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Part Time Wealth Building Trading System - Weekly Scalping

  • #421
  • Jan 19, 2007 3:53pm Jan 19, 2007 3:53pm
Very Nice!!

Quoting Daemien
+285 pips this week on GBP/JPY. Slightly modified (took profit @ around 160 and then re-entered)...

Hope the trends keep trending!

D.
  • #422
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:14pm Jan 19, 2007 4:14pm
I'm experimenting trying to write an EA for this method with limited success. The problem seems to arise if both orders are stopped out. I just want to clarify I'm following the system correctly.

I've attached two images that should make it clearer what the problem is.


Thanks

Lux
Attached Images
MT4 EA, Indicator and Alert Coder Since 2006
  • #423
  • Jan 19, 2007 10:36pm Jan 19, 2007 10:36pm
I just learned of this forum and this thread this week and this method looks like it has great potential. I watched it through the week and using the initial method resulted in being stopped out on two trades at a cost of 60 pips, with a final net result of 40 pips once the spread is removed. I use Oanda and they widen their spread at about Noon on Friday to ten pips on the GBP/USD pair, so I calculated it for a Noon exit. I also backtested the modified version shown in this thread, based on the price at Sunday's close (Midnight EST) with a 21 pip straddle (42 pip range) and 40 pip stop loss and saw that the trade would not have been stopped out all week with a final result of 116 pips after the spread. Not bad at all! Thanks TKimble - I will try it next week with a few units and see what happens!
  • #424
  • Jan 19, 2007 11:04pm Jan 19, 2007 11:04pm
This was another great week for this system.

Trading GBP/USD and GBP/Yen

Using same parameters plus my trend filter i wrote about earlier.

GBP/ USD

Last week Close: 9589

Trade 1: Long - Stopped out ....-30 Pips - 3 PIp spread = -33 pip
Trade 2: Long = + 99 pis - 3 pip spread = +96

Total GBP = 63 pips


GBP/Yen

Last week Close ; close 235.69

Trade 1: System short. Filter say to pass....so don't take.
Trade 2: Long = 361 pips- 9 pip spread = 352 Pips

Total is 352 Pips. If you took the first trade you would subtract 39 pips, in any case....it doesn't get much better.

From a trade management standpoint it wasn't much harder to management both these vs. only one. I leave stops as is TKimble does. For me, i don't bank on any profit until the week is done. Try not to look too much as in the past i often close a trade just out of fear of potential loss. Each week i hope to be able to trust this system more and more. Last 2 weeks have been extraordinary.


Good Trading,

Jim No
  • #425
  • Jan 19, 2007 11:09pm Jan 19, 2007 11:09pm
for you! You netted more than most would in 2 months in two weeks!
Wonder what filter you might be using? The SRDC trendlines? I saw that they would have kept you in, in the GBP/Yen. Great stuff!



Quoting james275
This was another great week for this system.

Trading GBP/USD and GBP/Yen

Using same parameters plus my trend filter i wrote about earlier.

GBP/ USD

Last week Close: 9589

Trade 1: Long - Stopped out ....-30 Pips - 3 PIp spread = -33 pip
Trade 2: Long = + 99 pis - 3 pip spread = +96

Total GBP = 63 pips


GBP/Yen

Last week Close ; close 235.69

Trade 1: System short. Filter say to pass....so don't take.
Trade 2: Long = 361 pips- 9 pip spread = 352 Pips

Total is 352 Pips. If you took the first trade you would subtract 39 pips, in any case....it doesn't get much better.

From a trade management standpoint it wasn't much harder to management both these vs. only one. I leave stops as is TKimble does. For me, i don't bank on any profit until the week is done. Try not to look too much as in the past i often close a trade just out of fear of potential loss. Each week i hope to be able to trust this system more and more. Last 2 weeks have been extraordinary.


Good Trading,

Jim No
  • #426
  • Jan 20, 2007 12:26am Jan 20, 2007 12:26am
Quoting MillerHighLife
P.S. TK, the minute you finish up that daily system, let us know. I know I'm not the only one eagerly awaiting it!
The daily system is nothing more than an extension of the weekly system. The biggest difference is the use of a daily chart instead of a weekly chart and tighter entry points...

Tkimble
  • #427
  • Jan 20, 2007 12:28am Jan 20, 2007 12:28am
Quoting james275
This was another great week for this system.

Trading GBP/USD and GBP/Yen

Using same parameters plus my trend filter i wrote about earlier.

