i will post the same daily chart, again. this time with the usual oscillators i'm using: stochastic as a histogram, cci 55 as a histogram and then cci 14.
a close above the trendline is gonna get us pretty high. 207.48 will be just an intermediate target, but i say we will see 213.35 (maybe 211.18 which is 38.2 fibo). but... IF. and this is a very very big IF, in my opinion.
i do not favor a breakout of this trendline mainly because of the following reasons:
1. i don't see the usual trend weakening signs: bullish regular divergence on cci 14 and stochastic at the level of the last extreme low which was 192.53; i don't even see the regular divergence on cci 55, which i consider to be a long term indicator...
2. i would expect cci 14 and stochastic to be around mid levels (that is, 0 for cci and 50 for stochastic) when breakout occurs. right now these oscillators are extremely OB... out on the roof.
possible evolution:
- rebound to 200.50 area, and then another test of 204.50. in the meantime, daily oscillators will calm down towards mid levels - the possibility of the breakout will greatly increase in this case.
- a fall towards last daily support - 194.27 - or even more; this will create the bearish regular divergence on oscillators... and THEN i will be ready to open reliable longs, for more then a couple of hours.
- or a pathetic breakout of this daily trendline... and then a freaking range... up 200 pips... down 300... up 400... and so on.
but right now, the whole picture looks like a huge bearish HIDDEN divergence waiting to happen.
a close above the trendline is gonna get us pretty high. 207.48 will be just an intermediate target, but i say we will see 213.35 (maybe 211.18 which is 38.2 fibo). but... IF. and this is a very very big IF, in my opinion.
i do not favor a breakout of this trendline mainly because of the following reasons:
1. i don't see the usual trend weakening signs: bullish regular divergence on cci 14 and stochastic at the level of the last extreme low which was 192.53; i don't even see the regular divergence on cci 55, which i consider to be a long term indicator...
2. i would expect cci 14 and stochastic to be around mid levels (that is, 0 for cci and 50 for stochastic) when breakout occurs. right now these oscillators are extremely OB... out on the roof.
possible evolution:
- rebound to 200.50 area, and then another test of 204.50. in the meantime, daily oscillators will calm down towards mid levels - the possibility of the breakout will greatly increase in this case.
- a fall towards last daily support - 194.27 - or even more; this will create the bearish regular divergence on oscillators... and THEN i will be ready to open reliable longs, for more then a couple of hours.
- or a pathetic breakout of this daily trendline... and then a freaking range... up 200 pips... down 300... up 400... and so on.
but right now, the whole picture looks like a huge bearish HIDDEN divergence waiting to happen.
Nihil Sine Deo.