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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #2,181
  • Apr 2, 2008 10:36am Apr 2, 2008 10:36am
lusan,
You mention to jest1081 you usually bite the bullet after an hour if price is moving away. Don't you think we have a better oppurtunity waiting till the 4hr. to make a decision to bite the bullet? It seems to me we have more oppurtunities for rescues.
Then again, are you still constrained by the time factor of 1-2 hrs?
Whatever the case isn't it better to at least go the 4 hours?
  • #2,182
  • Apr 2, 2008 10:48am Apr 2, 2008 10:48am
You are a Detailed Trader!
The Detailed Trader type suggests that you are very quiet and serious. You tend to earn your success by being thorough, methodical, systematic, organized, and dependable. You are also realistic and responsible as long as things make sense for you. You have two of the three qualities that are necessary for trading success (i.e. You make decisions based on logic and analysis and you are decisive, orderly and do things sequentially). Thus, if you are willing to commit yourself, you'll probably be quite successful as a trader. However, you may need some help seeing the big picture that is necessary for trading success...
One of your Trading Strengths
You should have no problems staying with and executing a simple trading system that someone gives you and you feel confident about.
One of your Trading Challenges
You love the details of trading system analysis and development so much but you can often be working on the wrong things. Your efforts can be misguided if you are following the wrong guidelines or advice.


I think if I commit anymore than I am already, my wife will kick me to the curb! lol
  • #2,183
  • Apr 2, 2008 1:38pm Apr 2, 2008 1:38pm
So guys, this is what i was talking about. I was watching some developments in ro3k.

on the hourly lets spot the anomaly, look at jpy she trends well retraces and continues her upward drift. as expected the cable and euro turned down but wait three hours later, they decided to emulate Yen's swing! now all three charts look the same.

So my itchy fingers did a demo test...long eurjpy and long gbpjpy....thats abt 180+ pips
the rest is all shown on the charts.
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  • #2,184
  • Apr 2, 2008 9:52pm Apr 2, 2008 9:52pm
Quoting Northpro
You are a Detailed Trader!
The Detailed Trader type suggests that you are very quiet and serious. You tend to earn your success by being thorough, methodical, systematic, organized, and dependable. You are also realistic and responsible as long as things make sense for you. You have two of the three qualities that are necessary for trading success (i.e. You make decisions based on logic and analysis and you are decisive, orderly and do things sequentially). Thus, if you are willing to commit yourself, you'll probably be quite successful as a trader. However, you may need some help seeing the big picture that is necessary for trading success...
One of your Trading Strengths
You should have no problems staying with and executing a simple trading system that someone gives you and you feel confident about.
One of your Trading Challenges
You love the details of trading system analysis and development so much but you can often be working on the wrong things. Your efforts can be misguided if you are following the wrong guidelines or advice.


I think if I commit anymore than I am already, my wife will kick me to the curb! lol
You best give "K" more time or else you'll be on the curb for sure.

Spend less time trading, I have cut my time to less then 2 hours per day compared to the way we use to trade and make far less trades then I use to, but profits and win/loss ratio has changed to 100/0 since the first of the year.

Average 1-2 trades per day, same time every day.

Sleep all night with no concerns of what the market is doing. lol

Give me a ring sometime.

Cheers,

Ken
  • #2,185
  • Apr 3, 2008 4:33am Apr 3, 2008 4:33am
At last after ordering "Paper Money" some 6 weeks ago it has finally arrived. I just hope it is as good a read as fti claimed.

BabeFX.
  • #2,186
  • Apr 3, 2008 8:02am Apr 3, 2008 8:02am
I wonder what happened here? Everyones so quiet?

@Babefx, Happy reading

Back to my observation on ro3k...again.
Yen didi it again today. the euro and gnp moved lower in trends.
Yen could not break the high. it was like a clear signal that the crosses have no strength whatsover. So i shorted the euryen...demo. i wanna learn and further understad the relationship.

So far two in a row.....
PS Euro and gbp picked up....time to wind down my crosses.
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  • #2,187
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:25am Apr 3, 2008 10:25am
Quoting lilpip
lusan,
You mention to jest1081 you usually bite the bullet after an hour if price is moving away. Don't you think we have a better oppurtunity waiting till the 4hr. to make a decision to bite the bullet? It seems to me we have more oppurtunities for rescues.
Then again, are you still constrained by the time factor of 1-2 hrs?
Whatever the case isn't it better to at least go the 4 hours?
my friend, I have never biten the bullet...I fight to break even or win...and that is not good...yes...with the exception of one day, my sucess rate is 100%...-hey there are other here doing very good but they keep it quite. I do not. I want to make sure that fti get all the credit for teaching us.)

