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  • #1,201
  • Mar 27, 2008 4:30pm Mar 27, 2008 4:30pm
Quoting SimonJ
As far as I know, and that's why I stay in my very bad short position, is that the trend is down on weekly/monthly, because of fundamentals. But on the shorter terms we can still see higher price. I'm expecting price to break either up or down somewhere at the ellipse I painted here.
Lets cross our finger together Simon coz i do have a bad sell pos at 197.7 as well. I still waiting for GJ to hit 201.5 (she hitted that while i while sleeping )
n then cash out my buy since 197.9 n short her from 201
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Sometimes in order to see the light, you have to risk the dark
  • #1,202
  • Mar 27, 2008 4:37pm Mar 27, 2008 4:37pm
wow, the candles on your 4h look different than the ones on mine. I see what your talking about- price breaking those long term trendlines. Thanks,I'm learning something everyday from you guys. I have been silently watching this forum for about a week and have learned so much. Thanks for attempting to help us newbies out.

Griz
  • #1,203
  • Mar 27, 2008 4:39pm Mar 27, 2008 4:39pm
anyone going long now or waiting until 200.50?
  • #1,204
  • Mar 27, 2008 4:42pm Mar 27, 2008 4:42pm
Looking at the charts, it seems that gbp/jpy may see 198.xx and then probable run to 202.xx before another downside.
  • #1,205
  • Mar 27, 2008 4:45pm Mar 27, 2008 4:45pm
Anyway I will probably go long at 198 if 197.60 holds and go short at 202.xx if seen.
  • #1,206
  • Mar 27, 2008 5:08pm Mar 27, 2008 5:08pm
Quoting zebra7860
Hello,

I am currently at work and noticed something very interesting on my charts. We are entering a new BULL phase.

From the methods of arcs, mirror images, etc, I can see a longer term target of 207 ish.

Does this mean that it will go up to 207 straight? Absolutely not. It simply means that after meandering up, then retracing, then back up, etc, we shall eventually hit 207. I have not had a chance to calculate targets on a smaller time frame till later this evening, but at 13:23 PST today, the price of 199.93 represents a good value.

Too many people are expecting a drop, but the drop that occured yesterday was a truncated one and that was the end of it.

Yesterday I also said that there was an upmove coming and it did that. Today I am saying that the technicals do not lie. I don't care or want to explain why it's gonna happen. It should happen.

I will be going long soon. The first legitimate target should be the 201.50.

Rememeber the W.D. Gann rule of breaking the trendline after touching it 3 times? The 4th time will do so with a vengeance !!

My 2 c

Al
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080327/D8VM0BPO1.html

How can there be a major move up with this hanging over everyone's head?
  • #1,207
  • Edited 5:44pm Mar 27, 2008 5:29pm | Edited 5:44pm
Holy Cow batman.....S/R Is amazing when you get it right (for once)...Bounced off of the 199.48 and up for 70+ pips......too bad I just got home and missed it...lol

Thanks for the thread and the trading thoughts M..

Billser

EDIT:

Can you guys stop posting for a couple of days...your making me have to read a lot more than I'm used to.....

Seriously...great thread............
M what happened to the trading room?

Quoting Billser
Hi M,

Looks like a lot on congestion at the 199.48 area. The 100 sma the 200 sma a support area and the daily pivot just below that at 199.19
It's All About Attitude ...
  • #1,208
  • Mar 27, 2008 5:57pm Mar 27, 2008 5:57pm
Quoting Billser
Holy Cow batman.....S/R Is amazing when you get it right (for once)...Bounced off of the 199.48 and up for 70+ pips......too bad I just got home and missed it...lol

Thanks for the thread and the trading thoughts M..

Billser

EDIT:

Can you guys stop posting for a couple of days...your making me have to read a lot more than I'm used to.....

Seriously...great thread............
M what happened to the trading room?
Bill getting something better up and running within next week or .. will keep you all posted.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,209
  • Mar 27, 2008 6:02pm Mar 27, 2008 6:02pm
Hi Malcomb,

Looking forward to that. Thanks
  • #1,210
  • Mar 27, 2008 6:11pm Mar 27, 2008 6:11pm
No Worries M...

and congrats on the 8000 pips............You must be getting real close to having over One million pips for the year.......

Quoting malcolmb14
Bill getting something better up and running within next week or .. will keep you all posted.
It's All About Attitude ...
  • #1,211
  • Mar 27, 2008 6:36pm Mar 27, 2008 6:36pm
50 sma on 60 min holding up as support very well , also close to 199.5.

