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  • #1,321
  • Mar 30, 2008 11:06am Mar 30, 2008 11:06am
Quoting malcolmb14
Sorry to be so harsh , but i would not be shorting so close to major support before a close on the weekend. Instead i would have waited it out till Sunday and then seen what the market gave me.

I think you may see that gap , but to the upside.

Higher level time frames are pointing to a bounce. I expect 199.82 to be test of bottom of that triangle and 50% fib retracement of 201.71 to 197.22 however it could only test 38.2% at 199.12.

Attachment
I sure hope it tests higher than that as I still have a couple longs at 199.11 .

If you can imagine that. I was hoping 199.20 was going to hold as support.
Now it seems 197.50 should be a bit stonger of a support point. Especially since on the 15MIN GJ looks to have already bounced from the bottom
and is heading up slightly from a bullish doji on the bottom right?

I'd like to get out of this trade a bit better than even or SQR for a small loss.
Malcolmb do you ever look at the 3hour GJ chart?
  • #1,322
  • Mar 30, 2008 12:22pm Mar 30, 2008 12:22pm
malcolmb14, thanks for posting your thoughts and charts here so others may learn your thought process behind your trades. i have read your posts here and in other threads but i do not remember if you described how you draw your fib retracements and expansions. i have read that they can be drawn different ways and would like to know if you could describe, in simple terms, your process for drawing them.
  • #1,323
  • Mar 30, 2008 12:26pm Mar 30, 2008 12:26pm
One hour ago price was showing at 198.53 - 198.61 , now it is showing 197.59?? Where were it open and will it go up or down?, time will tell...

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm

Paul
  • #1,324
  • Mar 30, 2008 12:45pm Mar 30, 2008 12:45pm
TO ALL THOSE WHO CAN PREDICT GAPS .

I'LL GIVE YOU, OH YES I'LL GIVE YOU MY WIFE.

  • #1,325
  • Mar 30, 2008 12:46pm Mar 30, 2008 12:46pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Sorry to be so harsh , but i would not be shorting so close to major support before a close on the weekend. Instead i would have waited it out till Sunday and then seen what the market gave me.

I think you may see that gap , but to the upside.

Higher level time frames are pointing to a bounce. I expect 199.82 to be test of bottom of that triangle and 50% fib retracement of 201.71 to 197.22 however it could only test 38.2% at 199.12.

Attachment
Thanks, but what would you do?Close the position right after the opening or wait?
  • #1,326
  • Mar 30, 2008 2:33pm Mar 30, 2008 2:33pm
Quoting crashout
TO ALL THOSE WHO CAN PREDICT GAPS .

I'LL GIVE YOU, OH YES I'LL GIVE YOU MY WIFE.

Please post a picture of your wife... then I will tell you if i can predict gaps

Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,327
  • Mar 30, 2008 2:34pm Mar 30, 2008 2:34pm
Quoting Küster
Thanks, but what would you do?Close the position right after the opening or wait?
Right now I am showing +32 pips on fxcm

but reality is this means nothing till market opens later.

I do not know why traders look at forex over the weekend , the prices mean nothing until the volume comes in. That is not until later today.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,328
  • Mar 30, 2008 4:19pm Mar 30, 2008 4:19pm
Hi traders wish u all had a good weekend.
ATM i watch closely see if GJ break 197.4 if not i might long with small lot n tight SL. IMO we could see some retrace back to 199.2 b4 another dive.
Just my 2censt
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.gif Size: 18 KB
Sometimes in order to see the light, you have to risk the dark
  • #1,329
  • Mar 30, 2008 4:23pm Mar 30, 2008 4:23pm
Quoting malcolmb14
The move today was very bearish for 2 reasons:

1)we broke the bottom of the falling wedge
2) within the wedge there are 2 other patterns that have failed , a double top and an ascending triangle.

I think we will see 500 pips lower by end of next week .

3 hour chart

Attachment
Something about 180 minutes that always seem to shed more light on what could happen. I for one sure hope 197.40 can hold
  • #1,330
  • Mar 30, 2008 4:26pm Mar 30, 2008 4:26pm
could go either way I think. TOo bad I am still in long from last week.
It would be wiser to see which way its going before getting in.
  • #1,331
  • Mar 30, 2008 4:27pm Mar 30, 2008 4:27pm
Quoting johnchia
Hi traders wish u all had a good weekend.
ATM i watch closely see if GJ break 197.4 if not i might long with small lot n tight SL. IMO we could see some retrace back to 199.2 b4 another dive.
Just my 2censt
Dont get me wrong in long term i still see bear > bull. IMO just some retrace b4 another big move. Put my buy limiy at 197.4 SL 197.2 TP 198.5
Sometimes in order to see the light, you have to risk the dark
  • #1,332
  • Mar 30, 2008 4:29pm Mar 30, 2008 4:29pm
Quoting rrram2
could go either way I think. TOo bad I am still in long from last week.
It would be wiser to see which way its going before getting in.
u r not alone my friend ... i am long too with 2 lots !! lets see what happens !! i had it hedged, just to be on safe side !

Goodbadmas
  • #1,333
  • Mar 30, 2008 4:33pm Mar 30, 2008 4:33pm
In the other hand i see a good short entry if GJ break 197.2 n my TP will be 196.2
Sometimes in order to see the light, you have to risk the dark
  • #1,334
  • Mar 30, 2008 4:47pm Mar 30, 2008 4:47pm
If it convincingly breaks the 197.50 area of support, would be very nice to go short for 100 - 200 pips move.
  • #1,335
  • Mar 30, 2008 4:56pm Mar 30, 2008 4:56pm
some traders have an ROI indicators on their charts could anyone tell me what thay are and haw to get them.
Price does what price wants , I just need to be prepared.
  • #1,336
  • Mar 30, 2008 4:58pm Mar 30, 2008 4:58pm
Quoting malcolmb14
There are 2 possible scenarios , that we will have to wait until Sunday to see which plays out

1) 197.5 forms a double bottom and we retrace up to 50% of the move form Thursday / Friday at 199.62

2) we drop under support and continue to the downside. with targets of :

197.22
196.33
195.36
193.78


I am favouring scenario 1 at the moment due to the rapid rsi being oversold on 30 , 60 and 2 hour time frames , unless there us any bad news out on Sunday , this is the most likely scenario.

We dropped out of the bottom of the falling wedge and have yet to test it.

Attachment
scenario 2 playing out ,
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,337
  • Mar 30, 2008 4:59pm Mar 30, 2008 4:59pm
Why would anyone long?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,338
  • Mar 30, 2008 5:00pm Mar 30, 2008 5:00pm
Quoting PJkiller
some traders have an ROI indicators on their charts could anyone tell me what thay are and haw to get them.
RSI or ROI ? i dont have ROI in my platform either
Sometimes in order to see the light, you have to risk the dark
  • #1,339
  • Mar 30, 2008 5:01pm Mar 30, 2008 5:01pm
Quoting malcolmb14
scenario 2 playing out ,
Did anyone go short yet? Just curious as am still waiting for more confirmation.
  • #1,340
  • Mar 30, 2008 5:06pm Mar 30, 2008 5:06pm
Short from 198 and will add more.
alot of reading this weekend and hard to find a positive article about any index anywhere.
History is written by the victors.
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