...but that make me very uneasy because it is not natural...I am still working on my right approach to face risk without that odd feeling...

...fti told me that even though we protect the holy book...we need to have a line on the sand and bail out...I do not have that line yet and that is not good all. Why? Because he is right!!

Regarding waiting... It depends...I have actually 3 reasons for the 1-2 session...(1) my current profession/job (2) the longer one is alive the longer we are exposure to destruction and (3) the high mental demand of the fast dance... I observed that all my trade normally fall within 1 or 2 hours 1H bar.

as fti told us, when the 5M is in trouble, he begin looking to the 15M and higher time frame...of course he got the whole day to dance, the deep pocket and the experience for a world war.

..I hope this help you.

Regards
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,188
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:34am Apr 3, 2008 10:34am
Quoting jest1081
I wonder what happened here? Everyones so quiet?

@Babefx, Happy reading

Back to my observation on ro3k...again.
Yen didi it again today. the euro and gnp moved lower in trends.
Yen could not break the high. it was like a clear signal that the crosses have no strength whatsover. So i shorted the euryen...demo. i wanna learn and further understad the relationship.

So far two in a row.....
PS Euro and gbp picked up....time to wind down my crosses.
Actually, I just came out of bed and I saw your 3 kingdoom charts...

I like it very much...I need to explore this idea...are you going to collect a sample set (demo for 20 or 30 session) and check how accurate is this strategy? ..this could be easy way for a slow dance...i think.

Some people are on vacation..others are gone...and other probably found that indicator were more fun...

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,189
  • Edited 11:31am Apr 3, 2008 10:57am | Edited 11:31am
Quoting luSan
Actually, I just came out of bed and I saw your 3 kingdoom charts...

I like it very much...I need to explore this idea...are you going to collect a sample set (demo for 20 or 30 session) and check how accurate is this strategy? ..this could be easy way for a slow dance...i think.

Some people are on vacation..others are gone...and other probably found that indicator were more fun...

Regards,
ro3k gives a good 'signal' (omg pls dun mistake this for indicators ya, majors determine crosses), when 'normality' returns, its abt time to wind out of position. Saw how eurjpy rallied back? is this arb? lol. starting to really look like one.

are you going to collect a sample set (demo for 20 or 30 session) and check how accurate is this strategy?
im not sure im gonna do a sample collection. I'll just keep monitoring and let experience take its course. I'll keep my thoughts and observation posted though.

i cant say anything is cast in stone yet but so far my tests and observation has proved that by noting price movements in the majors, crosses could be exploited for easy pickings.
  • #2,190
  • Apr 3, 2008 11:14am Apr 3, 2008 11:14am
Quoting luSan
Last night a ran a little test...the dollar was in a trench...not much was going on...and I noticed that the fast dance we do did extremmly well... 2 % ROE in 2 hours...Maybe quiet and non-trending market maybe be better for this fast style...Odd, because all the books and gurus tell us to play the trend...and here I am finding out that no trend is really a heck of lot safer...
Quoting luSan

Anyone has a thought about that...


luSan, thank you for sharing your trading thoughts and for the recommendation of the Book of 5 Rings. I have been attempting to trade FTI style during the Asian session, mainly trading for a few hours around 11 pm to 1 am eastern time with U/J. I find that if you are on the right side of the trend it is a nice time to trade, but if you are in rescue mode it can get difficult due to lack of price movement over time. I do not trade every 5 min candle such as yourself, but will look at 2-3 candle patterns and sometimes rescues can carry on for hours due to low volitility. I also have been over leveraged with a broker that only allows mini-lots at 200:1 leverage, so I have opened an account with OANDA and it should be funded by the end of the week. My success with smaller lots has been better I think due to psychological reasons, but I have only gotten to level 4 entries twice in about 4 months of training......I may try to speed up my trading a little as I have limited time to spend behind the wheel, good luck trading to all, back to the ant's work!
  • #2,191
  • Edited 9:50pm Apr 3, 2008 9:30pm | Edited 9:50pm
Quoting DutchAngel
Leighs

Here are my results.
Cool, DutchAngel! How FUN seeing everyone's test results!

Quoting luSan
Odd, because all the books and gurus tell us to play the trend...and here I am finding out that no trend is really a heck of lot safer...

Anyone has a thought about that...
For your particular style and fast fingered trading, you can probably make it work for you, but for most of us who take longer to dance, dancing to a trend would be the safest, in my opinion.