GBP/ USD

Last week Close: 9589

Trade 1: Long - Stopped out ....-30 Pips - 3 PIp spread = -33 pip
Trade 2: Long = + 99 pis - 3 pip spread = +96

Total GBP = 63 pips


GBP/Yen

Last week Close ; close 235.69

Trade 1: System short. Filter say to pass....so don't take.
Trade 2: Long = 361 pips- 9 pip spread = 352 Pips

Total is 352 Pips. If you took the first trade you would subtract 39 pips, in any case....it doesn't get much better.

From a trade management standpoint it wasn't much harder to management both these vs. only one. I leave stops as is TKimble does. For me, i don't bank on any profit until the week is done. Try not to look too much as in the past i often close a trade just out of fear of potential loss. Each week i hope to be able to trust this system more and more. Last 2 weeks have been extraordinary.


Good Trading,

Jim No
Consistency builds confidence. Stick with the rules and you will do very well...

Tkimble
  • #428
  • Jan 20, 2007 5:07am Jan 20, 2007 5:07am
Quoting luxinterior
I'm experimenting trying to write an EA for this method with limited success. The problem seems to arise if both orders are stopped out. I just want to clarify I'm following the system correctly.

I've attached two images that should make it clearer what the problem is.


Thanks

Lux
How frequently did this kind of situation repeat itself according to your backtest?

Would you mind posting your EA here for testing?
  • #429
  • Jan 20, 2007 7:03am Jan 20, 2007 7:03am
well, i've just read through this thread from start to finish.... phew!
not as big as that other one with thousands of posts.

i will be giving this strategy a go and i will be following tkimble's "rules" strictly. he developed this..it works.. and from what i can gather from his posts, our current psychologies are similar... about simplicity and (can't remember his exact terms, but generally...) accepting drawdowns knowing that the system profits in the end..

i have read a few people saying they it's great that people are making the system better... i think the better way to look at it is... it's great that they are taking a good system and making it suit their style (as long as it still profits, it profits.)

i can see though why a lot of newcomers would be confused about the system as there are a lot of people putting their amendments in, which could "scramble" some people. i guess the lesson is, spend the time, read all the posts, all the answers are there.

well... have a great week everyone.
  • #430
  • Jan 20, 2007 8:09am Jan 20, 2007 8:09am
Hi Ryan,

As with any system, this one has it's limitations - hence people trying to minimize the area(s) that they see as a problem. The GBP/JPY had four consecutive months of major losses (over 1000pips over a four month period) with very few positive weeks during this time. Going through this period live, I doubt the majority of people here would survive the psychological aspect of this long of a drawdown period. For myself, I know I would probably start wondering after a month or two of large losses... then I would start panicking after another month and probably start looking at another system. An experienced trader would probably fare differently I'm sure, but I would hazard a guess that most on these forums are not overly 'experienced'.

FYI, even with these losses, the original 'Tkimble Weekly' still made over 2000pips by the end of 2006 on GBP/JPY! Pretty darn good!

Good luck in your trades!

D.

Quoting ryanmel
well, i've just read through this thread from start to finish.... phew!
not as big as that other one with thousands of posts.

i will be giving this strategy a go and i will be following tkimble's "rules" strictly. he developed this..it works.. and from what i can gather from his posts, our current psychologies are similar... about simplicity and (can't remember his exact terms, but generally...) accepting drawdowns knowing that the system profits in the end..

i have read a few people saying they it's great that people are making the system better... i think the better way to look at it is... it's great that they are taking a good system and making it suit their style (as long as it still profits, it profits.)

i can see though why a lot of newcomers would be confused about the system as there are a lot of people putting their amendments in, which could "scramble" some people. i guess the lesson is, spend the time, read all the posts, all the answers are there.

well... have a great week everyone.
  • #431
  • Jan 20, 2007 8:41am Jan 20, 2007 8:41am
Quoting tkimble
The daily system is nothing more than an extension of the weekly system. The biggest difference is the use of a daily chart instead of a weekly chart and tighter entry points...

Tkimble
Tighter entry points meaning lower targets above and below finish price and tighter SL's? Thanks Tkimble!
  • #432
  • Jan 20, 2007 11:39am Jan 20, 2007 11:39am
Well, I have thoroughly gone through 2006 taking profit in 160 pip increments. The first half of the year was a huge improvement. The second half, however, bombed out. Where the original system was taking advantage of huge trending gains, the method I tested gained a bit, & then was chopped out a lot in the mid to end of the week posting many losses.