RSI says it might break down later , but there is also a double bottom right on the rsi , so conflicting signals.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,212
  • Mar 27, 2008 7:17pm Mar 27, 2008 7:17pm
Look so tempting to short but i will wait
Sometimes in order to see the light, you have to risk the dark
  • #1,213
  • Mar 27, 2008 7:23pm Mar 27, 2008 7:23pm
Quoting johnchia
Look so tempting to short but i will wait
If you can wait till 199.2 that would be a better place to sell .

Lots of support on the 199.5 to 199.2 zone , incuding 61.8 % fib reatracement and 50 sma on both the 60 min and 2 hour
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,214
  • Mar 27, 2008 7:28pm Mar 27, 2008 7:28pm
Quoting malcolmb14
If you can wait till 199.2 that would be a better place to sell .

Lots of support on the 199.5 to 199.2 zone , incuding 61.8 % fib reatracement and 50 sma on both the 60 min and 2 hour
Thx for advice bro
Sometimes in order to see the light, you have to risk the dark
  • #1,215
  • Mar 27, 2008 7:29pm Mar 27, 2008 7:29pm
We have bearish divergences on 1&2 hr charts the 50 sma on 1hr is curling down if we break 199.50 we may have a little ride down
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Think BIG!
  • #1,216
  • Mar 27, 2008 7:30pm Mar 27, 2008 7:30pm
Quoting malcolmb14
If you can wait till 199.2 that would be a better place to sell .

Lots of support on the 199.5 to 199.2 zone , incuding 61.8 % fib reatracement and 50 sma on both the 60 min and 2 hour
I am looking to long instead, if hourly chart is starting to trend up ..it may be the timing to enter long
  • #1,217
  • Mar 27, 2008 7:32pm Mar 27, 2008 7:32pm
Quoting griz
The 4h chart has a bearish doji followed by a bearish divergence candle. Stoc is crossing down, but everyone is talking going up. Has fundamentals changed? Or are the technicals sometimes to be disreguarded? I'm new to this forum and to forex and not trying to make fun of anyone's predictions just tring to learn.
The Fast Stoc is about 50 it could go either way.

It is still quite a bit above the 50SMA

The MacD is flip flopping.

Looking at the curve of the 50SMA it seems to have turned UP within the last few bars.

Yes it is in a ST downtrend. MT the trend appears to be up and LT is probably still down. So in the MT I like long and will wait if it has to go down a few more pips before it resumes northward.

I guess it could go either way. And one could argue either side. And for me
240MIN is generally pretty long term. I use mainly 60min 15min and 2 minute.
SOmetimes I now look at 3 as it may be better than 2. And occasionally I look at the 5.

So it sure isn't obviously going down as it has been going like a juggernaut
for weeks it seems and illogically goes in directions you couldn't imagine it would.

So Based on the 240 I am still bullish, I'm only long with a couple. But I am ready to buy a few more in the dips.
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  • #1,218
  • Mar 27, 2008 7:38pm Mar 27, 2008 7:38pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Why ???? as long as the price is under its 50 sma on 5 , 10 and 15 only short the rallies = 100% success rate no draw downs.

The trend is your friend....

sure you can play both ways , but the chances of the bottom falling out of it are higher than it breaking out to the upside right now.
But I am long lower now with less lots. It is heading south suddenly slightly ATM.
  • #1,219
  • Mar 27, 2008 7:43pm Mar 27, 2008 7:43pm
Quoting Küster
But do you think it would be safe to keep my 199.65 short?
I'd say TP @ 198.00 or 197.60 But I could never wait that long, I'd have to SQR it at 11-50 pips or so.

Patience...she is going down. But what goes down must come up.
  • #1,220
  • Mar 27, 2008 7:50pm Mar 27, 2008 7:50pm
Quoting griz
anyone going long now or waiting until 200.50?
It IS going down NOW! it will continue to go down for a bit to test lows but at some point it is going to stop going down and reverse and go back up.

So if you were going to go long I would think you would ideally liek to go long at the bottom or at the LOWEST price you can.

Sometimes when you wait is for confirmation of a breakout.

But I don't think of this as a breakout. It is going to dip down then stop and reverse. Pefect place to get in long is WHERE it reverses, I think
but you never know where the bottom is. But I am a much riskier trader than most. But I am playing $1 a pip not $100 so no worries.
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