Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

Quoting pkimnyc

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I had a conversation with one of my friends who trades stock. He told me that the reason for the rally yesterday was because of the begining of the 2nd Qt. New money being invested , and usually lasts about 2-3 days. Therefore expect the rally for 2 days at least, then possible sell off (vix indicator was @ low (can't remember the exact number)).

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Quoting pkimnyc

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closed my shorts. going long from here (for the time being). thanks for the heads up Q.

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Quoting quecee5

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Yep, I expect it to last to the end of the week since NFP is due out on Friday. We may see very limited pull backs if any at all, that's why I'm adding to my position as GJ overcomes key resistance. . .

Next resistance @ 203.85/90 area, lets see what happens. . .

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Quoting quecee5

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Yep = GJ a beast right now, best to trade with the trend. . .

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Quoting Scrat

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before you all go hog wild opening long positions, let me show you this daily chart.
as you can see, we are very close to the daily trendline (which seems to be a strong one, look what happened in the past when price came close to it). also, i put an horizontal line to show you the former support at 204.56, which i expect to act as resistance now.
keep in mind that this pair is already OB (look at CCI), and the whole picture looks like a huge bearish hidden divergence waiting to kick in.
my guess is that we will stop at 204.50 area (or at least, today's close will be in this range) and then... bang. another drop.

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Quoting DutchTrader

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Scrat,

I like your analysis, I don't believe anyone here, least not that I've seen, is advocating a huge bull run. Actually 204.50/205.00 have been the targets bandied about in these parts. So we're all on the same page, or so it would appear from your chart

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Quoting quecee5

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Here is the resistance levels I'm looking at. .
4hr chart for u

Weekly S2 - 203.86
Daily S2 - 204.75
Weekly R3 - 205.92
Daily R3 - 207.75/208 (if it gets that's high which is possible)

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Quoting Scrat

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before you all go hog wild opening long positions, let me show you this daily chart.
as you can see, we are very close to the daily trendline (which seems to be a strong one, look what happened in the past when price came close to it). also, i put an horizontal line to show you the former support at 204.56, which i expect to act as resistance now.
keep in mind that this pair is already OB (look at CCI), and the whole picture looks like a huge bearish hidden divergence waiting to kick in.
my guess is that we will stop at 204.50 area (or at least, today's close will be in this range) and then... bang. another drop.

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Quoting DutchTrader

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Scrat,

I like your analysis, I don't believe anyone here, least not that I've seen, is advocating a huge bull run. Actually 204.50/205.00 have been the targets bandied about in these parts. So we're all on the same page, or so it would appear from your chart

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Quoting Scrat

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before you all go hog wild opening long positions, let me show you this daily chart.
as you can see, we are very close to the daily trendline (which seems to be a strong one, look what happened in the past when price came close to it). also, i put an horizontal line to show you the former support at 204.56, which i expect to act as resistance now.
keep in mind that this pair is already OB (look at CCI), and the whole picture looks like a huge bearish hidden divergence waiting to kick in.
my guess is that we will stop at 204.50 area (or at least, today's close will be in this range) and then... bang. another drop.

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Quoting Scrat

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before you all go hog wild opening long positions, let me show you this daily chart.
as you can see, we are very close to the daily trendline (which seems to be a strong one, look what happened in the past when price came close to it). also, i put an horizontal line to show you the former support at 204.56, which i expect to act as resistance now.
keep in mind that this pair is already OB (look at CCI), and the whole picture looks like a huge bearish hidden divergence waiting to kick in.
my guess is that we will stop at 204.50 area (or at least, today's close will be in this range) and then... bang. another drop.

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Quoting danryman78

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hi que
you are right but i think before we reach to your targets we should touch daily resistance around 202.80

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Quoting pkimnyc

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Thanks Scrat,

My target area is around 204.5 also. I'm not expecting a major rally from this point and about the major drop, I'm with you on that one. but in the mean time, +100 or 150 is way better than -. Thanks for the heads up.

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Quoting quecee5

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Agreed =

But I wouldn't start opening shorts either as we can not predict tops and Stoch/CCI can be in OB for a while and price continue to go up. . .

See chart below which shows that price has plenty of room to move up on a daily. Notice how it hasn't even reached the 50 line yet. . .

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Quoting Scrat

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there's not that much room up; my limit is @ 204.50 area (so it's less than 100 pips from now). a daily close above that would screw up big time everyone's analysis because it would mean a possible breakout from the daily downtrend and (at least) a retrace to a fibo level such as 211.xx (if not 217 or 222) ... which seems very unlikely at this moment.
but never say never. we'll see.

p.s. today's close @ ~ 204.50 area doesn't exclude a nice spike higher than that.
as for oscillators being OB, yes, i agree with you. but they usually form divergences (which can also be spotted very nicely on lower timeframes) and when you combine them with trendline breakouts... well, what can i say, the entries are very good. at least for me.

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Quoting Scrat

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ok, so you all agree with me... that's not good at all. i'm going long right now!!!

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