trading with fundamentals is the only way to go 129 replies
Here's a REALLY SILLY question! 9 replies
DislikedNot 10 years.... more like the next year or two, with an expected 100% return.
There is a lower limit to how far the USD can fall. Could we see the USDCHF at 0.50? I don't think it is possible unless there are more terrorist attacks on US soil.
So a 5,000 pip stoploss with a cash out at 1.50 would be the general idea.Ignored
DislikedUSD/CHF on 1 to 1 each pip is worth $10.
When chf doubles compared to usd each pip will worth $20, so you will be down $10,000 not $5000. and if USD is worth only 1/4 CHF you will be down 30,000 and so forth.
Remember that you invest $100,000 for every standard lot so if $100,000 is worth nothing you have lost $100,000. Of course margin will kick you out much earlier.
Correct me if I am wrong in these calculations.Ignored
Dislikedtdion, what type of return are you looking at? My feeling is that
as soon as the world says the dollar is worthless, you will see an improvment. so you probably are right...but how long do you hold! before it goes in the tank again.Ignored
Dislikedi agree on the idea that fundamentalist might survive with a proper averaging
but totally disagree in the idea that analyst bound to fail
i can even teach someone who doesn't know new york is in the US how to trade with high winning percentage
also being a fundamentalist requires large capital in order to gain meaningful profit (it depends on one's goal though)
I still love being intraday short - medium term as the ROI is high and I believe I'm good at it
one just need to find the right strategy for him/herself that's that
DislikedThe direction of the dollar in the next 5 years should be pretty easy to figured out. Simple supply and demand will tell you that. The Fed has "printed" something like 4.3 trillion dollars in the last 2 years. Said differently gold and oil prices are not high...the dollar is just really low! And if someone like MCcain is elected it doesn't seem that war and the over spending will come to an end anytime soon. Added to this is the flow of retiring babyboomers over the next 10+ years. Where will all the money come from to pay for all this??? Maybe the Fed will continue to devalue the dollar...I mean cut interest rates!!Ignored
DislikedWhat if in the worst case scenario, Switzerland decides to completely forfeit their currency and use only Euro. The broker will cancel your trade and take all your money.Ignored
DislikedWhat if in the worst case scenario, Switzerland decides to completely forfeit their currency and use only Euro. The broker will cancel your trade and take all your money.
DislikedUnlike buying actual currency notes or bars of gold or stocks, highly leveraged accounts can really bite you.
I am looking at the USDCHF as a long term play right now, long position. The bet is that the dollar will strengthen. There is positive daily swap on the long.
The pair is at 30 year lows. I think that averaging down would be a good play too, if USD keeps weakening.
The beauty of the trade is that the pair can only fall 10,000 more pips. Before you laugh, think about it.... only 10,000 down to zero, but climb up to whatever the upper PPP bound is.
This is an INVESTMENT instead of a trade.... a stop of around 2,500 pips or more for me.... maybe 10% of my account at risk. If the pair keeps falling, I might average in another 20% with a new 2,500 pip stop.
I mean, this is the USA we are talking about, not a penny stock. My bet is that the dollar strengthens with a new president and a victory or withdrawal in Iraq. The Bear Stearns take over had little impact, although it was rather devastating news. It can get worse. The US can go into a depression. But that's why averaging in is key. I'm not trying to call a bottom.Ignored
Dislikedthis is not a "i have ability to call trades right" post but....
up 450 pips from me starting the thread.... as luck would have itIgnored