Thank goodness for the ability to backtest

I am thinking that the best way to overcome this is to somehow find a way to stay out of the market during these periods (or to take very small lots once or twice during the week & then stay out for the remainder). Perhaps after a week of 'consolidation' on the hourly or daily (where we would have posted a loss), we should be looking at resistance/support levels until a trend proves itself?

Any other ideas?

For those currently trading the GBP/USD using this system, I would like to add that it suffered similarly during 2006... so if you are live, be prepared!

Good luck!

D.
  • #433
  • Jan 20, 2007 2:33pm Jan 20, 2007 2:33pm
First, a BIG THANKS!!! to Tkimble for sharing this and that big eye opener of a spreadsheet on Money Management, and to all those contributing to this thread.

I love this system and it's simplicity! However, as noted it does struggle in choppy markets. As a long time lurker I've found, as most of you have, that no system does well in all types of markets. The market is only going to do one of 3 things: Trend, Oscilate (wide ranging), or Channel (narrow ranging,chopy). So I guess the first thing is to identify what type of market we are currently in.

If Trending leave the system alone!

If Oscillating leave alone or possibly add James275's idea of using the 4hr chart as a guide: take the trade if it's in the direction of the 4hr trend or trendless, but no trade if it is opposite the 4hr trend as it is likley to be at the top of the oscillation and moving back the other way.

So what to do if it's Chopy??? Maybe use Daemien's idea of taking out relativly smaller predefined bites, 100-160, and re-enter at the current price with a new stoploss around the original 30 pips to protect profits and possibly catch the rest if it starts trending again.

Other ideas...
Add a RSI indicator for these times and only take trade if it's showing some strength.

Increase straddle to recent support & resistance areas plus a few pips so were only trading breakouts of these times.

It also occurs to me that choppy markets tend to be consolodation periods. In which case, chart patterns (Triangles, flags, wedges, ect.) should be forming on the daily and 4hr charts. Durring these chopy weeks only, we could look to the lower charts to identify the consolodation patern and place straddle according to the pattern instead of close price with stops placed on the other side of pattern as a pattern failure.

Daemien, Could you please post the weeks (dates) that didn't perform well when you get a chance??

Perhaps if we focus on how to trade these chopy weeks as a group we can make that Great Year Round stratagy. What do they call that again?? The Holy...???
Well anyway, Thanks again to all & Hope this helps in some way! Good Luck!

J.P.
Watching the charts like Spock.
  • #434
  • Jan 20, 2007 7:54pm Jan 20, 2007 7:54pm
If you could find a system that gave you (on average) "x" pips per week/month, and that "x" added up to your goal pips/$$ for the year, why would you bother trying to pick changes in market behaviour and starting new systems? Trade less, less stress, better lifestyle.

Having said that, if you have a good scalping system, and a good trending system, and you trade both simultaneously, while your trending strategy may not be profitable all year round, the scalping system (be it intraday, daily or weekly depending on your own style) should fill the void in the quiet times, and add cream to the pie when both systems are firing.

my 2c.

there is always the other option, compounding... stick it out for 2 or 3 years on a successful system, and you will be pulling in enough $ per lot each week/month to not even worry about it anymore... "hmmm, i've made $$$$$ this year so far, i might just sit back and wait for the market to start trending again" it's always a good time to start creating/demo-trading other systems if you are like me and really enjoy charts and patterns.
  • #435
  • Jan 20, 2007 7:55pm Jan 20, 2007 7:55pm
Quoting JPinSD
First, a BIG THANKS!!! to Tkimble for sharing this and that big eye opener of a spreadsheet on Money Management, and to all those contributing to this thread.

I love this system and it's simplicity! However, as noted it does struggle in choppy markets. As a long time lurker I've found, as most of you have, that no system does well in all types of markets. The market is only going to do one of 3 things: Trend, Oscilate (wide ranging), or Channel (narrow ranging,chopy). So I guess the first thing is to identify what type of market we are currently in.

If Trending leave the system alone!

If Oscillating leave alone or possibly add James275's idea of using the 4hr chart as a guide: take the trade if it's in the direction of the 4hr trend or trendless, but no trade if it is opposite the 4hr trend as it is likley to be at the top of the oscillation and moving back the other way.

So what to do if it's Chopy??? Maybe use Daemien's idea of taking out relativly smaller predefined bites, 100-160, and re-enter at the current price with a new stoploss around the original 30 pips to protect profits and possibly catch the rest if it starts trending again.

