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  • #441
  • Apr 3, 2008 8:39pm Apr 3, 2008 8:39pm

Headfakes


http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/7/...6/headfake.gif


I just wanted to post some examples of headfakes I was able to spot. Normally these setup look like great entries to me, but my stochastics were giving me mixed signals so I stayed away. The one chart that did give me a good buy signal was the U/J trade and if I had the patience to stick with the trade it would have gone into profit 90 minutes later.

One other rule I use lightly when thinking about entering a trade is I want the size of the candles to be at a minimum 2x (preferably 3x) the size of my spread. This is also one of the ways I gauge a lazy market. If the candles forming are less than 2x my spread from top wick to bottom wick I will not enter a trade. I figure if the previous candles are big enough the market has enough volume/volitility to get me in and out of a trade with positive pips quickly.

Anyone else have any rules they follow loosely like this?

PS: The missing candles in the U/J chart are Doji's that for some reason don't show on my black background.
  • #442
  • Edited 9:40pm Apr 3, 2008 8:43pm | Edited 9:40pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by w_z http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
instead of using the 3 ema, why not make it simpler and just use price + 34 sma instead?


A lot of pros trade with just one ma

Quoting Waterflame
Price can lag, the 3 Ema filter the moves, and is not laggy like price alone, and not to smooth for price
hi, Waterflame! could you please elaborate on lag/overshoot
common perception - all indicators built on price action - so they lag; leading indicators - lying, useless on trend; trend/range - you always wrong once(and again); price - the best and only indicator... etc.
strange, nobody gave you hard time 4 "Price can lag"

below - cci on chart, hooked on ma - shows nature of cci
(reflects momentum, price deviation from sma (when price crosses sma - cci crosses zero)

if set MA period to 1,- you have cci on price
cci_onMA+MAs- shows price line (typical/close) 4 comparison
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cci on ma.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cci mas.gif Size: 25 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 CCI_onMA.mq4   3 KB | 480 downloads
File Type: mq4 CCI_onMA_MAs.mq4   4 KB | 509 downloads
  • #443
  • Apr 3, 2008 9:12pm Apr 3, 2008 9:12pm
little off topic question does anyone know if you have to pay tax if you don't withdraw ?
  • #444
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:40pm Apr 3, 2008 10:40pm
Quoting itangsanjana
Waterflame, do you mean 3 separate lots/ trade?
no just 1 lot, and the possible targets of the position
  • #445
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:41pm Apr 3, 2008 10:41pm
Quoting Kevyluvu

Headfakes





I just wanted to post some examples of headfakes I was able to spot. Normally these setup look like great entries to me, but my stochastics were giving me mixed signals so I stayed away. The one chart that did give me a good buy signal was the U/J trade and if I had the patience to stick with the trade it would have gone into profit 90 minutes later.

One other rule I use lightly when thinking about entering a trade is I want the size of the candles to be at a minimum 2x (preferably 3x) the size of my spread. This is also one of the ways I gauge a lazy market. If the candles forming are less than 2x my spread from top wick to bottom wick I will not enter a trade. I figure if the previous candles are big enough the market has enough volume/volitility to get me in and out of a trade with positive pips quickly.

Anyone else have any rules they follow loosely like this?

PS: The missing candles in the U/J chart are Doji's that for some reason don't show on my black background.

nice, i will take a look at it, thanks

everything what will help to avoid even this little fakes will be good

so we reach soon 100%
  • #446
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:43pm Apr 3, 2008 10:43pm
Quoting fxxx
Quote:
Originally Posted by w_z http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
instead of using the 3 ema, why not make it simpler and just use price + 34 sma instead?


A lot of pros trade with just one ma



hi, Waterflame! could you please elaborate on lag/overshoot
common perception - all indicators built on price action - so they lag; leading indicators - lying, useless on trend; trend/range - you always wrong once(and again); price - the best and only indicator... etc.
strange, nobody gave you hard time 4 "Price can lag"

Sorry, but, i haven't understand anything

below - cci on chart, hooked on ma - shows nature of cci
(reflects momentum, price deviation from sma (when price crosses sma - cci crosses zero)

Let me give it a try, its itneresting to see new stuff

if set MA period to 1,- you have cci on price
cci_onMA+MAs- shows price line (typical/close) 4 comparison


...
  • #447
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:45pm Apr 3, 2008 10:45pm
people who wanna talk forex or Elite

download Mirc and

join /server irc.frenzyforex.com


#Forex is the usual forex traders chan

#Eliteforex elite is only for elite discussions
  • #448
  • Apr 4, 2008 2:12am Apr 4, 2008 2:12am
This system is in danger of defeating the object of being simple,I've noticed that there are more and more indicators being used on the chart. The original system is ok.
  • #449
  • Apr 4, 2008 2:54am Apr 4, 2008 2:54am
Quoting Dave1
This system is in danger of defeating the object of being simple,I've noticed that there are more and more indicators being used on the chart. The original system is ok.
I agree that... But for filtering ranging market like today, i'm using an indic based on MACD :

(see picture)

what do you think ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #450
  • Apr 4, 2008 2:56am Apr 4, 2008 2:56am
Hi Waterflame,

Thanks for the simple system. Love the simplicity and yet its making more pips then losing them. Do you mind to tell me what broker do you use? Since you're making money and I guess that you have made a lot of withdrawals from your broker, at least I'd know that your broker is reliable. I am asking this is because I am a newbie and I would'nt want to risk putting my hard earn cash into a broker who couldn't pay when you're winning. Currently I am with IBFX, and I'm only using a minimal amount to test with. Since your system works great, I'd like to put all of my available fund into a reliable broker.

