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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #71,641
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:34pm Apr 2, 2008 3:34pm
Quoting quecee5
U entering short?
not now. at the break of 203.15, I'm planning on sending a scout. Just to get a feel for it. if it works out then i'll add more lots later. As for the target of 206.xx, I think I may have found out why you were looking at that area. Perhaps, you were thinking we are in wave 4 in monthly chart? please correct me if i'm wrong.
  • #71,642
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:35pm Apr 2, 2008 3:35pm
weekly chart .. nice H & S

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  • #71,643
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:37pm Apr 2, 2008 3:37pm
watch for 203.75,if it breaks i ll go long
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  • #71,644
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:41pm Apr 2, 2008 3:41pm
Quoting pkimnyc
not now. at the break of 203.15, I'm planning on sending a scout. Just to get a feel for it. if it works out then i'll add more lots later. As for the target of 206.xx, I think I may have found out why you were looking at that area. Perhaps, you were thinking we are in wave 4 in monthly chart? please correct me if i'm wrong.
Give me a minute I'll post a chart. . .
  • #71,645
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:47pm Apr 2, 2008 3:47pm
Quoting Pinkpanter
watch for 203.75,if it breaks i ll go long
IMO, everything looks to be overbought. perhaps it may drop down a little then head back up? Then again I can be completely wrong. thanks for the heads up.
  • #71,646
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:48pm Apr 2, 2008 3:48pm
Quoting quecee5
Looks to be a pin bar on the 1hr chart. . .

If this hour close below 203.50 then I would think for sure the pin bar would come in to play.
  • #71,647
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:53pm Apr 2, 2008 3:53pm
Quoting pkimnyc
not now. at the break of 203.15, I'm planning on sending a scout. Just to get a feel for it. if it works out then i'll add more lots later. As for the target of 206.xx, I think I may have found out why you were looking at that area. Perhaps, you were thinking we are in wave 4 in monthly chart? please correct me if i'm wrong.
Here are the levels I look at. . . The fib is from the bottom to where the fall began. . . Typically if one is broken then the other is seen at some point. That's why I said if 204.30/50/70 area is broken then there is a good chance that 206 would be seen. Also, 206 is weekly R3 as well, then daily R3 is 207.74 which is 100% retrace from where the fall originated. . .

Hope this helps
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #71,648
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:55pm Apr 2, 2008 3:55pm
Quoting quecee5
Here are the levels I look at. . . The fib is from the bottom to where the fall began. . . Typically if one is broken then the other is seen at some point. That's why I said if 204.30/50/70 area is broken then there is a good chance that 206 would be seen. Also, 206 is weekly R3 as well, then daily R3 is 207.74 which is 100% retrace from where the fall originated. . .

Hope this helps
Nice chart Quecee, plain and simple but says a lot.
  • #71,649
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:55pm Apr 2, 2008 3:55pm
Quoting pkimnyc
IMO, everything looks to be overbought. perhaps it may drop down a little then head back up? Then again I can be completely wrong. thanks for the heads up.
or the price fall we just saw down to 203.20 area could have been the retrace for now. . . retraces can be 50%, 38% or even 23.6% which this was exactly 23.6%. . . We may see price go to 204.30/50 area before going down futher. . .

but I suspect we may go down even further but I guess we'll see. . .
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  • #71,650
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:56pm Apr 2, 2008 3:56pm
Quoting pip_designer
Nice chart Quecee, plain and simple but says a lot.
Thxs bro. . .
  • #71,651
  • Apr 2, 2008 4:03pm Apr 2, 2008 4:03pm
Quoting quecee5
Here are the levels I look at. . . The fib is from the bottom to where the fall began. . . Typically if one is broken then the other is seen at some point. That's why I said if 204.30/50/70 area is broken then there is a good chance that 206 would be seen. Also, 206 is weekly R3 as well, then daily R3 is 207.74 which is 100% retrace from where the fall originated. . .

