GBPJPY scalpers | Page 66 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/JPY

Similar Threads

Mathematical reasons why MOST DayTraders & scalpers fail? 197 replies

Best broker for scalpers? 162 replies

Scalpers Hourly Range Indicator (TSR tweeked for scalpers) 2 replies

Scalpers Lounge: for scalpers to share thoughts, ideas, and plays 88 replies

Synergy Method For Scalpers and Scalpers Hourly Range Calculator (Based on TSR) 22 replies

Attachments: GBPJPY scalpers
Exit Attachments

GBPJPY scalpers

  • #1,301
  • Mar 28, 2008 4:12pm Mar 28, 2008 4:12pm
off of the 61.8% Fib from the high of 207.95. It will need to break lower than that to move south. 197.50 is the line. If it breaks lower than that it may drop 200 pips...or it eill range (like it has been) back to the 38.2 % Fib at 200.50 if it does not move lower than 197.50.

I am too new to understand the candles well, but what I understand is that there will be a distinct candle pattern that will signal the up or down trend.

I plan on asking some of my mentors what I am looking for this weekend so I can get my 200 pip move on Monday.

Not sure if that helps or if anybody is seeing what I see.
  • #1,302
  • Mar 28, 2008 4:22pm Mar 28, 2008 4:22pm
I think the price will range between 202 and 192 until somewhere close to April 20. Next week sometime she should make it down to ~ 194.50. Then she'll come back up the week after that but won't break the high of 201.80, but will get really close. Finally then around the 20th of April she will take a dive to break the low of 192.54. I'll attach the chart I posted yesterday with this strange repeating patten thats been going on so you can all see what I'm talking about.

Have a good weekend everyone!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: patterns.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #1,303
  • Mar 28, 2008 4:23pm Mar 28, 2008 4:23pm
The move today was very bearish for 2 reasons:

1)we broke the bottom of the falling wedge
2) within the wedge there are 2 other patterns that have failed , a double top and an ascending triangle.

I think we will see 500 pips lower by end of next week .

3 hour chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart18.JPG Size: 132 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,304
  • Mar 28, 2008 4:26pm Mar 28, 2008 4:26pm
Quoting Scotty B
I think the price will range between 202 and 192 until somewhere close to April 20. Next week sometime she should make it down to ~ 194.50. Then she'll come back up the week after that but won't break the high of 201.80, but will get really close. Finally then around the 20th of April she will take a dive to break the low of 192.54. I'll attach the chart I posted yesterday with this strange repeating patten thats been going on so you can all see what I'm talking about.

Have a good weekend everyone!

Scotty .. just read your bio ....

I hope you do not sky dive while performing operations !!!
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,305
  • Mar 28, 2008 4:31pm Mar 28, 2008 4:31pm
We'll certainly see malcomb! Have a good one man!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pattern02.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #1,306
  • Mar 28, 2008 4:33pm Mar 28, 2008 4:33pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Scotty .. just read your bio ....

I hope you do not sky dive while performing operations !!!
Might get a little messy eh?
  • #1,307
  • Mar 28, 2008 5:15pm Mar 28, 2008 5:15pm
Hi Malcomb,

Thanks a lot for the view and for all the analysis for this week. have a great weekend.

Thanks everyone for sharing your views on analysis. See all of you on Sunday/Monday and enjoy your weekend.
  • #1,308
  • Mar 28, 2008 5:32pm Mar 28, 2008 5:32pm
[IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/DK143WVC/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot-4.jpg[/IMG][IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/DK143WVC/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot-5.jpg[/IMG]60 Min

It is looking very soft to me for Monday
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cht10c9.gif Size: 54 KB
  • #1,309
  • Mar 28, 2008 8:25pm Mar 28, 2008 8:25pm
I was analyzing this chart and noticed something pretty interesting...If you look at the Head and Shoulders and the Wedge in the charts below, you will see that the target in both the formations (according to dow) is very close.In my opinion this could make 186.xx a solid target.What would you experts say?

