Menu
Sister Sites

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Print Thread

Similar Threads

Why are we afraid of simplicity? 96 replies

Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication 814 replies

Signals for Simplicity 1,144 replies

Elite's Simplicity: Cognitive Process of Technical Analysis (The holy enlightenment) 21 replies

The Journal of Simplicity Trade 12 replies

Attachments: Simplicity is the ultimate form of sophistication ( Elite )
Exit Attachments

Simplicity is the ultimate form of sophistication ( Elite )

could somebody help me on with backtesting data, i am searching quality one good for testing this system, i tried to found the data from ibfx, northfinance... but no luck finding any download link
you mentioned ibfx , so this assumes your using metatrader..... the platform should have ample data 'as is' ...... you can force download more historical quotes by using the left arrow..... it will scroll to the left of the chart, just keep clicking the arrow to download....

if your lookin for much more history, you can download from several data banks..... alpari is a pretty good one i use..... http://www.alpari-idc.com/en/dc/databank.html

you'll need to use the period convertor to convert the minute data to higher timeframes and then import into your history folder....

if your new to backtesting a point worth noting..... it's best to use a separate platform for backtesting..... you can have any number of platforms on your computers, so having a special platform for alpari will assure the differing broker quotes don't mix.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
Quoting kenmania
For people looking for a "hard exit" rule, you might check out TEB's simple system thread. I've used a combination of other methods with TEB's method and it works very well. I'm amazed at how often both of the targets are hit, especially on the lower time frames.

Here's a chart with showing yesterday's short signal on the USDJPY 1 hour chart from the Elite system, and TEB's Fibonnaci tool that shows the potential exits. One exit has already been taken out for 41 pips. I'd be shocked if the second exit isn't taken out also for an additional 41.

TEB's method gets the "planned" exit, but I believe 9 times out of ten Elite will get you in the trade sooner. (just my opinion...haven't extensively backtested it).

We can watch this trade and see how many (if any) pips are left on the table.
Hi, I am just wondering if you would be kind enough to post the sup/res indicator on your chart. It would be very usefull for me to use the code in an EA im currently making.

Chears in advance!

LoLo
Hi Waterflame !

Congratulations for introducing this method.
I'm trading this for a longer time and I'm satisfied with the results.
In the long term it's not possible to run an EA because you get too many
losses in a ranging market.

I'd tested this and was not successful ;-(

So folks trade this system manually and if you could handle it by
paying attention to money management and discipline, this will be
a gold mine !!

Just my 2 cents.

P.S. Waterflame could you post the indicator which is showing market
open and close by drawing coloured vertical lines ?
Thanks in advance and happy trading ;-))
I am sure you can develop an profitable EA for this as well. You need something like an artificial neural network (ANN) that will take care of market vibes to be successfull long-term with the EA, otherwise no chance.
Quoting LoLoAC
Hi, I am just wondering if you would be kind enough to post the sup/res indicator on your chart. It would be very usefull for me to use the code in an EA im currently making.

Chears in advance!

LoLo
It's the standard fib tool from MT4, with the settings changed to reflect:

0- for the 0% line (Stop Loss)

0.5- for the 50% line

1- for the 100% line (Trigger)

2-for the 200% line (Target 1)

3- for the 300% line (Target 2)

Here's a template with the fib settings on it. You know if you open the template and open the "fibo properties" and just change the fib color it will make the settings on it the new "default" settings for your platform.

Hope this helps.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl elitecombo.tpl   16 KB | 736 downloads
Is your SL my TP?
hi, Waterflame!
cci 34 cross 0 and and sma34 cross price line(or MA1) - you looking basically on a same thing (like use macd with same MAs - instead confirming they just show same thing)
but well, if you found - this set (combination) works the best for this strategy...
could you tell again what you do for filtering false signals; for flat, narrow range and chop conditions?
thank you
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cci ma 34 line.gif Size: 34 KB
Quoting Waterflame
why did you remove them kevin, i haven't yet download them to see your proposition, please give them back to us...
I misunderstood your post after I put the mandrake system up. It is now back up for you to check out. It may yeild more knowledge or it may just be a lot of extra useless indicators. Check it out and let me know what you think.

Here is a screenshot:
http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/7/...6/mandrake.gif
...
Quoting fxxx;[COLOR=black
1927602[/color]]hi, Waterflame!
cci 34 cross 0 and and sma34 cross price line(or MA1) - you looking basically on a same thing (like use macd with same MAs - instead confirming they just show same thing)
but well, if you found - this set (combination) works the best for this strategy...
could you tell again what you do for filtering false signals; for flat, narrow range and chop conditions?
thank you
Attachment 98872


[img=http://www.abload.de/thumb/macd7gf.gif]

Indeed it was my attention to synchronise the 3 Ema - 34 Sma Cross witht the CCI 34 zero line cross ( to have one confirming strong signal for entry )

After discovered this entry method of a fast but not sloppy 3 Ema entry, with a not too far on not too near at price trending 34 Sma for profits and giving just the sprerad stop loss, i needed something to have even if the market has a fake signal, to exit with profit.

