GBPJPY scalpers

don't forget ... end of Japanese financial year on Monday

Look like that is a tough line lay at 200.5

It's hit the 50% fib line three times.......

I posted this in another thread, but thought I'd post here too in case you think it's interesting.

Seems like everyone is short below 200 and long after 200. Just goes to show what round numbers can do in this market. But look at over 200. The majority of longs there are astounding.

Also just read this from UBS FX Strategy and thought I'd share:

"There was a plethora of comments from Japanese officials this morning, the upshot of which make it seem increasingly unlikely that Japan would consider intervention. BoJ's Suda said that "it's natural that the central bank has an interest rate hike at the back of its mind" although acknowledged that "it's difficult to tighten money when the economy is weakening". BoJ's Nishimura however said that the bank will continue to "adjust rates" if the economic recovery continues with price stability. Nishimura is clearly referring to the need to tightening rates, without actually saying as such - perhaps reflecting a desire to avoid making comments that could attract political criticism. The OIS market however continues to judge the risks as skewed to lower rates, pricing in 15bp of rate cuts over the upcoming 12 months. However, for now the BoJ has not adopted an easing bias, and hence the yen remains supported by monetary policy. More significantly, Finance Minister Nukaga acknowledged that from a long-term perspective a strong yen may have its benefits. This suggests that MoF remains only preoccupied with the speed of movements in the FX markets, and will not be drawing a "line in the sand" for any specific level of USDJPY. Nukaga also commented on FX reserves, saying that losses on Japan's reserves are around Y18.6 tn if USDJPY is at 100 yen. We cannot recall a finance minister commenting explicitly on the returns of reserves before. If Japan was to diversify out of the US dollar they would lose even more money by pushing the US dollar lower, so his message seems consistent with not disrupting reserve allocations for now."

Ok, so my economics accumen is not where it needs to be, but I'm working on it. Anyways, if they're losing 18.6 trillion yen at 100 I'm sure they're going to want get out of this some how and switch to another currency such as Euro. So how would they do that? I figure they'd want to at least break even so we should rally past 100 then they'd be selling off the dollar (in stages) and buy something else like Euro's (I'm just throwing out Euro's)?

Also, I guess the other implication is it's too late for them to do anything b/c they're in the hole, and if this is the case, then what will prevent the Yen from going lower? We are in a downtrend already and supposedly the markets have priced in the expected 15 point cut over the next 12 months. If that's the case the dollar should have rallied already.

Or does BoJ have enough capital to buy dollars up to past the 100 level where they're breaking even and everyone is thinking the uptrend has begun and then they sell off dollars in a bull trap? Hmmmm....Is my thinking on track here or am I way off base?

So thats only the half of it. GDP is coming out in a hour or so.
Forcast .6% previous .6% This one is touchy. If it comes out .6% should have little to no effect but if it comes out at .7% or higher GJ should rocket back up those 5 it lost.

I'm long with a couple at 199.59 and hope this GDP doesn't kick GJ price down as I am about even ATm on pips on this trade and for the week now
I am only down about 82 pips.

Hopeing for better trading results next week

Elijah

finally closed on 60 minute below 199.44

if the numbers in an hour are even a bit down...this thing is going to drop like a stone

I am as usual bullish and looking for recovery back to test 200.40-200.70
and once broken 201.25 is next.

GU will bounce back up and retrace all those loses over night due to the housing and GDP news.

UJ is actually looking a little bullish too, which makes more bigger GJ moves up.

I am so sure on the next GJ move up I might even get in with some fat pips like M. But everyone had me sweating the short side overnight, which hardly panned out. I am glad though. Better safe than sorry.

But seriously relook at your shorts, you go short here and you will be sitting on it a long time or end up losing your shorts.

Sounds like you want it to drop like a stone, but thats not what makes price move. Share your chart with us and get a little deeper into it and explain to us why its going donw instead of just a one bar analysis and a close below blah blah.

Its like I have said before about closed minds. When your mind is closed
and you get in some false notions about forex, it costs you far too much in the long wrong to think that if such and such then always the result will be
blah blah. Sorry not true. You have to evaluate dozens of things and sure can't base your trading on just one thing.

Just my 2 cents worth

So it did not drop

I could care less which way it goes. I just want pips

at daily tf i noticed a flat top triangle pattern... is it true that this is a continuation pattern for bearish? pls help me to clear my doubt. or is it a break out pattern for long ?

what a range have been sell from pivot for the 3rd times .. small pips only like 5-8 but it will be nice if this continue till day end lol

Future Dow is nicely bounced from the trendline support.

What is pulling this pair down is weakness on GU. I think it's matter of time for Geppy to trend to the upside. Hopefully soon ..

You were absolutely right yesterday for your short, then why you went long again? I am not getting you.

In fact I went short when it hit 200 mark and still short.

What this pattern mean ? i know nothing abt pattern hope some1 in FF can tell me

i m out of my shorts .. and looking to reload long soon !

Goodbadmas

This is a bullish pattern, you can read more here: http://harmonictrader.com/

I would like to see GJ continue up cuz I'm Long

Thx alot bro but bull ? kind of conflict with current PA

Just checking to see if anyone has been trading the breakout method that was mentioned early on in this thread and was wondering how it was working for you. Anyone?

Is that based on a mirror image to help determine future price?
Or are you at all farmiliar with it?