-------------------

Okay, the NEW and IMPROVED spreadsheet is ready!!

It is TOTALLY different than the first one, so scrap that first one, since I feel this one is much better.

This one will evaluate/calculate the amount of rescue troops/lots needed based on how many lots you have entered into the dance (the "Actual Lots Traded" column cells). You will need to update this cell as you add/remove troops/lots while you dance, so that the calculations give you accurate data for each rescue you conduct).

Read the instructions carefully and hover your pointer/cursor over red trianged cornered cells for additional comments.

The "Attack Sequence" table is now only a single line and will change when your "Max. Lots Available to Trade" increases accordingly.

There is only 3 Hypothetical Attack sequences for this spreadsheet. It is done in the .1, .1, .2, .3, .5, .8 manner.

This spreadsheet is just a guide in assisting you in however ways you can relate to it, however dancing may differ to each and every tune/song, so as you get good and more experienced, you can bundle sequences like fti does/did in some of his samples (ex: given the 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8 sequence, he sometimes enters 2 immediately instead of 1 then another 1. And for his 1, 1, 2, 16 sequence, if you add up the last 3 numbers in the 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8 sequence (3+5+8) they equal 16.

Anyway, like I said, use it however it suits in assisting you. If you find it a hindrance, then don't use it.

If anybody spots any formula discrepancies, please let me know and I'll fix it. I double-checked it several times to make sure I have it all correct, but sometimes when you work on something too long, you tend to miss things.

Unfortunately, it's still at 1 lot = $10,000 (mini account) and 100:1 leverage. I'm not going to have time to set aside working on this anymore for now, so if somebody else can revise it to accommodate the different leverage sizes, that would be great!

Unfortunately, this one was a little more of a challenge with getting the "Attack Sequence" table to be limited to only one line, so it took me longer than I wanted to work on it

Anyway, ENJOY!
.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Leighs Forex Spreadsheet - Attack & Rescue.xls   448 KB | 1,361 downloads
  • #2,192
  • Apr 3, 2008 9:58pm Apr 3, 2008 9:58pm
Hi,

guys also a note for those trading with efx. I'd suggest you channge to TS or IB once you have the ability to trade in mini lots and dukas/IB once you can trade in std lot.

Actual Comm Rate IB:
Vol > 2B per/mth =$10 per mio
Vol > 1B per/mth = $15 per mio
Vol < 1B per/mth = $20 per mio

Actual Comm Rates Dukascopy:
Vol > 5B per/mth = $10per mio
Vol > 3B per/mth = $14per mio
Vol > 1B per/mth = $17per mio
Vol < 1B per/mth = $18 per mio

@leighswww

thanks! Thats very kind of you.
You been away busy doing this for us?

regards
jest
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  • #2,193
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:16pm Apr 3, 2008 10:16pm
Quoting luSan
Last night a ran a little test...the dollar was in a trench...not much was going on...and I noticed that the fast dance we do did extremmly well... 2 % ROE in 2 hours...Maybe quiet and non-trending market maybe be better for this fast style...Odd, because all the books and gurus tell us to play the trend...and here I am finding out that no trend is really a heck of lot safer...

Anyone has a thought about that...
Lusan,
Thank you for sharing your ideas
I found this ranging dance useful too, but for me there is at least one BUT: it is really easy to trade once if it has at least 25-30 pips range, otherwise it is difficult to follow at least for me.
In reality i think the problem is not in range itself but in spread which is big with oanda.
I need to switch to IB.
Anyway volatility is one of the clues as FTI said. We need to watch volatility before entrance.
it's o'k to win ...
  • #2,194
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:16pm Apr 3, 2008 10:16pm
hi jest,thanks for your comparison table.between,who is TS u mentioned above?
  • #2,195
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:17pm Apr 3, 2008 10:17pm
Quoting jest1081
You been away busy doing this for us?
LOL, it's kept me very busy, yes.

I'm afraid I'm going to be gone for a bit again, as I've got some business to attend to, but I'll check back when I can.

Thanks for the info on Brokers. What's TS stand for?

I'm going to have to check out these brokers thoroughly before switching, because what's worse for me than higher commissions, is bad customer service, and unreliability.

Is TS an ECN?

BTW ... good job on your Ro3K examples. Now those make more sense to me on how one could use it
  • #2,196
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:35pm Apr 3, 2008 10:35pm
Quoting amenlo9
hi jest,thanks for your comparison table.between,who is TS u mentioned above?
Quote
Thanks for the info on Brokers. What's TS stand for?