http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/7...pywedgebt3.jpg
http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/7259/hesyv1.jpg
  • #1,310
  • Mar 29, 2008 12:06pm Mar 29, 2008 12:06pm
Kuster,
I agree but I think it will go to sub 180.
See my previous post.
Stew
  • #1,311
  • Mar 29, 2008 1:45pm Mar 29, 2008 1:45pm
Quoting stewrigh
Kuster,
I agree but I think it will go to sub 180.
See my previous post.
Stew
I agree with you...But just to assure that at least 186 is a safe target.I believe it will hit 180 either.
  • #1,312
  • Mar 29, 2008 3:27pm Mar 29, 2008 3:27pm
I'll throw my two cents in here. Right now I'm saying we should see 195.30ish, it could definitely go lower, but right now it's tough to say. Probably some consolidation at the 195 level before it decides on which way to go though.
  • #1,313
  • Mar 29, 2008 7:48pm Mar 29, 2008 7:48pm
There are 2 possible scenarios , that we will have to wait until Sunday to see which plays out

1) 197.5 forms a double bottom and we retrace up to 50% of the move form Thursday / Friday at 199.62

2) we drop under support and continue to the downside. with targets of :

197.22
196.33
195.36
193.78


I am favouring scenario 1 at the moment due to the rapid rsi being oversold on 30 , 60 and 2 hour time frames , unless there us any bad news out on Sunday , this is the most likely scenario.

We dropped out of the bottom of the falling wedge and have yet to test it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy60.png Size: 237 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,314
  • Mar 30, 2008 2:06am Mar 30, 2008 2:06am
Quoting malcolmb14
There are 2 possible scenarios , that we will have to wait until Sunday to see which plays out

1) 197.5 forms a double bottom and we retrace up to 50% of the move form Thursday / Friday at 199.62

2) we drop under support and continue to the downside. with targets of :

197.22
196.33
195.36
193.78


I am favouring scenario 1 at the moment due to the rapid rsi being oversold on 30 , 60 and 2 hour time frames , unless there us any bad news out on Sunday , this is the most likely scenario.

We dropped out of the bottom of the falling wedge and have yet to test it.

Attachment

Hi Malcomb! I had a qs regarding this last statment...you say we are "yet" to test the falling wedge, what does it mean? is it regular for the price to test the wedge after breaking out of it?? although i have been trading patterns for a while the falling wedge is still new to me...can you kindly explain?
I believe . . .
  • #1,315
  • Mar 30, 2008 4:53am Mar 30, 2008 4:53am
Quoting malcolmb14
There are 2 possible scenarios , that we will have to wait until Sunday to see which plays out

1) 197.5 forms a double bottom and we retrace up to 50% of the move form Thursday / Friday at 199.62

2) we drop under support and continue to the downside. with targets of :

197.22
196.33
195.36
193.78


I am favouring scenario 1 at the moment due to the rapid rsi being oversold on 30 , 60 and 2 hour time frames , unless there us any bad news out on Sunday , this is the most likely scenario.

We dropped out of the bottom of the falling wedge and have yet to test it.

Attachment
Malcomb thank you for your analysis, what do you think about
USDCHF and GBPCHF for next week?
  • #1,316
  • Mar 30, 2008 7:42am Mar 30, 2008 7:42am
Quoting malcolmb14
There are 2 possible scenarios , that we will have to wait until Sunday to see which plays out

1) 197.5 forms a double bottom and we retrace up to 50% of the move form Thursday / Friday at 199.62

2) we drop under support and continue to the downside. with targets of :

197.22
196.33
195.36
193.78


I am favouring scenario 1 at the moment due to the rapid rsi being oversold on 30 , 60 and 2 hour time frames , unless there us any bad news out on Sunday , this is the most likely scenario.

We dropped out of the bottom of the falling wedge and have yet to test it.

Attachment
So on your chart the GReen verticle bands at the bottom of your chart represents oversold, And the Red represents overbought? WHich is what that RSI tells you, over 70 is overbought and under 30 is oversold right?

My analysis agrees with yours for once. I think we have firm support at
197.50. And am a fool for not shorting it down to these levels as you said it was going down and even I said it was going down but didnt sell any and missed 120 pips. I only made about 100 pips friday and about 500 on thursday. So I ended up 6 pips down for the week

I carried a few small long losers over the weekend and am hoping for a rise to 200.60 But I agree with you as my reanalysis after your also tell me it is most likely to only recover to 199.60 before dipping down again.

