than 1 year). Your explanation is crystal clear. While nothing is 100% accurate but at least after your explanation and rationalization you make your stand, that show GUTS. I think it is of not much value when a person talk so much about a subject but at the end of the day...............does not make a clear conclusion and make a stand.I hope to hear from you more often in the forum. Thanks for sharing and frankly this infomation help me a lot in my trading. God Bless You.
  • #2,219
  • Apr 6, 2008 12:27pm Apr 6, 2008 12:27pm
David, if you are unsure abt being long on USD. EURGBP might be an option. They are after all directly related to EurUsd and GbpUsd. Going long on Eur during obvious GBP weakness could bag a huge bacon fer ya.

some charts posted below for the snazzy effec, lol.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly majors.jpg Size: 98 KB
  • #2,220
  • Apr 6, 2008 12:48pm Apr 6, 2008 12:48pm
Quoting Green_David
1. The Fridat candle on G/U daily chart formed a shooting star.
2. On Friday, NFP is bad for USD, -80k quite below expectation i.e. -50k, and unemployment rate is 5.1% below the expectation of 5%. However, the USD didn't depreciate and after a spike, E/U, G/U is lower than the price before announcement. Abnormal and interesting. The price didn't behave the right reaction to the news. Believe me, in stock market (I have exierenc in stock mkt more than 10 years) such phenomineon will show change of direction or at least a weakness in this case.
3. Next Thursday, GBP will have an interest rates cut announcement, and market expectation is 25 bpts.
4. also noted that three pins formed a resistance line (I didn't draw that, it is invisible)

So, if I want to trade G/U, shorting is my bias.

Of course, as fti always emphasized, be nimble, don't fixate and let ego goes in our trading. And the key to profit is not TA, it is proper MM and rescue/attack operations. Maybe G/U will test 2.0040 again and go up further, we never know But, anyway, if I have to make choice, short is more promising.

Maybe I am wrong.

David
David, welcome back, I have not read you in a while...

fti is out...we are minding the store until he get back...he might be reading all our madness and come back and beat us to the ground...any way...you could go to my journal and see my fast dance with what I am able to understand of ftiīs teachings...I am still evolving and into risk management...leigh and jest are giving me great insight about...do they know?...I hope so...the big question, how to hedge our acccount? My simple answer: split the trading account and let margin call works for us...madness? Imagin, margin call as our salvation from hell!!!

Me? I go short in your chart, but notice that the double bottom is there...a potential reversal...but I dot not play your shown time frame...so it might go higher...be ready for a quick salvage operation....yes...a reversal...wait and see then trade..

oh...what am I saying?!...I do not know if you should go long or short..I reallz do not know...unclear...but I go short and then...PA will tell me if I was wrong...If so...I will do what it takes...

Regard and welcome back
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
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