Thanks for sharing!
  • #451
  • Apr 4, 2008 3:10am Apr 4, 2008 3:10am
I am a newbie to forex ............I have traded a demo for 3 months I also have a live account running at a big loss, since starting out I have used most of the methods on forex factory, this system has been the best by far, nice and simple no gimicks or flashing lights, I wiil use this system on my live account monday to bring back my loses.

Thanks Water Flame
  • #452
  • Apr 4, 2008 4:23am Apr 4, 2008 4:23am
Quoting Dave1
This system is in danger of defeating the object of being simple,I've noticed that there are more and more indicators being used on the chart. The original system is ok.
Dave, you are correct. It always happens, it's human nature to take a perfectly good system and turn it into a FUBAR. So far the Author is reluctant to change anything and I applaud him for keeping it simple.

Waterflame, congratulations on producing an excellent system, and having the patience to answer all the questions. I have run this system alongside my own, and I can tell you that what you are trading here, and what makes it quite powerful, is the fact that you have discovered the second most important "Pressure Point" of the six that exist in the market.

In my library I have a book called " The Day Traders Advantage" by Howard Abell.
About 18 pages are devoted to an interview with the legendary traded Bill Williams Ph.D. ( Chaos, fractals, MFI,and any ammount of Indicators).
To cut a long story short, Bill Williams believes that the markets are five dimensional, and after two years of research and developement, I would have to agree. Three of the dimensions are constantly on the move, and cross each other all the time. When they cross each other it produces a pressure point, and the market reacts accordingly. The forth dimension is static, and provides an axis for the first three to revolve around. You can think of the zero line on your CCI as the Axis. When the first three mentioned dimensions cross this Axis, their actions produce another three pressure points.

This is what you are trading , a dimension as it crosses the Axis.
It's a definate edge, I recommend it.

Good Trading.

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #453
  • Apr 4, 2008 6:35am Apr 4, 2008 6:35am
Quoting dragosd1
Man, as I said, is a manual backtest
I know about the mod quality, that's the best MT4 can give, but it was made manually, so it does not matter the modelling quality!

Relax, I was not trying to pick on you.

My response was to Kevyluvu comment. At that time we did not know it was manual backtesting, me response was written at the same time as your post explaining it was manual backtesting.
Liberate me ex inferis
  • #454
  • Edited 10:47am Apr 4, 2008 10:24am | Edited 10:47am
[quote=fxxx;1935878]Quote:

Quoting Waterflame
...
Sorry, but, i haven't understand anything
...
Alright, question was basically:

Waterflame, can you explain what you mean by "price can lag"
(many people think most indicators are lag, price -the best indicator)
thank you
  • #455
  • Apr 4, 2008 10:50am Apr 4, 2008 10:50am

Hey Karim,

I am going to continue updating my thread with charts and trades so I don't confuse anyone here. I have come to the conclusion that you can trade this simple system as you intended it and make pips. My charts are a bit different and last night I traded the news which is directly against the rules of this system. Anyways I want to continue posting my live trades and I don't want to contradict the purpose and focus of this thread.

Many thanks for opening my eyes Flame, and I wish you much success.

-Kevin

  • #456
  • Apr 4, 2008 11:04am Apr 4, 2008 11:04am
Quoting Ronyn76
Relax, I was not trying to pick on you.

My response was to Kevyluvu comment. At that time we did not know it was manual backtesting, me response was written at the same time as your post explaining it was manual backtesting.
No problem, I was relaxed....
Didn't realize at that time .....
I don't say
  • #457
  • Apr 4, 2008 11:29am Apr 4, 2008 11:29am
Hello everyone

This week I lose nearly 20 trades on my live account so next week I return on my demo account for training again whit discipline for follows the rules of this great simple system thank a lot for your good job and attention
A+
  • #458
  • Apr 4, 2008 1:42pm Apr 4, 2008 1:42pm
Quoting Kevyluvu

Headfakes





I just wanted to post some examples of headfakes I was able to spot. Normally these setup look like great entries to me, but my stochastics were giving me mixed signals so I stayed away. The one chart that did give me a good buy signal was the U/J trade and if I had the patience to stick with the trade it would have gone into profit 90 minutes later.

yeah, it was a real fake parade this asian session

i had a short in euryen i thing, what wented against me, but bought in usdyen, recovering my little loss...

One other rule I use lightly when thinking about entering a trade is I want the size of the candles to be at a minimum 2x (preferably 3x) the size of my spread. This is also one of the ways I gauge a lazy market. If the candles forming are less than 2x my spread from top wick to bottom wick I will not enter a trade. I figure if the previous candles are big enough the market has enough volume/volitility to get me in and out of a trade with positive pips quickly.

This is too a good idea for entry, i related the big candles almost for kind of fakes, you idea of entry candles with more potential is very good, we must discuss this.
.
  • #459
  • Apr 4, 2008 1:45pm Apr 4, 2008 1:45pm
Quoting Dave1
This system is in danger of defeating the object of being simple,I've noticed that there are more and more indicators being used on the chart. The original system is ok.

thanks dave,

but momently not realy, everyone have ideas and questions, its usual to ask about soemthing what is not described, i have forgot to say, or the also weaknesses of this system, to get to 100% effectiveness.

the other indicators are just tools to help, not a changing of the basic concept.
  • #460
  • Apr 4, 2008 1:47pm Apr 4, 2008 1:47pm
Quoting remcous
I agree that... But for filtering ranging market like today, i'm using an indic based on MACD :

(see picture)

what do you think ?
would you be honest to share with us this tool, just to take a look on it,

thanks in advance
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