CCI has this wonderfull % levels, what you can't use in Macd, Macd was made for convergence/ divergence

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/...annelindex.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...cal/082701.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp

and not like CCI for a Momentum overbought and oversold strategic tool you can use for both things, entry and exit

neither RSI with the overbought and oversold concept, even if it has entry ( and its not synchronized to our MA combination ) has no good exits

the classic stochastic is not specialized to signal entries from trend ( short term/mid term/long term) because we need an entry from the begining of the trend, and having profit of all the potentiality of it, also the exits are not very momentum price related.


about your question to the cadles, i will make in this days some different shot animations of price behaviours, so you can see the healthy mooding market good entry candles, and the to great spiking sick market candles, where i disencourage you to enter a position in this conditions.
...
Quoting behof
Hi Waterflame !

Congratulations for introducing this method.
I'm trading this for a longer time and I'm satisfied with the results.
In the long term it's not possible to run an EA because you get too many
losses in a ranging market.

I'd tested this and was not successful ;-(

So folks trade this system manually and if you could handle it by
paying attention to money management and discipline, this will be
a gold mine !!

Just my 2 cents.

P.S. Waterflame could you post the indicator which is showing market
open and close by drawing coloured vertical lines ?
Thanks in advance and happy trading ;-))

thanks behof,

i will post in a few something i have foud for an EA, even if i am not very enchated by mechanical trading, i wish to give it a try.

later
Quoting kenmania
It's the standard fib tool from MT4, with the settings changed to reflect:

0- for the 0% line (Stop Loss)

0.5- for the 50% line

1- for the 100% line (Trigger)

2-for the 200% line (Target 1)

3- for the 300% line (Target 2)

Here's a template with the fib settings on it. You know if you open the template and open the "fibo properties" and just change the fib color it will make the settings on it the new "default" settings for your platform.

Hope this helps.
kenmania,

if you allow me to say that a 3 Ema crossing 34 Sma method would maybe easier to trade for an Ea, because my self sometimes i don't trade the whole trade, and exit to cover profit with CCI exits, just to get quick money and don't to wait all the time for the finish of the trade.

According to the price near 3 Ema what even if 3 Ema reverse to the 34 Sma
will not have a great stop loss, if it continous, the profits would be very funny.

Not like if its based just of CCI, and taking axit by the 100% or 200% level, when the Trend maybe just wish to take a breath for a new ride and taking just a few of it.

Look at your best Tranding pairs at the one 1h, and count from 3 monthes before, how much stop loss trades, how much good trades with few profit, and at most count the profit of pips of the big trades, and tell me if the 3 Ema crossing 34 Sma method, with min 500$, trading 1 volume not work.
here is an EA i have found this morning in another forum

http://www.forex-tsd.com/expert-advi...-cross-ea.html

please can someone see if it works, when yes, back test the 3 Ema crossing 34 Sma, and show us the Results, because i don't have the faculty of it...

im curious about it

thanks
...

Checks and Balances?
http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/7/...6/backtest.gif


Hey WaterFlame. Here is my original idea. I did not want to use mandrake to replace waterflame.tpl. Waterflame.tpl is perfect as it is and it could not be more simple. What I was thinking about is a potential inticator/system that could give waterflame.tpl a confirmation signal on entry and exit. A system/indicator that could spot this "sick"/"slow" price action for us so we make more winning trades and can get out early if the trade is bad. I am mainly thinking about using the indicators you see at the bottom for this. This is what the updated .tpl would look like:


http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/7/...terflame22.gif


You have already made trading more simple for everyone trading your system, but recognizing price action is still a skill that takes time to master. So my question is do you know of any indicators for the noob trader to use to stay away from trading "slow/sick" markets or is it just a matter of studying the current market conditions? One flaw I can see with my idea is that it will reduce the total number of trades and will also give worse entries because the trader would have to wait for the 15m candle to close before possibly entering a trade. I will be back testing this strategy today to let you know what I find. This is a great thread Flame. I noticed most your charts you have posted are U/J 30m so this is what I will use for the test.


Thanks again.


-Kevin


PS: Would you like me to remove the mandrake files to keep your thread on track?

  • Post #137
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:20am Mar 30, 2008 10:46am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting Kevyluvu

Checks and Balances?