Hope this helps
Quoting quecee5
or the price fall we just saw down to 203.20 area could have been the retrace for now. . . retraces can be 50%, 38% or even 23.6% which this was exactly 23.6%. . . We may see price go to 204.30/50 area before going down futher. . .
Thanks Q, now I understand why. As for the target of 204.50, do you think it would still be valid even if the daily closes below 203.50, which just did as I was typing?
  • #71,652
  • Apr 2, 2008 4:03pm Apr 2, 2008 4:03pm
Quoting jordan
Hi all.
Looking at the big picture, this whole up movement was caused by price making a double bottom at 192.60 area ( this can be seen on monthly chart).
If you draw a fib extension on last month you will see that price has just touched the 74.6 level.
For me this means that at least a down retracement is due. However, the daily bar still doesn't indicate a strong down reversal so i may consider a retest of the high after a retracement is over.
can't see your chart bro. . .
  • #71,653
  • Apr 2, 2008 4:06pm Apr 2, 2008 4:06pm
Quoting hussin naiji
bi bi 204 bi bi 203 hi 200 hi 199 hi 198 hi 197
hi 194

I don't think we've seen the end of the bulls yet. As per yesterday, my ichimoku cloud is still showing strong signs of more upward movement so I think any moves down will be short lived. I'm hoping for 210+ but we'll see how it goes!
  • #71,654
  • Apr 2, 2008 4:21pm Apr 2, 2008 4:21pm
Quoting quecee5
can't see your chart bro. . .
Something wrong went with FF and they gave a different username.
here is the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #71,655
  • Apr 2, 2008 4:27pm Apr 2, 2008 4:27pm
Quoting pkimnyc
Thanks Q, now I understand why. As for the target of 204.50, do you think it would still be valid even if the daily closes below 203.50, which just did as I was typing?

Well according to the 1hr chart it looks as though a retrace will happen within the next few hours. . . Stoch starting to turn over. . .

Keep an eye out on UJ, if it breaks support 102.20/102.00/101.95 that will be the 1st sign of a significant retrace. If this level bounce and holds then we may see a bit more upside then start to see it turn south. . .
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  • #71,656
  • Apr 2, 2008 4:30pm Apr 2, 2008 4:30pm
Quoting Jor09
Something wrong went with FF and they gave a different username.
here is the chart
  • #71,657
  • Edited 4:49pm Apr 2, 2008 4:39pm | Edited 4:49pm
Okay, I just got my new daily pivots and here it what I see. . .

A 1hr close above 203.50/55 with the next bullish candle opening above the 1st will see 204.60 area. . .

A break and closed below 202.75 area will see 201.50 area before we see any more upside. . . 201.50 is 38% retrace of the entire bullish run, starting from 197 area. . . A 50% retrace down with 5 wave downs would be bearish for this pair. . . We should expect to see 3 waves down (correction) if the bullish upmove is to continue.

Just my two cents. . .
  • #71,658
  • Apr 2, 2008 4:52pm Apr 2, 2008 4:52pm
Quoting quecee5
Okay, I just got my new daily pivots and here it what I see. . .

A 1hr close above 203.50/55 with the next bullish candle opening above the 1st will see 204.60 area. . .

A break and closed below 202.75 area will see 201.50 area before we see any more upside. . . 201.50 is 38% retrace of the entire bullish run, starting from 197 area. . . A 50% retrace down with 5 wave downs would be bearish for this pair. . . We should expect to see 3 waves down (correction) if the bullish upmove is to continue.

Just my two cents. . .
Hi Q.!Sorry for the artless question but,why 5 waves down is a bearish sign?
  • #71,659
  • Apr 2, 2008 4:59pm Apr 2, 2008 4:59pm
Quoting I.Y.I
Hi Q.!Sorry for the artless question but,why 5 waves down is a bearish sign?
That's the rule's of Elliot wave theory. . .

Typically if a bull run has ended we would see 5 waves down then the correction would be 3 waves up (up, down, up), then u would continue with that trend which would be down. . .

Now in our case the trend seems to be up (for now or short term) so if the trend is to continue we should see a 3 wave correction down (down up, down), then it should continue with the main trend which in our case we hope is up. . . (then you would see 5 waves up to complete that wave cycles. . .

Hope this helps. . .
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  • #71,660
  • Apr 2, 2008 5:06pm Apr 2, 2008 5:06pm
Quoting quecee5
That's the rule's of Elliot wave theory. . .

Typically if a bull run has ended we would see 5 waves down then the correction would be 3 waves up (up, down, up), then u would continue with that trend which would be down. . .

Now in our case the trend seems to be up (for now or short term) so if the trend is to continue we should see a 3 wave correction down (down up, down), then it should continue with the main trend which in our case we hope is up. . . (then you would see 5 waves up to complete that wave cycles. . .

Hope this helps. . .
I see now.Thanks bro
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