I'm going to have to check out these brokers thoroughly before switching, because what's worse for me than higher commissions, is bad customer service, and unreliability.

Is TS an ECN?

TS stands for Tradestation.
When they started offering FX, they earn spreads initially (feed from Gain Capital). With the launch of platform 8.3, it seems to me that they have now decided to take the ECN route, though one can dispute how "ecn in nature" they are, since they accept mini lots. If you get to fti's level, he will even question the nature of ECNs lol, and here we are raving abt ECNs.

Anyway, it'll be a worthy switch, TS offers futures and stock trading as well, so you sorta get all in one basket. And their charting is second to none, if one think mt4 is modus ops, wait till you see TS.

Hmm there used to be complaints abt TS cust service but i'm not sure how they are now. More importantly, once you go to the minis/standard lots, you WILL start feeling the pain of commisions, you pay double with efx...for every $1000 in comms paid to efx you save more than 50%(500) with other brokers. SO please consider, hard.

I remember, John Carter (author of Mastering the trade) complaining abt their ordering platform, not sure if they have improved it. He reccomended to use TS as a broker and charter but use Ninjatrader as you default odering platform. I believe ninja trader has the technology to split orders into fragments (good for those who uses fixed skew and trade intraday futures).

So far, i think 'ecn' wise, these guys are offering the most competetive rates. Esp Dukas.
  • #2,197
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:49pm Apr 3, 2008 10:49pm
Quoting jest
TS stands for Tradestation.
Ah.

My husband used TS for a few months for Options several years back and I'm pretty sure he said he paid like around $200/mo. to use their platform. Maybe it's gotten so competitive they no longer charge monthly fees?

I'll definitely check them out. Thanks for the GREAT info, jest!

* Edited - Are you using TS for your live trades?
  • #2,198
  • Edited 11:18pm Apr 3, 2008 10:55pm | Edited 11:18pm
Quoting leighsww
Ah.

My husband used TS for a few months for Options several years back and I'm pretty sure he said he paid like around $200/mo. to use their platform. Maybe it's gotten so competitive they no longer charge monthly fees?

I'll definitely check them out. Thanks for the GREAT info, jest!
Your hubby will be excited if he hears this....
Its now $100. And it will be free IF you can make 1mio in volume per mth.

Thats abt 100mini lots. At the rate that we are going(avg 3-5trades perday), once ur acc can sustain 10,000k as ur scout. Paying for the platform should no longer be an issue.

Platform Fees
http://www.tradestation.com/fees/platform_fees.shtm

Comms (All asset types)
http://www.tradestation.com/fees/All_Asset_Types.shtm

Quote
* Edited - Are you using TS for your live trades?


No not yet, i am seriously considering coz i've been on demo with them. LOL. Initially i have considered using them as a broker for my futures trades.

I have a live account with a few brokers namely EFX (high comms), MFGLOBAL (crazy 1pip comms) and CMC (bad spreads). Its think about time i start funding Tradestation, anyway getting price feeds for stocks and futures are cheap with them too. I'll try to findout if its possible to trade micro lots with them.

I believe a switch to tradestation will be a step forward towards quality.

BTW, have you heard anything from fti?

regards
jest
  • #2,199
  • Apr 4, 2008 5:44am Apr 4, 2008 5:44am
Hi everyone,

Has anyone compiled FTI's teachings in to document form? Particularly the rescuing of troops and such.
The more I learn about forex and hear from the so called guru;s and there 'amazing' systems I feel that there is no substantialy profitable system and that we should resort to Guerrilla Tactics.

There seems to be so many people running around in this arena with bad intentions and the aim or depriving people of their money.... very sadening.

I respect FTI for what hes doing here. Afterall, if his aim was to try and sell us something he would have done it by now.

I started reading this thread months ago and since have fallen in to afew traps, allways coming back to this thread and thinking......... 'is this realy the only way forward'. If it is........ then I hope I can get it rite and make this style work for me.

Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #2,200
  • Apr 4, 2008 8:05am Apr 4, 2008 8:05am
Of course I do not speak for FTI, but my impression was that he doesn't want his teaches to be contained in a document and thus bartered/sold. Besides this way of teaching is way more beneficial then a step by step guide, you get good trading lessons as well as life lessons.

The best advice I can give you, is read through this thread to get the idea of what the MO and MM are, study the structure of the market, pick a round-trip of pairs or 3 kingdoms and then just camp the fast charts trading the MO until you can feel every tick on the chart. Good luck!
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