Hey WaterFlame. Here is my original idea. I did not want to use mandrake to replace waterflame.tpl. Waterflame.tpl is perfect as it is and it could not be more simple.


thanks man


What I was thinking about is a potential inticator/system that could give waterflame.tpl a confirmation signal on entry and exit. A system/indicator that could spot this "sick"/"slow" price action for us so we make more winning trades and can get out early if the trade is bad. I am mainly thinking about using the indicators you see at the bottom for this. This is what the updated .tpl would look like:


trust me, there is none, i have already researched about a indicator giving market moods, none banks or political administrations will give you how market moods will be ( in normal conditons, not the news events )


one question. you do everyday wake up in different conditions, happy, sad, melancolic, but just your understanding of the mood will show you what your mood is, i have simplify the market conditions psychology ( also for my self ) in this 3 moods, to simplify it, ( healthy , sick and lazy )


a healthy was described by a slow entry continuing the trend


a sick market has too large candles what can reverse against you ( dont care if it continue the trend, most of times it consolidate the market, search another pair)


and the lazy is a a slow entry continuing but not effective trending wave ( see the market condition thread )




You have already made trading more simple for everyone trading your system


i've tried to give my best and share it with you friends


but recognizing price action is still a skill that takes time to master.


Its very very easy, after reading the market condition thread, there is just one thing


- you can't know before if the market will change mood


- the only thing you can do is to watch the changing mood and identify it, than behave on it, if its a healthy one, continue, if its a sich one, try to at least having some profits, getting your spread, or the system will protect you by a little stop loss ( it was managed and included by the combination of the system, to pretoect and give more results at first )


So my question is do you know of any indicators for the noob trader to use to stay away from trading "slow/sick" markets or is it just a matter of studying the current market conditions?


- your question will be answered if you have read well what i wrote above and in the rules, you have a simple system, just take a look of the market ( take the market like a friend ) have a nice day or not, if he is on point, laugh with him, if not, let himdecharge his frustration.


One flaw I can see with my idea is that it will reduce the total number of trades and will also give worse entries because the trader would have to wait for the 15m candle to close before possibly entering a trade.


Seriously, the rules of CCI exits are made for traders who have just low capital on their balance, to get as quick and easy some money to continue real trading.


Because one time you have enough to cover your balance, and don't need anymore to think about money for the next week how to buy your daily bread,


even with some stop loss exits, and little good trades of min 10 or 30 pips, the most of time you will get the best of it, recovering your losses, and having high results.


( Dont be afraid of the candle thing, its just an advise, after reading it, you will understand, having a habit to trade the good onces. )




I will be back testing this strategy today to let you know what I find. This is a great thread Flame. I noticed most your charts you have posted are U/J 30m so this is what I will use for the test.


- The market will tell you, trade the best pairs, if you loose 2 trades with stop loss, no problem ( you will loose just your spread ), other pairs will give you highly results, just take the rules as a religion to execute.


IF signal than enter


Than wait for :


- weakening, taking now your few profits ( if you are a beginner with low capital )


- CCI 100 or 200 % reversal if you are an average trader ( with some good money on your capital )


- or wait everytime for 3 Ema - 34 Sma crosing with CCI 34 zero line crossing ( if you have enough to cover your balance on your account, because most of times the big trades will give you 70% more as you have loosing while stop loss and few profit )


thats it


Thanks again.


-Kevin



PS: Would you like me to remove the mandrake files to keep your thread on track?


no please let the post for others, to see the difference, between simple and complicated, thanks

thank you helping us with you questions
Hi WaterFlame,

Here is my slight variation of your system, MTF stochs help me filter some signals, not all, they just confirm my entries.

Here is an example, you can see the stochs (price) is moving in the other direction, therefore this would filter the signal on a 5 minute chart.

Though you have to understand, that in MTF, the candle might have closed on your current time frame, but the other time frame the candle might not have closed, therefore with back testing this filter will look good, but when actually trading it will not be easy, as you can enter trades too soon and not realise and see price go in the other direction, though WaterFlame's entries will make things more simpler, as now I have a entry signal, which I did not have before and hopefully this will be my holy grail...

If we can improve on this, then lets do it!

Regards,
Guess
Attached Image
Right...

Look at these 4 signals on the 5 min chart CADJPY.

Signal 1
I would have taken, 1hour, 30min stochs are up, 15min and 5 min, are turning up, plus we have a signal, we have a double bottom, TAKE TRADE.

Signal 2
Not taken, 5 and 15min stochs are moving down, but 1hour and 30min are still near oversold, would take more time to move down.

Signal 3
You can see 1hour and 30min showing some direction now, so we wait for a down signal.

Signal 4
Confirmation of down trend on 1hour, 30min and 15min is flat and 5 min moving down. TRADE TAKEN.

Hope this helps!

Let's improve this if we can, but I have too many indicators, as most people. Though I think we need some form of MTF approach.

Regards,
Guess
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example.JPG Size: 66 KB
Ohh by the way... this is from Spuds MTF Stoch approach, I take no credit for the MTF approach.
1 trader viewing now