Other ideas...
Add a RSI indicator for these times and only take trade if it's showing some strength.

Increase straddle to recent support & resistance areas plus a few pips so were only trading breakouts of these times.

It also occurs to me that choppy markets tend to be consolodation periods. In which case, chart patterns (Triangles, flags, wedges, ect.) should be forming on the daily and 4hr charts. Durring these chopy weeks only, we could look to the lower charts to identify the consolodation patern and place straddle according to the pattern instead of close price with stops placed on the other side of pattern as a pattern failure.

Daemien, Could you please post the weeks (dates) that didn't perform well when you get a chance??

Perhaps if we focus on how to trade these chopy weeks as a group we can make that Great Year Round stratagy. What do they call that again?? The Holy...???
Well anyway, Thanks again to all & Hope this helps in some way! Good Luck!

J.P.
Well put JP. Over all when we really own the fact that dispite the bad weeks, the system made over 2000 pips (per Daemien, and thank you for your hard work!) we should work to just trade the system, taking the good weeks with the bad . If we didn't worry about the down side, trading one standard unit, would net us good profits. Anything wrong with that?

But we all like the challenge of making a good system better... so i agree that hopefully together we can do that. But for me it is vital that it remains easy and simple.

I was always thinking that there were Two kinds of weeks, trending and oscillating. But JP has a good point between large oscillations and the smaller ones. I think The trending bars are clear. Indeed how do we trade the rest without losing the benefit of the system....hmmmm.

I do use a trending filter on a 4 hr chart. But to nix a trade, it has to be a strong trend opposite the trend. My experience is that while some corrections occur opposite this trending, but it ususlly just doesn't last (especially over a one week period) so the trade may show a short term gain, but bottom line i don't think it will have legs over the period of a week.

Couple other things i'm looking at for consideration by all. Looking at chart patterns on the Monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hr charts. For instance, as a part of my normal trading system, i use a double top or bottom failure before taking a trade in a new direction. Part of that is looking at support and resistance. For instance, looking at the monthly GBP chart we are at a clear top made in Nov 2004. What to do with that info is something else. Again...i don't want to make it too hard. But i do look at this and i think discretionary passing certain trades may be something we just have to do.

One other thought is stop management. I am looking at using fractal stops on the 4 hr. Actually trailing the trade by 2 fractals. This might help in the "large" oscillations. Maybe after we enter and have gone through one minor correction leaving a fractal, we move up our stop to that point for the rest of the week. If a third fractal is made, then move the stop up one. If the stop is hit, then i sit out the rest of the week. On the trending weeks, the stop most likely won't be hit.

You guys are great to brain storm with. I'm having a lot of fun with this.

Good Trading,

Jim no
  • #436
  • Jan 20, 2007 9:07pm Jan 20, 2007 9:07pm
for those that don't like the idea of being up 150 pips mid week to see it come up -30 by close, and this is just an idea.. you could try using say, 3 lots, and take 2 lots at 100 pips and leave the third as per the original rules. or 1 lot at 100, 2 lots running. a way of taking something, but leaving something.
  • #437
  • Jan 20, 2007 11:33pm Jan 20, 2007 11:33pm
It might be just easier to move the stop to B/E or even positive a couple pips if you're far enough into the black. At least you'll know you won't end up with another losing trade.
  • #438
  • Jan 21, 2007 5:54am Jan 21, 2007 5:54am
gbpusd

on fxdd it is 1.9735 with long entry at 1.9785 and short at 1.9685

for gbpjpy (for those who will take friday close,me included) it is 239.21 long 239.71, short 238.71
  • #439
  • Jan 21, 2007 9:21am Jan 21, 2007 9:21am
is anybody using ibfx? Anyway, last week:

buy stop 1.9635
Sell stop 1.9535

First buy stop hit and got stop out with -30 pips. Adjusted sell stop to 1.9585 (closing for previous week). Price dropped to 1.9589 and thus sell stop was never triggered. In the end I did not trade anymore. Should I have traded at 1.9635 again which would have netted me 101 pips(1.9736)? If I remember correctly, tkimble said to trade in 50 pip range if one order was hit. The question is since the sell order was not hit should I have gotten in at 1.9635 or just leave it as it is since nothing was triggered... just wondering
  • #440
  • Jan 21, 2007 9:43am Jan 21, 2007 9:43am
Hello,

This thread looks great, it might be mentioned is one of the pages, but i must have missed it.

What time are you logging as 'the end of the week' , EST?

Just wondering as i wanted to get a trade going today for the week
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