THis coming week, I am likely going to start going short again, after we get back up to 199.60.

Only time will tell thanks for your analysis!

Elijah
  • #1,317
  • Mar 30, 2008 8:17am Mar 30, 2008 8:17am
Quoting malcolmb14
There are 2 possible scenarios , that we will have to wait until Sunday to see which plays out

1) 197.5 forms a double bottom and we retrace up to 50% of the move form Thursday / Friday at 199.62

2) we drop under support and continue to the downside. with targets of :

197.22
196.33
195.36
193.78


I am favouring scenario 1 at the moment due to the rapid rsi being oversold on 30 , 60 and 2 hour time frames , unless there us any bad news out on Sunday , this is the most likely scenario.

We dropped out of the bottom of the falling wedge and have yet to test it.

Attachment
So buddy, what would you do if you had a short at 197.82 (like me)?I'm expecting a opening gap today.
  • #1,318
  • Mar 30, 2008 10:17am Mar 30, 2008 10:17am
Quoting ghous
Hi Malcomb! I had a qs regarding this last statment...you say we are "yet" to test the falling wedge, what does it mean? is it regular for the price to test the wedge after breaking out of it?? although i have been trading patterns for a while the falling wedge is still new to me...can you kindly explain?

When ever a pattern , or some form of support is broken down 90% of the time the price will come back and restest the breakout. This breakout level could be something like a whole number 2.00 gor gbp for example , or a 50 sma on a higher time frame like daily or 8 hour.

Sorry that pattern was not a falling wedge , it is symmetrical triangle.

see here for patterns
http://www.trending123.com/patterns/..._triangle.html

I have used this trending 1-2-3.com for stocks in the past ..not a bad site
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,319
  • Mar 30, 2008 10:30am Mar 30, 2008 10:30am
Quoting rrram2
So on your chart the GReen verticle bands at the bottom of your chart represents oversold, And the Red represents overbought? WHich is what that RSI tells you, over 70 is overbought and under 30 is oversold right?

My analysis agrees with yours for once. I think we have firm support at
197.50. And am a fool for not shorting it down to these levels as you said it was going down and even I said it was going down but didnt sell any and missed 120 pips. I only made about 100 pips friday and about 500 on thursday. So I ended up 6 pips down for the week

I carried a few small long losers over the weekend and am hoping for a rise to 200.60 But I agree with you as my reanalysis after your also tell me it is most likely to only recover to 199.60 before dipping down again.

THis coming week, I am likely going to start going short again, after we get back up to 199.60.

Only time will tell thanks for your analysis!

Elijah

Yes my number 1 indicator is rsi , however I always consider the trend on the higher time frames , and try to trade with the trend.

I use linear regression channels on all time frames , these are awesome

I also use both fib retracements and fib expansions alot.

In addition I completely understand the relationship between the markets and the forex. for example on Friday there is no way you should have been going long as the dj and gbpjpy were moving hand in hand. The dj was bearish from open.

Here is th 5 min form Friday. I can understand why someone would be eager to trade the range both side before the breakdown , however in reality until that upper channel line was broken we were in a down trend and you would have had much better success only shorting off the top of the range.

Also there was a very distinct double top off 200.5

Friday was a great day to wait for all the news to pass and then trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy01.png Size: 235 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,320
  • Mar 30, 2008 10:39am Mar 30, 2008 10:39am
Quoting Küster
So buddy, what would you do if you had a short at 197.82 (like me)?I'm expecting a opening gap today.
Sorry to be so harsh , but i would not be shorting so close to major support before a close on the weekend. Instead i would have waited it out till Sunday and then seen what the market gave me.

I think you may see that gap , but to the upside.

Higher level time frames are pointing to a bounce. I expect 199.82 to be test of bottom of that triangle and 50% fib retracement of 201.71 to 197.22 however it could only test 38.2% at 199.12.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy02.png Size: 211 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
3 traders viewing now